Results 1 to 11 of 11

Thread: Men's Preview and Contenders

  1. #1
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Posts
    555

    Men's Preview and Contenders

    In Nice 2000, Stojko was back and did well to capture the silver medal, the showdown was between the 2 russians of Yagudin and Plushenko. Plushenko being the favourite - but it was not to be his day which is very unlike Plushenko who normally is very consistent, this was a rare thing for him and he saw himself out the medals - that made the way for Yagudin who changed his Free to "Tosca" and struck GOLD for his third title, Michael Weiss of the US has a solid program to steal bronze from Plushenko. From this event my memory is of the wonderful Stannick Jeanette of France who delighted the crowd with his wonderful "Solo" LP.

    This time around - I cannot believe I would have said Plushenko is here 12 years on and would have been a medal contender here after winning Europeans once again on his 2nd comeback. The "King" has not entered the worlds since 2005 (which he withdrew after SP) - his last world chance must surely be in 2013 before he heads for Sochi (Injury free of course).

    Enter the defending champion Patrick Chan who lets face has taken the mens discipline to another level and maybe Plushenko would have found him very tough to beat here on evidence of Chan's season. Patrick just puts everything out there with great speed and flow with no breathing spaces, the transitions are second to none and the judges love him. He is the overwhelming favourite in Nice of the 4 disciplines and it would be a SHOCK if he did not win here - that is if he nails all his content. SOMETHING I do not want to see is for Patrick to win with 2 or 3 falls - If that does happen the COP needs to be looked at by the ISU!!

    Daisuke Takahashi Is probably the likely challenger to Chan, but Dai needs to nail everything to get close to him and might need a solid quad to take his 2nd title. Love both his programs even though Blues for Klook is an overused - dangerous choice to use but Dai somehow has made it his own - with lovely touches and nuances to the program. I would love Dai to win but maybe Chan is out on his own.

    First tier of other medal contenders:

    Artur Gachinski - Seems to be a big performer on the biggest stage, and comes here as Russian No1. I love Artur's programs this year - a big step from last year - just adore his LP entitled "The Demon" that suits him really well, still learning I feel and sometimes still looks Junior, needs to work on his artistry and steps in between but technically can be very good.

    Javier Fernandez WOW!! Javier, what a transformation, like Wagner in the Ladies Javi has gone from strength to strength with the help of a certain Mr Orser. Love Javi's programs and I think his Jazzy SP is one of my fav's this year. If you can remember I touted him as favourite for Euro's and was surprised the nerves got the better of him. I feel he will redeem himself here and should get a top 8 finish - if not sneak in for that bronze medal.

    Takahiko Kozuka It was a hard hard choice to round the top 5 of first tier skaters but I have put Kozuka in here. I just feel like Artur he is a big performer on the big stage and seems to pull something out the bag when it matters. Silver medalist last time around. I think Takahiko will struggle to retain that spot and not sure on the programs this year - even the outfits - that look a bit old fashioned. although his Nausicaa LP is growing on me, but surely that music belongs to Lu Chen.

    the best of the rest:

    Jeremy Abbott A lovely artistic skater that does struggle mentally, it can either be hot or cold with Abbott - I am just hoping he will be on form here, he has the talent to be at the top of the pile. The SP is the best out there so if he nails that he has a chance, the Muse LP is growing on me - but I feel his Tango four Seasons LP came too early - that was pure class. Would have loved to have put him in the first tier but I feel Jeremy might fall short here.

    Adam Rippon Another US skater that oozes class, and has some wonderful arm over the head technique to his jumps which I adore. Still some sameness about Adam I wish he would be more original in his music choices as i am not a lover of his SP or LP. Can surprise if he is on form.

    Michal Brezina Technically very proficient he seems to make it look very easy but can let him down from time to time - nerves seem to get the better of him, I like his SP but like Rippon the music choices are very suspect - nothing original. Still needs to work on his artistry but if he pulls off the quad and axel and triple triples he should be in the mix.

    Yuzuru Hanyu Another Japanese powerhouse, I love Hanyu and I hope he does well. I love both his programs especially his SP which is full of emotion - love the speed and flow on the ice - and was wondering to place him in that Kozuka place of the top five but I feel his time will come but not yet - he may be regarded still as the number 3 here at Nice.

    Florent Amodio well you might have thought that I might have said Joubert to round out the top 10 but I feel Amodio is the strongest for the home challenge here as I feel Brian has opted for his very overused Matrix LP which I feel is dated now and past its prime. Amodio is not having a good season after a breakout season last year but managed to capture the bronze at Euro's to everyone's surprise including his own. I am glad he changed his SP this time to "Tears in the Sun" and I think this suits him very well, some modifications to his free especially at the beginning to an arranged piano piece by S Damiani - and this is much better too. I hope he does well because he does capture the crowd.
    Last edited by russell30; 03-20-2012 at 09:02 AM.

  2. #2
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Posts
    3,008
    Quote Originally Posted by russell30 View Post
    SOMETHING I do not want to see is for Patrick to win with 2 or 3 falls - If that does happen the COP needs to be looked at by the ISU!!
    Not necessarily. What if every top skater had at least one fall?

  3. #3
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Posts
    159
    I just put up my full preview up at http://icemusings.blogspot.com/2012/...s-preview.html with bios for all the competitors. I think bronze is going to be a real horse race with several skaters with a real shot at it.

  4. #4
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    4
    Quote Originally Posted by russell30 View Post
    SOMETHING I do not want to see is for Patrick to win with 2 or 3 falls - If that does happen the COP needs to be looked at by the ISU!!
    If Chan wins with 2-3 falls, it could be because other skaters ALSO have falls. It doesn't prove there's something wrong with CoP. CoP wasn't designed for Chan.

    Daisuke Takahashi Is probably the likely challenger to Chan, but Dai needs to nail everything to get close to him and might need a solid quad to take his 2nd title.
    Might need? Now, if he wins without a quad meanwhile all others hit theirs , there IS something wrong with the CoP that ISU should be looked at.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bluebonnet View Post
    Not necessarily. What if every top skater had at least one fall?
    Only Chan's falls count?

  5. #5
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    1,770
    Latest news on Takahiko Kozuka, broadcasted last night on Fuji TV, with Shizuka commenting on him and Patrick.
    Also feasturing Yuka Sato.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i98N_iRm9Zk

    Takahiko tried a quad in SP (fall), and two quads in LP (UR calls) at a local competition in February.
    His team has not decided yet whether he would go for 3-quad programs in Nice, but says it is a good strategy to have 3 quads as an option.

    Good luck in Nice, Takahiko!
    Last edited by deedee1; 03-25-2012 at 07:13 PM.

  6. #6
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Posts
    3,008
    Quote Originally Posted by yellownote View Post
    Only Chan's falls count?
    Often look like this in some people's posts here.






    ETA: Jackie Wang article:

    Worlds preview (men): Can anyone topple Chan?
    Last edited by Bluebonnet; 03-25-2012 at 10:35 PM.

  7. #7
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Posts
    5,428
    Mr. Wang's two articles re. Men at Worlds are big on plans on paper but he needs to look at real facts. He has Chan, Takahashi, and Abbott with equal jump BV for SP whereas the reality is that only Chan has executed his plan at every competition. Takahashi attempted and failed his quads at GPF and 4CC and had to come back from 5th and 3rd, much harder to do at Worlds. He had a great success with 4T/3T in his Nationals SP but fell 3 times in the LP, spilling over to another 3 falls at Japan Super Challenge. Abbott tried his SP 4T only once and fell twice plus messing up just about all his LP jumps. Their LP quads have been inconsistent but Mr. Wang somehow believes they would miraculously perform their quads successfully in both programs at Worlds while also executing the rest of the programs flawlessly.

    He has Fernandez as a dark horse but outside of his Euro meltdown, Fernandez has had the most consistent TES and PCS that is close to the three he considers real podium contenders. To me, Fernandez is a definite threat, especially against the technically inconsistent Takahashi and Abbott.

    Both Takahshi and Abbott have to decide between competing against Chan or against the whole field. My strategy would be to be conservative to assure a medal and hope for Gold if Chan were to beat himself by faltering badly. Wang's assuming they will risk Gold or nothing. Actually he does not seem to realize their risks as experienced.

  8. #8
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Posts
    3,008
    If Abbott had a successful quad in SP, it'll boost his confidence greatly. But it is extremely risky to him by doing it as quad is not a reliable jump for him. So I don't think Abbott should try quad in SP if he wants to stay on the podium. Takahashi could take such risk because he has had one successful quad-triple in SP at Japanese Nationals this season. But Takahashi's quad stability is not much higher than Abbott's. It will comes down to how they skate at the right time in the right place. So I agree with SF, they should not focus on beating Chan. They should focus on getting through their own skating with the technical contents they are comfortable with. And in the meantime, hope Chan make mistakes and fall off by himself.

    In fact, I don't even think it's correct to single out Abbott from the rest of the field. Abbott, though capable of a lot, is in the mix of 5 - 6 top skaters such as Fernandez, Kozuka, Hanyu, Joubert, and Gachinski. Song is probably still affected by his illness. Otherwise, Song could be the dark horse.

  9. #9
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Aug 2003
    Location
    Greater Boston, MA
    Posts
    782
    I agree with you that Wong is overvaluing Takahashi and Abbott versus the rest of the field. He's right that Takahashi & Abbott are the best artists in the field, but they also need the jumps. It's one thing to PLAN technical content equal to Chan, another thing entirely to actually complete it. And alas, neither Dai nor Jeremy have succeeded yet this season in performing all their planned technical content, especially the magic combo of quad in SP + quad in LP. Abbott in particular is very inconsistent technically, which Wong's analysis ignores.


    Quote Originally Posted by SkateFiguring View Post
    Mr. Wang's two articles re. Men at Worlds are big on plans on paper but he needs to look at real facts. He has Chan, Takahashi, and Abbott with equal jump BV for SP whereas the reality is that only Chan has executed his plan at every competition. Takahashi attempted and failed his quads at GPF and 4CC and had to come back from 5th and 3rd, much harder to do at Worlds. He had a great success with 4T/3T in his Nationals SP but fell 3 times in the LP, spilling over to another 3 falls at Japan Super Challenge. Abbott tried his SP 4T only once and fell twice plus messing up just about all his LP jumps. Their LP quads have been inconsistent but Mr. Wang somehow believes they would miraculously perform their quads successfully in both programs at Worlds while also executing the rest of the programs flawlessly.

    He has Fernandez as a dark horse but outside of his Euro meltdown, Fernandez has had the most consistent TES and PCS that is close to the three he considers real podium contenders. To me, Fernandez is a definite threat, especially against the technically inconsistent Takahashi and Abbott.

    Both Takahshi and Abbott have to decide between competing against Chan or against the whole field. My strategy would be to be conservative to assure a medal and hope for Gold if Chan were to beat himself by faltering badly. Wang's assuming they will risk Gold or nothing. Actually he does not seem to realize their risks as experienced.

  10. #10
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    84
    Quote Originally Posted by SkateFiguring View Post
    Both Takahshi and Abbott have to decide between competing against Chan or against the whole field. My strategy would be to be conservative to assure a medal and hope for Gold if Chan were to beat himself by faltering badly. Wang's assuming they will risk Gold or nothing. Actually he does not seem to realize their risks as experienced.
    OMG, I wrote pretty much the same thing in the Prediction thread, except you put it way better than I did, lol. Yup, going all out, all or nothing, or be safe and clean and medal.

    Based on the past posts, it's clear that Wong's not a Chan fan. It's not surprising that his latest article to indicate so.
    Last edited by blainechan; 03-26-2012 at 11:18 PM.

  11. #11
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Posts
    9,495
    Quote Originally Posted by deedee1 View Post
    Latest news on Takahiko Kozuka, broadcasted last night on Fuji TV, with Shizuka commenting on him and Patrick.
    Also feasturing Yuka Sato.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i98N_iRm9Zk

    Takahiko tried a quad in SP (fall), and two quads in LP (UR calls) at a local competition in February.
    His team has not decided yet whether he would go for 3-quad programs in Nice, but says it is a good strategy to have 3 quads as an option.

    Good luck in Nice, Takahiko!
    Wow, I wish I understood Japanese. That looks like such an in-depth feature! The extra section about Yuka Sato is equally tantalizing and lovely. When you see her next to the guys of "Team Sato," you see how tiny she is. Yet she looks so quietly confident, as though she knows that she's got everything covered. I hope her team does well at Worlds.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •