LADIES LONG PROGRAM Thread

[pangtongfan]

Highly unlikely. You have 3 Japanese, 2 Americans, 2 Russians, 1 Italian who are certain to rank ahead of Amelie. Then you have 2-3 other Europeans, and 1 Chinese who have the technical goods and consistency to contend for top 10. It's not going to happen with Amelie's also-dismal consistency.

They both suck. I hope Joannie comes back next year and neither get to go to Worlds (assuming the obvious of only 1 spot for Canada again).

[Blades of Passion]

I do definitely think Mao should be practicing a 3-3 for the SP. She's giving up points there. For the Long Program, having a Triple-Triple isn't necessary (or even beneficial, unfortunately, with this stupid scoring system of rewarding 2Axel-3Toe more than a real Triple-Triple). This jump layout would be a higher base value than any of the Russian girls:

3Axel
3Flip
3Lutz
--------
2Axel-3Toe
3Flip-2Loop-2Loop
3Loop-2Loop
3Loop

[pangtongfan]

I guess we disagree. I like Ashley's Black Swan program, but I don't think it's wonderful. In fact, I think it's strangely constructed in that her moments of faster/more intense skating don't seem to match the crescendos in the music. It is a vast improvement over some of her other programs (especially the very repetitive Polovetsian Dances routine) but, at least IMO, it strikes me as the program of someone who is using a lot of big, gimmicky arm movements to try to create a connection to the music. To me, even though Ashley does all of that arm work, part of the performance still seems like it's inauthentic/ wanting. Sasha Cohen skated to a very similar selection of music and was far better at integrating the choreography and creating an authentic interpretation as far as I'm concerned.

That doesn't have a lot of bearing on the Alissa vs. Ashley debate. I agree with you on transitions going to Ashley, but I disagree with CH and IN going to Ashley. Alissa's program can be sparse in terms of transitions and the music can be a bit monotonous at times, however, I do think that the arm movements and her connection to the music fit together better than Ashley's do. I also think the structure of the program makes sense. In the event of 2 clean skates I think Czisny and Wagner's CH and IN would be closer than they should be since some judges tend to confuse a lot of choreographical movement for good choreography. Nonetheless, I still think that Alissa should carry the day on PCS.

I am not sure what YMMV means, so I can't really offer an opinion on that, but I believe the PE mark would go to whoever skated a cleaner program on the day. In the event of two clean skates, my guess is that Alissa's higher quality in the aforementioned areas would help her here. I am unabashedly biased, however. Hopefully both ladies skate cleanly in Nice so this won't have to be a hypothetical debate!

There isnt a sliver of a hope of Czisny skating a clean long program at Worlds (other than one including alot of doubles jumps) at this point, so your speculation and its premise is pointless. If Wagner skates as well as she did at 4 Continents she will easily beat whatever Czisny conceivably might do at Worlds. Especialy as after this event the USFSA will get firmly behind their U.S Champion and give her their principal backing, which will likely mean higher PCS than Czisny.

[artsciboy]

Contraire, my stats show that Mao rotates her 3axel 80% of the time, including the 2010 Olympics.

In fact I've been waiting for her to do 8 triple jumps, as she is the ONLY lady in the world allowed to do so because of the fact that she *does* have a 3axel in her repertoire.

Problem is, she doesn't really *have* any of her other triples - she might be trying 3s and 3"z" - but they're not really happening for her.

[herro]

There isnt a sliver of a hope of Czisny skating a clean long program at Worlds (other than one including alot of doubles jumps) at this point, so your speculation and its premise is pointless. If Wagner skates as well as she did at 4 Continents she will easily beat whatever Czisny conceivably might do at Worlds. Especialy as after this event the USFSA will get firmly behind their U.S Champion and give her their principal backing, which will likely mean higher PCS than Czisny.

Wow that's a little harsh. I wouldn't say Alissa has no chance of skating clean. She's been remarkably consistent for the most part.

[Mao88]

Contraire, my stats show that Mao rotates her 3axel 80% of the time, including the 2010 Olympics.

In fact I've been waiting for her to do 8 triple jumps, as she is the ONLY lady in the world allowed to do so because of the fact that she *does* have a 3axel in her repertoire.

Those stats I will certainly check out some time!! If your right - fantastic. But, it doesn't concur with my recollection (although maybe we just remembers the one's that didn't work!) and I'm not convinced about retaining the 3A for the reasons given. Both 3A's in this competition were certainly under-rotated.

[mylastduchess]

I disagree Mao should drop the 3axel. She clearly isnt a judges favorite at this point, and she has virtually no chance of beating a decent Caroline at Worlds (especialy in Europe) without it.

Caroline who? Mao's 124 FS has not been beaten till now with no 3A

[herro]

Caroline who? Mao's 124 FS has not been beaten till now with no 3A

Carolina Kostner? Kostner can score big if she goes clean as well.

[bekalc]

[QUOTE=Nadine;617321]

I think you mean, Phaneuf had her chance here a 4CC to show SC that she was definitely the one that they should send.



Phaneuf failed. Lacoste won.




Contraire, Mr. Mathman, contraire.

As the 1-time Canadian National Champion & Challenger, it was up to Amelie Lacoste to show not just the doubters, but more importantly SC that they were *not* wrong in placing her over 7-time Canadian National Medalist (two of those gold), Cynthia Phaneuf. And she failed. Once again, her win (if one can call it that) was not convincing. She still left doubt on the table, and that's where she went wrong, doubt.

Amelie is the Canadian National Champion-not Cynthia. It doesn't matter how many medals Cynthia had in the past; what matters now is that Amelie has proven that this season she's slightly stronger than Cynthia. If medals in the past matter than why not put Kwan on the team and throw off Czisny?

Cynthia-not Amelie is the one asking the Canadian federation to ignore their own Nationals; it was on her to PROVE that she is stronger than Amelie. She didn't do so. This is about basic fairness now.

What about doubt on Cynthia. Cynthia has proven time and time again that she's unreliable. That she's a headcase and inconsistent. She fell twice in the short program, and there are no doubts about her. Sure she could have a miracle skate like she did at worlds. But her skating here isn't showing that's likely. She could also bomb spectacularly. She skates a short program like she did here; she will be so far in the bottom of the pack that even a decent skate won't help things.

The Canadian fed needs to think about what kind of message it sends to their skaters if they play politics like this. Does Cynthia have more potential-absolutely. But what kind of message do they send to their skaters if they play politics and blatently ignore every result this season when it comes to choosing the world team.
Amelie, when you think about it, might have some real cause to sue; if she's taken of the team.

[Nadine]

[QUOTE=bekalc;617355]

Amelie is the Canadian National Champion-not Cynthia. It doesn't matter how many medals Cynthia had in the past; what matters now is that Amelie has proven that this season she's slightly stronger than Cynthia. If medals in the past matter than why not put Kwan on the team and throw off Czisny?

Cynthia-not Amelie is the one asking the Canadian federation to ignore their own Nationals; it was on her to PROVE that she is stronger than Amelie. She didn't do so. This is about basic fairness now.

Lol I bet the USFSA would if that were the case, seeing as how they did it back in 2006, but the fact is that Michelle is no longer competing. And also I bet Alissa Czisny will surprise everybody by medalling at Worlds (she has it all as well, judges' marks prove that, along with Ashley).

Now I'm off to look at my Mao stats again. And PROVE my point!

[evangeline]

I guess we disagree. I like Ashley's Black Swan program, but I don't think it's wonderful. In fact, I think it's strangely constructed in that her moments of faster/more intense skating don't seem to match the crescendos in the music. It is a vast improvement over some of her other programs (especially the very repetitive Polovetsian Dances routine) but, at least IMO, it strikes me as the program of someone who is using a lot of big, gimmicky arm movements to try to create a connection to the music. To me, even though Ashley does all of that arm work, part of the performance still seems like it's inauthentic/ wanting. Sasha Cohen skated to a very similar selection of music and was far better at integrating the choreography and creating an authentic interpretation as far as I'm concerned.

That doesn't have a lot of bearing on the Alissa vs. Ashley debate. I agree with you on transitions going to Ashley, but I disagree with CH and IN going to Ashley. Alissa's program can be sparse in terms of transitions and the music can be a bit monotonous at times, however, I do think that the arm movements and her connection to the music fit together better than Ashley's do. I also think the structure of the program makes sense. In the event of 2 clean skates I think Czisny and Wagner's CH and IN would be closer than they should be since some judges tend to confuse a lot of choreographical movement for good choreography. Nonetheless, I still think that Alissa should carry the day on PCS.

I am not sure what YMMV means, so I can't really offer an opinion on that, but I believe the PE mark would go to whoever skated a cleaner program on the day. In the event of two clean skates, my guess is that Alissa's higher quality in the aforementioned areas would help her here. I am unabashedly biased, however. Hopefully both ladies skate cleanly in Nice so this won't have to be a hypothetical debate!

I actually agree with your point that the judges do tend to confuse a lot of choreographical movement for good choreography, but what kills Alissa's IN and CH marks in my books are the long, slow stalking into her jumping passes. These frequent breaks in both choreography and interpretation (which also happen to be accentuated by the monotonous music) when Alissa's setting up for her jumps don't do her any favours and as a result, I think sticking any other soft, pretty piece of music in the background during most of Alissa's LP won't make a difference at all to the overall effect of the program...which is never a good thing.

As others have pointed out, YMMV = your mileage may vary for PE. Alissa does have better carriage and clarity of movement, but Ashley wins on projection, variety and contrast, and physical, emotional and intellectual involvement (at least to me). So if Ashley performs like she did at 4CC at Worlds, I think I'd give her PE too.

[periperi]

Grrr, just like the men, I missed the ladies. I can't wait for Asada, Wagner and Zhangs' LPs to be put up. It sounds like they saved an otherwise dismal competition.

[bekalc]

[QUOTE=Nadine;617358]

Lol I bet the USFSA would if that were the case, seeing as how they did it back in 2006, but the fact is that Michelle is no longer competing. And also I bet Alissa Czisny will surprise everybody by medalling at Worlds (she has it all as well, judges' marks prove that, along with Ashley).

Now I'm off to look at my Mao stats again. And PROVE my point!

You can't compare Michelle's case with Cynthia's. Michelle had a medical bye and wasn't losing to Emily all season long. Michelle also had to show readiness...

Michelle wasn't asking the US to ignore multiple head to head competitions in that year.

[sky_fly20]

people are so fickle
so Ashley did great at 4CC but doesn't mean we can throw Alissa out of the window now.

I disagree Mao should drop the 3axel. She clearly isnt a judges favorite at this point, and she has virtually no chance of beating a decent Caroline at Worlds (especialy in Europe) without it.

I agree about this and proved my speculation
but Mao was never the judges favorite

I'm sure Carolina's PCS will skyrocket by Worlds as it her title to lose.
the judges when Carolina doesn't have the complete meltdown are always happy to reward her !

[skatingfan04]

Wow. It seems that Wagner's breakout season continues. Amazing for her!!

I am unbelievably satisfied that Amelie will be going to worlds, even though she just squeaked by over Cynthia. It was completey rediculous of Skate Canada to put her through this qualification at all after she won the national championships, and I'm so glad that they ended up forced into sending her, even though they clearly wanted Cynthia to go.