Who will challenge Carolina Kostner in London, Canada?

Carolina Kostner, reigning WC, looks like the favorite to win again next year. Assuming she hits 3T3T, 3 loop in the SP, same as she did in the LP here without the double flip mistake, who will be the challengers? What will they need to challenge her?

Miki Ando? If she's back, she will need a triple triple in the short program. Needs a flawless 6 triples in the LP. The good news is she will have Morozov choreography, so she will automatically get huge PCS. The bad news is even with Morozov's backing, her PCS will still trail Caro's 1-2 points in the SP, and 2-3 points in the LP. She will need an extra triple to make up for it. I'm afraid it will be close without the flip. With a 7-triples LP, she might be able to do it.

Mao Asada? Without the 3A, she will need a triple triple in the SP to beat Carolina. Her PCS will not be enough. Without either 3A or 3x3, she will trail by 2-3 points in the SP. At her best, she can crack 130 in the LP. She can potentially beat Caro with a clean SP and a perfect skate of her life LP. Again, with her current status, I find this scenario even less likely than Miki's.

Akiko Suzuki? Her PCS will not do. No chance even when she skate without any error in both phases of the competition.

Kanako? Proved she's a good SP skater. Can do 3F-3T, 3Loop to put herself in contention after the SP. Will fall apart in the LP and become a non-factor.

Kiira Korpi? Her SP will score very high. She regularly hit 30+ PCS in the SP if she's clean. Will be in contention after the SP. Will not be a factor in the LP.

Ashley Wagner? Will need to hit 3F-3T, 3Loop perfectly to be in contention. Will need to be perfect in the LP to make top 6 if the previous girls are perfect. Also PCS are too low to be a factor.

Adelina? Her PCS will not do. She can hit 3flutz-3loop, 3flip in the SP. Depends on the caller, she might come close to Caro after the SP. Since hitting the senior level, she's never had a LP worthy of 120+. Will be tough. Even when she execute her LP perfectly, it will not be enough. Mirai's skate of her life at the Olympics was only 128? I think that will be Adelina's ceiling for the LP.

Liza T? Assuming Adelina is perfect and couldn't do it, she will not be able to do it either. Her PCS are way lower to be in contention. If the previous few hit it, she will not make the final group, let alone a chance at a medal.

Anyone else I miss?

FlattFan said:

Carolina Kostner, reigning WC, looks like the favorite to win again next year. Assuming she hits 3T3T, 3 loop in the SP, same as she did in the LP here without the double flip mistake, who will be the challengers? What will they need to challenge her?

Miki Ando? If she's back, she will need a triple triple in the short program. Needs a flawless 6 triples in the LP. The good news is she will have Morozov choreography, so she will automatically get huge PCS. The bad news is even with Morozov's backing, her PCS will still trail Caro's 1-2 points in the SP, and 2-3 points in the LP. She will need an extra triple to make up for it. I'm afraid it will be close without the flip. With a 7-triples LP, she might be able to do it.

Mao Asada? Without the 3A, she will need a triple triple in the SP to beat Carolina. Her PCS will not be enough. Without either 3A or 3x3, she will trail by 2-3 points in the SP. At her best, she can crack 130 in the LP. She can potentially beat Caro with a clean SP and a perfect skate of her life LP. Again, with her current status, I find this scenario even less likely than Miki's.

Akiko Suzuki? Her PCS will not do. No chance even when she skate without any error in both phases of the competition.

Kanako? Proved she's a good SP skater. Can do 3F-3T, 3Loop to put herself in contention after the SP. Will fall apart in the LP and become a non-factor.

Kiira Korpi? Her SP will score very high. She regularly hit 30+ PCS in the SP if she's clean. Will be in contention after the SP. Will not be a factor in the LP.

Ashley Wagner? Will need to hit 3F-3T, 3Loop perfectly to be in contention. Will need to be perfect in the LP to make top 6 if the previous girls are perfect. Also PCS are too low to be a factor.

Adelina? Her PCS will not do. She can hit 3flutz-3loop, 3flip in the SP. Depends on the caller, she might come close to Caro after the SP. Since hitting the senior level, she's never had a LP worthy of 120+. Will be tough. Even when she execute her LP perfectly, it will not be enough. Mirai's skate of her life at the Olympics was only 128? I think that will be Adelina's ceiling for the LP.

Liza T? Assuming Adelina is perfect and couldn't do it, she will not be able to do it either. Her PCS are way lower to be in contention. If the previous few hit it, she will not make the final group, let alone a chance at a medal.

Anyone else I miss?

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Miki Ando? ROTFL

Mao Asada? Doubt it.

Akiko Suzuki? Could threaten if Kostner makes mistakes only.

Kanako Murakami? Depends if she improves alot or not.

Kiira Korpi? ROTTTFFFFFLLLL

Ashley Wagner? If she matches her improvement rate of the last year possibly.

Adelina Sotnikova? Possible. I think the Russians will start the politiking hard in preperation for Sochi, and their young skaters have oodles of improvement left, especialy this one having made it past puberty now.

Elizaveta? Possible as well. She already has the jumps and the PCS should shoot well up with the combination of poliking and maturing.

Alena Leonova? Same as Suzuki, only if Kostner makes mistakes.

Yu Na Kim? If she returns in 80% of her 2010 form she would blow everyone to pieces, but I dont think she will return at all.


Kostner will defend her World title next year, but will have a challenge to hang on to win in 2014. The silver and bronze at the 2013 Worlds will go to Wagner and a Russian I predict.

Hold your horses.....the World Championships just ended today and you're predicting next year's results? A little too quick to jump to any conclusions, I would say

Just a comment on Ando - she has beaten Kostner in the past w/o a triple triple. I think she can do it again. She's a strong LP skater, and she should have no problem beating a clean Kostner. She has been skating in shows this whole season, and I think she's aiming to improve artistic components. She's a strong skater, and I would NEVER count her out.

I don't think Kostner is invincible, heck, I don't think she's that hard to beat.

Becki said:

Hold your horses.....the World Championships just ended today and you're predicting next year's results? A little too quick to jump to any conclusions, I would say

Just a comment on Ando - she has beaten Kostner in the past w/o a triple triple. I think she can do it again. She's a strong LP skater, and she should have no problem beating a clean Kostner. She has been skating in shows this whole season, and I think she's aiming to improve artistic components. She's a strong skater, and I would NEVER count her out.

I don't think Kostner is invincible, heck, I don't think she's that hard to beat.

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No doubt she can do it again, but this time, she's going up against a reigning WC. Their last match up, the LP at W 2011, Kostner with limited jumps, shaky throughout the program, beat her on PCS.
http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc2011/wc2011_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf

Kostner with perfect 6 triples will smoke her in PCS.

Like I said, if Kostner is clean in the SP, clean in the LP, who can beat her. You don't think she's that hard to beat, give an example.

It's hard to tell, but I hope Adelina, Kanako Gracie and Liza improve a lot over the summer and have a very strong season, is there any chance that Miki Ando will return at all??

I don't see why you would assume Murakami will collapse in the FP. She just finished fifth at her first Worlds with a total score just over one point less than Wagner (about fifteen points off Kostner). She should get respect from the judges for that finish and should be quite invigorated for next season. I realize there are some jump issues (there were errors in her FS and the mule kick is obvious) but they don't seem to be holding her back very much.

I guess I also see a lot more in Tut than you do. I expect her to be a big factor next year.

Ashley - why not?

Mao - one continues to hope. That's all I can say about her.

Miki - never underestimate the 2011 and 2007 World Champion and 2009 bronze medalist! If she is really shooting for Sochi, she'll come back in shape and competitive. I so wish it would be with a different choreographer, though!

I tend to agree with you about Akiko only because of her age but would love to be proven wrong.

Spun Silver said:

I don't see why you would assume Murakami will collapse in the FP. She just finished fifth at her first Worlds with a total score just over one point less than Wagner (about fifteen points off Kostner). She should get respect from the judges for that finish and should be quite invigorated for next season. I realize there are some jump issues (there were errors in her FS and the mule kick is obvious) but they don't seem to be holding her back very much.

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She finished eighth in her first worlds, seventh in the free program.

Spun Silver said:

I don't see why you would assume Murakami will collapse in the FP. She just finished fifth at her first Worlds with a total score just over one point less than Wagner

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Her second Worlds. She placed 8th in Moscow last year.

Carolina's not that hard to beat. I think she won this year in part because other world champion-worthy skaters had already gotten their medal and were training or resting with other goals (i.e., Olympic Sochi) in mind.

The question that would be more relevant is, will Carolina manage to improve in any significant way leading up to Sochi? One major problem with Carolina is that she's got messy edges. She's fast but it's uncontrolled speed and this would have to be addressed if she's going to improve.

ImaginaryPogue said:

She finished eighth in her first worlds, seventh in the free program.

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johnny 80 said:

Her second Worlds. She placed 8th in Moscow last year.

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Whoopsy. I totally forgot. Well, just goes to show how much she can improve in a year!

FlattFan said:

No doubt she can do it again, but this time, she's going up against a reigning WC. Their last match up, the LP at W 2011, Kostner with limited jumps, shaky throughout the program, beat her on PCS.
http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc2011/wc2011_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf

Kostner with perfect 6 triples will smoke her in PCS.

Like I said, if Kostner is clean in the SP, clean in the LP, who can beat her. You don't think she's that hard to beat, give an example.

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Since when has Carolina gone totally clean in a World Championship? She's done it in B-competitions, but rarely in major ones, and IIRC never in big competitions like Worlds. Her potential score is high if she skates clean, but even in her best performance she doubled a jump in both the SP and LP. She's still very much vulnerable.

She'll be skating in Canada, not Europe, and Sochi is just around the corner so the Russian federation is hard at work. Sotnikova and Tuktamisheva can easily get a big PCS boost in their senior debut. Look at Yuna and Mao's PCS in their first Worlds. Yuna broke the record in the short, and had she not fallen on both her triple Lutz and her 3S+2T combo voided, she could have won the title. And this without a powerful federation to back her up. Sotnikova and Tuktamisheva will have far better political support in their first senior Worlds.

Krislite said:

Since when has Carolina gone totally clean in a World Championship? She's done it in B-competitions, but rarely in major ones, and IIRC never in big competitions like Worlds. Her potential score is high if she skates clean, but even in her best performance she doubled a jump in both the SP and LP. She's still very much vulnerable.

She'll be skating in Canada, not Europe, and Sochi is just around the corner so the Russian federation is hard at work. Sotnikova and Tuktamisheva can easily get a big PCS boost in their senior debut. Look at Yuna and Mao's PCS in their first Worlds. Yuna broke the record in the short, and had she not fallen on both her triple Lutz and her 3S+2T combo voided, she could have won the title. And this without a powerful federation to back her up. Sotnikova and Tuktamisheva will have far better political support in their first senior Worlds.

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That's true. Carolina will be messy. For the sake of argument, let's pretend she's clean. Who can beat her?

Regarding yuna and Mao debut a while back, that year, mostly fresh blood, no michelle, no Irina, no shizuka, no big names skating at world. They didn's reserve Pcs for anyone. Next year, you have Carolina skating, they will hold her up no matter what a bunch of newbies do.

pangtongfan said:

Miki Ando? ROTFL


Yu Na Kim? If she returns in 80% of her 2010 form she would blow everyone to pieces, but I dont think she will return at all.

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You say this, but then, what happened last year? Oh wait, I remember, Yuna came with her 3lz-3t and Miki did no 3-3s and didn't even pull off her intended 2a-3t and won. Be realistic, now.

silverlake22 said:

You say this, but then, what happened last year? Oh wait, I remember, Yuna came with her 3lz-3t and Miki did no 3-3s and didn't even pull off her intended 2a-3t and won. Be realistic, now.

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I don't think Yuna could make a comeback at this point even if she wanted to. She hasn't seriously trained for over a year now and I don't think she could regain the physique that she had at Olympics, particularly as she has to remain vigilant about her hernia. Even if she did, under the new CoP, she wouldn't be as competitive. She would need a loop, and her skating skills and spins would need to be upgraded.

It will be interesting to compare Yuna to Carolina at ATS this year.

silverlake22 said:

You say this, but then, what happened last year? Oh wait, I remember, Yuna came with her 3lz-3t and Miki did no 3-3s and didn't even pull off her intended 2a-3t and won. Be realistic, now.

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"If she returns in 80% of her 2010 form "

hurrah said:

I don't think Yuna could make a comeback at this point even if she wanted to. She hasn't seriously trained for over a year now and I don't think she could regain the physique that she had at Olympics, particularly as she has to remain vigilant about her hernia. Even if she did, under the new CoP, she wouldn't be as competitive. She would need a loop, and her skating skills and spins would need to be upgraded.

It will be interesting to compare Yuna to Carolina at ATS this year.

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This seems to me a triumph of wishful thinking over analysis.

-Lack of serious training: Yuna didn't seriously train for the better part of a year prior to 2011 Worlds, and then, with no preliminary events whatsoever, proceeded to score almost 195, missing gold by the slimmest of margins, a margin that disappears, in my view, in the statistical variation for PCS scoring (in other words, on a different judging day, she could have won).

-Regaining physique/"hernia vigilance": Yuna is 21, not exactly an age where the ability to regain physique becomes the key factor, IMO. I am reluctant to mention Plushenko's return after an even more extended layoff (at the age of, what was it, 27 or so?), as this is too obvious, but there it is.

The "hernia vigilance" didn't seem to stop Yuna from breaking records at 2009 Worlds, 2010 Olys, and get silver at Worlds 2010 and 2011 (the last after the aforementioned layoff of almost a year). One could just as easily argue that the extended layoff has allowed her body to more fully recover from the chronic ailments exacerbated by the grind of competitive training (a positive outcome that is frequently seen in sports; check baseball, football, basketball, tennis, golf, etc. etc.). Unless you are her physician or physiotherapist, allow me to remain skeptical of your judgments, given the actual historical record.

-"Competitive" issues under new COP: Again referring back to last year's Worlds (is that "new" enough for you?), Yuna's two skates were technically among the most poorly executed that she has ever done. On the technical elements executed, this competition was pretty close to Yuna's historical performance floor. If she was anywhere near clean, any reasonable assumptions for the scoring under the "new" COP would have resulted in something north of 210 (and in my opinion, well north, if we factor in the boost to PCS).

There is no question that changes in COP in the last few years have affected Yuna's points ceiling (I will not go into the question of whether this was deliberately so), but these effects didn't erase the dominance of that points ceiling, it was a question of "dominate by how much". If Worlds 2011 demonstrated anything, it certainly was not that Yuna was not as "competitive" under the "new" COP. Miki skated pretty close to her historical limits, while Yuna had a technical meltdown compared to hers, and yet they were neck and neck. How much more competitive can a skater get?

-Given the above, a) Yuna does not need a loop to be "as competitive" under COP, new or otherwise, b) her skating skills have always been among the leaders of this sport (look it up), and c) there may be areas in which her spins could be improved, but they are strong in others, resulting in very good scores (again, look it up). Even as currently constituted, they will never hurt her chances to win, let alone remain "competitive". If Yuna had been winning conventional single-digit margins, then the argument would have merit. But that's clearly not the case here.

That being said, my biggest caveat is Yuna's level of desire. She's been pretty clear about issues with competitive desire at her last two Worlds, and it showed well before the actual events (e.g. the curtailing of training and/or competition schedules). And I certainly don't question that it takes more effort to regain form after an extended layoff. But if she regains that desire next year (and shows it by skating the entire season), then IMO none of the factors that you mention are exactly the insurmountable hurdles that you portray them to be (and certainly not the "new" COP).

If she doesn't exhibit full commitment but chooses to skate, then who really knows? If 2011 Worlds is anything to go by, I personally think she would still have a shot at winning ugly (particularly if the other skaters are not on their games), but I freely admit that this is just speculation.

I look forward to seeing how much Yuna has managed to maintain and how many jumps she will do when she performs at ATS.

hurrah said:

I look forward to seeing how much Yuna has managed to maintain and how many jumps she will do when she performs at ATS.

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YuNa doesn't do difficult jumps in a show probably because the ice rink is not wide enough. Anyway, she practices three hours a day.

hurrah said:

I look forward to seeing how much Yuna has managed to maintain and how many jumps she will do when she performs at ATS.

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You're really reaching now.

[Just a comment on Ando - she has beaten Kostner in the past w/o a triple triple. I think she can do it again. She's a strong LP skater, and she should have no problem beating a clean Kostner. She has been skating in shows this whole season, and I think she's aiming to improve artistic components. She's a strong skater, and I would NEVER count her out.

I don't think Kostner is invincible, heck, I don't think she's that hard to beat.[/QUOTE]

I completely agree. Let's not forget she also lost to Alissa this season as well. Carolina was the best this year with or without the generous scoring. She won't use the same interesting programs as they won't have the same effect on judges and audience. She's gotten her Academy Award for her body of work plus the WC will not be in Europe next year. One relatively consistent year in a weakened field does not erase years of inconsistent and sometimes horrendous skating....albeit fast and sometimes brilliant...but still often sloppy. With all the technique changes and personal turmoil Mao's been through, it's amazing she even showed up. She is one tough cookie! I suspect a much improved Mao will be back in the hunt next year as will all the other Japanese and Russian phenoms. Yes, she could do it again, but more often than not, Kostner beats Kostner.