I like this tea but he has had really poor showings this season. He can still bring it at Worlds though, he's that good. Unfortunately and realistically, it'd be a difficult feat in a season with few and disappointing competitions.2. Kozuka (not my cup of tea but he was really-really good this season)
Originally Posted by SkateFiguring
i don't see how indicative a skaters showing in October can be for how he will compete 6 months after that?
For example take Joubert, who did zippo all year long until the ice challenge and suddenly he is landing quads.
Kozuka's 2 GP and his Nationals scores were 212.09, 235.02, and 250.97, hardly indicative of podium possibility. But I am not counting him out. His ISU SB is #8, 7th among Worlds competitors some of whom have nice momentum going. Joubert's scores were not impressive either though ironically he has received higher PCS than Kozuka this season. His SB is #24 at 207.83, 19th among Worlds competitors. He is lower than the three Junior Worlds medalists.
Last edited by SkateFiguring; 03-26-2012 at 12:42 PM.
The mometum is hardly a good idicative either. Fernandez skated well in fall and suddenly at Europeans fell apart.
This a sport where they skate on a slippery stuff. Anything can happen.
I'm not predicting, just making and stating observations of what already happened.
Oh, yes, my mistake, thank you. Somehow in my mind this seaon got switched with the previous one. However, I do think he has a shot at the medal and if he skates cleanly he can get close to Chan. Both are the personification of the COR's principles
I'm surprised that most people pick Dai either 1st or 2nd. Chan is pushing him to up his jumps, and he's not very consistent on his jumps, esp the quads. If Dai skates for himself (meaning less difficult jumps) he's most likely clean and may be on the podium. If Dai skates trying to catch Chan (meaning going all out with quads), he could make tones of mistakes and off the podium, just like last year at World. I'd say the same for Abbott. It's their choice, be safe and be clean, or trying to go all out, all or nothing. Dai is not consistent with his jumps, and Abbott has not proved himself at World stage yet.
IMO
1- Patrick Chan
2- Daisuke Takahashi
3- Jeremy Abbott
4- Javier Fernandez
5- Yuzuru Hanyu
6- Michal Brezina
7-Artur Gashinski
8-Florent Amodio
9- Brian Joubert
10- Takahiko Kozuka
11- Adam Rippon
12- Nan Song
13- Tomas Verner
14-Kevin van der Perren
15- Kevin Reynolds
16- Samuel Contesti
17- Denis Ten
18- Sergei Voronov
19- Peter Liebers
20- Alexander Majarov
1- Carolina Kostner
2- Mao Asada
3- Akiko Suzuki
4- Ashley Wagner
5-Alissa Czisny
6- Alena Leonova
7- Polina Korobeynikova
8- Kanako Murakami
9- Elene Gedevanishvili
10- Amelie Lacoste
11-Ksenia Makarova
12- Viktoria Helgesson
13- Valentina Marchei
14- Min Jeong Kwaw
15-Yretha Silete
16- Kexin Zhang
17- Sarah Hacken
18- Sonia Lafuente
19- Juulia Turkkila
20- Natalia Popova
Ice Dance
1- Merly Davis/Charlie White
2- Tessa Virtue/Scott Moir
3- Natalie Pechalat/Fabian Bourzat
4- Kaitlyn Weaver/Andrew Poje
5- Maia Shibutani/Alex Shibutani
6- Anna Cappelini/Luca Lanotte
7-Elena Ilinykh/ Nikita Katsalapov
8- Ekaterina Bobrova/Dmitri Soloviev
9- Ekaterina Riazanova /Ilia Tkachenko
10- Kharis Ralph /Asher Hill
11-Madison Hubbel / Zachary Donohue
12- Pernelle Carron/Lloyd Jones
13- Penny Coomes/Nicholas Buckland
14- Isabella Tobias/Deividas Stagniumas
15- Nelli Zhiganshina/Alexander Gazsi
16- Julia Zlobina/Alexei Sitnikov
pairs
1- Aliona SAVCHENKO / Robin SZOLKOWY
2- Tatiana VOLOSOZHAR / Maxim TRANKOV
3- Meagan DUHAMEL / Eric RADFORD
4-Yuko KAVAGUTI / Alexander SMIRNOV
5- Wenjing SUI / Cong HAN
6- Qing PANG / Jian TONG
7- Narumi TAKAHASHI / Mervin TRAN
8-Vera BAZAROVA / Yuri LARIONOV
9- Caydee DENNEY / John COUGHLIN
10- Stefania BERTON / Ondrej HOTAREK
11- Mary Beth MARLEY / Rockne BRUBAKER
12- Jessica DUBE / Sebastien WOLFE
13-Vanessa JAMES / Morgan CIPRES
14- Mari VARTMANN / Aaron VAN CLEAVE
15- Maylin HAUSCH / Daniel WENDE
16 - Stacey KEMP / David KING
My Prediction
Men
1. Chan
2. Gashinski (If he skated like Euro)
3. Japanese Guy
If everybody skate clean
Chan - Daisuke - Abbott
My hope - Japanese sweep in any order.
Ladies
1. Carolina
2. Ashley
3. Mao (Becasue of Shin Amano)
If everybody is clean and no egde call or only a egde call for Mao luzt
Mao - Carolina - Ashley
My hope - Akiko Mao Carolina in any order.
Pair - Alina Robin/ Tatiana Maxim/ Sasha Yuko or Sui Han
My hope Yuko sasha for gold!
The reason that I expect of Kozuka includes this video, TV program of February 11, 2012.
小塚孝彦【特集】 4回転の新たな感覚 - Takahiko KOZUKA【Special feature】New feeling of Quad jump
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4D8PiOFOmfs
3:30 Comparison of Kozuka's quad of the first half this season and the recent.
5.40 Quad-triple 4T-3T jump.
6:35 4T,4T-2T , in the National Athletic Meet.
The detailed content is as follows. Because he has a faithful character, he does not make such a remark without very confidence to oneself.
0:40 The arrival of the Quad generation. By rule revision after the Vancouver Olympic Games, risk deducted points of by failure was reduced, and difficult jumps came to be evaluated more, so many skaters come to work on it.
1.10 Takahiko said; "Quad is required...in world now."
Quad became the necessity for victory. Takahiko Kozuka challenges the fierce fight.
Kozuka which won a silver medal by the world championship of the last year became equal with top skaters.
1.40 T; "At the time of world championship(2011), I was able to jump accidentally, ...timing and condition of the power matched and were able to jump."
"But, quad became so necessarily, at that time. ...It is natural, if I talk in an insolent way."
That success of him, it was done in Japanese championship 2011. It was a successful jump for the first time this season, for him.
2.22 T; "Quad which I did by the Japanese championship was natural unlike a case of the world championship(2011) accidental. I controlled my body by myself and was able to jump for granted."
The quad jump that he was able to never succeed in in the first half in this season. But now, why was he able to jump for granted?
2.55 T;"About a timing for myself. Though I intended to understand it by myself, actually, it was slightly earlier than it to be right."
It was the timing when he jumped.
3.18 T; "It's 1,2,3,4jump! so far. But now, 1,2,3･･･! around 3.2!?"
This is his quad of the first half in this season.(He jumped, but fell.) In contrast, he succeeds in the Japanese championship. He jumped in a one early timing. It's clear at a glance, and it is totally different.
4.32 T; "It is a timing after I put the weight on the right foot, really for an instant. After I turned three times, there was the sense that the weight was carried on to the right foot most. The feelings that power begins at a stretch POM like time when I pull rubber and separated it."
The advantage of jumping just after a turn is easy to put a center of gravity on the right foot, and there is a twist to the upper body, and power piles up. It is the secret of the success to make a better condition in this way. In fact, Daisuke Takahashi and Patrick Chan and Nan Song and others take a similar method.
6.03 T; "I still wonder by such a jump whether it is good. But the fact that it can land at is reliable. Therefore I do not fail if there are this timing and feelings."
And, as for him, time to try ability came since Japan championship. He challenged quad two times and landed. There was slight underrotated judgment. But it became big confidence of his own to have landed.
7.15 T; "It is big progress for oneself that I was able to adopt quad two times for a free program. Though I was glad, as for it, I want to practice being enough calmly from now on."
END
Last edited by kilyca; 03-27-2012 at 06:42 AM.
THANK YOU! kilyca
You know, I had the feeling all along that Taka will come to this worlds after being absent on the world scenne for several months as prepared like in Moscow and will surprise many again, because he is a wonderful technician and he shouldn't just get lost in the shuffle.
Some posters amused me here with their prediction. placing him 10 or so.
If he will have a reliable quad going forward and more so will be having 2 of them in his LP, he will be a big challenger.
Kozuka is one of the best in the world and can never be counted out. His intrinsic abilities and qualities are always there. His disadvantages this season seem to be
1) programs that took him a long time to master and so far in competitions he has not connected fully to it and in turn connected it to the judges and audiences, suffering such low PCSI've been protesting for him all season. He needs to raise both his TES and PCS. This video report focuses on his working on his quads which of course could help his TES and indirectly his PCS especially if it imparts confidence to him. However, he cannot count on accidental success two years in a row, (maybe?
,) so getting the quad consistent and reliable will go a long way to boost every aspect of his skating - technical, mental, and presentation wise.
2) lack of international competitions as he did not go to the GPF or the 4CC, missing out competition practices, judges' feedback and momentum. However, he could turn this into an advantage by spending more time training and cutting down travel fatigue and demands on the body.
Good luck and best wishes to Takahito.
My feeling is when Suzuki and Kozuka were left of the 4CC roster, it was a deliberate decision,to leave them time to prepare for Worlds.Kozuka is one of the best in the world and can never be counted out. His intrinsic abilities and qualities are always there. His disadvantages this season seem to be
1) programs that took him a long time to master and so far in competitions he has not connected fully to it and in turn connected it to the judges and audiences, suffering such low PCS
2) lack of international competitions as he did not go to the GPF or the 4CC, missing out competition practices, judges' feedback and momentum. However, he could turn this into an advantage by spending more time training and cutting down travel fatigue and demands on the body.
Good luck and best wishes to Takahito.
This year's 4CC was particularly testing at high altitude which could cause physical problems as well as incurring lower scores on record as it's an unlikely place to do one's best. It was certainly not a place to send Hanyu or others with stamina issue. Witness Song's experience there. (I don't think stamina is usually an issue for Song but he had no chance to fully recover from being sick before 4CC.) It was feasibly a good thing Kozuka didn't go there.
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