Who will challenge Carolina Kostner in London, Canada?

[mhu714]

I'm rooting for anyone other than Kostner at Sochi, though Ladies skating is so watered down these days and she's so over marked she might actually do it. I guess Yu Na got tired of being in the world's smallest fishbowl but I hope she gets motivatred and decides to show up--if so she'll blow away the field. All the other so called contenders are highly flawed, or inexperienced. Little Tuktamisheva is an amazing jumper but needs more polish. OTOH, how much more polished was Lipinski in '98? Certainly no one from Europe has a chance, Mao (who I love) is not the same and likely never will be, Ando is another severely over rated skater and might not show up, Akiko doesn't get much PCS respect, the other Russians (especially Leonova) leave me cold. The Americans? I guess Ashley could continue to improve but until she has the guts to do a good 3-3 she wont get the points. Maybe Zawadski will make a quantum leap or Gold will emerge, but I certainly wouldn't bet on any of them. Who else is left? I guess Kostner, the judges favorite, even doing only jumps 13 yr olds do in their sleep (yeah but she does them beautifully, with great speed right?) can get the gold. What a fiasco.

[mhu714]

Just realized I'm a doofus who missed that the thread was not who'll win at Sochi but at next year's Worlds. I stand by my commentary though.

[Becki]

The ladies' field is so underwhelming right now, I don't care who wins as long as she skates the best free program of her life or something, preferably with a triple-triple.

[guanchi]

If Adelina doesn't get edge calls on her lutz, and Eliza uses all of the rink, then they'll stand a much better chance. If they both hit clean 6-7 triple programs with 3-3's, and Caro does the same layout as 2012 and wins, then it'll smell really fishy. They will hit a reputation and PCS wall in London, but maybe not so much in Sochi.

[sky_fly20]

If Adelina doesn't get edge calls on her lutz, and Eliza uses all of the rink, then they'll stand a much better chance. If they both hit clean 6-7 triple programs with 3-3's, and Caro does the same layout as 2012 and wins, then it'll smell really fishy. They will hit a reputation and PCS wall in London, but maybe not so much in Sochi.

a clean Tuk Tuk did beat Kostner at TEB

[guanchi]

yeah, but looking at Kostner's skate again, she only did 4 triples with a major mistake on the flip, and no 3-3's. A 5 triple Kostner who is world champ looks very tough to beat. If she gets her lutz and 3-3 back, then they may need triple axels just to keep up, at least up until Sochi, where it probably won't be necessary.

[skateluvr]

Haven't read whole thread, and realize others have the numbers in their head. I think Caro will challenge herself. She will go in with burden of WC on her shoulders to repeat. I think Mao had a rough year, but I believe she can challenge. Miko Ando if she returns can challenge. Ashley Wagner can challenge, and Akiko Suzuki. I am mentioning those who skated well, are former WC's at this years WC's MAo lost her mother. Maybe she has lost her love for competition. We saw this happen to Jenny Kirk, Angela Nikodinov and others. Mao, I believe in her if she wants to continue.

New skaters coming up include Kanako Murakami next year will be a major podium threat wherever she goes. I don't love her but the judges do. Yuna won't be back, and Joannie either, but she could definitely challenge Carolina athletically and artistically had she come back this season. From the United States, Ashley Wagner can challenge and she was underscored in the sp and LP. They held her down. They wanted a podium of Caro and Mao, MAo theyn did not get, but were ready to reward Akiko if she skated well enough. They did. Leonova as the journeywoman had the technical skates she needed. I still would rather see Ashley anyday as she is a lovely skater with a much better program. I hated Leonova's wild footwork, arm flailing. Just horrible from choreo to costume/hair/m,akeup in her Requiem LP. Her Sp grew on me, but she can challenge a Caro wwho gwets nervous and falls quite easily.

Chan may be next years likely 3 time gold medalist, but Caro is not nearly such a lock. This was her year. SHe delivered, and even with less triples, what shje does is so superior to leonova blade to ice, she deserved her gold.

Oi, how could I forget the other Russian. Liza is going to rocket like this year. Adelina, I don't know, she is still growing. Koro is lovely, but I think two years are needed to get her into her growing body. She may be stunning or fizzle out. Liza T is amazing in many ways. If healthy, with good programs she could win gold next year on the way to Sochi in Tara Lipinski type fashion. SHe is a real competitor. Alena will be around til Sochi and will be fighting off whatever Russian babies have good luck. Ksenia is so done.

[jiggs]

I can't believe we are already discussing this. Carolina hasn't even announced if she will continue or not. She said that the chance for her to continue is 50:50. I believe she will retire. She has had such a long career, she deserves some rest. Personally, I would love for her to continue because I would love to see two more seasons of genius, creative programs. Even with all the complaints about the ladies' field being so weak this year, for me Carolina really was a breath of fresh air with her beautiful programs and amazing skating. The 3-3 wonderbabies won't do it for me next year because they just miss the maturity and natural elegance Carolina brought to the ice. There is just more to figure skating than a 3lz and 3-3.

I would like to congratulate Carolina on her World title - she deserves it so much and has been working so hard for this. Who would have thought that after three total meltdowns (Turin 2006, LA 2009 and Vancouver 2010) she would come back skating like this and winning almost everything this season. What a fighter.

If she continues, I think it is far too early to make predictions. It is also impossible to tell how Adelina, Liza and Julia will do with the pressure on their shoulders and growth spurts ahead. No one is a lock for anything.

[FlattFan]

Why would Yuna need the loop just to be "competitive", when no Flip got Ando a World title and no Lutz got Kostner a World title? Upgrade her skating skills and get back the loop? Who would she be competing against next year? A time-traveling Midori Ito?

Carolina won the World title with a score of 189 points. Even Yuna's botched programs last year would have handily beat that (she got 194 total). She would have had to had done worse than last year to get below 189. What did she miss last year? She missed her 3x3 in the short, a 3Salchow combo, a 3Flip, and she omitted her 2A+3T combo. So I just can't comprehend this logic that she needs to skate clean, needs a 3Loop and an upgraded skating skills just to be "competitive" with Kostner of all people.

Yuna's botched SP wasn't as bad as Kostner's botched SP. Her doubled loop got an automatic -3 GOE. Yuna didn't really miss anything terrible in the SP.
In the long program, Kostner doubled her flip. You can't comprehend what? If Kostner was perfect in the SP and LP, it will take Yuna at the Olympics to beat her. There's no other time in Yuna career that will beat a clean Kostner.

[FlattFan]

a clean Tuk Tuk did beat Kostner at TEB

Barely beat a really flawed Kostner.

[Robeye]

Yuna's botched SP wasn't as bad as Kostner's botched SP. Her doubled loop got an automatic -3 GOE. Yuna didn't really miss anything terrible in the SP.
In the long program, Kostner doubled her flip. You can't comprehend what? If Kostner was perfect in the SP and LP, it will take Yuna at the Olympics to beat her. There's no other time in Yuna career that will beat a clean Kostner.

You're mixing walnuts and lima beans here.

Comparing like to like, Carolina at this Worlds was as "perfect" as she has ever managed to be. This result of almost 190 is her best in international competition. Ever. Not including Challenge Cups and such. I thought Carolina was excellent relative to the field and deserved gold, but the difference between her best outing and Yuna's practical best, the Olympics, is close to 40 points. At this Worlds, a 40 point gap is the difference between Carolina and Valentina Marchei. Now, I'm obviously making the last point for effect. No, I don't really think the gap between Yuna and Carolina is quite that large, but the numbers are the numbers, and they say it's pretty large.

"There's no other time in Yuna career that will beat a clean Kostner." You serious? Or have you not bothered to check even the most basic facts before posting? I'll post the data for you:

http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/o100lto.htm

I'll even summarize what it says:

-Out of the top 10 COP points totals of all time, Yuna has 3 (and the very top three, around 208, 210 and 229, rounded up), or 30% of them. Carolina has 0.

-Out of the top 20, Yuna has 6, the lowest being almost 195. Again, 30% of the total. Carolina has 0.

-Out of the top 30, Yuna has 8, the lowest being around 192. This is 26% of the total. Carolina has 0.

-There are 34 scores over 190 (all the scores that beat Carolina's 2012 Worlds score, which is #35 and just misses). Yuna owns 9 of them, the lowest being around 191. That's 26% of the total. The earliest of these 190+ results for Yuna was in 2007 at Cup of Russia, which was early in her career. She scored around 197 there (rounded down). The latest was Worlds 2011, her most recent competition, where (as mentioned) she scored almost 195.

And I'll throw in a few more observations:

-Yuna has competed 19 times internationally since she began her senior career in the 2006-7 season. Which means that in just about half of all the performances over her entire career, her score was higher than Carolina's WC 2012.

-And more of Yuna's "lower" scores were in the first half of her career. In the second half of her career (from the 2008-9 season to Worlds 2011), Yuna's scores in 7 out of 11 events (64%) were higher than Carolina's WC 2012 career best, often much, much higher.

-In some ways the most mind-boggling thing of all: except for her very first senior competition in 2006, where Yuna scored around 168 (but still won bronze), she has scored over 180 every time, which means she was basically competitive with Carolina's redemptive, feel-good, career-crowning performance every single time she stepped onto the ice, through highs and lows, good and bad (for her), injuries, moods, motivational issues, what have you.

*Sigh*. I really do try to maintain an even keel when posting, but I confess to being irritated in this thread. With Yuna out of competition, people seem to feel license to conveniently forget/ignore the facts, and just how strong a skater Yuna was (and, I hope, still is).

[Redstone]

Barely beat a really flawed Kostner.

]

And when is Kostner not flawed? And adding that the next season Liza's components will mostly for sure grow (just because she'll fully switch to seniors), Tuk looks like a very serious challenger for Karo. I'd even go there and say that if the puberty won't be killing her she'll be a more serious competitor than Yuna, just because she's a super motivated athlete, a qulity that Yuna seems to miss now.

[hurrah]

I don't understand why the discussion is about Yuna when this is a discussion about who could beat Carolina next year?? Whoever thinks Yuna could come back as strong as she was at Vancouver, or even 80%, is being unrealistic. Yuna is now 22-years-old, and she has been out of serious training for a year now, and has competed only once in the last two years. Had she continued training after Worlds 2011, there would have been the possibility, but not any more. Even if she did resume training now, after such a long layoff period, getting back into shape would entail a larger risk of injury than before, and she was already training with a hernia as it was. And even if everything went smoothly, it would take a year or more likely 2 years to re-learn everything; by then she would be 24-years-old, which is quite a mature age for a figure skater and for that alone, she would be at a disadvantage particularly for someone with Yuna's body type that is prone to injury.

Has any figure skater in history ever managed to make a comeback after a prolonged break? Katerina Witt? No. Did Pluschenko manage to get back to his top form and beyond at Vancouver? No.

[l'etoile]

]

And when is Kostner not flawed? And adding that the next season Liza's components will mostly for sure grow (just because she'll fully switch to seniors), Tuk looks like a very serious challenger for Karo. I'd even go there and say that if the puberty won't be killing her she'll be a more serious competitor than Yuna, just because she's a super motivated athlete, a qulity that Yuna seems to miss now.

Yuna may lack that fire/motivation NOW but you can't say her desire, quality of a competitive fighter, she had going into Vancouver was not as serious as any other skaters. That's what got Yuna the Olympic champion title in that incredible form and the main reason she was so burned up right after the olympics that she couldn't even present her best form yet again at the last two Worlds.

So much talking and heated discussion about Yuna. She needs to let the FS fans rest in peace by declaring her decision already. Seriously, Kim doesn't even have anything else to gain by coming back. The girl has won it all, broke world records more than enough, which are unlikely to be broken in recent years, and left so many precious performances to be remembered for a long time.

[johnny 80]

Karo was way way better than Tuk /when she started the Sr..

You saw GPF? Tuk's ice coverage so small. even on TV, their difference is perceievable.

When they warm up, She was too small, her presence nowhere.




And Tuk has no choreographer like Lori.

Though Mishin used to hire Tom Dickson, It didn't work .

For Russian coaches usually cut or change choreography to their taste,,



She is a just little jumping bean , now.

and highly overrated for Sochi.