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Thread: Who will challenge Carolina Kostner in London, Canada?

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by hurrah View Post
    I don't think Yuna could make a comeback at this point even if she wanted to. She hasn't seriously trained for over a year now and I don't think she could regain the physique that she had at Olympics, particularly as she has to remain vigilant about her hernia. Even if she did, under the new CoP, she wouldn't be as competitive. She would need a loop, and her skating skills and spins would need to be upgraded.

    It will be interesting to compare Yuna to Carolina at ATS this year.
    This seems to me a triumph of wishful thinking over analysis.

    -Lack of serious training: Yuna didn't seriously train for the better part of a year prior to 2011 Worlds, and then, with no preliminary events whatsoever, proceeded to score almost 195, missing gold by the slimmest of margins, a margin that disappears, in my view, in the statistical variation for PCS scoring (in other words, on a different judging day, she could have won).

    -Regaining physique/"hernia vigilance": Yuna is 21, not exactly an age where the ability to regain physique becomes the key factor, IMO. I am reluctant to mention Plushenko's return after an even more extended layoff (at the age of, what was it, 27 or so?), as this is too obvious, but there it is.

    The "hernia vigilance" didn't seem to stop Yuna from breaking records at 2009 Worlds, 2010 Olys, and get silver at Worlds 2010 and 2011 (the last after the aforementioned layoff of almost a year). One could just as easily argue that the extended layoff has allowed her body to more fully recover from the chronic ailments exacerbated by the grind of competitive training (a positive outcome that is frequently seen in sports; check baseball, football, basketball, tennis, golf, etc. etc.). Unless you are her physician or physiotherapist, allow me to remain skeptical of your judgments, given the actual historical record.

    -"Competitive" issues under new COP: Again referring back to last year's Worlds (is that "new" enough for you?), Yuna's two skates were technically among the most poorly executed that she has ever done. On the technical elements executed, this competition was pretty close to Yuna's historical performance floor. If she was anywhere near clean, any reasonable assumptions for the scoring under the "new" COP would have resulted in something north of 210 (and in my opinion, well north, if we factor in the boost to PCS).

    There is no question that changes in COP in the last few years have affected Yuna's points ceiling (I will not go into the question of whether this was deliberately so), but these effects didn't erase the dominance of that points ceiling, it was a question of "dominate by how much". If Worlds 2011 demonstrated anything, it certainly was not that Yuna was not as "competitive" under the "new" COP. Miki skated pretty close to her historical limits, while Yuna had a technical meltdown compared to hers, and yet they were neck and neck. How much more competitive can a skater get?

    -Given the above, a) Yuna does not need a loop to be "as competitive" under COP, new or otherwise, b) her skating skills have always been among the leaders of this sport (look it up), and c) there may be areas in which her spins could be improved, but they are strong in others, resulting in very good scores (again, look it up). Even as currently constituted, they will never hurt her chances to win, let alone remain "competitive". If Yuna had been winning conventional single-digit margins, then the argument would have merit. But that's clearly not the case here.

    That being said, my biggest caveat is Yuna's level of desire. She's been pretty clear about issues with competitive desire at her last two Worlds, and it showed well before the actual events (e.g. the curtailing of training and/or competition schedules). And I certainly don't question that it takes more effort to regain form after an extended layoff. But if she regains that desire next year (and shows it by skating the entire season), then IMO none of the factors that you mention are exactly the insurmountable hurdles that you portray them to be (and certainly not the "new" COP).

    If she doesn't exhibit full commitment but chooses to skate, then who really knows? If 2011 Worlds is anything to go by, I personally think she would still have a shot at winning ugly (particularly if the other skaters are not on their games), but I freely admit that this is just speculation.

  2. #17
    Custom Title hurrah's Avatar
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    I look forward to seeing how much Yuna has managed to maintain and how many jumps she will do when she performs at ATS.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hurrah View Post
    I look forward to seeing how much Yuna has managed to maintain and how many jumps she will do when she performs at ATS.
    YuNa doesn't do difficult jumps in a show probably because the ice rink is not wide enough. Anyway, she practices three hours a day.

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by hurrah View Post
    I look forward to seeing how much Yuna has managed to maintain and how many jumps she will do when she performs at ATS.
    You're really reaching now.

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    [Just a comment on Ando - she has beaten Kostner in the past w/o a triple triple. I think she can do it again. She's a strong LP skater, and she should have no problem beating a clean Kostner. She has been skating in shows this whole season, and I think she's aiming to improve artistic components. She's a strong skater, and I would NEVER count her out.

    I don't think Kostner is invincible, heck, I don't think she's that hard to beat.[/QUOTE]

    I completely agree. Let's not forget she also lost to Alissa this season as well. Carolina was the best this year with or without the generous scoring. She won't use the same interesting programs as they won't have the same effect on judges and audience. She's gotten her Academy Award for her body of work plus the WC will not be in Europe next year. One relatively consistent year in a weakened field does not erase years of inconsistent and sometimes horrendous skating....albeit fast and sometimes brilliant...but still often sloppy. With all the technique changes and personal turmoil Mao's been through, it's amazing she even showed up. She is one tough cookie! I suspect a much improved Mao will be back in the hunt next year as will all the other Japanese and Russian phenoms. Yes, she could do it again, but more often than not, Kostner beats Kostner.
    Last edited by tampro1; 04-02-2012 at 04:15 AM.

  6. #21
    Custom Title hurrah's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cosmos View Post
    YuNa doesn't do difficult jumps in a show probably because the ice rink is not wide enough. Anyway, she practices three hours a day.
    If rink size is the sole issue, I suppose none of the skaters will be able to jump at ATS show! Which would be a crap shoot for the audience. It's admirable that she practices so much when ATS show is the only vehicle that she presently has to show her skills. I hope she'll come back to competition.

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Liza T? Assuming Adelina is perfect and couldn't do it, she will not be able to do it either. Her PCS are way lower to be in contention. If the previous few hit it, she will not make the final group, let alone a chance at a medal.
    Liza pcs are actually on par with Adelina's, not way lower..

    Liza
    SC 25.62 Sp/ 53.60 Lp
    TEB 27.05 Sp/ 57.19 Lp
    GPF 27.63 Sp/ 55.66 Lp
    YO 27.41 Sp/ 54.80 Lp

    Adelina
    CoC 25.08 Sp 54.52 Lp
    CoR 27.69 Sp 56.62 Lp
    YO 26.78 Sp 52.92 Lp

    I expect both pcs to go up next season, this was their first year.

  8. #23
    Custom Title christinaskater's Avatar
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    Akiko Suzuki- she is only going to get better and better. Her star will continue to shine. She actually deserves the gold in Nice for me!
    Ashley Wagner
    Alena Leonova
    Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
    Adelina Sotnikova
    Gracie Gold

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by hurrah View Post
    I don't think Yuna could make a comeback at this point even if she wanted to. She hasn't seriously trained for over a year now and I don't think she could regain the physique that she had at Olympics, particularly as she has to remain vigilant about her hernia. Even if she did, under the new CoP, she wouldn't be as competitive. She would need a loop, and her skating skills and spins would need to be upgraded.

    It will be interesting to compare Yuna to Carolina at ATS this year.
    Ohh pllluuureeeassee...consider the latest Carolina standard to win, all she need is follow with the EXACT same content and maybe add a Lutz (although unnecessary), leave out the risky 3:3 off her FS. Learn to "slow down" (According the British Eurosport guys being Carolina's team main strategy + quality not quantity) and to focus on producing "quality" [i/e safely landed] on the less difficult triples like Carolina does, use alot of doubles in the combo after the half way for the 50% bonus. Difficulty? Speed? Flow? Artistically and Musically Challenged? Need for self realised music interpretation? Pahhhh .... highly over rated in figure skating!!

    Just goto Nicols or better yet Morozov and buy one of their reputable COP templated program backloaded with jumps and stick to something musically safe, preferably one of the really old respected European classics, may be Bach or one of the Russian composers.

    Piece of Cake really... But then again... i just realised it is not what she does, but who she knows to be to able to get away with this sort of diabolical approach. For her to earn her trophy, it would require much harder work...as usual. Why bother I'd say when she already has everything??


    --------

    Other skaters, Liza is my best bet, followed by Akiko and Kanako (impressed with her improvements this wc) then Gracie and Ashley (One is coming your way US, it works in cycles one for Asia, next Europe, then 1 for North America). I've always though Liza ice coverage issues is somewhat overly sensationalised as a problem, since she is a petite girl so it is natural extension of her physical limitations, but yes i can see how it impact the scores, but she has other great qualities that more than compensate for this. It is something she is currently working on and will only improve with time. She has the goods, just need to bring it with the right program/package. Make no mistake Liza do need much better programs + costumes that will complement her rather than she have to make up any weakness with her own wit.

    I wouldn't count Mao out either. She just need to sort out her jump issues (easier said than done i know).
    Last edited by os168; 04-02-2012 at 08:19 AM.

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    I don't think Kostner can win next year's WC with the same performances (7 triples in total without 3Lz) . The judges were determined to give her the title this year. The emergence of young Russians will put more values on technical contents.

    Ando - probably comes back after comfirming the results in Nice
    Asada - if she could give up (or shelve) the Axel
    Sotnikova - needs to solve stamina issues though

    Tuktamisheva - Russian #2 needs to wait Sonikova's mistakes
    Americans - no chance
    Murakami and Suzuki - ditto

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by hurrah View Post
    If rink size is the sole issue, I suppose none of the skaters will be able to jump at ATS show! Which would be a crap shoot for the audience. It's admirable that she practices so much when ATS show is the only vehicle that she presently has to show her skills. I hope she'll come back to competition.
    There are a lot reasons skaters don't do difficult jumps in shows ranging from the relaxed nature of skating shows to the small rink size. A lot of skaters avoid tougher jumps in galas mostly due to the lighting conditions than anything else. If the show uses a spotlight on you, you brain gets tricked into thinking the ice is moving underneath you faster than it actually is. Ditto if lighting on the ice constantly undergoes changes in color. If the show has limited lighting and a small rink, then it possible to misjudge a jump and hit a barrier. Strobelights and lasers are especially stupid and annoying.

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by NMURA View Post

    Tuktamisheva - Russian #2 needs to wait Sonikova's mistakes
    Americans - no chance
    Murakami and Suzuki - ditto
    Tuk is not #2 anymore. Except for the Nationals she did better than Adelina this season.
    I think that Kanako also has a slim chanse at the Worlds gold (podium is not out of reach though) - it seems she's headcasing too much + is still rough around the edges.

  13. #28
    Simply the best. l'etoile's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Redstone View Post
    Tuk is not #2 anymore. Except for the Nationals she did better than Adelina this season.
    I've always got the impression that Russian federation's number one (promising lady) skater is Adelina, not Liza. I don't know how and why, it's just my impression.

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Becki View Post
    Hold your horses.....the World Championships just ended today and you're predicting next year's results? A little too quick to jump to any conclusions, I would say :P

    Just a comment on Ando - she has beaten Kostner in the past w/o a triple triple. I think she can do it again. She's a strong LP skater, and she should have no problem beating a clean Kostner. She has been skating in shows this whole season, and I think she's aiming to improve artistic components. She's a strong skater, and I would NEVER count her out.

    I don't think Kostner is invincible, heck, I don't think she's that hard to beat.
    1. Ando has never beaten a clean Kostner.

    2. Ando without a triple-triple would be slaughtered by a clean Kostner, especialy now that Kostner is World Champoin. What would she beat her with. Spins, PCS, LOL!

    3. Ando of last year wasnt that hard to beat either, if the skating was the caliber of the 2010 Olympics she would have been blown to bits. Kostner this year and Ando last year both capatilized on the dire state of ladies skating at the moment, no difference.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    1. Ando has never beaten a clean Kostner.

    2. Ando without a triple-triple would be slaughtered by a clean Kostner, especialy now that Kostner is World Champoin. What would she beat her with. Spins, PCS, LOL!

    3. Ando of last year wasnt that hard to beat either, if the skating was the caliber of the 2010 Olympics she would have been blown to bits. Kostner this year and Ando last year both capatilized on the dire state of ladies skating at the moment, no difference.
    Ando can beat a clean Kostner. Like I said, if she goes for a triple triple in the SP. Add back triple flip in the LP for a 7 triple programs, she will beat a clean Kostner. It's not like her PCS will be 5 points behind Kostner. She got Morozov choreography and she's a two times WC. There's no reason to keep her PCS down.

    With her skate last year, I can see her winning the Bronze at the Olympics over Joannie. Her SP was very good.
    At the Olympics, she went for a 3x3, and under the old rule, it got downgraded to 3x2 with - GOE. Had she gone for a 3x2 with + GOE, she would be around ~68 range with a crap program.

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