Who will challenge Carolina Kostner in London, Canada?

hurrah said:

I don't understand why the discussion is about Yuna when this is a discussion about who could beat Carolina next year?? Whoever thinks Yuna could come back as strong as she was at Vancouver, or even 80%, is being unrealistic. Yuna is now 22-years-old, and she has been out of serious training for a year now, and has competed only once in the last two years. Had she continued training after Worlds 2011, there would have been the possibility, but not any more. Even if she did resume training now, after such a long layoff period, getting back into shape would entail a larger risk of injury than before, and she was already training with a hernia as it was. And even if everything went smoothly, it would take a year or more likely 2 years to re-learn everything; by then she would be 24-years-old, which is quite a mature age for a figure skater and for that alone, she would be at a disadvantage particularly for someone with Yuna's body type that is prone to injury.

Has any figure skater in history ever managed to make a comeback after a prolonged break? Katerina Witt? No. Did Pluschenko manage to get back to his top form and beyond at Vancouver? No.

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You've made your point million times about Yuna not being able to come back strong because of her "physique", threatening possible injuries for her. I think people get that

When it comes to athletes' status, condition, competitive ability, it all comes down to hypothetical questions, isn't it? Who would've thought Alyssa would bounce back and become a two time US champion and GPF champion? We have Ashely who won her first national title and then went on to claim 4cc title over Mao this year. What about Carolina? Everyone seemed to be giving up on her after 2009 worlds and Vancouver Olympics, but she became the world champion just last month with stunning performances. Both Alyssa and Carolina were thinking of quitting quite amount of time after their meltdowns, I'd say it could hardly be conveyed as that they were training seriously during those times.

I think you're overlooking something though. Age is an important factor for a skater but athletes can also defy the limit. See now who's earned her first world medal at the age of 27 in Nice? And who's won the first title at the age of 26? People can speculate and talk about what they want to happen all the time. Sports itself, however, doesn't care for all that. Excitement, unexpectedness, incredible achievements with emotions, defying one's limitations or expectations, those are what sports are all about.

Your obsession for age, physique especially about Yuna is reasonable but not persuasive enough.

l'etoile said:

Yuna may lack that fire/motivation NOW but you can't say her desire, quality of a competitive fighter, she had going into Vancouver was not as serious as any other skaters. <...>
So much talking and heated discussion about Yuna. She needs to let the FS fans rest in peace by declaring her decision already.

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She said she doesn't want to compete anymore. And also Yuna said that she was pushed to go to Worlds in Moscow by her Federation and her Mom. So yeah, I think it's pretty clear that she lacks motivation but she's without denying is a great skater. She was motivated to win the Olympics gold medal - she reached her goal and that's it.

johnny 80 said:

Karo was way way better than Tuk /when she started the Sr..

You saw GPF? Tuk's ice coverage too small. even on TV, their difference is perceievable.

When they warm up, She was too small, her presence nowhere.

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Karo was older and more mature when she started GP, Liza was just 14, Carolina was 17. Liza won two events and Caro's best result was silver (an amazing result for a first-timer).
The only thing that she's indeed has a problem (because she totally doesn't have a problem with presence, IMO) is an ice coverage - well. she said she knows that and their working on it. This year was just she and her team trying the water of seniors.

hurrah said:

I don't understand why the discussion is about Yuna when this is a discussion about who could beat Carolina next year?? Whoever thinks Yuna could come back as strong as she was at Vancouver, or even 80%, is being unrealistic. Yuna is now 22-years-old, and she has been out of serious training for a year now, and has competed only once in the last two years. Had she continued training after Worlds 2011, there would have been the possibility, but not any more. Even if she did resume training now, after such a long layoff period, getting back into shape would entail a larger risk of injury than before, and she was already training with a hernia as it was. And even if everything went smoothly, it would take a year or more likely 2 years to re-learn everything; by then she would be 24-years-old, which is quite a mature age for a figure skater and for that alone, she would be at a disadvantage particularly for someone with Yuna's body type that is prone to injury.

Has any figure skater in history ever managed to make a comeback after a prolonged break? Katerina Witt? No. Did Pluschenko manage to get back to his top form and beyond at Vancouver? No.

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The discussion became "about" Yuna because people started making sweeping statements about her, on issues for which they have no real information, or on which they are factually misinformed, in tones that imply authoritative, holy writ. Sound familiar? It should, because, ironically, you're the one that started it all. Vigorously exercising your imagination and then repeating your ungrounded opinions like a mantra doesn't make them fact. (And Yuna is 21).

Skating is an individual sport, and the pool of champions that have achieved sustained excellence is not that large. From the perspective of your question, however, skating is a sport just like any other. If you look at other sports with many more data points, you'll see that such cases are not uncommon. Michael Jordan in basketball (gave minor-league baseball a try), who won more NBA titles. Tommy John in baseball (after the elbow surgery named in his honor). Thomas Muster (injury) and Kim Clijsters (giving birth and raising a child) in tennis, both Major winners after coming back. Tiger Woods (scandal and then injuries) and Ben Hogan (a horrific car accident that almost took his life, after which he came back and won most of his Majors) in golf. I'm only giving you the headline names off the top of my head. The less exalted examples are legion. Any moderately informed fan of sports knows that comebacks, even after layoffs much longer than Yuna's, and at much older ages, and after life- and career-threatening injuries, are entirely possible.

Compared to some of those cases, Yuna's circumstances don't seem to be the dire destiny that you almost gleefully prophesy. She's relatively young, with no history of technical unsoundness, and has already demonstrated last year the ability to come back and be "competitive" (hernia-watch and all), and that on a one-off basis, after a year-long break. The talent hasn't gone anywhere. Sounds possible to me.

I am not trumpeting any view that Yuna is definitely coming back. In fact, I don't know any more than anyone else. I'd really like her to come back, but it's her choice and it could very well be that she chooses not to. But your sententious pronouncements that her being able to do so is utterly out of the question (on the most specious foundations), and that she wouldn't be competitive even if she did (because of the "new" COP, no less), were annoying, quite frankly, and I felt compelled to explain why.

It's always amusing to see people assuming that Liza won only because of her Federation (I supposed they missed the fact that Mishin's not on good terms with Piseev, Adelina's were much more favoured by the Federation).
The PCS is a question of personal taste since they were quiet low, her choreo is too - there's just a fact that she, judging with what we have now, will be a contender for the gold in London.

Yuna's fans assume that physical limitations that apply to human bodies in general don't apply to her, and that it is sacrilegious for any posters to make any deduction based on the assumption that she is human.

1. Are we assuming that Carolina's lutz never returns? Cause I'm not convinced it'll remain absent forever.

2. Do people believe that Ando, Rochette and Kim will actually return? If Skate Canada was slightly richer, I'd be favourable for a Rochette return, but Kim really does seem to have moved on with her life. She's admitted she wasn't particularly fond of competing. Her role in figure skating in the future will be less competition based, I suspect. Ando might or might not return, but I don't think she's the type of skater that can take a considerable amount of time off, return, and do well (more Pang/Tong than Plushenko, imo). Rochette - well, it's a hometown worlds, she's demonstrated that her technique is so good that an extended layoff won't affect the existence of her triples (unlike Sasha Cohen, for example). That stated, I don't think she'd come back anyway (nor do I think she'd beat Kostner, so it's a moot point).

3. I assume that the US Federation will go on a full court press for Ashley Wagner that'll make the push they made for Evan Lysacek look like child's play. Ditto the Russian federation with all its skaters (key word: ALL.) A boost to their PCS and a clean seven triple long would be something that Kostner would have to skate well to overcome.

4. But I also think that her strong season will contribute to Kostner growing in stature, confidence wise. A confident, 7 triple Kostner with her terrific PCS and strong overall skills.... well, a mighty hard combination for any talent to beat.

ImaginaryPogue said:

2. Do people believe that Ando, Rochette and Kim will actually return? If Skate Canada was slightly richer, I'd be favourable for a Rochette return, but Kim really does seem to have moved on with her life. She's admitted she wasn't particularly fond of competing. Her role in figure skating in the future will be less competition based, I suspect. Ando might or might not return, but I don't think she's the type of skater that can take a considerable amount of time off, return, and do well (more Pang/Tong than Plushenko, imo). Rochette - well, it's a hometown worlds, she's demonstrated that her technique is so good that an extended layoff won't affect the existence of her triples (unlike Sasha Cohen, for example). That stated, I don't think she'd come back anyway (nor do I think she'd beat Kostner, so it's a moot point).

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I agree with you. and I don't think Karo will be at Sochi.

hurrah said:

Yuna's fans assume that physical limitations that apply to human bodies in general don't apply to her, and that it is sacrilegious for any posters to make any deduction based on the assumption that she is human.

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Your sly agendas and hypocrisy are what are getting under my saddle. What if I went to the recent "What now for Mao" thread and said:

'Mao definitely cannot regain competitiveness, even if she wanted to. She's been on a downhill slide for two seasons now. She's too old at age 22 [she's 21, the same age as Yuna, to the season] to stop the bleeding. And because she absolutely, no way, no how, will be able to overcome her chronic weight problems. And even if she did, she wouldn't be as competitive given the low level of her achievable tech content, so she needs a 3lz-3t, and to upgrade her lines and flexibility. Oh, and positions, too.'

I maintain that I'm making unassailable deductions based on the assumption that she is human. U happy, or U mad?

In your post in the Mao thread, I noticed that you seemed pretty certain that Mao would be able to overcome her current issues. What enables such zealous certainty in both these case (but in opposite polarities), I wonder? It's admirable.

Myself, I prefer to maintain open possibilities for Yuna and Mao, because I believe that both of them are talented and hardworking enough to regain their places in this sport, and I genuinely wish them both the best.

Ew, you're stalking my posts now?

In the Mao thread, I wrote:

Regarding her jump technique revisions, I think the triple flip-triple loop is already there and since she was jumping the salchow in practice with a smoothness I hadn't seen before, that's pretty done as well. So it's just the lutz and the new triple-axel now, and I do worry about what practicing that new axel technique will do to her body! Though I know she's in good hands, I do worry about injuries because there's just no way to prevent that 100%. But barring injuries, all the work she's put in these past two years should finally come together next season, I hope.

hurrah said:

Ew, you're stalking my posts now?

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One doesn't have to stalk another to see his/her point of view when that is blatantly displayed all over the place. Just saying.

It's kinda funny when you look back Plushy whose coach was the great Mishin was the one always favored over Yagudin whose coach was Tarasova. Now it's Tatiana Tarasova's Adelina who turned out to be the favorite of Russian federation over Mishin's Liza. Interesting how things go around.

hurrah said:

Ew, you're stalking my posts now?

In the Mao thread, I wrote:

Regarding her jump technique revisions, I think the triple flip-triple loop is already there and since she was jumping the salchow in practice with a smoothness I hadn't seen before, that's pretty done as well. So it's just the lutz and the new triple-axel now, and I do worry about what practicing that new axel technique will do to her body! Though I know she's in good hands, I do worry about injuries because there's just no way to prevent that 100%. But barring injuries, all the work she's put in these past two years should finally come together next season, I hope.

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Your high regard for your own posts is not, I'm sorry to say, shared by me. I hope it doesn't disappoint you too much, but I wasn't looking for any posts by you (actually, I'd rather not see them). But the other thread was new and relatively short, so your post leaped off the page like a sore thumb, and the opportunity for satire was too tempting. This sometimes happens when one's interest in threads is fairly broad.

You conveniently excised your opening paragraph:

"She has demonstrated her incredible mental strength on so many occasions that that's one thing I just don't worry about with her. In fact, I look forward to being awed by Mao in the future many more times."

I share in your good wishes and respect for Mao. I was just amused (and awed) by your ability to immediately reverse position on your self-styled philosophy of human frailty without the least hint of self-consciousness.

Robeye said:

You're mixing walnuts and lima beans here.

http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/o100lto.htm

I'll even summarize what it says:

-Out of the top 10 COP points totals of all time, Yuna has 3 (and the very top three, around 208, 210 and 229, rounded up), or 30% of them. Carolina has 0.

-Out of the top 20, Yuna has 6, the lowest being almost 195. Again, 30% of the total. Carolina has 0.

-Out of the top 30, Yuna has 8, the lowest being around 192. This is 26% of the total. Carolina has 0.

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You are mixing walnuts and lima beans here. Yuna's big scoring days are over. Take out a spiral in the SP, take out a 2A in the long program. Take out the huge GOE back in the days, she would not reach that kind of score ever again.
So, next year, a perfect Caro will not lose to any of the previous Yuna performances except at the Olympics. Understand?

FlattFan said:

You are mixing walnuts and lima beans here. Yuna's big scoring days are over. Take out a spiral in the SP, take out a 2A in the long program. Take out the huge GOE back in the days, she would not reach that kind of score ever again.
So, next year, a perfect Caro will not lose to any of the previous Yuna performances except at the Olympics. Understand?

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On what basis are you concluding that Yuna's big scoring days are over? I still think a clean Yuna can beat a clean Caro with the same technical content. Let's face it, Yuna will not go into the competition without her trademark 3L-3T and that is going to score big points. While it's true Carolina is reigning world champion, Yuna is still the reigning OGM. These two factors place a sub-par Yuna above a clean Carolina. Yuna has rarely been clean in both programs, it was only during the Olympics in which she was clean in both the SP and LP. And she beat her closest competition (Mao) by over 15 points if I am correct.

I am neither a fan of Yuna or Carolina, and I am speaking based on their scoring ability.

It's wayyy to early to make predictions, but I wouldn't mind Carolina dominating the scene for the next two seasons. I love her style and speed across the ice.

Her jumps will also likely continue to improve. If she continues to skate until 2014, she may even have more difficult triple triples and hopefully regain her lutz.

I just keep wondering what her scores would be like if she skated with the same style but had the jump content from a couple of years ago. Her scores would be close to Yuna's I imagine.

FlattFan said:

You are mixing walnuts and lima beans here. Yuna's big scoring days are over. Take out a spiral in the SP, take out a 2A in the long program. Take out the huge GOE back in the days, she would not reach that kind of score ever again.
So, next year, a perfect Caro will not lose to any of the previous Yuna performances except at the Olympics. Understand?

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I like Karo. but she couldn't overcome olympic pressure already two times.

she is not yet in the same class with Kim,Asada.. even not with Rochette.

She should have proven herself in Olympics.

I don't even wanna see her performances in olympics, That was disastrous.


And I doubt she will be at Sochi.

Specially for favorites, Olympic pressure is very different from Worlds.

FlattFan said:

You are mixing walnuts and lima beans here. Yuna's big scoring days are over. Take out a spiral in the SP, take out a 2A in the long program. Take out the huge GOE back in the days, she would not reach that kind of score ever again.
So, next year, a perfect Caro will not lose to any of the previous Yuna performances except at the Olympics. Understand?

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I'm finding that understanding is pretty tough going.

-You're comparing a "perfect" Caro competitive program with no mistakes (something that's never actually been seen) with the entire body of Yuna's actual results, which are a mixed bag of her best and worst and everything in between? How does that make sense? Yuna was rarely ever completely clean. Her performances spanned from clean to not so clean, just like everyone else. It's just that in the aggregate, her scoring levels were the highest ever in the history of COP (and the high difficulty may partially explain the relative lack of "clean" competitions), and she never ever fell off a cliff relative to the field. I believe this is known as a "straw man" argument.

-What makes at least somewhat more sense is to compare competitive program layouts from both skaters, and ask, in an ideal scenario, what they might score if they were both "perfect" or clean. So, OK, let's compare their two most recent layouts, Carolina's WC 2012 programs and Yuna's WC 2011 programs, seeing as how both were constructed under fairly current rules. If you are asserting that a clean execution of Carolina's layout would result in a higher score than Yuna's layout, then I don't know what to say...My own (conservative) estimation is that there is about a 20 point differential in the points ceilings for clean execution of the respective layouts. And this is being generous to Caro, because she hasn't yet demonstrated what a completely clean set of programs would look like (and the scores that would result). We have a better sense with Yuna because her Olympic programs were, at minimum, at a similar level of difficulty to 2011.

Are you saying that Carolina is going to score at least 210 next year? Because that's what I think it would take to be at least in the ballpark of a clean Yuna (WC 2011) set of programs, which in my view is anywhere from 210-220 (taking into account the changes since the Olympics).

-If you want to create some hypothetical future layout for Caro that is significantly different from and more difficult than the current layout, then it's difficult to separate fact from fantasy until it's actually done (you could, hypothetically, construct a world-beating layout for any skater). Such hypothetical programs may, or may not, pan out. I don't have any issue with saying it could be done. But once again, if we want to compare walnuts with walnuts, it should be compared to some hypothetical Yuna layout-on-steroids, not to imperfectly executed historical programs.

Unless, of course, you're making the claim that, assuming she continues, Carolina is going to skate clean from here on out (whether on the current level of difficulty or a buffed-out version). To which I can only say: good luck with that.

Look, Carolina is a great skater and a worthy champion this year. But somehow implying (I think) that no version of an actual Yuna would beat a very hypothetically 'perfect' Carolina, is, uh, comparing walnuts to lima beans.

It is sad to think Yuna competed only four seasons in seniors, but I ve read she didn't like it competing, which was a surprise first time cause she had good nerves!karolina on the other hand has nothing to lose going to Sochi, she obviously enjoying competing and who will go from Italy anyway!

Becki said:

On what basis are you concluding that Yuna's big scoring days are over? I still think a clean Yuna can beat a clean Caro with the same technical content. Let's face it, Yuna will not go into the competition without her trademark 3L-3T and that is going to score big points. While it's true Carolina is reigning world champion, Yuna is still the reigning OGM. These two factors place a sub-par Yuna above a clean Carolina. Yuna has rarely been clean in both programs, it was only during the Olympics in which she was clean in both the SP and LP. And she beat her closest competition (Mao) by over 15 points if I am correct.

I am neither a fan of Yuna or Carolina, and I am speaking based on their scoring ability.

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Agreed (although I am a fan of Yuna, in case you hadn't noticed. But a reasonable one, I'd like to think ). Just two minor additions:

The gap is even larger because Yuna's most recent technical content is at a higher level than Carolina's most recent version. Could Carolina successfully skate to a layout with a level of difficulty comparable to Yuna's? Of course it's possible, but she's got to go out and prove it.

Yuna beat Mao by about 23 points in Vancouver, which might have been a bit closer if Mao had been completely clean.

Becki said:

On what basis are you concluding that Yuna's big scoring days are over? I still think a clean Yuna can beat a clean Caro with the same technical content. Let's face it, Yuna will not go into the competition without her trademark 3L-3T and that is going to score big points. While it's true Carolina is reigning world champion, Yuna is still the reigning OGM. These two factors place a sub-par Yuna above a clean Carolina. Yuna has rarely been clean in both programs, it was only during the Olympics in which she was clean in both the SP and LP. And she beat her closest competition (Mao) by over 15 points if I am correct.

I am neither a fan of Yuna or Carolina, and I am speaking based on their scoring ability.

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Yes, a clean Yuna will beat a clean Caro with the same technical content. That's the whole point. It will take her Olympic performance to beat a clean Caro next year. The chance of Caro being clean is slim, but that's the whole point of the thread, correct? I said "assuming Caro is clean in the SP, and didn't double the flip in the LP, who can challenge her?"

Why are people arguing about non-said stuff?

Seems like there's a rabid Yuna fan who's arguing on and on about some odd thing.