Originally Posted by

**Mathman**
^Let’s put some numbers up.

Suppose you can rotate your quad but have only a 10% chance of landing it. But you have a 90% chance chance of landing your Lutz. Let’s say you typically get +1 GOE when you land your quad and +1 GOE when you land your Lutz. Ten per cent of the time on your Lutz you get an edge call, a UR, or some other negative feature so that you average say, 4.00 on the rare occasions where your Lutz is unsuccessful.

Expected (average) value of quad attempt, taking into account both successes and failures: .10x11.30 + .90x6.30 = **7.80**

Expected value of triple Lutz attempt, averaged over all attempts: .90x6.70 + .10x 4.00 = **6.43**.

The current rules say it is better to attempt the quad (if you can get the rotations) even if your success rate in holding the landing is only 10%.

Yes, you might get tired, etc. Still, something seems out of balance here.

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