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Thread: Senior Pairs Free Skate

  1. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by DianaSelene View Post
    What B/L will lose in TES, they will have much higher PCS than D/C.
    B/L skated their best in the TEB 2011 LP, and their PCS 60.51
    D/C skated average in the SA 2011 LP, and their PCS 56.42

    D/C can beat B/L by more than 4 points in TES.

  2. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    D/R vs D/C is a tougher conundrum. D/R have a major base value advantage over D/C, the PCS will likely be close, and even if you give GOE to D/C, I don't think it's a walk in the park, like you describe FlattFan. 4CC will be interesting, though.
    I think if D/C skated like they did yesterday, it would be hard for D/R to beat them. D/C's PCS were not so good because they were not clean earlier in the year. The international judges haven't seen that kind of performance yet.

  3. #93
    Spiral Lover tulosai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    B/L skated their best in the TEB 2011 LP, and their PCS 60.51
    D/C skated average in the SA 2011 LP, and their PCS 56.42

    D/C can beat B/L by more than 4 points in TES.
    While you can't compare across competitions, and it was an all European panel, B/L just got 63.09 in PCS at Euros. As someone else said they will also get higher GOEs on their lifts and twists. I really am confident that they will beat D/C unless they mess up several elements and D/C are perfect.

  4. #94
    Spiral Lover tulosai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    I think if D/C skated like they did yesterday, it would be hard for D/R to beat them. D/C's PCS were not so good because they were not clean earlier in the year. The international judges haven't seen that kind of performance yet.
    I acknowledge that this is potentially a closer call than (in my mind anyway) D/C and B/L. However, D/R have a major advantage in base value, prettier lifts, and more international experience. If both teams go clean, D/C won't beat them. A perfect D/C could potentially beat a flawed D/R, though. I guess we'll see.

    ETA: Sorry for the double post.

  5. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by tulosai View Post
    While you can't compare across competitions, and it was an all European panel, B/L just got 63.09 in PCS at Euros. As someone else said they will also get higher GOEs on their lifts and twists. I really am confident that they will beat D/C unless they mess up several elements and D/C are perfect.
    Like I said, if D/C repeated their LP at Worlds, and B/L missed the jumps, D/C would beat them.

  6. #96
    Custom Title DianaSelene's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Like I said, if D/C repeated their LP at Worlds, and B/L missed the jumps, D/C would beat them.
    And my point is that if D/C repeat their LP at worlds, and B/L miss the jumps, fall on their throw jumps, and have a bad lift, then D/C will beat them.

  7. #97
    Spiral Lover tulosai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DianaSelene View Post
    And my point is that if D/C repeat their LP at worlds, and B/L miss the jumps, fall on their throw jumps, and have a bad lift, then D/C will beat them.

  8. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by DianaSelene View Post
    And my point is that if D/C repeat their LP at worlds, and B/L miss the jumps, fall on their throw jumps, and have a bad lift, then D/C will beat them.
    Hehe, you think B/L will need to miss both jumps, fall on both throws, have a bad lift for a perfect D/C to beat them?
    No need to look further than Skate America 2011. D/C missed one jump. B/L missed both jumps and stepped out on one of the throw or something and lost.
    If D/C skated like they did, B/L can't afford to miss both jumps and place above them. B/L aren't K/S, V/T, S/S. They don't have 2 fall advantage over anyone else. B/L would be delusional to think they can stay in the top 10 with that kind of performance.

  9. #99
    Custom Title DianaSelene's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Hehe, you think B/L will need to miss both jumps, fall on both throws, have a bad lift for a perfect D/C to beat them?
    No need to look further than Skate America 2011. D/C missed one jump. B/L missed both jumps and stepped out on one of the throw or something and lost.
    If D/C skated like they did, B/L can't afford to miss both jumps and place above them. B/L aren't K/S, V/T, S/S. They don't have 2 fall advantage over anyone else. B/L would be delusional to think they can stay in the top 10 with that kind of performance.
    IT WAS SKATE AMERICA. Sorry but D/C had an advantage in AMERICA. It was ridiculous that B/L lost to D/C there. Not gonna happen again. And it would be delusional for you to think that B/L would ever not be in top 10 unless they had an injury.

  10. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by DianaSelene View Post
    IT WAS SKATE AMERICA. Sorry but D/C had an advantage in AMERICA. It was ridiculous that B/L lost to D/C there. Not gonna happen again. And it would be delusional for you to think that B/L would ever not be in top 10 unless they had an injury.
    B/L should worry about their spot first. Maybe they won't even get to be out of the top 10 in the 2014 Olympics. I predict they will not even make World next year.

  11. #101
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    Well, that's possible. There are great juniors in the Russian program coming up every year. The third place team is always at risk of not making worlds in the following year.

  12. #102
    Custom Title DianaSelene's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    B/L should worry about their spot first. Maybe they won't even get to be out of the top 10 in the 2014 Olympics. I predict they will not even make World next year.
    What influenced you to such a conclusion that makes no sense. That they might not make it to worlds next year is not likely but possible if suddenly another Russian pair becomes better than them. However, at Vancouver they were 11th and didn't skate so well. If they go to next olympics, they will definitely be higher than 11th obviously. D/C should worry more because usually 3rd Russian pair is still better than 1st American pair and will definitely be ranked higher at worlds if both go clean.

  13. #103
    Custom Title DianaSelene's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dorispulaski View Post
    Well, that's possible. There are great juniors in the Russian program coming up every year. The third place team is always at risk of not making worlds in the following year.
    Definitely. G/E, I/M, S/K. And although Davankova/Deputat will not be able to go anywhere until after the olympics, they look very promising.

  14. #104
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    Barazova/Larionov's PCS at Europeans, LP: 63.09
    Denney/Coughlin PCS at NATIONALS, LP: 63.49

    So even with National judging, they barely, barely sneak ahead. We can assume that drops by about five points. So now they have 58.49. If they skate clean at Worlds. Meanwhile, it's likely that B/L's PCS will increase - Worlds tend to increase the PCS, being the defacto climax of the season (see Chan's LP PCS last season).

    Barazova/Larionov's Base Value at Europeans, LP: 55.43 (one UR'ed 2A, one level one element)
    Denney/Coughlin Base Value at NATIONALS, LP: 53.88 (no URs, one level one element)

    So Bazarova/Larionov win on base value too, with one error.

    D/R's tougher. I think they would have a slight benefit on PCS, due to familiarity. As we saw at TEB, a 60+ base value can take a lot of hits. So it'll be up to GOEs, and I don't think a clean D/C will make up six+ points here compared to a clean D/R.

    If everyone's clean, it'll be something like

    1/2. S/S and V/T
    3/4. P/T and K/S
    5/6/7. Z/Z, B/L, D/R
    8/9/10. T/T, B/H, and D/C

    Of course, likelihood of certain teams going clean is greater than others (if T/T go clean, I'll eat my hat).

  15. #105
    Spiral Lover tulosai's Avatar
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    ^^^

    This. Thank you. You explain what I was trying to much better than me.

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