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Thread: Predictions

  1. #16
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    Ice Dance

    1- Merly Davis/Charlie White
    2- Tessa Virtue/Scott Moir
    3- Natalie Pechalat/Fabian Bourzat
    4- Kaitlyn Weaver/Andrew Poje
    5- Maia Shibutani/Alex Shibutani
    6- Elena Ilinykh/ Nikita Katsalapov
    7- Ekaterina Bobrova/Dmitri Soloviev
    8- Anna Cappelini/Luca Lanotte
    9- Ekaterina Riazanova /Ilia Tkachenko
    10- Madison Hubbel / Zachary Donohue
    11- Pernelle Carron/Lloyd Jones
    12- Penny Coomes/Nicholas Buckland
    13- Isabella Tobias/Deividas Stagniumas
    14- Nelli Zhiganshina/Alexander Gazsi
    15- Julia Zlobina/Alexei Sitnikov
    16- Kharis Ralph /Asher Hill
    17- Sara Hurtado/Adria Diaz
    18- Xintong Huang/ Xun Zheng
    19- Lorenza Alessandrini/Simone Vaturi
    20- Siobhan Heekin-Canedy/Dmitri Dun

  2. #17
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    Women:

    Gold- Kostner
    Silver- Wagner
    Bronze- Asada



    Men:

    Gold- Chan
    Silver- Abbott
    Bronze- Fernandez


    Dance:

    Gold- Davis & White
    Silver- Virtue & Moir
    Bronze- Weaver & Poje


    Pairs:

    Gold- Volosozhar & Trankov
    Silver- Savchenko & Szolkowy
    Bronze- Kavaguti & Smirnov

  3. #18
    Off the ice Buttercup's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buttercup View Post
    Men
    I am hereby casting Jeremy Abbott in the Jeff Buttle role, Patrick Chan as Brian Joubert, whichever French guy you want as Johnny Weir, and a Japanese skater to Zayak himself out of contention (Dai, 2008; Nobu, seemingly every year). I am saying this to amuse myself, not because I see much of a chance of this outcome coming to be.
    I must amend my previous post to note that there is also a strong possibility of a Czech guy finishing 4th (2007, 2009 - Verner; 2010 & 11 - Brezina).

  4. #19
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    1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
    2. Volosozhar/Trankov
    3. Duhamel/Radford
    4. Pang/Tong
    5. Kavaguti/Smirnov
    6. Sui/Han
    7. Bazarova/Larionov
    8. Denney/Coughlin
    9. Berton/Hotarek
    10. Takahashi/Tran
    11. Dube/Wolfe
    12. Marley/Brubaker
    13. Hausch/Wende
    14. James/Cipres
    15. Vartmann/van Cleeve
    16. Della Monica/Guarise

  5. #20
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    Buttercup: I think Abbott really does have a chance to take this title in Nice. I think a clean, quadless SP from Abbott is very competitive with a Chan SP that features a bobble or two. That would set up a nice showdown between Abbott and Chan in the LP, where Chan will miss one quad, fall on the 3A, and trip up on his 3Lz-1L-3S combo. Abbott wins, and Hanyu and Fernandez duke it out for the bronze because Takahashi's jumps go all wacky, Kozuka still can't find his mojo, and the judges give Gachinski the SS marks that he deserves (low ones). The Czech boys will be unable to hold it together, and the hometown French boys won't be able to stand the pressure. And seriously: the Matrix? AGAIN?

    But, in reality, it will probably go down like this:

    1. Chan
    2. Takahashi
    3. Abbott
    4. Czech Boy #1
    5. Amodio
    6. Czech Boy #2
    7. Hanyu
    8. Kozuka
    9. Joubert
    10. Gachinski
    11. Rippon

  6. #21
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    ^^^ So, basically, if Abbott skates likes Chan and Chan skates like Abbott, Abbott wins. Duh. The formula applies to anybody: If Skater X skates like Chan and Chan skates like Skater X, Skater X wins.

    Gachinsksi at 10th? Seriously?

    I agree one of Czech boys will likely end up at 4th. Maybe I've just removed the curse?
    Last edited by SkateFiguring; 03-18-2012 at 04:31 PM.

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by doug_log View Post
    Chan will miss one quad, fall on the 3A, and trip up on his 3Lz-1L-3S combo
    If Patrick makes the rotations before missing, falling, and tripping up, he will still beat Abbott handily, even if Abbott goes clean by leaving out the quad.

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    If Patrick makes the rotations before missing.........
    Hmmmm, I have to try to wrap my head around that.

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by doug_log View Post
    Buttercup: I think Abbott really does have a chance to take this title in Nice. I think a clean, quadless SP from Abbott is very competitive with a Chan SP that features a bobble or two. That would set up a nice showdown between Abbott and Chan in the LP, where Chan will miss one quad, fall on the 3A, and trip up on his 3Lz-1L-3S combo. Abbott wins, and Hanyu and Fernandez duke it out for the bronze because Takahashi's jumps go all wacky, Kozuka still can't find his mojo, and the judges give Gachinski the SS marks that he deserves (low ones). The Czech boys will be unable to hold it together, and the hometown French boys won't be able to stand the pressure. And seriously: the Matrix? AGAIN?
    Lol. Jeremy will beat Patrick. GOOD one. Jeremy's season best is 155, Chan's lowest FS score was 155 and that was for a really ****** skate. Also Chan always breaks 80 at least for SP, no matter the mistakes. In reality, this is how it's gonna go down:

    1.) Chan
    2.) Fernandez/Hanyu
    3.) JOUBERT
    4.) Verner/Brezina
    5.) Takahashi (jumps MIA)
    6.) whichever wonderbaby doesn't come in 2nd
    7.) Amodio
    8.) other Czech
    9.) Abbott
    10.) Kozuka

    Chan wins, Joubert gets held up to win hometown bronze, a Czech comes in 4th as usual, Takahashi fades to 5th ala 2011 Worlds, Abbott is nervy on the jumps after being perfect at Nationals and winds up down in 9th also ala 2010 Olympics, Gatchinski makes some mistakes and finally gets the PCS he deserves so falls out of top 10, Amodio will be fairly strong but boring in the typical Morozov fashion, whichever Czech doesn't come in 4th will still make the top 10 as they seem to both be skating fairly well this season, either Fernandez or Hanyu will make the podium but not both, the other one will make enough mistakes to finish behind Takahashi who will be technically weak but PCS will hold him up, Kozuka won't be back to last year's form and will suffer from 3rd Japanese syndrome, and this barely make top 10. Voila. Rippon will probably finish like 12th or something, he hasn't been so impressive this season except for in his Nats SP which was very good. Contesti or KVDP will round out the top 12. Song will skate like 4CCs or last season rather than like on the GP, wind up way down the standings.
    Last edited by silverlake22; 03-18-2012 at 10:50 PM.

  10. #25
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    ^^ Enjoyable read and plausible scenario, except for 1:

    Takahashi fades to 5th ala 2010 Olympics,
    He didn't fade at the 2010 Olympics. Instead he rose to win the Bronze, with quite a few people thinking that he should have won, if only he did't try the quad or if falling on the quad wasn't penalized so much. Maybe you meant a la 2011 Worlds. If there should be another drama, it will not likely be a skate malfunction.

    And 2:

    Song will skate like 4CCs or last season rather than like on the GP, wind up way down the standings.
    Song was really sick and went on to 4CC without a recovery period and he suffered the high altitude severely. No such factors in play for Worlds.

    eta. Would Joubert be the hometown boy to be held up? Amodio seems to be the French flavour these days.
    Last edited by SkateFiguring; 03-18-2012 at 07:50 PM.

  11. #26
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkateFiguring View Post
    Hmmmm, I have to try to wrap my head around that.
    It's all in the numbers.

    Chan

    4T+3T 14.40 + 2 GOE
    4T (fall) 6.30
    3A (fall) 4.50
    3Lz+1Lo+3S (fall) 7.77
    3Lo 5.61 +1 GOE
    3F 5.83 +1 GOE
    3Lz 6.60 +1 GOE
    2A 3.63

    Total: 59.64

    Clean Abbott, no quad.

    3A+2T 9.80
    3F+3T 9.40
    3Lo 5.10
    3A 9.35
    3Lz+2T+2Lo 10.01
    3Lz 6.60
    3S 4.62
    2A 3.63

    Total: 58.51

    Of course Abbott can up his total by substituting 4T (fall) for his last 2A.

    But it's a risk. If Abbott under-rotaes, then 4T< (fall) is worth a tenth of a point less than 2A (3.2 versus 3.3).

    As we know, this makes the quad a huge risk. You risk a tenth of a point if you both under-rotate and fall.
    Last edited by Mathman; 03-18-2012 at 09:14 PM.

  12. #27
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    Hmmmm, I'm still trying to wrap my head around fully rotating a quad before "missing" it.

    I understand fully rotating a jump before falling or tripping on it, but missing.......

  13. #28
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    It's easy. Fully rotating a quad should be treated the same as under-rotation since it gives the skater an "unfair" advantage over others who can't rotate the quad fully.

  14. #29
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    ^ The point is that Patrick's jump layout makes him Godzilla to Abbott's Godzuki. Patrick does not need to be clicking on all eight cylinders -- six or seven is enough -- to outpoint his opponents.

    People get mad when it is suggested that Patrick can win even if he falls. But he can. It's simple arithmetic.

    (Not that I expect Patrick to fall, just playing along with doug_log's fantasizing.)

    Quote Originally Posted by Skatefiguring
    Hmmmm, I'm still trying to wrap my head around fully rotating a quad before "missing" it.
    4T+3T 14.40 + 2 GOE
    0T Patrick totally "misses' his 4T attempt, skids off an edge, and gets 0 points.
    3A (fall) 4.50
    3Lz+1Lo+3S (trips, hand down, -2GOE) 9.77
    3Lo 5.61 +1 GOE
    3F+3T 10.34 +1 GOE (Patrick improvises, being allowed to repeat the 3T having missed the 4T)
    3Lz 6.60 +1 GOE
    2A 3.63

    Total 59.85

  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkateFiguring View Post
    ^^ Enjoyable read and plausible scenario, except for 1:



    He didn't fade at the 2010 Olympics. Instead he rose to win the Bronze, with quite a few people thinking that he should have won, if only he did't try the quad or if falling on the quad wasn't penalized so much. Maybe you meant a la 2011 Worlds. If there should be another drama, it will not likely be a skate malfunction.

    And 2:



    Song was really sick and went on to 4CC without a recovery period and he suffered the high altitude severely. No such factors in play for Worlds.

    eta. Would Joubert be the hometown boy to be held up? Amodio seems to be the French flavour these days.
    Oops, my bad. I did mean Worlds, I will correct that. And I feel like Joubert is going to go out with a bang. Do really well here, then retire. Idk. Then Amodio can dominate the men's scene in France. I just think Joubert has one more really good competition left in him, and now is a good a time as ever. I know he's past his prime but I can see him quading his way to bronze here, I really can, apart from Chan, and Fernandez (save Euros), no one's been that great this season. Takahashi and Hanyu have each had one really strong competition each, but we all know they are both hot and cold skaters. Joubert can score high 150s for a strong skate with a quad or two, and this year, I can honestly see that being enough for bronze. Amodio refound his mojo at Euros, but otherwise he's been pretty disappointing this season, I'm not convinced he will deliver here. Abbott has been getting great PCS but apart from Nationals has not really delivered the kind of tech in his FS that he'll need to medal here. Gatchinski was good at Euros but just ok at his GPs. Song may not bomb but he's going to have to be spot on with his 3 quads to have a chance at cracking the top 5, and even if he wants to make top 10 he will need to hit the big tricks and minimize the mistakes because his PCS are not strong. I don't see Rippon landing/rotating the quad here, and his 3a is still problematic, he skated about as well as we can expect on the GP and his scores were just ok. If he skates well he can maybe finish in 8th or something at the highest. Brezina hasn't been stellar this season, Verner seems to be gaining strength but you never know with him, I think they can both make top 10 but I doubt either medals. Contesti and KVDP will need to hit everything to make top 10 and they are mistake prone so I don't see it happening this year. I guess the big question is Kozuka, but he hasn't competed internationally since NHK where he was good but probably not good enough to medal here, and with Hanyu's success I fear he may get a bit "dumped" on PCS. Idk, he could be a spoiler, but again, I haven't seen him skate in so long I have no idea what kind of form he is in. Also, not doing a quad in the SP and his tendency to make mistakes in SP may hurt him.

    This is why I think Joubert medals. His SP is well, ridiculous, but the quad combo will help him and his FS is good enough that if he lands the big tricks he should get big inflated PCS. This field is very deep but very inconsistent.

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