Sochi: Men's Prediction | Golden Skate

Sochi: Men's Prediction

jettasian

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 21, 2009
I know it's way early, but I think it is interesting to see where are the Men now and how they may fair in 2014. This is my list in no particular order:

Front-runner:
Patrick Chan
Artur Gachinski
Javier Fernandez
Takahiko Kozuka
Yuzuru Hanyu
Richard Dornbush
Song Nan

In the mix:

Florent Amodio (too many front-runners are better)
Michal Breznia (too many front-runners are better)
Daisuke Takahashi (his artistry won't save him if his jumps fail him, and he will be 27)
Jeremy Abbott (always choke in big occasion, and he will be 28)
Ross Miner
Nobunari Oda (overshadowed by other Japanese men)

Past their prime:

Evgeni Plushenko
Evan Lysacek
Tomas Verner
Brian Joubert

Of course, there could be some new guys coming out of nowhere and become a threat, but only 2 years away, we should be seeing that somebody by now if he'll be a factor.

For the 7 front-runners, these 3 are the favourite to win Gold, not sure the other 4 will be ready.
Patrick Chan
Javier Fernandez
Takahiko Kozuka
 
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fscric

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 28, 2004
Way too early! But I think you have to include Johnny Weir's name since he has announced he's returning to competitive skating aiming for Sochi.
 

jettasian

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Joined
Mar 21, 2009
Way too early! But I think you have to include Johnny Weir's name since he has announced he's returning to competitive skating aiming for Sochi.

You are joking? He's coming back? Well, he and Lysacek are just talk. Even if he comes back, he's not a factor.

And yes, it's early...but not way too early. I mean there are only 2 worlds before Sochi. This world...we pretty much know the group of front-runners.
 

Violet Bliss

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 19, 2010
Way too early! But I think you have to include Johnny Weir's name since he has announced he's returning to competitive skating aiming for Sochi.

I didn't know an announcement is the qualifying protocol to compete in the Olympics. :think:
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
hmmmm. that is waay too Too Early
a lot can happen in 2 years

and not all of those in the list will be at at their peak by 2014.
 

skateluvr

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 23, 2011
And he is a contender Olympia

podium
Chan (a lock unless pronounced dead-just kidding!)

silver Hanyu

bronze, Artur Gachinski

pewter if they had one and they should at olympics- Plushenko

5th Daisuke or Evan

6th Nan Song or Javier Fernandez maybe I should switch 5th and 6th possibles...lets hear some early predictions people....:)
 
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jettasian

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 21, 2009
It doesn't matter if Weir or Lysacke show up or not, they won't be a factor. I think we pretty much see these group in Sochi.
 

pangtongfan

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Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Chan is a mortal lock for gold. If he skates clean he wins by 50-70 points, if he falls 6 to 8 times he wins by 10-20 points. So now lets move on to the rest, the silver and bronze, etc...

Silver and bronze main contenders- Takahashi, Kozuka, Hanyu, Fernandez

Silver and bronze threats (not favorites but decent chance)- Brezina, Song (will have improved by then), Gaschinski (will be Russian #1 by then even if old grandpa Plushenko continues)

Silver and bronze outside hopes: Abbott (if he makes team), Dornbush (if he improves and makes team), Amodio (if he improves)


Verner and Joubert have no chance of being contenders by then. Lysacek and Plushenko IMO wont be contenders by then if they skate. Weir, no chance of being a contender, almost none to even make U.S team, should he return. Oda has no chance to make the Japanese team unless Takahashi retires early.
 

jettasian

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Joined
Mar 21, 2009
He will be 27, unless he can keep those quads, don't think his artistic marks can help him that much. Those young guns such as Nan and Hanyu and Kozuka will probably have many quads.
 

spikydurian

Medalist
Joined
Jan 15, 2012
pewter if they had one and they should at olympics- Plushenko
:rofl:
Seriously, Plushy does stand a chance if he comes back although he will be old horse among ponies. He still has the skills and great experience. It's just how he maintain his health and injuries. Our bodies can only take so much. There will be a price to pay for pushing injuries too far. Let's see how hungry he will be to win gold in Sochi. He probably felt he was robbed of gold in 2010 Olympics so he wants to claim what was rightfully his. :think:
 

pangtongfan

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Joined
Jun 16, 2010
After seeing Europeans I would have to upgrade Plushenko to atleast an outside shot for a non gold medal in Sochi . It is too bad he didnt skate at that level in Vancouver, he would have won easily there.
 

gmyers

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 6, 2010
LOL Euro judges are not the most trustworthy judges of Plushenkos performances.
 

seniorita

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2008
Yes but Russian nationals judges are not to take seriously - he gets legend bonus( true rn are way overscored) , euros are not reliable he gets euro and legend bonus , in the other continents he gets the plushenko bonus, in any case his scores in Vancouver kept the same as Euros more or less with worse performances than Tallinn so let's say he is overscored everywhere and judges are not trustworthy when it comes to Plush. And I m really happy for overscored plushy, instead of crying loud for other overscored skaters I ll focus on his overscored marks and party:p

Sochi is way too far for predictions, in 2008 Buttle was the World Champion and Lysacek wad not even there! But I ll say Hanyu is the prodigy skater of the new generation!!!
 

gmyers

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 6, 2010
Plushenko was much better in Vancouver than in Talinn and he set a record in SP in Tallinn but in Vancouver was near a 3 way tie for first- such a horrible decision.
 

seniorita

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2008
I think in lp Tallinn he was little better,in sp I agree he was better in Vancouver, anyway my point is that gp euros or olys, he gets the same pcs, in euros 2012 all event was overscored and judges probably got excited to see him so his pcs flew to the roof, like me!:)
 

skateluvr

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 23, 2011
I think Evan can come back and do very well if he wants to. Johnny would just be the next Sasha at Nationals in 2014. the fans will want to see him skate but he won't make the team. Does he care? No, he gets the publicity and he gets back in shape doing what he does best. It is very hard to walk away from something thst is your life. Michelle would still be here if her body held up or she had won gold. She loves to skate and these guys love to skate, compete, win, have fans. It must be very lonely when you age out and the teddy bears are all for the new 16 year old. Not as bad as being a hollywood actress after 40, but the feeling is the same. It is sad and some can't won't make the transition.

If Plush wants to damage his knees that is his business. What do do think football players live with? All top athletes who stay in long suffer. Most of you will too, regardless of what you do!!!! Life is cruel. Very.
 

evangeline

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
LOL. If I recall correctly, in 2008--two years prior to the 2010 Olympics--I believe that Brian Joubert was considered the front-runner (in this very forum, no less!) for Olympic gold in Vancouver. And numerous people were stating how Evan Lysacek's career seemed so much like Michael Weiss' and was likely to continue in such a direction.

So who knows what could happen. Maybe one of the current bright young things will end up flaming out. Or suffering a serious injury like Daisuke in fall 2008. Anything can happen....
 
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