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Thread: Predictions

  1. #31
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    I know Patrick has one of the highest TES BV, with few edge and UR calls and few negative GOE, plus his almost unbeatable PCS, which is why he needs not be perfect to win. He has the content and the quality. Heck, he doesn't even need his quads to win. I know the math.

    However, how can he fully rotate a quad and be missing it? If he fully rotates a quad, he may miss the landing, or a perfect landing. Missing a jump means the jump is not done, not half done, almost done, not having 4 rotations done in the air.

    Semantics. But it's not funny any more.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    Oops, my bad. I did mean Worlds, I will correct that. And I feel like Joubert is going to go out with a bang. Do really well here, then retire. Idk. Then Amodio can dominate the men's scene in France. I just think Joubert has one more really good competition left in him, and now is a good a time as ever. I know he's past his prime but I can see him quading his way to bronze here, I really can, apart from Chan, and Fernandez (save Euros), no one's been that great this season. Takahashi and Hanyu have each had one really strong competition each, but we all know they are both hot and cold skaters. Joubert can score high 150s for a strong skate with a quad or two, and this year, I can honestly see that being enough for bronze. Amodio refound his mojo at Euros, but otherwise he's been pretty disappointing this season, I'm not convinced he will deliver here. Abbott has been getting great PCS but apart from Nationals has not really delivered the kind of tech in his FS that he'll need to medal here. Gatchinski was good at Euros but just ok at his GPs. Song may not bomb but he's going to have to be spot on with his 3 quads to have a chance at cracking the top 5, and even if he wants to make top 10 he will need to hit the big tricks and minimize the mistakes because his PCS are not strong. I don't see Rippon landing/rotating the quad here, and his 3a is still problematic, he skated about as well as we can expect on the GP and his scores were just ok. If he skates well he can maybe finish in 8th or something at the highest. Brezina hasn't been stellar this season, Verner seems to be gaining strength but you never know with him, I think they can both make top 10 but I doubt either medals. Contesti and KVDP will need to hit everything to make top 10 and they are mistake prone so I don't see it happening this year. I guess the big question is Kozuka, but he hasn't competed internationally since NHK where he was good but probably not good enough to medal here, and with Hanyu's success I fear he may get a bit "dumped" on PCS. Idk, he could be a spoiler, but again, I haven't seen him skate in so long I have no idea what kind of form he is in. Also, not doing a quad in the SP and his tendency to make mistakes in SP may hurt him.

    This is why I think Joubert medals. His SP is well, ridiculous, but the quad combo will help him and his FS is good enough that if he lands the big tricks he should get big inflated PCS. This field is very deep but very inconsistent.
    Yea, going for two quads in the SP gives Joubert some wonderful cushioning should he fully rotate the jumps. I want him to win bronze, but basically think that after Chan, it's a guessing game.

  3. #33
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skatefiguring
    However, how can he fully rotate a quad and be missing it? If he fully rotates a quad, he may miss the landing, or a perfect landing. Missing a jump means the jump is not done, not half done, almost done, not having 4 rotations done in the air.

    Semantics. But it's not funny any more.
    Please see my last post. I changed 4T (fall) to 0T (miss). Chan still beats Abbott.

    I also changed "trip" from "fall" to "stumble out of the second landing, with hand down."

    I left "fall" to mean "complete the rotations, then fall on the landing."

    I hope my new semantics better please you.

    Why does it make Chan fans mad when people point out how far ahead of the pack he is?

  4. #34
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    Why does it make Chan fans mad when people point out how far ahead of the pack he is?
    Why does it make people think Chan fans are mad when they are not?

    I just thought it was funny. The semantics that is.

    I just found that you did a calculation with a complete miss of his quad now that you mentioned it. My posts were not about if he would win with or without his quads or with how many mistakes. I simply could not wrap my head around "fully rotating a quad before missing it". 4 rotations is a lot of doing.

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    This field is very deep but very inconsistent.
    Exactly. That's why it's so hard to predict and why Chan is far ahead. He is the most consistent one - consistently raising his TES through the season while just about everybody else could not establish a pattern. They are all hot and cold, up and down, sometimes with good reasons and many times not. We all hope our favorites have gotten the bad skates out of the way and will bring their flawless best at the biggest event but nothing can be rationalized with complete confidence.

    eta. Personally I think 4CC was a bigger test than the Euro. Competition level was much higher at 4CC and it was physically demanding, testing the athletes' limits with the high altitude. I don't think underperformance there reflects the skaters' potential on sea level at Worlds but those who did well there certainly showed us what they were made of. The last groups really changed the energy and strutted their stuff, even the Dancers who brought it through their suffering. I was thoroughly impressed with Takahashi for his stamina even though he regards that's where he falls short of Patrick's performance. He cannot be written off as past his prime. However, his "missing" his quad and 3A is troubling because they were at the beginning of his FS before fatigue was a factor. Well, we are back to the inconsistency of the field.
    Last edited by SkateFiguring; 03-18-2012 at 11:44 PM.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkateFiguring View Post
    ^^ Enjoyable read and plausible scenario, except for 1:
    He didn't fade at the 2010 Olympics. Instead he rose to win the Bronze, with quite a few people thinking that he should have won, if only he did't try the quad or if falling on the quad wasn't penalized so much. Maybe you meant a la 2011 Worlds. If there should be another drama, it will not likely be a skate malfunction.
    I agree. Even if he did fall during the quad, I'm still quite positive (and hopeful!) that he'll make it to the top 3

  7. #37
    Custom Title spikydurian's Avatar
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    Guessing games are fun so long I don't have to lose an arm or a leg on it.
    Men:
    1) Patrick
    2) Dai
    3) Kozuka
    4) Fernandaz
    5) Gashinski
    Ladies:
    1) Caroline
    2) Mao
    3) Akiko
    4) Ashley
    5) Elena

  8. #38
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    Kozuka is the big question mark. I have no idea where to expect he'll place this year. He was soo strong in his FS all last season, but his SPs don't usually score that well, and this season he hasn't shown the same form or consistency he did last season. I could see him winning silver or not making the top 10. I do have a feeling Joubert will do well, regardless of if he medals or not. Abbott will likely step it up from Challenge Cup but I can't really see him recreating his nationals performances here, though I would love to be proven wrong. Also, was Euros a fluke or is Javi melting under the pressure? Is Gatchinski actually a medal contender outside of Russia? Brezina's a challenger and has the big tricks, and Verner beat him at Nationals and also has a quad, can they hold their own or will they be inconsistent as they often are? Has Hanyu's time come yet?

    Soo much to speculate.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post

    Chan

    4T+3T 14.40 + 2 GOE
    4T (fall) 6.30
    3A (fall) 4.50
    3Lz+1Lo+3S (fall) 7.77
    3Lo 5.61 +1 GOE
    3F 5.83 +1 GOE
    3Lz 6.60 +1 GOE
    2A 3.63

    Total: 59.64
    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    People get mad when it is suggested that Patrick can win even if he falls. But he can. It's simple arithmetic.
    That's bad. Very bad. We never had a world champion with 3 falls, didn't we? Also, they don't allow now to win the Worlds twice in a row (do they?). The World champion will be a new guy. Quite a surprising.

  10. #40
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    men

    Gachinski
    Chan
    Joubert/Amodio

    ladies

    Costner
    Asada
    Korobeinikova

    dance

    V/M
    B/S
    D/W

    pair

    V/T
    K/S
    S/S

  11. #41
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    To help those who don't follow dance to decide on their predictions, here are links to videos. They include the performance receiving the best score internationally and my guess at what performance, either nationally or internationally, might actually be better than that performance. Teams are listed alphabetically.

    In the case of teams who have made multiple adjustments to their programs, I have included more videos.

    Bobrova & Soloviev SD Europeans
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I74zmt9oucA
    Bobrova & Soloviev SD Cup of China (highest scoring)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_B85N140I8
    Bobrova & Soloviev FD Europeans
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veiyWu9onzE
    Bobrova & Soloviev FD Cup of China (highest scoring)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7OnNRdPDcSM

    Capellini & Lanotte SD TEB (highest scoring)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXlI6O8fo48
    Capellini & Lanotte FD Europeans (highest scoring)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8LBZZzHnwQQ

    Davis & White SD US Nationals (changes since GPF) (probably their best performance of this dance so far)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ojV-pletHI
    Davis & White SD GPF (highest scoring)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrMIDeFrbDs
    Davis & White FD US Nationals (their best performance of this dance so far)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfr4GAOjRdU
    Davis & White FD GPF (highest scoring)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PR9djYVHmVM

    Ilinykh & Katsalapov SD NHK (highest scoring)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrfhZbeBtz4
    Ilinykh & Katsalapov FD Europeans (highest scoring)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVu53QzM7nQ

    Pechalat & Bourzat SD GPF (highest scoring)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5U_K...80EBBA1FFDB485
    Pechalat & Bourzat side by side SD GPF & Euros
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RQz_DhRfrM
    Pechalat & Bourzat FD GPF (highest scoring)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMxoud-pH2k
    Pechalat & Bourzat FD Europeans
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCW8Naj2zkM


    Riazanova & Tkachenko SD Russian Nationals (I really liked this version at Russian Nationals)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBDw_...FBA25C8CC87234
    Riazanova & Tkachenko SD Europeans (highest scoring)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YZsPorELJo
    Riazanova & Tkachenko FD Europeans (highest scoring)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EF_Je8ez0uA
    Riazanova & Tkachenko FD Russian Nationals


    Shibutani & Shibutani SD 4CC's
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGwmcSLaevk
    Shibutani & Shibutani SD US Nationals (probably their best of this dance so far; hugely different than GPF program)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tfv_ACXZ3JA
    Shibutani & Shibutani SD GPF (highest scoring)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSjeup2A6Ns
    Shibutani & Shibutani FD US Nationals
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqmhO1MszkY
    Shibutani & Shibutani FD 4CC's
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEbslHn0-js
    Shibutani & Shibutani FD GPF (highest scoring)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zov69Gw_NLU

    Virtue & Moir SD Skate Canada (their highest scoring SD this season)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfAIzFJB14s
    Virtue & Moir SD 4CC's
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxBoyQgZ8ZY
    Virtue & Moir SD Canadian Nationals
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2NC3gqKoenA
    Virtue & Moir FD 4CC's
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zpPtd7EkPs
    Virtue & Moir FD GPF (their highest scoring)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJXhEkhO1NU

    Weaver & Poje SD Canadian Nationals
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-HvumYJyZY
    Weaver & Poje SD GPF (highest scoring)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_iUeA22cxw
    Weaver & Poje FD GPF (highest scoring)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=moZKIEiGPdM
    Weaver & Poje FD 4CC's
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8okkdybjyKQ
    Last edited by dorispulaski; 03-20-2012 at 12:33 PM.

  12. #42
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    Men
    1. Patrick Chan (he wins everything these days)
    2. Artur Gachinski (if he skates as he did in Euros)
    3. Javier Fernandez (if he overcomes the pressure of being a top contender)

    I think Takahashi will make the podium easier than my second and third but that's just how I feel

    Ladies
    1. Carolina Kostner (she is really good this season, and deserves the gold)
    2. Ashley Wagner (it seems like she is getting better and better, would be very nice to see her taking silver)
    3. Mao Asada (maybe Akiko will replace her and take the bronze)

    Polina Korobeynikova and Alena Leonova really have the potential to make podium. If Polina skates a clean short program with her Euro's fs, I can see her even getting a silver medal. Alena is a really good skater even people on this forum don't like her that much. She sells her programs so when she is on I think she can pass everybody except Carolina. This year is definetely Kostner's year, and she was even better than earlier in the Challenge Cup. Also, it will be really good to see Viktoria Helgesson skate her fs like she did in the Euros but without under-rotations.

  13. #43
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    Pairs

    1- Aliona SAVCHENKO / Robin SZOLKOWY
    2- Tatiana VOLOSOZHAR / Maxim TRANKOV
    3- Yuko KAVAGUTI / Alexander SMIRNOV
    4- Wenjing SUI / Cong HAN
    5- Meagan DUHAMEL / Eric RADFORD
    6- Qing PANG / Jian TONG
    7- Vera BAZAROVA / Yuri LARIONOV
    8- Caydee DENNEY / John COUGHLIN
    9- Narumi TAKAHASHI / Mervin TRAN
    10- Stefania BERTON / Ondrej HOTAREK
    11- Mary Beth MARLEY / Rockne BRUBAKER
    12- Vanessa JAMES / Morgan CIPRES
    13- Jessica DUBE / Sebastien WOLFE
    14- Mari VARTMANN / Aaron VAN CLEAVE
    15- Maylin HAUSCH / Daniel WENDE
    16 - Stacey KEMP / David KING

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by romanoff81 View Post
    Men:
    Gold Patrick Chan

    Silver Arthur Gachinski

    Bronze Daisuke Takahashi

    Ladies:
    Gold Carolina Costner

    Silver Mao Asada

    Bronze Ashley Wagner

    Pairs
    Gold Savchenko and Szokolwi

    Silver Tatiana Voloshoshar and Maxim Trankov

    Bronze Kawaguchi and Smirnov

    Ice dance
    Gold Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir

    Silver Davis and White

    Bronze Weaver and Poje or Pechalat and Bourzat(status uncertain)
    that's my choice as well. I'm not that sure about Artur's 2nd place though...he might not medal this year.

  15. #45
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    <Pairs>

    What I hope for:

    1 Yuko/Sasha
    2 Aolina/Robin
    3 Tatiana/Maxim

    My predictions:

    1 Aolina SAVCHENKO/Robin SZOLKOWY
    2 Tatiana VOLOSOZHAR/Maxim TRANKOV
    3 Yuko KAVAGUTI/Sasha SMIRNOV

    My guess is if Aolina & Robin can skate almost clean, judges will give them the Gold once again, in thanking to their unique styles, superior skating skills and contribution to the pair descipline all these years. Come 2012-13 season, my bet is judges will start holding up Tatiana & Maxim no matter what, and the Russian pair remains simply 'unbeatable' at every single competition till Sochi.

    As I wote in another thread, Yuko & Sasha are my sentimental favorite for the Gold.
    When Russia seemingly had no other top pair teams after Totmianina/ Marinin, and desperately needed spots at Worlds and Vancouver, it was Yuko & Sasha who did everything for the federation. All the efforts, hard works and sacrifices they made should deserve at least, one World title. And this year's might be their best and last chance for the title.
    I really really wish they will skate 'lights out' and get the Gold with two clean skates. Fingers crossed!

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