Joubert has no shot at a medal, Chan already a lock for gold(will win by at least 20 points if not more) than for sure a japanese guy either Takahashi or Hanyu, than you have like 10 guys fighting for the bronze his odds aren`t great he has to be super clean land all his quads and hope for like 7 splatfests.
Tak and Chan look to be the men's favourites. Someone will get lucky for bronze - Abbott, Kozuka, Hanyu, Brezina, Verner, Amodio even Joubert. I do think though Brian should bid adieu after this and move on. I hate seeing former world champions struggling to make top ten and recycling old routines.
Also Takahashi maybe isn't a podium lock. I tend to think he will probably be on the podium somewhere, but he can be a bit Abbottish at times in that his TES will occasionally get abysmally low when his jumps decide to go AWOL, which they sometimes do, and then even his mega-PCS (higher than Abbott and anyone's really save Chan) can't hold him up above others who skate strong technical programs and have pretty high PCS themselves. We shall see. I do agree that the 3rd spot is really widee open though. In some ways I'd like to see an "old-timer" such as Joubert, Abbott, Verner, etc take it, just for sentimental reasons, even though chances are some youngin' (putting my money on Hanyu, Fernandez, or Gatchinski) will rise to the challenge.
Nobody comes close in consistency in results to these two Men.
Last edited by Violet Bliss; 03-20-2012 at 05:40 PM.
Lets assume IF THEY CAN do it without being blatantly unfair, that bronze is going to a European in mens. Let us look at the two french men. Who do you think could take the bronze if they skate clean and do their technical best? Joubert, the retiring former WC who came from the "must have quad era," though you can win OGN with a 3x3 since 2010? He is a sentimental favorite in France I would think. Or are they ready to say...good for you Jouby, but Florent the future, is a CoP skater and he has the footwork, etc. I barely recall his programs this year except the costume I hate so much. He is flamboyant. I seem to remember his fast feet but need to rewatch his programs. Can someone who remembers their technical abilities in Sp and Lp tell me who is more deserving of bronze? I truly believe they will want to get one of them into bronze if they skate well. Of course, their is Javier, Michal, Artur, jeremy etc, so who can say anything except Chan is a lock for gold.
If Chan skates clean, he should pull 30 point lead over flawed Taka. In think Taka will skate well, I hope, but when was his last clean Sp and LP in a program? I wonder how his quad is in practice...practice reports any one? When was last competition he landed quad in LP? How was it?
Hanyu will be his competition this year, and I can see Hanyu skating off with silver if Taka's injuries still hamper his performances. I think Silver is between Taka and Hanyu, though there may be sentimental rep judging going on with older skaters who are former champions and someone like Jeremy who they like and I think want to see on the podium.
Caarolina just has to do what she'd been doing for gold. I expect a very good but not flawless Mao for silver and Akiko as great skating skills and the age/backstory to take bronze. She might even best Mao for the silver. Ashley has a shot at this - maybe silver, maybe bronze. If she skates as she has in her last two outings, and others make mistakes, she will definitely be on the podium If all these ladies show up, then Ashley might take fourth. Leonova skates the heck out of her crappy programs so she should be top 5. The Fins are out sick, no Canadian lady to watch. Alissa even with a bad skate with her inflated PCS scores should be top ten. Is 13 the number for 3 spots? Ashley gets bronze and Alissa only has to place ten? Can someone clarify what we need at a minumum for placements to get 3 spots back in ladies? Thank you.
Last edited by skateluvr; 03-20-2012 at 08:11 PM. Reason: too many typos!
Possible MINIMUM placements of Wagner/Czisny (in either order) that would do it: 6th/7th, 5th/8th, 4th/9th, 3rd/10th, 2nd/11th, 1st/12th.
So if Czisny falls to 11th, for example, Wagner must get at least a silver medal. Quite a tall task.
Last edited by R.D.; 03-20-2012 at 06:30 PM.