Who will challenge Carolina Kostner in London, Canada?

[FlattFan]

I've always got the impression that Russian federation's number one (promising lady) skater is Adelina, not Liza. I don't know how and why, it's just my impression.

Me too. Just like Mao, Japan #1, no matter what Suzuki or Murakami did.

[ayayukiituka]

Me too. Just like Mao, Japan #1, no matter what Suzuki or Murakami did.

　I've thought Mao is not a JSF's favorite skater,but just a skater to earn money. The top of JSF often speak ill of her to mass media. What's more,Mao's so strong at Japan national while these two make errors.So the judges wouldn't give them more points than her. If they skate clean,I guess the judges will happily have one of them win.

[pangtongfan]

Elizaveta was easily beating Sotnikova on the Grand Prix this year, so if Sotnikova was Russian #1 perhaps it isnt that important after all who the federation prefers. Mao likewise has been beaten by Suzuki all season long.

[sky_fly20]

and the grand prix hasn't even started for 2012-2013
so its anyones ballgame, its not even guaranteed, It will be the same Carolina that we will be seeing next season
she could go to the Ando route, take a season's off just in time maybe for Ando's comeback to fill in for Kostner , lol

[tampro1]

Ando can beat a clean Kostner. Like I said, if she goes for a triple triple in the SP. Add back triple flip in the LP for a 7 triple programs, she will beat a clean Kostner. It's not like her PCS will be 5 points behind Kostner. She got Morozov choreography and she's a two times WC. There's no reason to keep her PCS down.

With her skate last year, I can see her winning the Bronze at the Olympics over Joannie. Her SP was very good.
At the Olympics, she went for a 3x3, and under the old rule, it got downgraded to 3x2 with - GOE. Had she gone for a 3x2 with + GOE, she would be around ~68 range with a crap program.

I agree with FlattFan. But maybe the true question is how many times in Kostner's career has she actually skated clean? I think we're all waiting for Mathman to give us the answer

[FlattFan]

Elizaveta was easily beating Sotnikova on the Grand Prix this year, so if Sotnikova was Russian #1 perhaps it isnt that important after all who the federation prefers. Mao likewise has been beaten by Suzuki all season long.

Mao beat Suzuki at Nat.
Same story with Adelina and Liza.

[FlattFan]

and the grand prix hasn't even started for 2012-2013
so its anyones ballgame, its not even guaranteed, It will be the same Carolina that we will be seeing next season
she could go to the Ando route, take a season's off just in time maybe for Ando's comeback to fill in for Kostner , lol

If Kostner wants a medal in Sochi, she better win in 2013. With a Bronze, a Gold, and a Gold leading up to Sochi, there's no way in hell she would be off the podium.

[sky_fly20]

If Kostner wants a medal in Sochi, she better win in 2013. With a Bronze, a Gold, and a Gold leading up to Sochi, there's no way in hell she would be off the podium.

Its up to her, if she wants to compete until Sochi 2014
if so, she cannot afford to take a season's off, the 2 upcoming seasons are the most crucial
to build up reputation, renew skating and to get full experience leading to the Olympics

Kostner is hot/cold, but she has been more consistent these past seasons
Ando has improved her artistry and I'd say has a better chance to podium at Worlds again than Kostner

[Becki]

Its up to her, if she wants to compete until Sochi 2014
if so, she cannot afford to take a season's off, the 2 upcoming seasons are the most crucial
to build up reputation, renew skating and to get full experience leading to the Olympics

Kostner is hot/cold, but she has been more consistent these past seasons
Ando has improved her artistry and I'd say has a better chance to podium at Worlds again than Kostner

I think Ando has a good chance to win Worlds next year if she leaves Morovoz (which she probably won't) or seek a better choreographer. Her exhibition pieces are really nice, but her competitive programs is just bleh.

[wonderlen3000]

At this point, nothing is certain. We don't know if Ando, Kim wants to come back. Mao is in question and if she continure to obssess with 3A, only certain that she will continure to goes down. Kostner just won it and maybe she wants to retire on high note. Who know??
Not to mention, the Russian wonder kids. Until the GPS begain, these skater actually skating on ice, there is no point.

[b-man]

Probably all 3 Russians will challenge Kostner, 2 of the Japanese who are skating best next year, and at least Ashley for the US. Hopefully, another American will step up to at least challenge for the podium if not for the gold.

[pangtongfan]

Ando can beat a clean Kostner. Like I said, if she goes for a triple triple in the SP. Add back triple flip in the LP for a 7 triple programs, she will beat a clean Kostner. It's not like her PCS will be 5 points behind Kostner. She got Morozov choreography and she's a two times WC. There's no reason to keep her PCS down.

With her skate last year, I can see her winning the Bronze at the Olympics over Joannie. Her SP was very good.
At the Olympics, she went for a 3x3, and under the old rule, it got downgraded to 3x2 with - GOE. Had she gone for a 3x2 with + GOE, she would be around ~68 range with a crap program.

I agree if Ando were doing the triple-triples in both programs and skated cleanly that she could beat a clean Kostner with her current jump content, but Ando hasnt done a ratified triple-triple in years, let alone in the short program, not even last season when she was skating the best she had in years, so that possability is virtually non existent. I was responding to someone who seemed to imply Ando without any 3-3s could beat a clean Kostner, which would not happen, especialy now that Kostner is World Champion.

I also have to disagree about beating Rochette in Vancouver. Rochette in Vancouver scored about 7 points higher than Ando at Worlds last year. A clean Rochette with a triple-double skating on her home ice would beat a clean Ando with a triple-double (you seem to concede so with your 68 range estimate, remember Rochette was close to 72 in Vancouver), and Ando's LP at last years Worlds at best was only roughly on par with Rochette in Vancouver. Maybe Ando from 4CCs 2011 could have beaten Rochette for the bronze in Vancouver, or perhaps that is what you meant.

By contrast if Rochette had competed last season it would have been her best chance ever to win Worlds. Maybe this year as well. Heck right now is a big opportunity for everyone since nobody is skating at a level in the same stratosphere as Yu Na Kim did in 2009-2010 or Mao Asada did at times in the previous quad. Someone just has to step up and capatilize. Basically someone with Wagner's attitude or Suzuki's staying power but with more talent than those two skaters.

[FlattFan]

I agree if Ando were doing the triple-triples in both programs and skated cleanly that she could beat a clean Kostner with her current jump content, but Ando hasnt done a ratified triple-triple in years, let alone in the short program, not even last season when she was skating the best she had in years, so that possability is virtually non existent. I was responding to someone who seemed to imply Ando without any 3-3s could beat a clean Kostner, which would not happen, especialy now that Kostner is World Champion.

Ando doesn't need 3x3 in the LP. She has a very reliable 2A-3T.
She needs a 3x3 in the SP. I think she can add the 3T on her 3Sal or 3Loop. Do 3lutz as a solo jump.

I also have to disagree about beating Rochette in Vancouver. Rochette in Vancouver scored about 7 points higher than Ando at Worlds last year. A clean Rochette with a triple-double skating on her home ice would beat a clean Ando with a triple-double (you seem to concede so with your 68 range estimate, remember Rochette was close to 72 in Vancouver), and Ando's LP at last years Worlds at best was only roughly on par with Rochette in Vancouver. Maybe Ando from 4CCs 2011 could have beaten Rochette for the bronze in Vancouver, or perhaps that is what you meant.

Yes, 68 for that crap Requiem SP. Her SP last season would score very close to Rochette.
Her 6-triple LP last year would beat Rochette for the bronze. At world, she only did 5 triples.

Between Miki and Caro, whoever win next year will get a medal in 2014. There's no way they will hold down a 2-3 times WC in Sochi. Next year is a make it or break it year for both of them.

[Becki]

Ando doesn't need 3x3 in the LP. She has a very reliable 2A-3T.
She needs a 3x3 in the SP. I think she can add the 3T on her 3Sal or 3Loop. Do 3lutz as a solo jump.



Yes, 68 for that crap Requiem SP. Her SP last season would score very close to Rochette.
Her 6-triple LP last year would beat Rochette for the bronze. At world, she only did 5 triples.

Between Miki and Caro, whoever win next year will get a medal in 2014. There's no way they will hold down a 2-3 times WC in Sochi. Next year is a make it or break it year for both of them.

I remember in 2007, Miki had solid 3-3s. I think one was 3L-3T. Why did she abandon it?!

[Krislite]

I don't think Yuna could make a comeback at this point even if she wanted to. She hasn't seriously trained for over a year now and I don't think she could regain the physique that she had at Olympics, particularly as she has to remain vigilant about her hernia. Even if she did, under the new CoP, she wouldn't be as competitive. She would need a loop, and her skating skills and spins would need to be upgraded.

It will be interesting to compare Yuna to Carolina at ATS this year.

Why would Yuna need the loop just to be "competitive", when no Flip got Ando a World title and no Lutz got Kostner a World title? Upgrade her skating skills and get back the loop? Who would she be competing against next year? A time-traveling Midori Ito?

Carolina won the World title with a score of 189 points. Even Yuna's botched programs last year would have handily beat that (she got 194 total). She would have had to had done worse than last year to get below 189. What did she miss last year? She missed her 3x3 in the short, a 3Salchow combo, a 3Flip, and she omitted her 2A+3T combo. So I just can't comprehend this logic that she needs to skate clean, needs a 3Loop and an upgraded skating skills just to be "competitive" with Kostner of all people.