Of course she did. However if she were still viewed as the #4-#6 American she never would have gotten them, deserved or not.Originally Posted by mskater93
Of course she did. However if she were still viewed as the #4-#6 American she never would have gotten them, deserved or not.
ITA. Plus with the event in the US it would be hard to place Ashley too far below Mao since she is the national champ skating before a home country audience. The PCS gap was huge when they skated in Japan, so I'm curious to see how they are marked in an European event.
Ashley didn't have the attack in Japan when she faced Mao the first time that she did at 4CC. It's not that all of a sudden she's viewed as the American Champion so her PCS goes up a gazillion points. She was, at 4CC, in many respects, a totally different skater than earlier in the season in terms of speed, attack, polish, and cleanliness (she made some minor mistakes on jumps in Japan). If Ashley had been the #4 skater in the US but skated like that, she would have been CLOSE to the same score and still would have won, but I think it's a chicken and egg thing - if Ashley hadn't won Nationals she wouldn't have skated like that. It was like a switch went on when she won the US title and she's all of a sudden turned into a "LOOK AT ME" and "BEAT THIS" kind of skater in terms of presentation. Hopefully she can carry that mentality over into Worlds.
If Ashley had come 4th at U.S Nationals she never would have won 4CCs this year even had she done the exact same performances with the exact same spark and attack (which I agree would also be unlikely if she werent U.S Champion but that is aside my point). I would bet huge money on that. Keep in mind her win there wasnt a slam dunk, some people debated it, so it wouldnt have taken much to reverse it. I am sure she would have scored higher than any of her previous outings this year, with higher PCS regardless, but still not enough to win over someone like Mao skating quite well (even with some mistakes). Dont get me wrong, I am not saying she didnt deserve to win 4CCs (she did IMO) but lets not be naive to things please.
Last edited by pangtongfan; 03-13-2012 at 09:59 AM.
well it's called National reputation
and the fact that 2012 4CC was held in the US , she obviously had the highest chance of winning it.
This thread is completely ridiculous. Just remember a year ago, everybody was betting on Mirai Nagasu. And look what happened.
You cannot guess two years from now what will happen in the ever volatile US ladies field.
Totally disagree - Mao is the reigning Japanese Champion (so Japanese National Champion Rep points negate American National Champion Rep points) and has a much longer-standing well regarded reputation internationally than Ashley (multiple World Medals, OSM). If we are going to go that direction that it's reputation scoring, if it was anyone who had the highest chance of winning based on reputation, it was Mao. Ashley had to skate a near-perfect competition to beat Mao, even as US Champion, and needed Mao to make some mistakes to secure it. (I do not subscribe to National Reputation points as much as most of you seem to, though)
Herios is right, though, speculation this far out from Sochi is ridiculous. This is probably why 4C is being rehashed.
In 2008, the top two skaters at Nationals were Mirai Nagasu and Rachel Flatt. The two that went to the Vancouver games: Nagasu and Flatt. The bronze medalist in both seasons - Ashley Wagner.
That stated, a year ago, Nagasu had that mediocre Nationals skate and very few were betting on her.
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