Worlds podium?

[ImaginaryPogue]

I guess I didn't know because I wasn't reading the forum at the time. Ridiculous nevertheless that people said that...

It actually wasn't just forum hopedicting (hopes rationalized into predictions, but it's a made-up word). I recall Sports Illustrated saying something similar in their Winter Olympics prediction.

I actually think T/M could have crushed all the teams in Vancouver if they continued skating after Torino. A few weeks ago, they were skating together at a show. They did a beautiful 3 sal throw and Marinin did a perfect 2 axel. And that's considering they don't practice for competitions anymore. On the technical side, they were often almost untouchable.

I wouldn't say crush, but given the level of skating in Vancouver and their technical prowess (with a hint of luck, as always), it could've happen.

[romanoff81]

Joubert has no shot at a medal, Chan already a lock for gold(will win by at least 20 points if not more) than for sure a japanese guy either Takahashi or Hanyu, than you have like 10 guys fighting for the bronze his odds aren`t great he has to be super clean land all his quads and hope for like 7 splatfests.

[pangtongfan]

It actually wasn't just forum hopedicting (hopes rationalized into predictions, but it's a made-up word). I recall Sports Illustrated saying something similar in their Winter Olympics prediction.

This is not true. Sports Illustrated predicted Totmianina & Marinin to win the Olympic Gold for 2006 in their early predictions in August 2005, when they stated they presumed Shen & Zhou would be fully ready for the Olympics and predicted them to win silver. They also made no mention of "Shen & Zhou will win for sure if fully healthy and able to compete a whole season leading into Turin." They simply made a joke if Maxim Marinin did not drop his partner on her head like at the previous years Skate America they looked in good shape to win. Right before the Olympics they predicted Totmianina & Marinin to win, and Shen & Zhou to not even medal, when it was clear they werent nearly as ready as hoped in the summer.

[ImaginaryPogue]

This is not true. Sports Illustrated predicted Totmianina & Marinin to win the Olympic Gold for 2006 in their early predictions in August 2005, when they stated they presumed Shen & Zhou would be fully ready for the Olympics and predicted them to win silver. They also made no mention of "Shen & Zhou will win for sure if fully healthy and able to compete a whole season leading into Turin." They simply made a joke if Maxim Marinin did not drop his partner on her head like at the previous years Skate America they looked in good shape to win. Right before the Olympics they predicted Totmianina & Marinin to win, and Shen & Zhou to not even medal, when it was clear they werent nearly as ready as hoped in the summer.

I stand corrected.

[silverlake22]

So basically he has to do a jump competition beyond what he has ever done in his life even while clearly past his prime, and land everything perfectly, then hope for enough mistakes as well, and he might get the bronze. That is the equivalent of a Hail Mary.

Well he tried for 4 quads at Challenge Cup this week which is why I'm even suggesting he might go for it in Nice. Yes he is past his prime and yes he always leaves points on the table because he doesn't understand COP and always does like one two-jump combination and that's it, but it is Joubert we are talking about, and Worlds are in France, and one spot on the podium is sort of wide open so...idk. I could see it happening. He was 4th in the FS at last year's Worlds.

[Bluebonnet]

I think 2 out of Abbott, Hanyu, Fernandez will medal at Worlds. I dont see Takahashi as a lock for the podium as others do. His performances at 4CCs were weak and easily beatable by many skaters, none of whom were even there though. Fernandez was awful at Europeans but I have a feeling he will be back at his early season level or higher come Worlds.

Everything said, while I have no objection on your this position, Takahashi's 4CC performances were not his standard as high altitude undermined his skating greatly.

[Skater Boy]

Tak and Chan look to be the men's favourites. Someone will get lucky for bronze - Abbott, Kozuka, Hanyu, Brezina, Verner, Amodio even Joubert. I do think though Brian should bid adieu after this and move on. I hate seeing former world champions struggling to make top ten and recycling old routines.

[spikydurian]

Tak and Chan look to be the men's favourites. .

Not complaining!
Wish all of them all the best. Wish there are more than 3 medals in a competition. The top skaters all have their personal strengths. Let's enjoy all of their skates.

[silverlake22]

Tak and Chan look to be the men's favourites. Someone will get lucky for bronze - Abbott, Kozuka, Hanyu, Brezina, Verner, Amodio even Joubert. I do think though Brian should bid adieu after this and move on. I hate seeing former world champions struggling to make top ten and recycling old routines.

His Matrix program is not recycled, it's a tradition! His 3rd time skating to Matrix, which has become the trademark music for Brian Joubert. I have a feeling this will be his last competition, and as such, I would totally LOVE if he could medal at his last Worlds, pull a Sarah Meier (well okay it's HIGHLYY unlikely he wins, but I feel like bronze is not out of his reach). But I agree. Regardless of result he should probably retire, unless he really wants one more go at the Olympics to redeem himself from his 16th place in Vancouver.

Also Takahashi maybe isn't a podium lock. I tend to think he will probably be on the podium somewhere, but he can be a bit Abbottish at times in that his TES will occasionally get abysmally low when his jumps decide to go AWOL, which they sometimes do, and then even his mega-PCS (higher than Abbott and anyone's really save Chan) can't hold him up above others who skate strong technical programs and have pretty high PCS themselves. We shall see. I do agree that the 3rd spot is really widee open though. In some ways I'd like to see an "old-timer" such as Joubert, Abbott, Verner, etc take it, just for sentimental reasons, even though chances are some youngin' (putting my money on Hanyu, Fernandez, or Gatchinski) will rise to the challenge.

[silverlake22]

Joubert has no shot at a medal, Chan already a lock for gold(will win by at least 20 points if not more) than for sure a japanese guy either Takahashi or Hanyu, than you have like 10 guys fighting for the bronze his odds aren`t great he has to be super clean land all his quads and hope for like 7 splatfests.

I don't know if others agree, but to me, Joubert at Worlds falls into his own category. If he skates well, he always seems to wind up on the podium even if other skaters seem to deserve it more, this was the case in 2009 and 2010, and probably other WCs I'm forgetting. I know he's been getting dumped in PCS lately and he's past his prime, but he is Joubert, and this is France, so idk, if he lands 3 quads, his chances are probably pretty good for snatching bronze, IMO.

[SkateFiguring]

Also Takahashi maybe isn't a podium lock. I tend to think he will probably be on the podium somewhere, but he can be a bit Abbottish at times in that his TES will occasionally get abysmally low when his jumps decide to go AWOL, which they sometimes do, and then even his mega-PCS (higher than Abbott and anyone's really save Chan) can't hold him up above others who skate strong technical programs and have pretty high PCS themselves. We shall see.

Actually Takahashi has had a stellar season. Yes his TES has been inconsistent but he only seems to struggle when compared to Chan, which is often the case in discussions. Except for Skate Canada when he came third after Chan and Fernandez, he has been winning competitions, even with multiple falls, and coming in second only when Chan also competes. He has already avenged Fernadez at GPF. He has managed to have at least one good or excellent program at each event as a cushion in a season of many inconsistent Men. Looking at the whole season thus far, I'd say he is hot, with a nemesis named Patrick Chan.

Nobody comes close in consistency in results to these two Men.

[skateluvr]

Lets assume IF THEY CAN do it without being blatantly unfair, that bronze is going to a European in mens. Let us look at the two french men. Who do you think could take the bronze if they skate clean and do their technical best? Joubert, the retiring former WC who came from the "must have quad era," though you can win OGN with a 3x3 since 2010? He is a sentimental favorite in France I would think. Or are they ready to say...good for you Jouby, but Florent the future, is a CoP skater and he has the footwork, etc. I barely recall his programs this year except the costume I hate so much. He is flamboyant. I seem to remember his fast feet but need to rewatch his programs. Can someone who remembers their technical abilities in Sp and Lp tell me who is more deserving of bronze? I truly believe they will want to get one of them into bronze if they skate well. Of course, their is Javier, Michal, Artur, jeremy etc, so who can say anything except Chan is a lock for gold.

If Chan skates clean, he should pull 30 point lead over flawed Taka. In think Taka will skate well, I hope, but when was his last clean Sp and LP in a program? I wonder how his quad is in practice...practice reports any one? When was last competition he landed quad in LP? How was it?

Hanyu will be his competition this year, and I can see Hanyu skating off with silver if Taka's injuries still hamper his performances. I think Silver is between Taka and Hanyu, though there may be sentimental rep judging going on with older skaters who are former champions and someone like Jeremy who they like and I think want to see on the podium.

Caarolina just has to do what she'd been doing for gold. I expect a very good but not flawless Mao for silver and Akiko as great skating skills and the age/backstory to take bronze. She might even best Mao for the silver. Ashley has a shot at this - maybe silver, maybe bronze. If she skates as she has in her last two outings, and others make mistakes, she will definitely be on the podium If all these ladies show up, then Ashley might take fourth. Leonova skates the heck out of her crappy programs so she should be top 5. The Fins are out sick, no Canadian lady to watch. Alissa even with a bad skate with her inflated PCS scores should be top ten. Is 13 the number for 3 spots? Ashley gets bronze and Alissa only has to place ten? Can someone clarify what we need at a minumum for placements to get 3 spots back in ladies? Thank you.

[macy]

Lets assume IF THEY CAN do it without being blatantly unfair, that bronze is going to a European in mens. Let us look at the two french men. Who do you think could take the bronze if they skate clean and do their technical best? Joubert, the retiring former WC who came from the "must have quad era," though you can win OGN with a 3x3 since 2010? He is a sentimental favorite in France I would think. Or are they ready to say...good for you Jouby, but Florent the future, is a CoP skater and he has the footwork, etc. I barely recall his programs this year except the costume I hate so much. He is flamboyant. I seem to remember his fast feet but need to rewatch his programs. Can someone who remembers their technical abilities in Sp and Lp tell me who is more deserving of bronze? I truly believe they will want to get one of them into bronze if they skate well. Of course, their is Javier, Michal, Artur, jeremy etc, so who can say anything except Chan is a lock for gold.

If Chan skates clean, he should pull 30 point lead over flawed Taka. In think Taka will skate well, I hope, but when was his last clean Sp and LP in a program? I wonder how his quad is in practice...practice reports any one? When was last competition he landed quad in LP? How was it?

Hanyu will be his competition this year, and I can see Hanyu skating off with silver if Taka's injuries still hamper his performances. I think Silver is between Taka and Hanyu, though there may be sentimental rep judging going on with older skaters who are former champions and someone like Jeremy who they like and I think want to see on the podium.

Caarolina just has to do what she'd been doing for gold. I expect a very good but not flawless Mao for silver and Akiko as great skating skills and the age/backstory to take bronze. She might even best Mao for the silver. Ashley has a shot at this - maybe silver, maybe bronze. If she skates as she has in her last two outings, and others make mistakes, she will definitely be on the podium If all these ladies show up, then Ashley might take fourth. Leonova skates the hecck out of her crappy programs so she should be top 5. The Fins are out sick, no Canadian lady to watch. Alissa even with a bad skate with her inflated PCS scores should be top ten. Is 23 the number for 3 spots? Ashley gets bronze and Alissa only has to plave ten? Can someone clarify what we need at a minumum for placements to get 3 spots back in ladies? Thank you.

13

[DianaSelene]

23 I wish. Unfortunately 13.

[R.D.]

Possible MINIMUM placements of Wagner/Czisny (in either order) that would do it: 6th/7th, 5th/8th, 4th/9th, 3rd/10th, 2nd/11th, 1st/12th.

So if Czisny falls to 11th, for example, Wagner must get at least a silver medal. Quite a tall task.