Fernadez, Hanyu, Brezina, and Song have BV close to Chan's when they are all clean. Takahashi's was 78.79 at GPF when his 4T was credited though he fell on it. Jeremy's is around 73, about 10 points behind Patrick's. Kozuka is hard to tell as he has been underperforming this season.Originally Posted by demarinis5
Those with comparable TES are far behind in PCS. Takahashi and Abbott have the PCS but are behind in TES. None of them are consistent.
^Thank you.
Actually I should substitute Gachinski for Brezina on the list of high TES Men as Brezina has not cracked 70 BV this season. Everyone has wavering BV in a big range through the season with only Chan achieving and maintaining BV over 80 the last three competitions including the Nationals.
Yet Abbott believes that if he skates clean and Chan skates clean, they are in the same level....lol
I don't see why this is so preposterous. In terms of the LP, if Abbott skates totally clean (which he has not done all season) with his quad, 2 3As, no URs and all his planned combos intact (IIRC, his 73 BV at the GPF was not his maxed-out BV as he only had 2 combos and a UR call), I absolutely believe he is a skater worthy of challenging Chan. Abbott also has great skating skills, lots of transitions, and detailed, nuanced choreography. His IN and PE are equal to/better than Chan's when he is on. Abbott's PCS have been high all season even with his mistakes, and they can only go up if he skates cleanly.
Of course, all this is rather theoretical as I have doubts whether Abbott is capable of skating cleanly especially at an event like Worlds given his rather headcase-ish past. But I think it adds up on paper.
Last edited by evangeline; 03-24-2012 at 03:44 AM.
I quoted Abbott's GPF LP BV because it was his season's highest, less than a point higher than his NAT's when he was clean. He has not been clean internationally, falling 7 times in 4 competitions. His maxed LP BV would be almost 80 and his maxed Total BV would still be about 10 points behind Chan's. A clean and well executed performance will put him on the podium but Chan has to beat himself with 2 very faulty skates for a perfect Abbott to win.
It does not add up on paper.
Last edited by SkateFiguring; 03-24-2012 at 07:51 AM.
Takahashi can topple Chan, warns Japan skating chief
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...2ba8cf2c44.201
Takahashi is so inconsistent on quads that i just don`t see it if Chan nails his three quads game over for everybody else.
I think Abbot doubled a jump and didn't max out his combos at nationals.....so for me, the 'on paper' BV is potential planned BV and Abbot, Taka, and a few others have planned BV that can compete with Chan's (not saying win here, saying compete, put pressure, come close, but those GOEs and then PCs enter in and I'm not considering that here)....however, plan and executing the plan are two different things, and Chan is far ahead of the pack in his ability to execute his plan and execute it well. I find it exciting, though, that many are "in the hunt", so to speak, and would be deliriously happy if, say, the top 6 men could deliver their best at worlds as that would be one heck of an exciting comp!
Futher more Abbott is also doing a quad in the short-
Abbott's highest LP BV executed is 73.81 and his optimal LP BV would be about 79.5 vs 83.75 executed by Chan. Abbott's highest executed SP BV is 36.20 and Chan's is 42. Thus Abbott's optimal Total BV would be about 115.70 vs Chan's 125.75 executed BV.
He has not.Futher more Abbott is also doing a quad in the short-
The major difference in their (on paper) BV is a matter of one quad vs three.
Takahashi, OTOH, has the highest SP BV of 41 (NAT) and highest LP BV of 78.79 (GPF) giving him a total of 119.79 best combination BV (2 credited quads). Of the three, only Chan has had a consistently high Total BV. SP BVs are much more consistent than LP's, with both Abbott's and Takahahshi's around 36 and Chan's over 40.
Last edited by SkateFiguring; 03-24-2012 at 02:16 PM.
Seriously? I do not think that's a good idea. Try it in the FS, but no, focus on a clean SP for Worlds, he will score well for a clean short with a 3-3, his quad is not consistent enough to be trying it in the SP IMO, especially considering it's Worlds and Jeremy is inconsistent with his jumps to begin with.
The only time Jeremy didn't fall in his LP was at the Nationals. He had had a consistent SP of around 36 BV without a quad nor any fall until he attempted a quad in it at the Challenge Cup. He ended up with 2 falls in the SP and messed up almost all his jumps in the LP. I think the message from the experiment is quite clear.
I believe Jeremy said (in the pre-worlds teleconference) that he was training the SP both ways-with quad and without, and that the decision would be made in Nice which way to go.
I hope Jeremy makes top 5. With the depth in men's skating, that would be an accomplishment. I don't see him contending for the gold this year.
His best shot for a medal was in 2010.
Takahashi, on the other hand, is a contender.
Based on their BV and season long results, I would say Takahashi and Abbott are medal contenders next to Chan. They are quite certain to medal if they actually compete for the Silver without risking a quad in the SP, unless Takahashi gets as inspired as he did at his NAT. However, he fell 3 times in his following LP and Worlds will not be as forgiving as NAT so it may still be best to leave that SP quad out. But then again, he may go for Gold or nothing, who knows. Jeremy needs to steady his nerves and focus to limit his fall to one, with full rotations.
I love the high PCS guys like Chan, Takahashi and Abbott and they have fallen the most this season. Yet these falls are situational and avoidable at Worlds so my bets would be on them to be on the podium, if only Jeremy would, well,...... (see above). Basically the high PCS guys with big jumps win. The big jumps guys don't have the PCS to win,although among them Fernandez seems to be able to receive pretty high PCS so he is dangerous if one of the top three falters. Hanyu is dangerous with his (inconsistent) high TES but his PCS is not threatening enough, ditto Gachinski. Kozuka is a real dark horse because he is very low profile this year with few competitions. He is probably dragged down by his programs and his PCS is unreasonably low, IMO. However, he is capable of pulling another 2011 Kozuka with a brilliant skate or two and high enough PCS to win himself another Worlds medal.
I stated before, only Chan can beat Chan and he has proven himself to prevail through different difficulties this season to be undefeated.
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