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Thread: LP Scores of Men contending at Worlds 2012

  1. #1
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    LP Scores of Men contending at Worlds 2012

    Chan.............................84.84+87.64, 72.30+85.14, 87.59+87.08, 103.21+97.60,* 95.83+90.16**

    Takahashi.......................69.37+83.84, 80.04+90.28, 87.05+85.58, 74.65+86.90,* 76.88+84.86**

    Fernandez......................85.48+81.14, 81.77+81.36, 84.89+81.40, 65.37+76.78**

    Gachinski....................... 69.04+72.86, 72.50+75.20, 81.56+85.50,* 82.61+78.86**

    Hanyu............................72.80+74.36, 82.50+78.38, 87.21+79.28, 88.59+79.00*

    Abbott...........................69.67+80.50, 64.10+83.44, 74.80+83.36, 88.29+95.06,* 61.63+84.18CC

    Kozuka..........................68.54+74.86, 76.67+78.58, 71.34+73.38*

    Amodio..........................56.86+68.28, 60.48+70.44, 54.33+76.86,* 74.14+81.56**

    Brezina..........................64.50+73.42, 67.72+76.56, 70.92+76.42, 71.34+73.38, 74.15+80.02**

    Song.............................86.45+67.58, 79.93+67.64, 59.37+62.80**

    Verner............................63.89+71.78, 67.06+78.16**

    Rippon...........................74.96+71.12, 70.05+74.88, 76.65+82.28,* 73.41+74.22**

    Joubert..........................70.25+79.34,* 61.07+78.84,** 73.83+74.66CC


    * Nationals
    ** Euro or 4CC

    Names are listed by SB Total scores of ISU events.


    I have not done the SP scores because they are relatively stable so LPs are likely more important in the determination of the final ranking at Worlds.


    My observations:

    Euro PCS seem out of range high

    Momentum - Chan, Hanyu, Gachinski, and Amodio though the latter two are coloured by Nationals and Euro inflations. Brezina has momentum in his TES.

    PCS order:

    Chan, Takahashi, Abbott, Fernandez, Hanyu, Kozuka, Gachinski, Brezina, Verner, Amodio, Rippon, and Song.

    Joubert had too few competitions including the Nationals and Euro, both suspects of inflation. I chose to put Kozuka ahead of Gachinski because of the NAT and Euro also.

    TES fluctuate much for most and are hard to order, I would group them into

    1) Chan, Fernandez, Hanyu

    2) Gachinski, Song, Takahashi,

    3) Kozuka, Rippon, Abbott, Joubert, Brezina,

    4) Verner, Amodio.


    Fastest risers this season: Fernandez and Hanyu. Abbott is regaining his form after a bad season. Maybe I should add Song too though he has had very few competitions to go by.

    Verner has fallen off his PCS while Brezina has fallen off his TES such that his PCS is now higher than his TES. Kozuka is off in both TES and PCS compared to last season. I should say Verner has fallen off both scores too but he used to have PCS high enough to keep him in contention. He too had too few competitions to go by but that does not bode well at Worlds in an unfortunate season for him.
    Last edited by SkateFiguring; 03-27-2012 at 05:44 PM.

  2. #2
    Custom Title spikydurian's Avatar
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    Thanks SF. Interesting compilation.

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    Thanks, SF, as always!

    Quote Originally Posted by SkateFiguring View Post
    TES fluctuate much for most and are hard to order, I would group them into

    1) Chan, Fernandez, Hanyu

    2) Gachinski, Song, Takahashi,

    3) Kozuka, Abbott, Joubert, Brezina,

    4) Verner, Amodio.
    This is a refreshing way to observe these skaters.

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    I try to under-weigh exceptionally low scores for exceptional situations: Chan being sick at TEB, Abbott experimenting with SP quad in CC, Song having a near death experience at 4CC, and Fernandez at Euro? WTH?

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    Quote Originally Posted by SkateFiguring View Post
    I try to under-weigh exceptionally low scores for exceptional situations: Chan being sick at TEB, Abbott experimenting with SP quad in CC, Song having a near death experience at 4CC, and Fernandez at Euro? WTH?
    Yes and Verner was also recovering from injury at NHK which is likely why his scores, both TES and PCS, were so low (for him) there. Remember he had to withdraw from his second GP due to this injury, and from Nebelhorn before that event so I'm not sure it's fair to say his PCS is really dropped off, he just had a bad competition. At Euros his TES and PCS were much better in both programs and more like his usual. I don't think PCS at Euros were that inflated to be honest, maybe a little for Brezina and Amodio but otherwise not really, people may not think skaters like Joubert and Contesti deserve such high PCS but they regularly get marks in that range anyways, same for Verner, and Amodio was European Champ last season so it's not surprising he'd get a PCS boost. Brezina's been erratic this season but his TES are not too bad, he's just not that consistent. I wouldn't say he's on a definite upswing or downswing, just unpredictable.

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    I don't judge or decide on what someone "deserves". I look at Euro PCS compared to each skater's normal range this season. Most received significant boost, except for Fernandez with his meltdown.

    I also don't account for whatever has affected someone's whole season, just making observations. Verner, Kozuka, Amodio, and Brezina can all bounce back next season, like Abbott did this season. Heck, any one of them could bounce back at Worlds. The data can, however, aid in guessing the most probable outcomes.

    Editing to add Oda for next season come back.
    Last edited by SkateFiguring; 03-26-2012 at 12:08 AM.

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    interesting way at looking at things but did you just choose to forget about Rippon and Brezina? They have a good chance at a top 10 finish

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    Brezina is included and discussed. Rippon is not a contender. He SB (from 4CC) is 17th this season, behind a few Juniors. Taking away non competing Juniors, Oda, and Plushenko, he SB will place him at 13th.

    eta. I will add Rippon for comparison. I've included those considered contenders by posted predictions but Rippon ranked 9th in the GP series, higher than most Europeans included here, by reputation I suppose, and Euro boosts.
    Last edited by SkateFiguring; 03-26-2012 at 12:47 AM.

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    I added Rippon to the list. He's actually very consistent in his results.

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