International Challenge Cup - The Hague, Mar 8-11

Here's my two cents on Carolina:

1.) I was definitely irritated last season that Carolina seem to get magic points for watered down content last season.
2.) That totally changed for me this season and namely because of two very fantastic, well-choreographed programs this season. Both programs really highlight exactly why Carolina is a factored despite the lack of a lutz — the skating skills, ice coverage, speed, etc.
3.) I'd rather have Carolina's FS here or even from GPF than a very badly-choreographed 7-triple program from Alena Leonova, who basically does three flips.
4.) I've been talking alot about strategy and management lately, especially in defending Jason Brown, another skater who is very good but is criticized for his current lack of a 3A. Many people see Carolina's team strategy as "giving up" or "playing it safe." In contrast, I see it as more a rebuilding or a redevelopment of confidence, especially since she had an injury. Even when she was being a train wreak in 2010, you can tell that judges still acknowledged her skating skills/artistry. I think her team realized that she need to rebuild her jump arsenal, but as long as they had programs that highlighted her strengths, that she would still do really well. I think the strategy has worked. It is not her fault that her competitors could not rise to the challenge (or they weren't there do so). I think she will get the Lutz back. We're already seeing a second flip and she has been able to skate relatively clean programs; so I'm hoping that the Lutz is next.
5.) I get that for some of you it's much more fun to see 7-triple programs with 3-3. But for me, I'd like to see a well-executed 7-triple program with 3-3. I'd say Elizaveta T. has been the closest to that goal, but even then there are weaknesses — she still doesn't have great ice coverage and her choreography is not as
developed. I'm a big fan of Gracie Gold as well, but she is also still weak on the PCS side (namely choreography/interpretation; she has decent skating skills). Adelina and Julia are close to the whole package also. If all those girls develop more on the PCS AND maintain that tech content, Carolina will not be able to win with her current technical content.

Here's the ISU world standing list:

http://www.isuresults.com/ws/ws/wsmen.htm

Jeremy Abbott just earned 225 points for his efforts at Challenge, giving him a total of 3149 points, and 6th place overall.

Without those 225, he would have 2924 points, and would be in 7th place. Positions in the SP may still be set by world rankings, in which case, he has located himself in the last group of 6.

Furthermore, points go back 3 years, so these points will count towards his ranking when we get to the Olympics.
In fact, he should do a 2nd Senior B this year, for the points he would get there, and for the next 2 seasons.

http://www.isuresults.com/ws/ws/wsladies.htm

Alissa likewise is in 6th place, but her score did not affect her placing. It did, however, earn her 203 points on her world standings total.

On the season's list, it made a big change in her placing.
http://www.isuresults.com/ws/wr/wrladies.htm

She is currently in 11th place with 1128 points. Without those 203 points, she would have 925 points, which would put her in 18th place.

Abbott is also in 11th place this season with 1150 points. Without the 225 points, he would have 925 points, and would be in 19th place.
http://www.isuresults.com/ws/wr/wrmen.htm

Now if Abbott had placed 3rd at 4CC's, behind Patrick & Daisuke, like Ross Miner, he would have netted 680 points for that, so a Senior B for 4CC's is not a good swap, but it is better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.

Nadine said:

Thanks for the videos, I just watched Carolina & Alissa, and about 30 seconds of Valentina.

a.) Carolina is a dream, so glad I finally got to see her skate live at 2010 Skate America, so lovely in person as well. What can I say she shined like a million stars above.

b.) Alissa is so different now then she was in the past....calm, takes her time, holds every moment, exquisite to see.....but if she's injured and not able to give her best at Worlds, then she really should withdraw to give the next American in line the opportunity. Jmho. That said, can't wait to see her back in full competitive mode, complete with jumps, because when she's on she's easily right up there with the best in the world.

c.) No disrespect to Valentina, but she's not my type of skater, therefore I only watched the first 30 seconds of her FS. However, from the protocols I can see she earned her silver medal, Congrats! ^)


Now I'd like to say that I'm suspicious as to why Jeremy & Alissa even competed here in the first place, and what I've come up with is that the USFSA knows that each is injured and wanted to give them an *unofficial* test skate before Worlds to see where they are at right now with their skating and respective injury(s). From there will come some tough decisions. Jmho.

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I agree with your comments! I also really discovered Carolina when I saw her live at 2009 TEB; there's just something really graceful about her on the ice.

It was the first time I saw Alissa live. Despite the fact that her skate was a disaster (it also makes me feel really bad when skaters fall and don't get up instantly), there's definitely something about her calmness. Maybe it helped not being able to see her scared facial expressions. She really has the most beautiful smile. I really, really hope she can pull it together at Worlds or at least do enough.

Valentina is not my type of skater either, I wasn't hooked by her performance. But she's definitely earned it! She was on!

From interviews it seemed like coming to Challenge Cup was Jeremy's and Alissa's own decision, they wanted another competition before Worlds and it didn't sound like the USFSA pushed for it. It's way too late to get Czisny off the Worlds Team unless she withdraws. But honestly... she's probably still the best bet for the US. Though I agree that things aren't looking good :s Maybe now that everyone is expecting her to bomb, she'll surprise us all and have the skate of a lifetime.

I am pretty sure the Hague competition was not pushed by USFS. These elite level skaters do not need world rank to compete. They did two GP's, they did GPF, they got more than enough points for whatever. I think their coaches requested that they go to Hague (for whatever reason,maybe just for a small vacation before Worlds) as a compensation that USFS skipped Alissa for Zhang at 4CC. It turned out to be a bad idea and disaster for both Jeremy and Alissa. They should have stayed home and concentrate for Worlds since both of them were obviously "not ready".

Mrs. P - great post, I particularly appreciate your reasoning with point #4. Doris - thanks! This makes so much more sense to me now, really appreciated!

In hind sight, competing in this event, whose ever idea it was, didn't work out well for Alissa and Jeremy. Though it might have helped their ISU points, it couldn't have helped their confidence, momentum, or physical conditions for Worlds, nor the comfort level of their fans and USFSA. They would have many excuses for poor performances at the 4CC - fatigue, high altitude, and high level competition, none of which is applicable at The Hague. In a way, the dismal performances are puzzling as they were way under what could be reasonably expected of each and out of the realm of their abilities.

Let's hope whatever caused the disastrous under-performances will be ironed out and they regroup well enough for Worlds.

It is probably too soon to say if it was a mistake to send Alissa and Jeremy. Let's see how Worlds goes for them. Both are coming back from injury-Jeremy has only been back on the ice since 4CC, and practicing there (he was there as his coaches were there), he wasn't doing the harder jumps. So who knows how long he's been back doing the 3A and the 4T. The two weeks should help him. Not so sure about Alissa. Still, this should give them both plenty of motivation to train hard.

Also, the Jr Lady blogging for IceNetwork, mentioned they were skating without the usual warm up-which hindered her (she did win though). Maybe that also negatively impacted Jeremy and Alissa.

centerpt1 said:

It is probably too soon to say if it was a mistake to send Alissa and Jeremy. Let's see how Worlds goes for them. Both are coming back from injury-Jeremy has only been back on the ice since 4CC, and practicing there (he was there as his coaches were there), he wasn't doing the harder jumps. So who knows how long he's been back doing the 3A and the 4T. The two weeks should help him. Not so sure about Alissa. Still, this should give them both plenty of motivation to train hard.

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I absolutely second that. They just put themselves out there for a competition that doesn't matter that much. Sometimes you need to get it out of your system, it doesn't mean that everything is lost or that Czisny is back to where she was before the big comeback with the GPF-title. And if falling all over the place at a Senior-B means that you are done - well, then most skaters would have had to stop skating a long time ago.

Medusa said:

I absolutely second that. They just put themselves out there for a competition that doesn't matter that much. Sometimes you need to get it out of your system, it doesn't mean that everything is lost or that Czisny is back to where she was before the big comeback with the GPF-title. And if falling all over the place at a Senior-B means that you are done - well, then most skaters would have had to stop skating a long time ago.

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Just curious to know, who have fallen all over the place at a Senior B, especially any non European, and gone on to win Worlds or other major medals? Except maybe when they are early in their competitive careers.

^ What does European or non European have to do with meltdowns before Worlds?
Trewyn thanks for reports, I bet it was a great warm up for you before Worlds!
I m so glad Carolina has skated in so many competitions this season with her best ever programs, I cant have enough of her sp.

OT, but I m reading the last ten pages, what was the jump layout of the 80s that people compare to Carolina's? I dont know the ladies jump evolution at all from 80s till late 90s, didnt they do triples, or they didnt do combos with triples?

SkateFiguring said:

Just curious to know, who have fallen all over the place at a Senior B, especially any non European, and gone on to win Worlds or other major medals? Except maybe when they are early in their competitive careers.

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I didn't mean only Senior Bs. Just smaller competitions in general, be it a Senior B, Nationals, Japan Open, WTT... Anyone remember Yagudin at the Goodwill Games in 2001? And Chan had quite a few awful outings at summer competitions (basically senior Bs without the official stamp on them), also at GPs. Lambiel had some less than stellar performances at nationals, GPs and also once at Finlandia in 2002 - 11th - in the same season he came in 4th at Europeans. Kostner at Finlandia trophy is also an example, came in 3rd, but it was still pretty bad. Kozuka - reigning World Silver medalist - is also good at having a really bad outing from time to time, like scoring less than 200 points at the WTT in 2009. Asada at the Japan Open - another interesting story, if I were her I would stop doing that competition - in 2009 she scored barely above 90 in the freeskate and went on to become the Olympic Silver Medalist and World Champion that season.

I just think that it is really premature to draw big conclusions from one tiny competition. Neither is Joubert back just because he didn't fall all over the place, nor are Jeremy or Alissa out of the game just because they had some problems. Jeremy's SP score is still criminal though, as is Kostner's to a lesser amount. Which is my conclusion - stupid judging system! I am all about the artistic side of skating - but falls are falls and a Triple-Toe - Double-Toe stays the simplest combo in the elite skater's arsenal (provided there were no accidental singles), no matter how elaborate everything around it.

Thanks for clarifying. So you mean lesser competitions in general. I'm not writing Jeremy or Alissa off from the Hague. Whatever the speculations for up coming Worlds, it will he what each skater will bring on the ice on the days of the competitions that will count.

However, I beg to differentiate between this event and most of those you listed, mainly on the timing. Japan Open and summer events are pre-season and tryouts for new programs. The top skaters entered them do not even care about the placements but to get a general idea of judges' reception of their programs. E.g. this past summer Chan "competed" in a club event without even bothering to do his big jumps, even if some were happy that Mroz "beat" him. And of course even good skaters can have off days or meltdowns for various reasons. The event under discussion, however, is less than 3 weeks before Worlds, when programs are well seasoned and skaters are supposed to be be well prepared to peak, having proven themselves to qualify as entries, especially medalists from a strong skating federation like the US. They may not be conclusive, but the poor results from this competition are causes for much more concern than any pre or early season event.

Medusa said:

I just think that it is really premature to draw big conclusions from one tiny competition. Neither is Joubert back just because he didn't fall all over the place, nor are Jeremy or Alissa out of the game just because they had some problems.

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Hope springs eternal.

But I feel so awful for Alissa even so. (Not so much for Jeremy -- all he has to do is leave out the quad, concentrate on his triple Axels, and he'll be fine.) Alissa is so nice and she tries so earnestly to do her best. If there is a heaven, the (skate) gods will smile upon her in France. :yes:

silverlake22 said:

Dornbush and Mahbanoozadeh had a realistic chance of beating Rippon too, and actually, if Josh Farris had skated like he did at JW at Nationals he probably would have come close. Yes, others made mistakes at nationals, but I take issue with the fact that in his FS which was considered a good performance for Adam, and got a huge score, he only managed to produce one clean 3a (and it wasn't a pretty one), he doubled the quad attempt, he's never landed or even rotated a quad in international competition before, and his first 3a was UR.

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I meant after the SP - the only one with a realistic chance of beating Rippon was Miner. Dornbush was a mess in his SP. Mahbenoozadeh doesn't have the international rep and his long was full of mistakes that made it only Miner that had a shot.

Mathman said:

... Not so much for Jeremy -- all he has to do is leave out the quad, concentrate on his triple Axels, and he'll be fine.

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I definitely agree with you, it's obvious to me that in his recent attempts in doing the quad, he has been very tentative entering the jump and it affected the fluidity of his programme.

But without the quad, Jeremy's chances of medaling at Worlds are not good. He has to decide between playing it safe and go big or go home. It paid Kozuka well to land his best quad at Worlds last year even with a season of inconsistencies. Will Jeremy have the technical skills and confidence to go for it and, whatever the outcome of the quad, to still do his best for the rest of the program? That is the most important issue for Jeremy and it's a mental one. He has to keep his program no matter how he does his quad. Like Patrick.

^ I don't agree at all. Patrick can do a quad. Jeremy? Not so's you notice.

It is no disgrace to go with what you got. There are many ways to score points in the CoP besides the tried and true method of falling on quads. (Ask Lysacek.) Bring what you've got and make the other guy step up and beat you if he can. And anyway, you might get silver.

Jeremy's chances of medaling aren't good without a quad, but if he skates well and leaves out the quad I could see him finishing between like 4th-6th, which would still be good and would give us a chance at getting 3 spots back without putting unrealistic expectations on Rippon, who probably can't make top 5 even if he's perfect. The quad is a gamble, but with Jeremy's PCS, he doesn't need it to do well. The way I see it, he can leave out the quad and likely finish 4th-6th, or he can go for the quad, if he lands it, then yeah he might win silver or bronze, but if he doesn't and it affects the rest of his program, he could finish down around 8th-10th or maybe even lower. That's my outlook at least. Even with the quad it will be tough for him to make the podium just with the crazy deep field this year.

SkateFiguring said:

Just curious to know, who have fallen all over the place at a Senior B, especially any non European, and gone on to win Worlds or other major medals? Except maybe when they are early in their competitive careers.

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Daisuke Takahashi, who didn't do a great job at 2009 Finlandia (or 2009 NHK, for that matter) but went on to an Olympic medal and the World Championship. It's true that he was returning from injury. Javier Fernandez was not in great form at Nebelhorn this season, but he had a wonderful GP season, and I think a GPF medal counts as a major result for him, right? Tomas Verner medalled but did not skate well at Nebelhorn the year he won Euros.

No senior Bs, but neither Chan nor Buttle had a particularly inspired start to their seasons the year they won Worlds (yes, I know Chan did well results-wise; he wasn't skating well, though). On the ladies side, Mao Asada was not great on the GP circuit in 2009 but held it together at the big events.

Keep in mind that high profile skaters are less likely to do Senior Bs, and that there aren't many between Euros/4CCs and Worlds, so it's hard to find any parallels. I agree with Medusa that this event doesn't necessarily imply that Abbott/Czisny will skate poorly in Nice, though Czisny's record this season might be additional cause for concern.

centerpt1 said:

Also, the Jr Lady blogging for IceNetwork, mentioned they were skating without the usual warm up-which hindered her (she did win though). Maybe that also negatively impacted Jeremy and Alissa.

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Leah's blog was a fun read! I unfortunately didn't see her compete. But I can tell that the seniors all had a normal 6 minute warm-up. (I have some video footage that I can put on youtube if anyone's interested). No idea why the juniors didn't have a warm-up, probably because of the tight schedule. There was a practice rink in the building as well, so they got normal practice time as well.

Alissa and Jeremy both struggled in their respective warm-ups.