This seems to me a triumph of wishful thinking over analysis.Originally Posted by hurrah
-Lack of serious training: Yuna didn't seriously train for the better part of a year prior to 2011 Worlds, and then, with no preliminary events whatsoever, proceeded to score almost 195, missing gold by the slimmest of margins, a margin that disappears, in my view, in the statistical variation for PCS scoring (in other words, on a different judging day, she could have won).
-Regaining physique/"hernia vigilance": Yuna is 21, not exactly an age where the ability to regain physique becomes the key factor, IMO. I am reluctant to mention Plushenko's return after an even more extended layoff (at the age of, what was it, 27 or so?), as this is too obvious, but there it is.
The "hernia vigilance" didn't seem to stop Yuna from breaking records at 2009 Worlds, 2010 Olys, and get silver at Worlds 2010 and 2011 (the last after the aforementioned layoff of almost a year). One could just as easily argue that the extended layoff has allowed her body to more fully recover from the chronic ailments exacerbated by the grind of competitive training (a positive outcome that is frequently seen in sports; check baseball, football, basketball, tennis, golf, etc. etc.). Unless you are her physician or physiotherapist, allow me to remain skeptical of your judgments, given the actual historical record.
-"Competitive" issues under new COP:Again referring back to last year's Worlds (is that "new" enough for you?), Yuna's two skates were technically among the most poorly executed that she has ever done. On the technical elements executed, this competition was pretty close to Yuna's historical performance floor. If she was anywhere near clean, any reasonable assumptions for the scoring under the "new" COP would have resulted in something north of 210 (and in my opinion, well north, if we factor in the boost to PCS).
There is no question that changes in COP in the last few years have affected Yuna's points ceiling (I will not go into the question of whether this was deliberately so), but these effects didn't erase the dominance of that points ceiling, it was a question of "dominate by how much". If Worlds 2011 demonstrated anything, it certainly was not that Yuna was not as "competitive" under the "new" COP. Miki skated pretty close to her historical limits, while Yuna had a technical meltdown compared to hers, and yet they were neck and neck. How much more competitive can a skater get?
-Given the above, a) Yuna does not need a loop to be "as competitive" under COP, new or otherwise, b) her skating skills have always been among the leaders of this sport (look it up), and c) there may be areas in which her spins could be improved, but they are strong in others, resulting in very good scores (again, look it up). Even as currently constituted, they will never hurt her chances to win, let alone remain "competitive". If Yuna had been winning conventional single-digit margins, then the argument would have merit. But that's clearly not the case here.
That being said, my biggest caveat is Yuna's level of desire. She's been pretty clear about issues with competitive desire at her last two Worlds, and it showed well before the actual events (e.g. the curtailing of training and/or competition schedules). And I certainly don't question that it takes more effort to regain form after an extended layoff. But if she regains that desire next year (and shows it by skating the entire season), then IMO none of the factors that you mention are exactly the insurmountable hurdles that you portray them to be (and certainly not the "new" COP).
If she doesn't exhibit full commitment but chooses to skate, then who really knows? If 2011 Worlds is anything to go by, I personally think she would still have a shot at winning ugly (particularly if the other skaters are not on their games), but I freely admit that this is just speculation.
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