Carolina Kostner, reigning WC, looks like the favorite to win again next year. Assuming she hits 3T3T, 3 loop in the SP, same as she did in the LP here without the double flip mistake, who will be the challengers? What will they need to challenge her?
Miki Ando? If she's back, she will need a triple triple in the short program. Needs a flawless 6 triples in the LP. The good news is she will have Morozov choreography, so she will automatically get huge PCS. The bad news is even with Morozov's backing, her PCS will still trail Caro's 1-2 points in the SP, and 2-3 points in the LP. She will need an extra triple to make up for it. I'm afraid it will be close without the flip. With a 7-triples LP, she might be able to do it.
Mao Asada? Without the 3A, she will need a triple triple in the SP to beat Carolina. Her PCS will not be enough. Without either 3A or 3x3, she will trail by 2-3 points in the SP. At her best, she can crack 130 in the LP. She can potentially beat Caro with a clean SP and a perfect skate of her life LP. Again, with her current status, I find this scenario even less likely than Miki's.
Akiko Suzuki? Her PCS will not do. No chance even when she skate without any error in both phases of the competition.
Kanako? Proved she's a good SP skater. Can do 3F-3T, 3Loop to put herself in contention after the SP. Will fall apart in the LP and become a non-factor.
Kiira Korpi? Her SP will score very high. She regularly hit 30+ PCS in the SP if she's clean. Will be in contention after the SP. Will not be a factor in the LP.
Ashley Wagner? Will need to hit 3F-3T, 3Loop perfectly to be in contention. Will need to be perfect in the LP to make top 6 if the previous girls are perfect. Also PCS are too low to be a factor.
Adelina? Her PCS will not do. She can hit 3flutz-3loop, 3flip in the SP. Depends on the caller, she might come close to Caro after the SP. Since hitting the senior level, she's never had a LP worthy of 120+. Will be tough. Even when she execute her LP perfectly, it will not be enough. Mirai's skate of her life at the Olympics was only 128? I think that will be Adelina's ceiling for the LP.
Liza T? Assuming Adelina is perfect and couldn't do it, she will not be able to do it either. Her PCS are way lower to be in contention. If the previous few hit it, she will not make the final group, let alone a chance at a medal.
Anyone else I miss?
Miki Ando? If she's back, she will need a triple triple in the short program. Needs a flawless 6 triples in the LP. The good news is she will have Morozov choreography, so she will automatically get huge PCS. The bad news is even with Morozov's backing, her PCS will still trail Caro's 1-2 points in the SP, and 2-3 points in the LP. She will need an extra triple to make up for it. I'm afraid it will be close without the flip. With a 7-triples LP, she might be able to do it.
Mao Asada? Without the 3A, she will need a triple triple in the SP to beat Carolina. Her PCS will not be enough. Without either 3A or 3x3, she will trail by 2-3 points in the SP. At her best, she can crack 130 in the LP. She can potentially beat Caro with a clean SP and a perfect skate of her life LP. Again, with her current status, I find this scenario even less likely than Miki's.
Akiko Suzuki? Her PCS will not do. No chance even when she skate without any error in both phases of the competition.
Kanako? Proved she's a good SP skater. Can do 3F-3T, 3Loop to put herself in contention after the SP. Will fall apart in the LP and become a non-factor.
Kiira Korpi? Her SP will score very high. She regularly hit 30+ PCS in the SP if she's clean. Will be in contention after the SP. Will not be a factor in the LP.
Ashley Wagner? Will need to hit 3F-3T, 3Loop perfectly to be in contention. Will need to be perfect in the LP to make top 6 if the previous girls are perfect. Also PCS are too low to be a factor.
Adelina? Her PCS will not do. She can hit 3flutz-3loop, 3flip in the SP. Depends on the caller, she might come close to Caro after the SP. Since hitting the senior level, she's never had a LP worthy of 120+. Will be tough. Even when she execute her LP perfectly, it will not be enough. Mirai's skate of her life at the Olympics was only 128? I think that will be Adelina's ceiling for the LP.
Liza T? Assuming Adelina is perfect and couldn't do it, she will not be able to do it either. Her PCS are way lower to be in contention. If the previous few hit it, she will not make the final group, let alone a chance at a medal.
Anyone else I miss?