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Thread: Who will challenge Carolina Kostner in London, Canada?

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    Who will challenge Carolina Kostner in London, Canada?

    Carolina Kostner, reigning WC, looks like the favorite to win again next year. Assuming she hits 3T3T, 3 loop in the SP, same as she did in the LP here without the double flip mistake, who will be the challengers? What will they need to challenge her?

    Miki Ando? If she's back, she will need a triple triple in the short program. Needs a flawless 6 triples in the LP. The good news is she will have Morozov choreography, so she will automatically get huge PCS. The bad news is even with Morozov's backing, her PCS will still trail Caro's 1-2 points in the SP, and 2-3 points in the LP. She will need an extra triple to make up for it. I'm afraid it will be close without the flip. With a 7-triples LP, she might be able to do it.

    Mao Asada? Without the 3A, she will need a triple triple in the SP to beat Carolina. Her PCS will not be enough. Without either 3A or 3x3, she will trail by 2-3 points in the SP. At her best, she can crack 130 in the LP. She can potentially beat Caro with a clean SP and a perfect skate of her life LP. Again, with her current status, I find this scenario even less likely than Miki's.

    Akiko Suzuki? Her PCS will not do. No chance even when she skate without any error in both phases of the competition.

    Kanako? Proved she's a good SP skater. Can do 3F-3T, 3Loop to put herself in contention after the SP. Will fall apart in the LP and become a non-factor.

    Kiira Korpi? Her SP will score very high. She regularly hit 30+ PCS in the SP if she's clean. Will be in contention after the SP. Will not be a factor in the LP.

    Ashley Wagner? Will need to hit 3F-3T, 3Loop perfectly to be in contention. Will need to be perfect in the LP to make top 6 if the previous girls are perfect. Also PCS are too low to be a factor.

    Adelina? Her PCS will not do. She can hit 3flutz-3loop, 3flip in the SP. Depends on the caller, she might come close to Caro after the SP. Since hitting the senior level, she's never had a LP worthy of 120+. Will be tough. Even when she execute her LP perfectly, it will not be enough. Mirai's skate of her life at the Olympics was only 128? I think that will be Adelina's ceiling for the LP.

    Liza T? Assuming Adelina is perfect and couldn't do it, she will not be able to do it either. Her PCS are way lower to be in contention. If the previous few hit it, she will not make the final group, let alone a chance at a medal.

    Anyone else I miss?

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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Carolina Kostner, reigning WC, looks like the favorite to win again next year. Assuming she hits 3T3T, 3 loop in the SP, same as she did in the LP here without the double flip mistake, who will be the challengers? What will they need to challenge her?

    Miki Ando? If she's back, she will need a triple triple in the short program. Needs a flawless 6 triples in the LP. The good news is she will have Morozov choreography, so she will automatically get huge PCS. The bad news is even with Morozov's backing, her PCS will still trail Caro's 1-2 points in the SP, and 2-3 points in the LP. She will need an extra triple to make up for it. I'm afraid it will be close without the flip. With a 7-triples LP, she might be able to do it.

    Mao Asada? Without the 3A, she will need a triple triple in the SP to beat Carolina. Her PCS will not be enough. Without either 3A or 3x3, she will trail by 2-3 points in the SP. At her best, she can crack 130 in the LP. She can potentially beat Caro with a clean SP and a perfect skate of her life LP. Again, with her current status, I find this scenario even less likely than Miki's.

    Akiko Suzuki? Her PCS will not do. No chance even when she skate without any error in both phases of the competition.

    Kanako? Proved she's a good SP skater. Can do 3F-3T, 3Loop to put herself in contention after the SP. Will fall apart in the LP and become a non-factor.

    Kiira Korpi? Her SP will score very high. She regularly hit 30+ PCS in the SP if she's clean. Will be in contention after the SP. Will not be a factor in the LP.

    Ashley Wagner? Will need to hit 3F-3T, 3Loop perfectly to be in contention. Will need to be perfect in the LP to make top 6 if the previous girls are perfect. Also PCS are too low to be a factor.

    Adelina? Her PCS will not do. She can hit 3flutz-3loop, 3flip in the SP. Depends on the caller, she might come close to Caro after the SP. Since hitting the senior level, she's never had a LP worthy of 120+. Will be tough. Even when she execute her LP perfectly, it will not be enough. Mirai's skate of her life at the Olympics was only 128? I think that will be Adelina's ceiling for the LP.

    Liza T? Assuming Adelina is perfect and couldn't do it, she will not be able to do it either. Her PCS are way lower to be in contention. If the previous few hit it, she will not make the final group, let alone a chance at a medal.

    Anyone else I miss?
    Miki Ando? ROTFL

    Mao Asada? Doubt it.

    Akiko Suzuki? Could threaten if Kostner makes mistakes only.

    Kanako Murakami? Depends if she improves alot or not.

    Kiira Korpi? ROTTTFFFFFLLLL

    Ashley Wagner? If she matches her improvement rate of the last year possibly.

    Adelina Sotnikova? Possible. I think the Russians will start the politiking hard in preperation for Sochi, and their young skaters have oodles of improvement left, especialy this one having made it past puberty now.

    Elizaveta? Possible as well. She already has the jumps and the PCS should shoot well up with the combination of poliking and maturing.

    Alena Leonova? Same as Suzuki, only if Kostner makes mistakes.

    Yu Na Kim? If she returns in 80% of her 2010 form she would blow everyone to pieces, but I dont think she will return at all.


    Kostner will defend her World title next year, but will have a challenge to hang on to win in 2014. The silver and bronze at the 2013 Worlds will go to Wagner and a Russian I predict.

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    Hold your horses.....the World Championships just ended today and you're predicting next year's results? A little too quick to jump to any conclusions, I would say :P

    Just a comment on Ando - she has beaten Kostner in the past w/o a triple triple. I think she can do it again. She's a strong LP skater, and she should have no problem beating a clean Kostner. She has been skating in shows this whole season, and I think she's aiming to improve artistic components. She's a strong skater, and I would NEVER count her out.

    I don't think Kostner is invincible, heck, I don't think she's that hard to beat.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Becki View Post
    Hold your horses.....the World Championships just ended today and you're predicting next year's results? A little too quick to jump to any conclusions, I would say :P

    Just a comment on Ando - she has beaten Kostner in the past w/o a triple triple. I think she can do it again. She's a strong LP skater, and she should have no problem beating a clean Kostner. She has been skating in shows this whole season, and I think she's aiming to improve artistic components. She's a strong skater, and I would NEVER count her out.

    I don't think Kostner is invincible, heck, I don't think she's that hard to beat.
    No doubt she can do it again, but this time, she's going up against a reigning WC. Their last match up, the LP at W 2011, Kostner with limited jumps, shaky throughout the program, beat her on PCS.
    http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc..._FS_Scores.pdf

    Kostner with perfect 6 triples will smoke her in PCS.

    Like I said, if Kostner is clean in the SP, clean in the LP, who can beat her. You don't think she's that hard to beat, give an example.

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    It's hard to tell, but I hope Adelina, Kanako Gracie and Liza improve a lot over the summer and have a very strong season, is there any chance that Miki Ando will return at all??

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    I don't see why you would assume Murakami will collapse in the FP. She just finished fifth at her first Worlds with a total score just over one point less than Wagner (about fifteen points off Kostner). She should get respect from the judges for that finish and should be quite invigorated for next season. I realize there are some jump issues (there were errors in her FS and the mule kick is obvious) but they don't seem to be holding her back very much.

    I guess I also see a lot more in Tut than you do. I expect her to be a big factor next year.

    Ashley - why not?

    Mao - one continues to hope. That's all I can say about her.

    Miki - never underestimate the 2011 and 2007 World Champion and 2009 bronze medalist! If she is really shooting for Sochi, she'll come back in shape and competitive. I so wish it would be with a different choreographer, though!

    I tend to agree with you about Akiko only because of her age but would love to be proven wrong.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spun Silver View Post
    I don't see why you would assume Murakami will collapse in the FP. She just finished fifth at her first Worlds with a total score just over one point less than Wagner (about fifteen points off Kostner). She should get respect from the judges for that finish and should be quite invigorated for next season. I realize there are some jump issues (there were errors in her FS and the mule kick is obvious) but they don't seem to be holding her back very much.
    She finished eighth in her first worlds, seventh in the free program.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spun Silver View Post
    I don't see why you would assume Murakami will collapse in the FP. She just finished fifth at her first Worlds with a total score just over one point less than Wagner

    Her second Worlds. She placed 8th in Moscow last year.

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    Carolina's not that hard to beat. I think she won this year in part because other world champion-worthy skaters had already gotten their medal and were training or resting with other goals (i.e., Olympic Sochi) in mind.

    The question that would be more relevant is, will Carolina manage to improve in any significant way leading up to Sochi? One major problem with Carolina is that she's got messy edges. She's fast but it's uncontrolled speed and this would have to be addressed if she's going to improve.

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    Quote Originally Posted by johnny 80 View Post
    Her second Worlds. She placed 8th in Moscow last year.
    Whoopsy. I totally forgot. Well, just goes to show how much she can improve in a year!

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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    No doubt she can do it again, but this time, she's going up against a reigning WC. Their last match up, the LP at W 2011, Kostner with limited jumps, shaky throughout the program, beat her on PCS.
    http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc..._FS_Scores.pdf

    Kostner with perfect 6 triples will smoke her in PCS.

    Like I said, if Kostner is clean in the SP, clean in the LP, who can beat her. You don't think she's that hard to beat, give an example.
    Since when has Carolina gone totally clean in a World Championship? She's done it in B-competitions, but rarely in major ones, and IIRC never in big competitions like Worlds. Her potential score is high if she skates clean, but even in her best performance she doubled a jump in both the SP and LP. She's still very much vulnerable.

    She'll be skating in Canada, not Europe, and Sochi is just around the corner so the Russian federation is hard at work. Sotnikova and Tuktamisheva can easily get a big PCS boost in their senior debut. Look at Yuna and Mao's PCS in their first Worlds. Yuna broke the record in the short, and had she not fallen on both her triple Lutz and her 3S+2T combo voided, she could have won the title. And this without a powerful federation to back her up. Sotnikova and Tuktamisheva will have far better political support in their first senior Worlds.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Krislite View Post
    Since when has Carolina gone totally clean in a World Championship? She's done it in B-competitions, but rarely in major ones, and IIRC never in big competitions like Worlds. Her potential score is high if she skates clean, but even in her best performance she doubled a jump in both the SP and LP. She's still very much vulnerable.

    She'll be skating in Canada, not Europe, and Sochi is just around the corner so the Russian federation is hard at work. Sotnikova and Tuktamisheva can easily get a big PCS boost in their senior debut. Look at Yuna and Mao's PCS in their first Worlds. Yuna broke the record in the short, and had she not fallen on both her triple Lutz and her 3S+2T combo voided, she could have won the title. And this without a powerful federation to back her up. Sotnikova and Tuktamisheva will have far better political support in their first senior Worlds.
    That's true. Carolina will be messy. For the sake of argument, let's pretend she's clean. Who can beat her?

    Regarding yuna and Mao debut a while back, that year, mostly fresh blood, no michelle, no Irina, no shizuka, no big names skating at world. They didn's reserve Pcs for anyone. Next year, you have Carolina skating, they will hold her up no matter what a bunch of newbies do.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Miki Ando? ROTFL


    Yu Na Kim? If she returns in 80% of her 2010 form she would blow everyone to pieces, but I dont think she will return at all.
    You say this, but then, what happened last year? Oh wait, I remember, Yuna came with her 3lz-3t and Miki did no 3-3s and didn't even pull off her intended 2a-3t and won. Be realistic, now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    You say this, but then, what happened last year? Oh wait, I remember, Yuna came with her 3lz-3t and Miki did no 3-3s and didn't even pull off her intended 2a-3t and won. Be realistic, now.
    I don't think Yuna could make a comeback at this point even if she wanted to. She hasn't seriously trained for over a year now and I don't think she could regain the physique that she had at Olympics, particularly as she has to remain vigilant about her hernia. Even if she did, under the new CoP, she wouldn't be as competitive. She would need a loop, and her skating skills and spins would need to be upgraded.

    It will be interesting to compare Yuna to Carolina at ATS this year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    You say this, but then, what happened last year? Oh wait, I remember, Yuna came with her 3lz-3t and Miki did no 3-3s and didn't even pull off her intended 2a-3t and won. Be realistic, now.
    "If she returns in 80% of her 2010 form "

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