Can Takahashi Close The Gap On Patrick Chan?

gkelly · Feb 22, 2012

Is a "cigar" full credit for the jump? Any credit for the jump (e.g., quads and rotated harder triples with falls still add positive points to the total score under IJS, contributed significantly to the base mark from which deductions were taken in 6.0 short programs, and in 6.0 free programs affected the judges' perceptions of overall technical ability, for better or worse depending on how close the attempt was to succeeding)?

Or does cigar = gold medal? Because most of the skaters don't earn that no matter how many jumps they land or how many times other skaters fall. And even under 6.0 the rules specifically said it was possible to earn the [strike]cigar[/strike] gold medal even with a fall.

In any case, that might answer the question of what the judges or rulemakers were smoking.

skatinginbc · Feb 22, 2012

SkateFiguring said:
I'm not discrediting Plushenko or Joubert, but rather arguments that such winning only happens under COP or that COP encourages and rewards falls.

It is a fact that an element with a fall often receives a partial credit under the CoP. Chan received 57.58% (= 1.90/3.30) of the base mark from his CiSt3 blemished with a fall at 2011 TEB. And he received 73.69% (= 7.59/10.30) of the base mark from his failed 4T at 2011 Skate Canada. Did Plushenko receive any credit for his failed element at the 2004 Worlds? No. He won not because he collected partial credits here and there just enough to outscore a relatively clean Joubert. There is a big difference between "a fall is no bar toward winning" and "a partial credit is given to a failed element".

To discredit the statement that "the sky is blue", one cannot argue that "because the sea is blue as well, the claim that the sky is blue is false." By the same token, to discredit my statement that "under the CoP, difficulty matters the most, outweighing execution", one cannot say that because 6.0 system did the same, it is false to claim that CoP values difficulty more than execution.

SkateFiguring said:
At least results under COP are justified and explainable with rules applicable to all and open protocols of how judges mark each element and component. Such openness and today's online forums simply provide more opportunities for debates

One should be careful not to confuse "openness" with "validity". To determine who the best skater is, we can have all skaters go through a high jump competition, and whoever jumps the highest is crowned the winner. The results are "justified and explainable with rules applicable to all and open protocols of how judges mark each element and component." But is it a valid way of determining the outcomes? The "openness" in that case creates false assumptions and beliefs about the fairness of the game.

SkateFiguring said:
Methinks the nostalgic lenses many wear while exalting the old system as vastly superior are heavily rose colour tinted.

I just want to point out: Criticizing NJS does not equal to supporting 6.0 or wanting the old system back. Equating critics of the new with supporters of the old is like creating smokes and mirrors to distort and marginalize the logic and arguments of the opponents.

Mathman · Feb 22, 2012

gkelly said:
In any case, that might answer the question of what the judges or rulemakers were smoking.

I guess what i was trying to say is that when Chan falls on a pretty good quad attempt, the scoring system gives him a soggy old cigar butt (partial credit) anyway.

Mathman · Feb 22, 2012

A missed jump? Well, so far no one could have won a Worlds title with it.

I am not completely sure what you mean here. Going strictly by the numbers, at 2011 Worlds Patrick could have omitted both his solo 4T and his solo 3A and still outpointed his rivals. He could have omitted his 4T+3T and his 3Lz and still won. He could have omitted his 3Lz and his 3F and his 2A+2T...and still won.

Well, maybe his PCSs wouldn't have been so high in that case.

Oh no, wait. PCSs are independent of the elements.

skatinginbc · Feb 22, 2012

"Can Todd Eldredge close the gap on Alexei Yagudin and Evgeni Plushenko?" That was a question I asked myself when I attended the 2001 Worlds in Vancouver. I was there when Todd skated with a flying speed, faster than his rivals if not everyone in the competition, and with passion and desire throughout his three phases of competition (qualifying, short, free). I was there when the audience gave him a standing ovation and booed at the scores he received for his near perfect free skate wherein the only "error" was his downgrading the opening quad to a clean triple (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEZyj0DM_5o). Alexei Yagudin and Evgeni Plushenko had already skated earlier. "The judges are missing the point about Presentation," said the commentator. I was there. I knew then that a new judging system was needed.

Can Takahashi close the gap on Patrick Chan?
Well, if Takahashi has a near perfect skate as Todd had in 2001 Worlds and is still beaten in PE by someone who has three visible flaws, then I will say another new judging system is needed.

seniorita · Feb 22, 2012

^ I have to watch Eldredge's skate again but Worlds 2001 Plush killed the fs and got SO also. I thought this was his best skated competition from the Q round!Yagudin was injured but I thought his programs were great.

Mathman said:
Oh no, wait. PCSs are independent of the elements.

Good one. What did you smoke? :laugh:

And I m confused with the sky is blue example. What color is it to debate it?

skatinginbc · Feb 22, 2012

seniorita said:
Yagudin was injured but I thought his programs were great.

Yagudin had 3 visible errors in the LP. He ran hot and cold. At one point the commentator even stated, "Looking tired, some fatigue sets in again". He however grabbed the audience's heart with his final footwork. Yagudin received standing ovation, as did Plushenko. Don't forget that the audience booed at Todd's low scores after they had watched Yagudin's performance. I had no problem with Yagudin getting a higher technical score or winning over Todd, but I wondered then what exactly was scored under the broad category of Presentation (or second mark) and thought that the ISU needed a new system to break up various skills under that category.

Mathman · Feb 22, 2012

seniorita said:
And I m confused with the sky is blue example. What color is it to debate it?

I coinfess that I had to read that post pretty carefully, too.

I think the point was this: The CoP is bad. The 6.0 system was bad, too.

Even as: The sky is blue. The sea is blue, too.

skatinginbc · Feb 22, 2012

seniorita said:
And I m confused with the sky is blue example. What color is it to debate it?

Sorry for the confusion :biggrin:

. I meant: The fact that 6.0 was imperfect does not discredit the criticism that NJS is imperfect.

Bluebonnet · Feb 22, 2012

skatinginbc said:
Sorry for the confusion. I meant: The fact that 6.0 was imperfect does not discredit the criticism that NJS is imperfect.

Sorry, it's IJS - International Judging System.

Mathman said:
When a skater falls on a quad attempt in the current system my reaction is, "Ooh, too bad. Well, it was a valiant effort anyway. Good for him for trying it. Close...but no cigar."

It's the "no cigar" aspect of sports that the ISU does not get.

But how do you show that you've acknowledged for trying it?

Mathman · Feb 22, 2012

^ Hearty applause.

Bluebonnet · Feb 22, 2012

Mathman said:
^ Hearty applause.

That's not good enough. It's a competition. The ultimate goal is to earn points as many as possible. So there must be some sort of incentives to induce more on trying it. Or they'd go to find other easier ways to earn points.

draqq · Feb 23, 2012

Takashi needs to up his technical consistency. He doesn't need two quads, as two solid triple axels (with Chan's one) makes up for his lack of a second quad. What he needs to do more is tack on triple toes at the end of his combos instead of measly double toes. Each double toe costs him 2.6 in base value plus a few tenths for GOE. Unless he learns a combination with a half-loop in it, he needs to make sure to do a three jump combination where he does a double-toe, double-loop at the very least.

As expressive as his long program is this year, it lacks speed throughout compared to Chan's. In an effort to match the mood of the music, his edges aren't as deep and the judges don't award as many skating skill points for slow edge changes.

Mathman · Feb 23, 2012

Bluebonnet said:
That's not good enough. It's a competition. The ultimate goal is to earn points as many as possible. So there must be some sort of incentives to induce more on trying it. Or they'd go to find other easier ways to earn points.

Here is how I look at it. In any sport an athlete who strives mightily but unsuccessfully deserves our applause for his effort. He does not deserve any points.

As for easier ways to earn points, let's say a skater has the choice of attempting a quad toe or of backing off with, say, a triple loop. A successful quad gets 10.3 points. A triple loop gets half that, 5.1 points. Suppose we changed the rules so that an unsuccessful quad gets 0 points. Risk and reward. The reward is 10.3 points. The risk is that you might get 0 points. If you are an athlete going for the championship, which would you do? Go for 10 points against the risk of getting nothing, or take the safer 5 points?

You get a big reward precisely because you took a big risk. That's the way it should be.

The way it is now, you get reward with no risk. You throw up a half-baked quad. If it works you get 10 points If it fails you still get 5 points. Where is the risk? Where is the sport?

draqq said:
What he needs to do more is tack on triple toes at the end of his combos instead of measly double toes. Each double toe costs him 2.6 in base value plus a few tenths for GOE.

The rules prevent him from putting a triple toe on the end of anything.

Daisuke's program already has two triple Axels, including a 3A+3T, and two triple flips. He cannot do another 3T anywhere in his program because you can repeat only two different kinds of triple jumps.

draqq said:
...he needs to make sure to do a three jump combination where he does a double-toe, double-loop at the very least.

His program already has a 3Lz+2T+2Lo combination.

In fact, there is not really any realistic way that Daisuke can score any more points than he already does. Hence -- no, Daisuke cannot catch Chan no matter what he does.

ivy · Feb 23, 2012

Well he could make sure he lands everything, especially a quad in both SP & LP, and tries his darnedest to maximize his GoEs. He's also leaving some points on the table with one of his spins iirc

mikeko666 · Feb 23, 2012

Mathman said:
Daisuke's program already has two triple Axels, including a 3A+3T, and two triple flips. He cannot do another 3T anywhere in his program because you can repeat only two different kinds of triple jumps.

Where is the other 3T? I can't recall.

deedee1 · Feb 23, 2012

Yes, you are right, Mathman.

Partick's base value on jumps is just above everyone's; not only because of 2 quads, but that 'killing' 3Lz+half Lo+3S sequence in the 2nd half. When he does this seqence, instead of the normal 3Lz (or F)+2T+2Lo, he can add extra 2A as his 8th jumping passage.

Dai cannot catch Patrick, but he can narrow the gap in base value by moving both 3As into the second half. 3A is a pretty consistent jump for Dai. Watching his free skate at 4CC, his stamina looked just okay to have two 3A in the 2nd half. It is only 10% of its base point, they may say, but all these little things do matter under CoP.

2 quads is not a realistic choice yet for Dai this season. Heading into the Worlds, this would be the best plan that he is doable right now. What do you think?

Boeing787 · Feb 23, 2012

mikeko666 said:
Where is the other 3T? I can't recall.

The 2nd 3T doesn't exist that's why you can't. The rules only allow two repeated quad or triples in a LP. Dai repeats 3A and 3F that's why he cannot repeat 3T.

ivy · Feb 23, 2012

mikeko666 said:
Where is the other 3T? I can't recall.

There isn't another one. 2 3A's and 2 3F's. Can only repeat 2 triple jumps (though you can have 3 jump combos or seq.)

hurrah · Feb 23, 2012

deedee1 said:
Yes, you are right, Mathman.

Partick's base value on jumps is just above everyone's; not only because of 2 quads, but that 'killing' 3Lz+half Lo+3S sequence in the 2nd half. When he does this seqence, instead of the normal 3Lz (or F)+2T+2Lo, he can add extra 2A as his 8th jumping passage.

Dai cannot catch Patrick, but he can narrow the gap in base value by moving both 3As into the second half. 3A is a pretty consistent jump for Dai. Watching his free skate at 4CC, his stamina looked just okay to have two 3A in the 2nd half. It is only 10% of its base point, they may say, but all these little things do matter under CoP.

2 quads is not a realistic choice yet for Dai this season. Heading into the Worlds, this would be the best plan that he is doable right now. What do you think?

Umm, I say that's high risk low return. It still would not have a higher base value than Patrick, and even if he lands both 3As, he will likely get less GOEs and that would cancel the 10% base point increase. If he skates clean, there is no one but Patrick who can beat him, but if he skates badly, he can be overtaken by other skaters.

Can Takahashi Close The Gap On Patrick Chan?

gkelly

skatinginbc

Mathman

Mathman

skatinginbc

seniorita

skatinginbc

Mathman

skatinginbc

Bluebonnet

Mathman

Bluebonnet

draqq

FigureSkatingPhenom

Mathman

ivy

mikeko666

deedee1

Boeing787

ivy

hurrah

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