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Thread: Sochi: Men's Prediction

  1. #31
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    ...unseat the CHAN train...
    Derail.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by NMURA View Post
    I think the "quad is not essential" trend was created by the collusion of three major federations, i.e. Canada, USA and Japan around 2008. They wanted their "favorites" to be legitimate Olympic medal contenders. Very few people expected Plushenko's return at that time, therefore their main target was Joubert. Since that same period, so-called "skating skills" have been emphasized in a major way. Now three major federations (USA out, Russia in) can agree on the "quad is essential" trend. It won't change until Sochi.
    Huh? Japanese men such as Dai, Kozuka and Oda were keeping try to put quads in their programs at that time. IIRC, Daisuke did 4-3 in FP when he broke Plushenko's world record at 4CC. Then during off season,he injured his knee and had to sit out of competitions for the whole next season. But I remember he always said that he would have regretted and would have felt like he had been defeated if he had not attempted a quad in a competition.

  3. #33
    Custom Title demarinis5's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Olympia View Post
    I'm probably biased, but I like to think of Daisuke as a contender.
    I have to agree. Anyone on that list is a contender. Who knows what will happen in 2 years.

    Figure skating fans should know that what a skater does on the ice leading up to the Olympic cycle does not necessarily guarantee said skater a gold medal or a spot on the podium.
    Last edited by demarinis5; 02-04-2012 at 09:45 AM.

  4. #34
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    1. Evgeni Plushenko. Somehow, they will manage to give him his medal in his home country. Bad knees or not, he'll do 3 clean quads and won't fall.

    2. Patrick Chan. Now, one of two things will happen here.
    a. He will fall (as he often does, sadly), but this time it will actually work against him.
    b. He won't fall, he'll actually deserve to win, and Canada will launch a protest. A second gold will be given, and next year the judging point system will be completely different.

    3. Artur Gachinski
    4. Jeremy Abbott (Most will think Jeremy was better, but Artur got a home-turf advantage)
    5. Stephane Lambiel (he will come back and do surprisingly well, but based more on his reputation. May be replaced by Brian Joubert, or another "old" skater).

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poodlepal View Post
    2. Patrick Chan. Now, one of two things will happen here.
    a. He will fall (as he often does, sadly), but this time it will actually work against him.
    b. He won't fall, he'll actually deserve to win, and Canada will launch a protest. A second gold will be given, and next year the judging point system will be completely different.
    It's funny how some people can always find a way to insult Canada and Chan.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hanaka View Post
    Huh? Japanese men such as Dai, Kozuka and Oda were keeping try to put quads in their programs at that time. IIRC, Daisuke did 4-3 in FP when he broke Plushenko's world record at 4CC. Then during off season,he injured his knee and had to sit out of competitions for the whole next season. But I remember he always said that he would have regretted and would have felt like he had been defeated if he had not attempted a quad in a competition.
    More exactly, Japan has joined the "camp" after Takahashi's "comeback". They were rather optimistic about Oda and Kozuka's quad "attempts" until 2009 worlds. Takahashi could not land a single quad during the Olympic season. Oda was too conservative to be called a "quad jumper." Kozuka was the #3 man who could take every risk and fell on almost every attempt. We saw their last ditch effort at GPF in Tokyo. Takahashi and Lysacek scored almost 90 points for their quadless SP.
    Last edited by NMURA; 02-04-2012 at 11:26 AM.

  7. #37
    Custom Title DianaSelene's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poodlepal View Post
    b. He won't fall, he'll actually deserve to win, and Canada will launch a protest. A second gold will be given, and next year the judging point system will be completely different.
    I'd love to see that. Second time for Canada. Possible.

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    This strikes me as very accurate, if Hanyu keeps improving as he has (not that he needs to improve much in my eyes, but certainly to unseat the CHAN train he does). If Hanyu does keep improving, he could well be on top because I think he has the ability to master another Quad jump - the Salchow - and Patrick Chan does not. Nan Song will likely come to exceed Patrick in jumping ability as well, but won't be able to surpass him in terms of the total package.

    Takahashi and Plushenko won't be able to keep up with the younger guys ( ) and everyone else will be too inconsistent.


    But who knows!
    Who's to say Patrick won't continue to grow and improve over the next 2 years as well? I highly doubt he's reached his peak and he's very much into bettering himself through training, yoga, dance etc. I believe we still have yet to see what he's capable of performance and jump-wise. There seems to be quite a few fans of Kurt here (I'm one, he's a legend) and not only is Patrick friends with him, but he seems to really admire Kurt's style and career and would probably like to become his own version of what Kurt is (the best of both worlds I mean). I would like to think that he realizes he's not the greatest performer and that it's a work in progress. Not to take anything away from the others at all, they are all strong contenders and it's 2 years away yet so who knows what could happen. I would never want to say that anyone is a lock for gold in 2014.

  9. #39
    Skating is art, if you let it be. Blades of Passion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SGrand View Post
    Who's to say Patrick won't continue to grow and improve over the next 2 years as well? I highly doubt he's reached his peak and he's very much into bettering himself through training, yoga, dance etc. I believe we still have yet to see what he's capable of performance and jump-wise.
    He might go further with the jumps still but it's questionable since he didn't add anything to his program this year (he made it a little easier, actually). Hanyu has been doing lots of Quad Salchows like they are nothing in exhibitions. I wonder if the Gold-medal standard for Sochi is going to be 3 Quads and 2 Triple Axels; we've already seen 2 Quads and 2 Triple Axels from several of the men this past year. It all depends on people pushing Chan right now, though. He doesn't need to change his current jump layout at all if nobody can beat him at his current level.

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by SGrand View Post
    Who's to say Patrick won't continue to grow and improve over the next 2 years as well? I highly doubt he's reached his peak and he's very much into bettering himself through training, yoga, dance etc. I believe we still have yet to see what he's capable of performance and jump-wise.
    Oh, Chan will definitly get even better. I can see his improvement in terms of speed, edges (faster, bolder and more confident on the blades). And his 3A is getting more consistant as well. He doesn't need to add more technical jump this year, so he's focusing on the presentation side. I'm sure next year, we will see him trying a 4S or 4F. Who knows, if he's confident enough, he may add another 3A. It's step by step progress working toward Sochi.

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    Derail.
    Too late; that train has sailed.

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by jettasian View Post
    Oh, Chan will definitly get even better. I can see his improvement in terms of speed, edges (faster, bolder and more confident on the blades). And his 3A is getting more consistant as well. He doesn't need to add more technical jump this year, so he's focusing on the presentation side. I'm sure next year, we will see him trying a 4S or 4F. Who knows, if he's confident enough, he may add another 3A. It's step by step progress working toward Sochi.
    Exactly, he's improved since last year and this year has consistently been improving as he becomes comfortable with his LP (I guess that can really apply to all competitors lol). I agree, with how's he's doing, he doesn't have to add more jumps, that can come for next season. I would love to eventually see a 2nd 3A from him since it seems to be coming along nicely, but I really really want him to keep working on his presentation and artistry. Not saying he doesn't have it, I adore watching him, but he's already come so far and I want more :D. That comes with experience and life and just gaining confidence though and you can already see that happening with him.

  13. #43
    Custom Title mmcdermott's Avatar
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    Patrick and his team are also very good at identifying and fixing any weaknesses. Including the little things (like "starfish" hands). And they're doing that now when he's winning anyway.

    Anyway, I think the mens field is going to be very interesting over the next few years. There are so many skaters who could contend, if they can improve in one or two key areas (either consistency or component marks for most). I can think of quite a lot of men who could be medal contenders in a few years (Chan, 3 Japanese, 2 Russians, Nan Song, Javier Fernandez, Jeremy Abbott) - that's 9 right there, without even talking about guys like Brezina and Amodio who you'd think would crack the top-10. Super exciting!

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by SGrand View Post
    Exactly, he's improved since last year and this year has consistently been improving as he becomes comfortable with his LP (I guess that can really apply to all competitors lol). I agree, with how's he's doing, he doesn't have to add more jumps, that can come for next season. I would love to eventually see a 2nd 3A from him since it seems to be coming along nicely, but I really really want him to keep working on his presentation and artistry. Not saying he doesn't have it, I adore watching him, but he's already come so far and I want more :D. That comes with experience and life and just gaining confidence though and you can already see that happening with him.
    I believe Chan was supposed to try 4S at National. He changed his plan I guess 1, he doesn't need it, and 2, would rather concentrate on the presentation. Smart move because he really doesn't need another quad for now as long as he can skate clean. Next year will be a different story.

    By 2014, I'm sure most of the men who will be considered a contender will have quads already. Unless Dai and Abbott have their quads, they may be overshadowed by the young guns. They can still be on the podium, must not sure about gold. As for Plushy, unless it's political judging, I don't think he has any chance.
    Last edited by jettasian; 02-04-2012 at 11:05 PM.

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkateFiguring View Post
    Too late; that train has sailed.
    Muah SkateFiguring.

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