Who will challenge Carolina Kostner in London, Canada?

cosmos said:

YuNa doesn't do difficult jumps in a show probably because the ice rink is not wide enough. Anyway, she practices three hours a day.

Click to expand...

If rink size is the sole issue, I suppose none of the skaters will be able to jump at ATS show! Which would be a crap shoot for the audience. It's admirable that she practices so much when ATS show is the only vehicle that she presently has to show her skills. I hope she'll come back to competition.

FlattFan said:

Liza T? Assuming Adelina is perfect and couldn't do it, she will not be able to do it either. Her PCS are way lower to be in contention. If the previous few hit it, she will not make the final group, let alone a chance at a medal.

Click to expand...

Liza pcs are actually on par with Adelina's, not way lower..

Liza
SC 25.62 Sp/ 53.60 Lp
TEB 27.05 Sp/ 57.19 Lp
GPF 27.63 Sp/ 55.66 Lp
YO 27.41 Sp/ 54.80 Lp

Adelina
CoC 25.08 Sp 54.52 Lp
CoR 27.69 Sp 56.62 Lp
YO 26.78 Sp 52.92 Lp

I expect both pcs to go up next season, this was their first year.

Akiko Suzuki- she is only going to get better and better. Her star will continue to shine. She actually deserves the gold in Nice for me!
Ashley Wagner
Alena Leonova
Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
Adelina Sotnikova
Gracie Gold

hurrah said:

I don't think Yuna could make a comeback at this point even if she wanted to. She hasn't seriously trained for over a year now and I don't think she could regain the physique that she had at Olympics, particularly as she has to remain vigilant about her hernia. Even if she did, under the new CoP, she wouldn't be as competitive. She would need a loop, and her skating skills and spins would need to be upgraded.

It will be interesting to compare Yuna to Carolina at ATS this year.

Click to expand...

Ohh pllluuureeeassee...consider the latest Carolina standard to win, all she need is follow with the EXACT same content and maybe add a Lutz (although unnecessary), leave out the risky 3:3 off her FS. Learn to "slow down" (According the British Eurosport guys being Carolina's team main strategy + quality not quantity) and to focus on producing "quality" [i/e safely landed] on the less difficult triples like Carolina does, use alot of doubles in the combo after the half way for the 50% bonus. Difficulty? Speed? Flow? Artistically and Musically Challenged? Need for self realised music interpretation? Pahhhh .... highly over rated in figure skating!!

Just goto Nicols or better yet Morozov and buy one of their reputable COP templated program backloaded with jumps and stick to something musically safe, preferably one of the really old respected European classics, may be Bach or one of the Russian composers.

Piece of Cake really... But then again... i just realised it is not what she does, but who she knows to be to able to get away with this sort of diabolical approach. For her to earn her trophy, it would require much harder work...as usual. Why bother I'd say when she already has everything??


--------

Other skaters, Liza is my best bet, followed by Akiko and Kanako (impressed with her improvements this wc) then Gracie and Ashley (One is coming your way US, it works in cycles one for Asia, next Europe, then 1 for North America). I've always though Liza ice coverage issues is somewhat overly sensationalised as a problem, since she is a petite girl so it is natural extension of her physical limitations, but yes i can see how it impact the scores, but she has other great qualities that more than compensate for this. It is something she is currently working on and will only improve with time. She has the goods, just need to bring it with the right program/package. Make no mistake Liza do need much better programs + costumes that will complement her rather than she have to make up any weakness with her own wit.

I wouldn't count Mao out either. She just need to sort out her jump issues (easier said than done i know).

I don't think Kostner can win next year's WC with the same performances (7 triples in total without 3Lz) . The judges were determined to give her the title this year. The emergence of young Russians will put more values on technical contents.

Ando - probably comes back after comfirming the results in Nice
Asada - if she could give up (or shelve) the Axel
Sotnikova - needs to solve stamina issues though

Tuktamisheva - Russian #2 needs to wait Sonikova's mistakes
Americans - no chance
Murakami and Suzuki - ditto

hurrah said:

If rink size is the sole issue, I suppose none of the skaters will be able to jump at ATS show! Which would be a crap shoot for the audience. It's admirable that she practices so much when ATS show is the only vehicle that she presently has to show her skills. I hope she'll come back to competition.

Click to expand...

There are a lot reasons skaters don't do difficult jumps in shows ranging from the relaxed nature of skating shows to the small rink size. A lot of skaters avoid tougher jumps in galas mostly due to the lighting conditions than anything else. If the show uses a spotlight on you, you brain gets tricked into thinking the ice is moving underneath you faster than it actually is. Ditto if lighting on the ice constantly undergoes changes in color. If the show has limited lighting and a small rink, then it possible to misjudge a jump and hit a barrier. Strobelights and lasers are especially stupid and annoying.

NMURA said:

Tuktamisheva - Russian #2 needs to wait Sonikova's mistakes
Americans - no chance
Murakami and Suzuki - ditto

Click to expand...

Tuk is not #2 anymore. Except for the Nationals she did better than Adelina this season.
I think that Kanako also has a slim chanse at the Worlds gold (podium is not out of reach though) - it seems she's headcasing too much + is still rough around the edges.

Redstone said:

Tuk is not #2 anymore. Except for the Nationals she did better than Adelina this season.

Click to expand...

I've always got the impression that Russian federation's number one (promising lady) skater is Adelina, not Liza. I don't know how and why, it's just my impression.

Becki said:

Hold your horses.....the World Championships just ended today and you're predicting next year's results? A little too quick to jump to any conclusions, I would say

Just a comment on Ando - she has beaten Kostner in the past w/o a triple triple. I think she can do it again. She's a strong LP skater, and she should have no problem beating a clean Kostner. She has been skating in shows this whole season, and I think she's aiming to improve artistic components. She's a strong skater, and I would NEVER count her out.

I don't think Kostner is invincible, heck, I don't think she's that hard to beat.

Click to expand...

1. Ando has never beaten a clean Kostner.

2. Ando without a triple-triple would be slaughtered by a clean Kostner, especialy now that Kostner is World Champoin. What would she beat her with. Spins, PCS, LOL!

3. Ando of last year wasnt that hard to beat either, if the skating was the caliber of the 2010 Olympics she would have been blown to bits. Kostner this year and Ando last year both capatilized on the dire state of ladies skating at the moment, no difference.

pangtongfan said:

1. Ando has never beaten a clean Kostner.

2. Ando without a triple-triple would be slaughtered by a clean Kostner, especialy now that Kostner is World Champoin. What would she beat her with. Spins, PCS, LOL!

3. Ando of last year wasnt that hard to beat either, if the skating was the caliber of the 2010 Olympics she would have been blown to bits. Kostner this year and Ando last year both capatilized on the dire state of ladies skating at the moment, no difference.

Click to expand...

Ando can beat a clean Kostner. Like I said, if she goes for a triple triple in the SP. Add back triple flip in the LP for a 7 triple programs, she will beat a clean Kostner. It's not like her PCS will be 5 points behind Kostner. She got Morozov choreography and she's a two times WC. There's no reason to keep her PCS down.

With her skate last year, I can see her winning the Bronze at the Olympics over Joannie. Her SP was very good.
At the Olympics, she went for a 3x3, and under the old rule, it got downgraded to 3x2 with - GOE. Had she gone for a 3x2 with + GOE, she would be around ~68 range with a crap program.

l'etoile said:

I've always got the impression that Russian federation's number one (promising lady) skater is Adelina, not Liza. I don't know how and why, it's just my impression.

Click to expand...

Me too. Just like Mao, Japan #1, no matter what Suzuki or Murakami did.

FlattFan said:

Me too. Just like Mao, Japan #1, no matter what Suzuki or Murakami did.

Click to expand...

　I've thought Mao is not a JSF's favorite skater,but just a skater to earn money. The top of JSF often speak ill of her to mass media. What's more,Mao's so strong at Japan national while these two make errors.So the judges wouldn't give them more points than her. If they skate clean,I guess the judges will happily have one of them win.

Elizaveta was easily beating Sotnikova on the Grand Prix this year, so if Sotnikova was Russian #1 perhaps it isnt that important after all who the federation prefers. Mao likewise has been beaten by Suzuki all season long.

and the grand prix hasn't even started for 2012-2013
so its anyones ballgame, its not even guaranteed, It will be the same Carolina that we will be seeing next season
she could go to the Ando route, take a season's off just in time maybe for Ando's comeback to fill in for Kostner , lol

FlattFan said:

Ando can beat a clean Kostner. Like I said, if she goes for a triple triple in the SP. Add back triple flip in the LP for a 7 triple programs, she will beat a clean Kostner. It's not like her PCS will be 5 points behind Kostner. She got Morozov choreography and she's a two times WC. There's no reason to keep her PCS down.

With her skate last year, I can see her winning the Bronze at the Olympics over Joannie. Her SP was very good.
At the Olympics, she went for a 3x3, and under the old rule, it got downgraded to 3x2 with - GOE. Had she gone for a 3x2 with + GOE, she would be around ~68 range with a crap program.

Click to expand...

I agree with FlattFan. But maybe the true question is how many times in Kostner's career has she actually skated clean? I think we're all waiting for Mathman to give us the answer

pangtongfan said:

Elizaveta was easily beating Sotnikova on the Grand Prix this year, so if Sotnikova was Russian #1 perhaps it isnt that important after all who the federation prefers. Mao likewise has been beaten by Suzuki all season long.

Click to expand...

Mao beat Suzuki at Nat.
Same story with Adelina and Liza.

sky_fly20 said:

and the grand prix hasn't even started for 2012-2013
so its anyones ballgame, its not even guaranteed, It will be the same Carolina that we will be seeing next season
she could go to the Ando route, take a season's off just in time maybe for Ando's comeback to fill in for Kostner , lol

Click to expand...

If Kostner wants a medal in Sochi, she better win in 2013. With a Bronze, a Gold, and a Gold leading up to Sochi, there's no way in hell she would be off the podium.

FlattFan said:

If Kostner wants a medal in Sochi, she better win in 2013. With a Bronze, a Gold, and a Gold leading up to Sochi, there's no way in hell she would be off the podium.

Click to expand...

Its up to her, if she wants to compete until Sochi 2014
if so, she cannot afford to take a season's off, the 2 upcoming seasons are the most crucial
to build up reputation, renew skating and to get full experience leading to the Olympics

Kostner is hot/cold, but she has been more consistent these past seasons
Ando has improved her artistry and I'd say has a better chance to podium at Worlds again than Kostner

sky_fly20 said:

Its up to her, if she wants to compete until Sochi 2014
if so, she cannot afford to take a season's off, the 2 upcoming seasons are the most crucial
to build up reputation, renew skating and to get full experience leading to the Olympics

Kostner is hot/cold, but she has been more consistent these past seasons
Ando has improved her artistry and I'd say has a better chance to podium at Worlds again than Kostner

Click to expand...

I think Ando has a good chance to win Worlds next year if she leaves Morovoz (which she probably won't) or seek a better choreographer. Her exhibition pieces are really nice, but her competitive programs is just bleh.

At this point, nothing is certain. We don't know if Ando, Kim wants to come back. Mao is in question and if she continure to obssess with 3A, only certain that she will continure to goes down. Kostner just won it and maybe she wants to retire on high note. Who know??
Not to mention, the Russian wonder kids. Until the GPS begain, these skater actually skating on ice, there is no point.