Junior Ladies Short Program

[sky_fly20]

I think some of it might depend on how she places at Junior Worlds. If she wins a medal she's guaranteed a spot on the Grand Prix, plus she has one of the top scores of the season which also gives her a Grand Prix. She's right up there in scores ahead of Sotnikova and just behind Lipnitskaia and Tuktamisheva.

definitely Garcie should definitely get to go to another junior grand prix season and she can win the junior grand prix final
and I see her getting on the podium with Lipnitskaya and Tuktamysehva at junior worlds

Flattfan, how can you compare JUNIORS to Senior ladies in terms of presentation and ice coverage? There are reasons why they are in Juniors, even if they have the big tricks and often times it's the presentation side of things. Also, I like your nitpicking of Gracie when many of the same criticisms could be said of Rachel (not completely stretched line, speed not the fastest in the group (this wasn't her most "free" performance of this program by far, etc)

Sounds to me like you are worried that a couple of these girls will give Rachel a run for her money if she stays in and focuses on skating.

, well I like that the US juniors are stepping it up.
and definitely these girls have a lot of potential and will be giving the senior ladies a run for their money

[kwanatic]

I think it'd be good for Gracie to do juniors for one more year. She has hardly any international experience, but if she medals at jr. worlds this year and then dominates the JGP next year, she'll start the 2012-2013 season as a top prospect heading into Soichi.

She has a lot left to work on (presentation, lines, musicality, artistry, etc.), so it'd be good to see her take some time to develop it. But seeing as how the US is desperate for some kind of star, I wouldn't be surprised if she makes the jump to senior next year.

[FlattFan]

Flattfan, how can you compare JUNIORS to Senior ladies in terms of presentation and ice coverage? There are reasons why they are in Juniors, even if they have the big tricks and often times it's the presentation side of things. Also, I like your nitpicking of Gracie when many of the same criticisms could be said of Rachel (not completely stretched line, speed not the fastest in the group (this wasn't her most "free" performance of this program by far, etc)

Sounds to me like you are worried that a couple of these girls will give Rachel a run for her money if she stays in and focuses on skating.

For the record, Gracie would NEVER go work with Moskvina. If anything, I would bet she goes to Tom Dickson (who her main coach has a lot of respect for and likes a lot of the interesting work he's done) or Suzie Wynn (who's local) for choreography. She's been focusing on the tech side of things and being clean and consistent with the hard tricks and she's DONE that...

I did not compare Juniors to Seniors. I just said they are all lacking. Which should explain why I think they all overscored.
Just because I like Rachael doesn't mean she doesn't have any weaknesses. She has many. But her technical contents and consistency were very impressive as a junior. Something Gracie has yet to show.

I'm not worried. When their time come, they will replace the aging seniors. That's the way it is.

I paid Gracie the biggest complements. If Adelina is to Mao as Liza is to Yuna circa 2009-2010, then Gracie is definitely Joannie Rochette if she keeps her jumps and gets the right coach like Moskvina. I mentioned Moskvina because she pays attentions to every little details, from the opening pose to hand placement in every move. Moskvina wouldn't take her anyway.

[Mrs. P]

For me, I think you have to take Gracie for where she's at and ignore the hype that people seem to be imposing on her.

I think her sheer consistency is incredible. She's actually upped her competitiveness since her summer competitions through her JGP event, through qualifying competitions to now. The fact that she is able to go out there and skate the program — with a higher level of technical content — clean each time I've seen her is something to admire. If she keeps doing that, she will be one to beat, no doubt.

Flattfan, you did compare Gracie's lutz as not being as big as Tonya Harding's or Miki Ando. I think height and such will come with time. I still think they are big relative to the people she's competing with — and even some of the seniors who will be competing later this week. She also does not have a flutz and she has great flow out of the jumps.

I think her score was reasonable. Most of her score came on the TES side and she didn't even hit all her levels on all the elements. She benefited from a clean — albeit tight, as Doris said — program that earned her mostly +1 and +2 on GOE. Her PCS was the highest, but hardly revolutionary — mid 6s is about right for a junior skater.

As I said, she is likely win this competition easily and could even contend for a medal at JW with what she's got now. She can work on everything else that will make her a viable senior lady when she gets home.

[Mirunna]

It's a bit too much to talk about Gracie's "sheer consistency" being incredible. Adelina was incredibly consistent last season(with LOTS of international competition, plus junior worlds where she was amazing) and look how hard is this season for her. Yes, it's great that so far she is skating well but the pressure is just starting to build around her. Stop making her the next big thing. She might be. For what it's worth, her technique is amazing and she has all the chances to make it to the top pretty soon. But it's too early to talk about her consistency. She was not exposed to much international competitions. I would not bet my money on Julia Lipnitskaya either, for example, even though she skated clean in every competition she entered, a step-out or an edge call pretty much being her biggest mistakes(two JGP, JGPF and Russian nationals). Who knows if next season she starts falling all over the place.
With that being said I wish her all the best in the LP. She is the only one with a real chance to stop a russian sweep at Junior worlds. Go Gracie!

[mskater93]

I just don't understand the "overscored" comment and it comes across as sour grapes. Gracie had a BV of over 30 points for her TES and it would have been more like 31+ if she had gotten the levels on the CCoSp and FSSp (both graded L3 due to short rotations in a position). She didn't get outrageous GOEs - a little bit here and there on each element to give her an additional 4 points over 7 elements (an average of ~+0.5 GOE per element). For a solid (but not her best) outing, that is completely fair. Her PCS marks were good but not outrageous (low-mid 6's) and she didn't seem to get a "3+3 PCS bonus". It wasn't like she beat everyone by 10 points on the PCS side alone (the nearest was ~ 1 point less and I have seen both her and Hannah Miller in a competitive skate this season live and would agree an average skate from Gracie is about 1 point higher than a good skate from Hannah in PCS, she has better TR, a little more speed and bi-directional skating, and projects better).
Also, whether you like to think so or not, PCS is still a "relative" game and whoever was the first skater set a PCS "median mark" like the old 6.0 median mark. If the first skater was a "5.25" skater, then all others are judged relative to that since this is likely the first time the judges are really seeing these skaters (unlike the top international skaters where PCS seems to become a "static" number no matter what the skater puts out).
It will be interesting to see what her team decides to do after this season from a development standpoint (beyond back to working on the 3A with the hope to be able to add it this coming summer/fall). I'll be picking one of her coach's brains about where they are headed from a presentation development standpoint when he gets back.

PS: Mirunna - the biggest difference with Gracie (versus the RWBs) is she is close to done growing now (she had a big growth spurt between Regionals and Sectionals last year which affected her consistency on her jumps and between that and her mental state, she ended up 6th). Also, her method of preparation is totally different than it was. I don't think we'll see a huge decline in her consistency even as the pressure starts.

[Jammers]

I don't think Gracie has much to gain skating as a 17 year old on the JGP next year. She's already ready to challenge the big girls right now from what i saw though she has some rough edges that need to be worked on. Plus we are heading into Sochi and she needs to get out so the international judges can see what she can do. And i don't mean the judges on the JP circuit.

[Mrs. P]

It's a bit too much to talk about Gracie's "sheer consistency" being incredible. Adelina was incredibly consistent last season(with LOTS of international competition, plus junior worlds where she was amazing) and look how hard is this season for her. Yes, it's great that so far she is skating well but the pressure is just starting to build around her. Stop making her the next big thing. She might be. For what it's worth, her technique is amazing and she has all the chances to make it to the top pretty soon. But it's too early to talk about her consistency. She was not exposed to much international competitions. I would not bet my money on Julia Lipnitskaya either, for example, even though she skated clean in every competition she entered, a step-out or an edge call pretty much being her biggest mistakes(two JGP, JGPF and Russian nationals). Who knows if next season she starts falling all over the place.
With that being said I wish her all the best in the LP. She is the only one with a real chance to stop a russian sweep at Junior worlds. Go Gracie!

Since you referenced my comment — again, I evaluating Gracie where is right now, not what she could be. I'm hardly in the "Gracie's the next big thing" camp, but in the "let's look at where she is now" camp.

When I say her consistency is incredible, I'm saying this relative to how long her season has been, not relative to other skaters. Since she didn't make Nationals last year, she had to do well at summer competitions — she won Skate Detroit in July — to get a JGP spot. She did that and then won JGP Estonia. AND then she had to go back and qualify for Nationals, with a tough Midwestern sectionals field no less! (Consider that Yasmin Siraj actually withdrew from her second JGP event because she wanted to focus on qualifying competitions). It's been a really long season for Gracie and will continue to be with JW, so I simply admire that she has been able keep her competitive ante up so far.

Also I did say IF she stays consistent she will be hard to beat — not that it's foregone conclusion.

Guys, it's OK to compliment Gracie Gold for what she is doing now. I get the feeling that some people are reluctant to praise her what she is doing well RIGHT NOW because they fear that she won't live up to her potential as a senior lady in a few years. Yes it's extreme to call her "the next big thing." But it's just as extreme to not acknowledge what she has now because there is some complex of jinxing her later.

[Mirunna]

Of course it's silly to refuse to acknowledge what she managed to accomplish so far. She is a great skater and is slowly making her way up. And the fact that she is going through puberty while upgrading her jump arsenal is even more incredible. She needs to polish her skating though.
And I don't think she was overscored. Didn't she get around 60 points for her SP in her JGP event?

[mskater93]

She got 61 in her JGP (but got a L4 on her FSSp there and only L3 here), so it's not like she got a National bonus here at all...

She knows where she is and what the goal is this year (tech, tech, tech; be consistent, skate at least an 80% or 90% program every outing, land the jumps, get the levels) and has done a great job focusing on those goals. Since this spring, she has skated at: Northern Blast (May), Skate Detroit, Glacier Falls, Greater Chicagoland Fall Invitational, JPG Estonia, Midwestern Sectionals and now Nationals. In those competitions, she has been 7/7 in the SP on her 3F+3T without so much as a single down (<) on either jump or a negative GOE on the combination. That is incredible consistency for an entire season to date. She is learning to embrace the expectations versus fear them (she started to fear the expectations after finishing 4th in Novice Ladies at 2010 Nationals a little bit and it showed last season from practice to competition).

The overscored comment was in reply to Flattfan since she made it further up in this thread. With a BV of 30+, I don't know how 34+ TES and 25+ PCS is overscored. I would be grateful if Flattfan can point out exactly where she was overscored in relation to the others in the group.

She has great technique on her elements which will carry her far. In addition, she has a work ethic that is very rare for someone with this kind of talent (think about what "everyone" says about Nagasu and Lysacek - Gracie works hard like Evan did). She was in the rink in the morning before her three hardest final exams in December instead of taking that as her "off day" and skated very well through both SP and LP with that stress of school finals sitting on her. The best part, she seems to be learning the mental fortitude required to be a champion and deal with the expectations and if she puts down a clean LP here, it will really boost her confidence to push just a little more.

FWIW, Gracie is only 16 now (will be 17 late next summer).

I can't say whether she will continue to be successful in the future or if she will develop in the "right" ways to be successful in Seniors, but I certainly hope she does. It would be great to say "I knew her when..."

[FlattFan]

The overscored comment was in reply to Flattfan since she made it further up in this thread. With a BV of 30+, I don't know how 34+ TES and 25+ PCS is overscored. I would be grateful if Flattfan can point out exactly where she was overscored in relation to the others in the group.

OMG, You really have trouble reading. I SAID EVERYONE WAS OVERSCORED. I did not single her out. I wouldn't give any GOE on her lutz, maybe .5 on her axel, and .5 on her combo. In relation to the others, she's fine.

FWIW, Gracie is only 16 now (will be 17 late next summer).

I can't say whether she will continue to be successful in the future or if she will develop in the "right" ways to be successful in Seniors, but I certainly hope she does. It would be great to say "I knew her when..."

When Yuna, Mao, Carolina were 16, their SP were so impressive.
The only reason I was at the Junior event was to check her out. I'm excited for her, but there are so many things she can improve on from first view. It was that obvious.

[FlattFan]

I just don't understand the "overscored" comment and it comes across as sour grapes.

Urgh, what? Who cares about a bunch of juniors? Sour grapes? Really?

[FlattFan]

Flattfan, you did compare Gracie's lutz as not being as big as Tonya Harding's or Miki Ando. I think height and such will come with time. I still think they are big relative to the people she's competing with — and even some of the seniors who will be competing later this week. She also does not have a flutz and she has great flow out of the jumps.

Relative to the entire juniors and seniors who will be competing, her lutz is great, probably the best.
Relative to the rest of the world, it is unremarkable. When I first heard about her on here, I thought she was the second coming of Midori Ito and Tonya Harding. Seeing her LIVE, she's not even as explosive as Miki or Irina. I'm a bit disappointed.

I think her score was reasonable. Most of her score came on the TES side and she didn't even hit all her levels on all the elements. She benefited from a clean — albeit tight, as Doris said — program that earned her mostly +1 and +2 on GOE. Her PCS was the highest, but hardly revolutionary — mid 6s is about right for a junior skater.

As I said, she is likely win this competition easily and could even contend for a medal at JW with what she's got now. She can work on everything else that will make her a viable senior lady when she gets home.

She's definitely going to win. Probably can win/medal in the senior event, too.
I just hope her team polish her up. She's a diamond in the rough now.

[mskater93]

Urgh, what? Who cares about a bunch of juniors? Sour grapes? Really?

Yes, really. You've never said anything positive concerning a skater other than Rachel.

[FlattFan]

Yes, really. You've never said anything positive concerning a skater other than Rachel.

You misread several of my posts consistently, and just did so again. If you were a skater, you would be vying for a medal in most JGP events with your consistency.