Worlds podium?

[silverlake22]

I'm not convinced Hanyu will medal. He's incredibly talented and I love his skating, but he's not always so consistent, and has stamina issues sometimes. If he skates like he did at CoC, he will probably be in the lower end of the top 10, nowhere near the podium. And if Kozuka delivers, I tend to think he will be placed ahead. Javi was looking like a good bet but then Euros happened. For this reason I think someone unexpected might sneak onto the podium, most likely Joubert for reasons I discussed earlier, but maybe even someone like Amodio, Verner, Abbott etc. Brezina could jump his way to the podium too, but he seems to have plateaued a bit this season and he always seems to make silly mistakes at the end of his long programs. I could actually see Verner beating Brezina here honestly, because his FS at Euros was bad and he still managed 144, meaning if he's clean he could get like 160, and then if he does 4-3 in SP, he could get on the podium. Of course the stars would have to all allign and it's Verner so I doubt he goes clean, but you never know. Jeremy again like Tomas doubt he skates clean but if he does, should be enough for bronze unless someone like Javi or Hanyu skates clean too with all those quads. Idk. My money is on Joubert.

[ImaginaryPogue]

Possible MINIMUM placements of Wagner/Czisny (in either order) that would do it: 6th/7th, 5th/8th, 4th/9th, 3rd/10th, 2nd/11th, 1st/12th.

So if Czisny falls to 11th, for example, Wagner must get at least a silver medal. Quite a tall task.

RD, I've gotta ask, what would you rather: three spots or one podium finish?

[skateluvr]

23 I wish. Unfortunately 13.

oops, i meant 13...one of my many typos (my bad) I didn't catch before the phone rang. Yes, I thought 13. Well, We are really leaning on Ashley here, I hope she's up to it.

[R.D.]

RD, I've gotta ask, what would you rather: three spots or one podium finish?

Both if possible.

[skateluvr]

Who will European judges favor based on past skating? Will they have sentimental Joubert bias or is Florent appreciated by European judges for his "flair?"

[ImaginaryPogue]

Both if possible.

I think it'll happen, fwiw. Two Americans, two Japanese and one Italian in the top five.

[SkateFiguring]

RD, I've gotta ask, what would you rather: three spots or one podium finish?

A podium finish makes three spots more likely.

[ImaginaryPogue]

A podium finish makes three spots more likely.

True, but one is certainly no guarantee of the other (see Canada's men, Chinese pairs, etc)

[deedee1]

My dream podium ver. 4: Pairs

Before I post my predictions in 'Predictions' thread in Worlds 2012, let me finish my dream podium here in The Edge.

1 Yuko KAVAGUTI/Sasha SMIRNOV
2/3 Aolina SAVCHENKO/Robin SZOLKOWY or Tatiana VOLOSOZHAR/Maxim TRANKOV
4 Stefania BERTON/Ondrej HOTAREK

Yuko and Sasha is my sentimental favorite for Gold this year.

I guess the Olympic Gold Medal at Sochi seems too far to grab for Yuko & Sasha by now, because of Tatiana & Maxim.

But considering all the efforts, hard works and sacrifices they have made for the federation in order to keep the 'needed' spots at Worlds/Olympics all those years when Russia seemingly had no other top pair teams after Totmianina/Marinin at Torino 2006, I believe they deserve, at least, one World title. And this year's might be their last chance for the title.
I normally donot like 'politiking' by ANY federations, but I hope Yuko & Sasha will have two clean skates in Nice, and with the enough supports from their federation, they somehow manage to grab that title.

For Stefania & Ondrej, I simply love this Italian team.

They have good programs every year that I always enjoy, compared to some of other teams; where I see rather boring programs in general; ignore the music, just thow in this twist here, and thow out that jump there.

The other thing I love about this team is, when they finish their program, they greet to the judges and the audience like everybody else does, and then they greet each other with saying something like "Thank you for being my partner" or "Thank you, I enjoyed your company" every time, regardless of their perforamnce good or bad.
It is really a good attitude to show enough respect to its partner, especailly the descipline like Pairs which has dangerous elements to deal with together, such as lifts, twists and throw jumps.

All four teams I mentioned the above have been suffering from a certain injury respectively. I hope they healed by now, and can have decent practices till Worlds. Good luck to them!

[Skater Boy]

Oops I forgot about Fernandez yep he could even win it all but Chan and Tak would have to fall apart. Yeah, that's right I totally forgot the matrix is tradition. Okay just to have some fun here silverlake 22 (please don't be offended the opportunity was just too tempting) it was tradition that Susan Lucci lose the Emmy over and over, it is tradition that you go to a fancy hotel and get rubber chicken, it's tradition that Meryl Streep is on the worst dressed list, it's tradition that Lindsay Lohan does something revolting, it's tradition that the Canadian ladies will choke - tradition isn't always so good. I wonder if Brian will retire this year finally or will he skate on and on like that titanic son "my heart will go on" or the song that never ends???

[spikydurian]

Okay just to have some fun here silverlake 22 (please don't be offended the opportunity was just too tempting) it was tradition that Susan Lucci lose the Emmy over and over, it is tradition that you go to a fancy hotel and get rubber chicken, it's tradition that Meryl Streep is on the worst dressed list, it's tradition that Lindsay Lohan does something revolting, it's tradition that the Canadian ladies will choke - tradition isn't always so good. I wonder if Brian will retire this year finally or will he skate on and on like that titanic son "my heart will go on" or the song that never ends???

LOL, you are always so funny.

[b-man]

I think it'll happen, fwiw. Two Americans, two Japanese and one Italian in the top five.

1. Kostner
2. Asada
3. Wagner
4. Polina K. -very underrated
5. Akiko
6. Leonova
7. Czisny- struggling, but still top ten
8. Murakami
9. Elene G.
10. Kexin Z., replacing Korpi in 10th

[skateluvr]

I think you may be right b man. If Alissa lands 2 or 3 jumps, she could take 5-7. I don't think she will place below 10th even if she bombs big time. I see 1-6 as skating better than Alissa can at a big time competition like Worllds. Polina is so new and hence under rated. I love her. But I think she is amazing and I think she will score big as "the Russian newcomer." Interesting that you don't see Makarova in 10th place with Kiira out. I think Elene competes poorly. Murakami may do very well. If she skates as well as she can or close, she deserves to beat Alissa. It will be interesting to see how the judges deal with Alissa bombing this time and how many points her spins, spirals, skating skills, beauty will be worth this year.

I wish i had some confidence in her, but 7th place may be the best she can do. If Elene skates like she is capable she could be in 8th or 9th- no way to know how much the judges may hold her up for the beautiful elements, even if she manages only a couple clean triples.

[R.D.]

If Alissa lands 2 or 3 jumps, she could take 5-7. I don't think she will place below 10th even if she bombs big time.

Disagree...

As I pointed out in another thread (or at least I think it was another thread), Czisny WILL find herself in mid-teens if she has a repeat of Challenge cup. Her CC score (152) would have been good enough for 13th at last year's worlds, 14th at 2010 worlds.

Fortunately, odds are she won't repeat that monstrosity- but unfortunately, odds are strongly against her skating cleanly too. If I were a betting man (I'm not), based on her skates this season I would have her making 3-4 major mistakes throughout her SP and FS and placing in the 7th-9th category.

For Wagner, this would mean that if she wants to do her part in getting back the US third spot, she should shoot for ~4th. If she can skate like 4CC or even nationals, that is definitely doable IMHO.

[SkateFiguring]

Going by Season Best Total Scores, Wagner is highly likely to medal. She has the highest SB and I would put the top 4 in a group consisting of Wagner, Asada, Kostner and Lipnitskaia, with Suzuki, Liza Tukt, and Leonova closely behind. Czisny has the 8th highest PB but she is so inconsistent and has had also some terrible skates. She needs to be in the top ten, for herself and for the US. Assuming Wagner would do no worse than 4th, then it is highly possible for the US to gain back the 3rd spot. Neither of them can afford to bomb.