Nobody will beat anybody automatically, especially at such level and such close rivalry. But Chan has a high chance of beating Takahashi, and has consistently done so in every competition since Worlds 2010. Takahashi's chances are much better in the SP portion and he did beat Chan by a fraction of a point in SC, the first match up this season. Then there was a close one in the LP in GPF. But Chan's higher TES content and higher consistency in execution in the LP make it extremely difficult for Takahashi to overtake him. It has to be a combination of Takahashi skating lights out, including landing his quads, and Chan blowing it. Then there are the patterns of progression to take into consideration. Chan usually gets his more and more challenging LP down pat at or after the GPF and hits his peak close to the end of the season whereas Takahashi tends to do his best at NHK and the Nationals, way before the final showdown. Hopefully he didn't peak at the SP of the Nationals this time. He has fallen 6 times in 2 competitions since this SP and 4CC won't be easy for him either with high altitude to contend with.Chan isn't going to beat Takahashi automatically at every competition.
My earlier comment about fallings referred to Chan's always quick recovery without loss of choreography, unlike many other skaters including Takahashi. I respect both skaters highly and would not be dragged into ridiculing either one with selective footages and juvenile mocking not befitting this forum. The above analysis is as objective as my knowledge allows and pertains to official competitions.
My criticism of Chan's SP and his programs in general concerns his relative lack of varied speed. All his field moves are brief and uncreative, insufficient to demonstrate the true ability of keeping an extended edge. He wiggles and jiggles his body and feet all the time to change edges or generate speed or maintain balance (Worst still, his wiggling and jiggling does not always match the notes of the music). Can he produce beautiful positions on the same edge for a long time? Or will his technical ability and posture and interpretation skills be exposed as a result thereof? That is a question I always have, given that he hardly gives the audience a chance to see it.
As far as Da's SP is concerned, I appreciate his innovative, extended one-foot field move right before his camel spins. And I respect his momentary stop during his footwork to reflect the nuances of music and to showcase his ability of acceleration from zero. It is a program that demonstrates varied speed, not one-dimensional albeit fast like Chan's.
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