Anyone surprised Ashley beat Mao?

skateluvr · Feb 13, 2012

Mao has a triple axel. She is very special, yada yada. I thought Ahley skated very well, have watched their 4cc SP and Lps just once, did not look up scores. I think either lady getting gold would be acceptable. Did Ash really have home ice advantage that will be forgotten in Nice? Seriously, with the total pack of ladies at Worlds, if top women skate well, and Ash does 2 perfect programs, can she manage bronze?

She did leave some points, didnt do the double axel/triple, right? I see Caro doing well, Mao doing as well as 4cc or better, Alissa popping/falling two triples at least.

So we have Leonova, ? what other Russian ? Polina Korobeynikove or will it be Ksenia at Worlds? then, Kiira and Akiko who I expect to bring it. Is Ashley viable for bronze?

How do you all see Nice poium after 4cc's? I am surprised Mao was not given gold with the axel, a good if slow skate and of course rep/sympathy marks. I guess that's more a factor at Nice than Colorado.

Could Ashley threaten for silver? O am I just dreaming? Opinions?

sky_fly20 · Feb 13, 2012

not really, after watching Mao sp, I had a feeling Ashley would win
Ashley was on the right place, she was fierce and attacked and didn't seem to mind what goes after her jump she just continued performing

Mao88 · Feb 13, 2012

skateluvr said:
Mao has a triple axel. She is very special, yada yada. I thought Ahley skated very well, have watched their 4cc SP and Lps just once, did not look up scores. I think either lady getting gold would be acceptable. Did Ash really have home ice advantage that will be forgotten in Nice? Seriously, with the total pack of ladies at Worlds, if top women skate well, and Ash does 2 perfect programs, can she manage bronze?

She did leave some points, didnt do the double axel/triple, right? I see Caro doing well, Mao doing as well as 4cc or better, Alissa popping/falling two triples at least.

So we have Leonova, ? what other Russian ? Polina Korobeynikove or will it be Ksenia at Worlds? then, Kiira and Akiko who I expect to bring it. Is Ashley viable for bronze?

How do you all see Nice poium after 4cc's? I am surprised Mao was not given gold with the axel, a good if slow skate and of course rep/sympathy marks. I guess that's more a factor at Nice than Colorado.

Could Ashley threaten for silver? O am I just dreaming? Opinions?

In her LP, Mao:-

1. Under-rotated her 3A
2. Hand down on her Lutz
3. Doubled out on her Salchow

That's why she lost. There is no mystery to it. If she had skated clean, she would have won no matter what Ashley did. Moreover, Ashley has beaten Mao before - at the NHK Trophy 2010, by over 10 points (i.e. a bigger margin than at 4CC). Just goes to show that no matter how big the reputation, if you suffer a slump in form as Mao has done, then you will beaten by other good skaters. Other skaters who have beaten Mao during her slump include Rachael Flatt, Kiira Korpi, Caroline Zhang, Elene Gedevanishvili, and quite a number of others. So, losing at 4CC can hardly come as a surprise to anyone.

I can't see Mao regaining her world title this season and unless Kostner has a meltdown, I can't see Ashley winning either. However, I think Ashley is in with a shot of winning the silver or bronze. As for Mao, she simply has too many technical and other problems at the moment and is no where no getting back to her best. I would also add that:-

1. Some say she should keep working on her 3A, but I am not convinced about that. Her success rate in properly landing 3A's over the last 2 seasons including this one is very poor. In my opinion, she should drop the 3A as she would be better off ensuring that she gets the rest of her skating right. Look at how well Kostner has done by scaling back on elements that she was having problems with and by focusing on improving other areas to make up for it.

2. She still can't get the 3Z right and flutzes more often than not.

3. She has problems with her 3S

4. She has still not regained a 3X3 combination

5. She still seems low on confidence overall.

6. Some keep referring to her being under weight. I don't know if there is a weight problem.

7. She has only recently lost her mother.

Given all that, I really don't think it is any surprise that Mao lost 4CC. As stated, I can't see her regaining her world title this season. Lets see how things turn out next season for her. However, if she cannot finally resolve the technical issues she has had over the last 2 seasons once and for all by the end of next season, then I think she should seriously consider retirement. I just think it would be too close to the Olympics by that stage to turn things around. However, were getting ahead of ourselves. At this present juncture, I still think she can turn things around.

Finally, what I would not like to see Mao do if she cannot turn things around is continue like Fumie Suguri, declining inexorably year on year. I just find that kind of thing very sad. Hence, if she finds that she gets to a point where she realises she is not going to get back to where she was at the end of the 2009/10 season, then she should just call it day. Age, injuries, etc, catch up with everybody in the end. That's why most skaters retire at around the age Mao is now because for most skaters, the period between the ages of 15-22 are their best years. For example, only 1 ladies skater since World War 2 has won the Olympic title over the age of 22 (i.e. Shizuka Arakawa). There are those like Shizuka, Akiko, Carolina Kostner, etc, that are able to defy the general trend of decline post age 21/22, but they are the exception to the rule as it were (usually because they have been fortunate enough to remain relatively injury free). It works differently for different skaters. The plain fact of the matter is that figure skating takes its toll on the body and as the injuries accumulate over time, it just gets more and more difficult to remain competitive.

dorispulaski · Feb 13, 2012

Well...how about Kostner?

Didn't she just turn 25?

Alissa Czisny will turn 25 in June

COP has changed what is rewarded for ladies.
We have 2 ladies who are/were still earning high scores when they were over 22.

So the only relevant data points for the OGM are:

Shizuka Arikawa

Yu Na Kim

One of them was over 25. The other one was 19.

Olympia · Feb 13, 2012

That's statistically true, of course. But after what we've seen over the past few years from so many different skaters in terms of reviving their careers, I believe in everyone's possibilities unless it's proved otherwise. Carolina Kostner herself is an example of this. So don't give up yet!

skatinginbc · Feb 13, 2012

I'm worried about Mao's weight. She looked so skinny, fragile and

. All I thought while watching her skate was to spoon-feed her with Duhamel's vegan diet or my husband's all meat buffet.

mskater93 · Feb 13, 2012

sky_fly20 said:
not really, after watching Mao sp, I had a feeling Ashley would win
Ashley was on the right place, she was fierce and attacked and didn't seem to mind what goes after her jump she just continued performing

I totally agree with this statement. When I saw both SP's, I thought Ashley has a really good chance at winning this...

Mirunna · Feb 13, 2012

Retirement at 21 years old? I see no reason to do that if she loves skating and competing. Caroline Zhang did wonders with her jump technique and she was in a bigger slump than Mao. Mao is doing amazing considering all she's been through. She just posted the second season best and beat the score Carolina got at Euros. The comparison to Fumie Suguri is completely irrelevant. Mao's last season was way worse than this one, now she is slowly getting better but unfortunately she had the tragedy of losing her mother which affected her. However, this season she placed no lower than second. Her stamina and overall power are worse than at 2011 NHK trophy(and I thought she was skinnier then, compared with how she looked at Four continents).But it's understandable. As a Mao fan I wished she win every competition. Now I'm just happy to see her skate. In the last competitions I felt she was much more relaxed and skating for herself.
Back to topic, yes, I was surprised to see Ashley win in front of Mao. To be more specific, I was surprised by the score Ashley got. I'm not saying she didn't deserve it because she was the clear winner of the event, but I'm not getting the scores. She skated pretty well in NHK trophy 2011 and got 55 for PCS, now she got over 61, plus massive GOE. So there are 2 possible explanations: either she was underscored at the beginning on the season or she was overscored here. It's imposible for a skater to improve their personal best from around 110 to 128 in a couple of months. It's not like she bombed every competition until this last one. What I really think that happened is that winning the US title put her in the spotlight and the judges finally saw that she made huge improvements to her skating and awarded her with big scores. But let's say, for the sake of argument, she placed second in US nationals, I'm not sure she would get the same scores.

seniorita · Feb 13, 2012

Mao88 said:
Look at how well Kostner has done by scaling back on elements that she was having problems with and by focusing on improving other areas to make up for it.

Yers but Kostner sacrificed the risky big jumps and focused on the pcs and her levels, cause most part of her carreer she was not concidered so artistic to make up for her loss of jumps, but Mao , I dont know what else Mao needs to improve besides her jumps and combos. Of course as she grows more she will skate more mature but all her rest elements and her pcs look far above anyone else for me.

Everytime a skater has a not so good skate or even a bad season people have the tedency to write them off. So Mao has been having a hard time after 2010, I m not surprised she lost here, she was never invicible a la Yuna, but for me she is even more special as a skater. She remindes me of none else. And Ashley was wonderful anyway. Mao has not been first always but she keeps her placements relative high even for a bad day. Why she would retire? Unless she doesnt like competing anymore.

On the other hand Carolina was 1st in Europeans 2010 and then 16th 3 weeks later in Olys. I havent seen so many ups and downs in another skater. Carolina 's placements at worlds have been

10th

5th

3rd

12th

6th

2nd

12th

6th

3rd

but yet she didnt retire, and I m happy she didnt give up and kept going and is having now a so great season, same as what Alissa did last year and what I m sure Mirai will do even if people are rushing again.

loren · Feb 13, 2012

Mirunna said:
Back to topic, yes, I was surprised to see Ashley win in front of Mao. To be more specific, I was surprised by the score Ashley got. I'm not saying she didn't deserve it because she was the clear winner of the event, but I'm not getting the scores. She skated pretty well in NHK trophy 2011 and got 55 for PCS, now she got over 61, plus massive GOE. So there are 2 possible explanations: either she was underscored at the beginning on the season or she was overscored here. It's imposible for a skater to improve their personal best from around 110 to 128 in a couple of months. It's not like she bombed every competition until this last one. What I really think that happened is that winning the US title put her in the spotlight and the judges finally saw that she made huge improvements to her skating and awarded her with big scores. But let's say, for the sake of argument, she placed second in US nationals, I'm not sure she would get the same scores.

Or both, maybe?

I'm just so in awe that there is 18.57 point difference between her NHK trophy FS and 4cc, and her NHK program was relatively clean!

Chris_E · Feb 13, 2012

Scores tend to also inflate in the post season events.

loren said:
Or both, maybe?

I'm just so in awe that there is 18.57 point difference between her NHK trophy FS and 4cc, and her NHK program was relatively clean!

ayayukiituka · Feb 13, 2012

Mao88 said:
In her LP, Mao:-

1. Under-rotated her 3A
2. Hand down on her Lutz
3. Doubled out on her Salchow

That's why she lost. There is no mystery to it. If she had skated clean, she would have won no matter what Ashley did. Moreover, Ashley has beaten Mao before - at the NHK Trophy 2010, by over 10 points (i.e. a bigger margin than at 4CC). Just goes to show that no matter how big the reputation, if you suffer a slump in form as Mao has done, then you will beaten by other good skaters. Other skaters who have beaten Mao during her slump include Rachael Flatt, Kiira Korpi, Caroline Zhang, Elene Gedevanishvili, and quite a number of others. So, losing at 4CC can hardly come as a surprise to anyone.

I can't see Mao regaining her world title this season and unless Kostner has a meltdown, I can't see Ashley winning either. However, I think Ashley is in with a shot of winning the silver or bronze. As for Mao, she simply has too many technical and other problems at the moment and is no where no getting back to her best. I would also add that:-

1. Some say she should keep working on her 3A, but I am not convinced about that. Her success rate in properly landing 3A's over the last 2 seasons including this one is very poor. In my opinion, she should drop the 3A as she would be better off ensuring that she gets the rest of her skating right. Look at how well Kostner has done by scaling back on elements that she was having problems with and by focusing on improving other areas to make up for it.

2. She still can't get the 3Z right and flutzes more often than not.

3. She has problems with her 3S

4. She has still not regained a 3X3 combination

5. She still seems low on confidence overall.

6. Some keep referring to her being under weight. I don't know if there is a weight problem.

7. She has only recently lost her mother.

Given all that, I really don't think it is any surprise that Mao lost 4CC. As stated, I can't see her regaining her world title this season. Lets see how things turn out next season for her. However, if she cannot finally resolve the technical issues she has had over the last 2 seasons once and for all by the end of next season, then I think she should seriously consider retirement. I just think it would be too close to the Olympics by that stage to turn things around. However, were getting ahead of ourselves. At this present juncture, I still think she can turn things around.

Finally, what I would not like to see Mao do if she cannot turn things around is continue like Fumie Suguri, declining inexorably year on year. I just find that kind of thing very sad. Hence, if she finds that she gets to a point where she realises she is not going to get back to where she was at the end of the 2009/10 season, then she should just call it day. Age, injuries, etc, catch up with everybody in the end. That's why most skaters retire at around the age Mao is now because for most skaters, the period between the ages of 15-22 are their best years. For example, only 1 ladies skater since World War 2 has won the Olympic title over the age of 22 (i.e. Shizuka Arakawa). There are those like Shizuka, Akiko, Carolina Kostner, etc, that are able to defy the general trend of decline post age 21/22, but they are the exception to the rule as it were (usually because they have been fortunate enough to remain relatively injury free). It works differently for different skaters. The plain fact of the matter is that figure skating takes its toll on the body and as the injuries accumulate over time, it just gets more and more difficult to remain competitive.

English is not my language,so I can't tell you exactly,but I'll try because it's interesting.
You know Mao's planned base value on jumps was a lot higher than Ashley's.I found it interesting was that Mao's performed jump score 44.07 edge over Ashely's 41.06. What is different was GOE they got on them;Ashley's 10.42 which had not been even close to it on GPS.

SerpentineSteps · Feb 13, 2012

loren said:
Or both, maybe?

I'm just so in awe that there is 18.57 point difference between her NHK trophy FS and 4cc, and her NHK program was relatively clean!

Agreed. While I'm happy for her finally coming to her own, as someone there at Colorado Springs on Saturday, her Yuna-esque GOEs at 4CC left me a bit puzzled.

drivingmissdaisy · Feb 13, 2012

I'm not surprised. Mao has not been steady on her triples recently, so a well-skated 6 triple program is going to beat Mao when she makes multiple errors.

Chris_E · Feb 13, 2012

drivingmissdaisy said:
I'm not surprised. Mao has not been steady on her triples recently, so a well-skated 6 triple program is going to beat Mao when she makes multiple errors.

Yes, if Mao had skated cleanly she would have won but she made too many small mistakes and it cost her. She mentioned those small mistakes herself. Also, I wouldn't call Ashley's pcs Yuna-esque. I think this is probably the best Ashley has ever skated, strong clean jumps, her positive GOE's were deserved.

lavender · Feb 13, 2012

Not surprise. This happens in skating when the best skater isn't at her best and then the other skater just has one of those competitions. If Mao skated clean she would have won and you can't win them all.

After Ashley's score I had a feeling. I felt it even more after watching Mao. She seemed really cautious and once she made the mistake I knew.

mskater93 · Feb 13, 2012

Mirunna said:
To be more specific, I was surprised by the score Ashley got. I'm not saying she didn't deserve it because she was the clear winner of the event, but I'm not getting the scores. She skated pretty well in NHK trophy 2011 and got 55 for PCS, now she got over 61, plus massive GOE. So there are 2 possible explanations: either she was underscored at the beginning on the season or she was overscored here. It's imposible for a skater to improve their personal best from around 110 to 128 in a couple of months.

Mills, Nicks and Wagner made choreographic and transition changes in the second half of the FS program between her second GP event and US Nationals, which can account for part of the improvement in SS, TR and CH marks.
BUT! I see a HUGE difference in the way Wagner is skating. Not that she was skating badly before, but in the two weeks between US Nationals and 4CC there was change - she came out to skate at 4CC like she OWNED the ice, OWNED the judges, and OWNED the crowd. I've never seen her COMMAND a performance like that. That level of command can boost the PCS marks several points. Being National Champion has done something to Wagner's psyche (in a good way). That's the type of COMMAND that Yuna Kim took the ice with in Vancouver and the type of command US Champions that people extol as awesome have taken the ice with. If she can maintain that frame of reference and frame of mind, she will be a formidable competitor in any competition. Wagner would not have the same confidence if she had finished second at US Nationals.

jaylee · Feb 13, 2012

loren said:
Or both, maybe?

I'm just so in awe that there is 18.57 point difference between her NHK trophy FS and 4cc, and her NHK program was relatively clean!

A few things that I notice immediately when looking at NHK vs. 4CCs:

At NHK, her 3Lo and 3F were called UR, and she got an edge call on the lutz. At 4CCs, her jumps were higher, bigger, and no UR was called. She also got a break on the edge call, but all 3 of the medalists did.
Ashley two-footed her final 3Lo at NHK; at 4CCs, she did not.
At NHK, Ashley didn't have a transition preceding either loop. At 4CCs, she did a spread eagle directly into the 3Lo ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=yQJlybl-pJ4#t=172s )

That's a huge chunk of the TES difference right there. As for the PCS, she gave a far better performance skating in front of the hometown crowd--similar to how Mao gives her best performances in Japan, at NHK Trophy and at Nationals. And sure, being the US National champ made a difference. Just as clearly, Miki got a boost from being Japan's #1 last year, and interestingly enough, Mao's PCS has bounced back along with her jumps as she regained her position as Japan's #1 this season.

Chris_E · Feb 13, 2012

mskater93 said:
Mills, Nicks and Wagner made choreographic and transition changes in the second half of the FS program between her second GP event and US Nationals, which can account for part of the improvement in SS, TR and CH marks.
BUT! I see a HUGE difference in the way Wagner is skating. Not that she was skating badly before, but in the two weeks between US Nationals and 4CC there was change - she came out to skate at 4CC like she OWNED the ice, OWNED the judges, and OWNED the crowd. I've never seen her COMMAND a performance like that. That level of command can boost the PCS marks several points. Being National Champion has done something to Wagner's psyche (in a good way). That's the type of COMMAND that Yuna Kim took the ice with in Vancouver and the type of command US Champions that people extol as awesome have taken the ice with. If she can maintain that frame of reference and frame of mind, she will be a formidable competitor in any competition. Wagner would not have the same confidence if she had finished second at US Nationals.

Very good points. Completely agree on her command of the entire performance, it was really something to see. I've been a fan of hers since 2010 but this year I see a better skater with not just the want to win but the training and confidence to do so.

PolymerBob · Feb 13, 2012

mskater93 said:
Wagner would not have the same confidence if she had finished second at US Nationals.

A thought came into my mind ...................
Tara Lipinski would not have had that kind of confidence at the Nagano Olympics had she finished 2nd at Nationals.

But I doubt the judges really care how much confidence you have. Was she fast? Did she land her jumps? How were her spins? How was her footwork? I think Ashley was skating well, and that gave her confidence.

Anyone surprised Ashley beat Mao?

skateluvr

sky_fly20

Match Penalty

Mao88

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl

Olympia

skatinginbc

mskater93

Mirunna

seniorita

loren

Chris_E

ayayukiituka

SerpentineSteps

drivingmissdaisy

Chris_E

lavender

mskater93

jaylee

Chris_E

PolymerBob

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