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Thread: Alissa Czisny plans to compete next season

  1. #196
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trewyn View Post
    WHAT? That was '09, where Ashley finished 4th overall and paid a very high price for those mistakes in the SP (she was in 12th). In 2008 Ashley landed the triple lutz-triple loop combo in both in the SP and in the LP. Even with the wrong take-off edge, that was still by far the hardest combination of any ladies in the competition.
    Oh, that year. My bad.
    Still don't see her winning.

    SP, 2A looked URed.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWQXLQDv1OE

    LP, stumbled a bit on the 3loop-2loop combo. URed, too.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ShGt3JB_uu0

    Rachael beat her on TES. They both got the same on PCS, I believe.

  2. #197
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    Alissa does seem to get relatively high PCS scores, even when she bombs. I don't like that aspect of the scoring system, which one has very little ( <10%) variation in PCS scores between a great skate and a poor skate. But she does pull those good scores internationally as well. It's a tough situation because any of the other US girls are giving almost 10 points in PCS for the competition, plus Alissa spins better than any of them, so she can mess up a lot of jumps and still end up ahead.
    It would be easy to remedy that flaw in the IJS. Eliminate partial credit for falls.

  3. #198
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    It's a nightmare to contemplate Alissa again making top 2 at Nationals 2013 and having Olympic slots dependent on her performance at Worlds. There's nothing to stop her from continuing to compete through 2018 if she can stumble her way through the jumps and just depend on spins to guarantee her a spot on the World team year after year.

  4. #199
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    Alissa does seem to get relatively high PCS scores, even when she bombs. I don't like that aspect of the scoring system, which one has very little ( <10%) variation in PCS scores between a great skate and a poor skate. But she does pull those good scores internationally as well. It's a tough situation because any of the other US girls are giving almost 10 points in PCS for the competition, plus Alissa spins better than any of them, so she can mess up a lot of jumps and still end up ahead.
    Yeah...Czisny can still be awful enough at times to make all that irrelevant, though.

    ________________________________

    If you really wanted to rig the event against Czisny (disclaimer: I would never condone this), what you could do is:

    a) hire a strict tech caller to dock her on URs (note this would have the side effect of hurting other UR/edge-prone skaters like Nagasu & Wagner)

    b) Since it may not look good to hold Czisny DOWN PCS-wise, what you do is bump UP the PCS scores of her competitors to be more in line with hers (call it National inflation if you want). Therefore, when she makes the inevitable mistake and other(s) are clean, down she goes in the standings.

    c) In the short program skate order, deliberately arrange it so Czisny is the LAST skater out of the contenders. (This is a psychological thing, to make her wait longer, to potentially put more pressure on her should someone else do really well...and we all know how good she is with pressure)

    d) If Czisny is in a hole after the SP, and is not in the final FS warmup group, you can hold her back somewhat on PCS scores, even if she skates well (like they did to Flatt last year, for instance)

    (or, you could just hire some thugs to whack her knee...kidding!!!)

    ______________________________

    But we don't want to do it like that. It's easier to just leave the national championships as they are, and simply extend the criteria for needing to make the world team. One way would be to require a WIN at nationals to make the team, and everyone else either skates off for spot 2, or is chosen at discretion (based on hard numbers, of course).
    Last edited by R.D.; 04-16-2012 at 05:27 PM.

  5. #200
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    But we don't want to do it like that. It's easier to just leave the national championships as they are, and simply extend the criteria for needing to make the world team. One way would be to require a WIN at nationals to make the team, and everyone else either skates off for spot 2, or is chosen at discretion (based on hard numbers, of course).
    So what if, as of the end of Nationals, Czisny has the best hard numbers, aside from the champion if she's second again? Isn't that pretty much what the situation was this year?

  6. #201
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    Quote Originally Posted by gkelly View Post
    So what if, as of the end of Nationals, Czisny has the best hard numbers, aside from the champion if she's second again? Isn't that pretty much what the situation was this year?
    Well...LAST year, 5th at Worlds looked pretty good next to her 2 GP medals and GPF qualification. And Nationals indicated that at least she's on the upswing after GPF. Again, I had no problem with her initial selection to the team, but obviously something went very, very wrong in the 2 months afterward and no notice was taken of it.

    THIS time, she'll have 22nd at last year's Worlds as a black mark. That alone could result in passing her up for the 3rd place skater, particularly if it happens to be, say, Wagner.

  7. #202
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    So do you want the world team not to be named the week of Nationals? Or make the assignment provisional on performance at Four Continents (or Junior Worlds if applicable)?

    And would that confirmation by performance be determined by scores earned or by placements relative to the whole field or relative to the other Americans under consideration?

    Or based on practice monitoring?

    Up to what point would it be appropriate for a skater be pulled from the world team after being named? Even after the ISU deadline for naming the team?

  8. #203
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    Quote Originally Posted by macy View Post
    she did place third in the FS behind flatt and wagner. but she had a 5+ point margin in the short that held her up.
    She virtually tied Flatt in the LP. She should have placed 4th, atleast several points below both Zhang and Flatt. Had that happened and she still won overall, there wouldnt have been as much issue around her win.

    Anyway the bottom line is it is very easy for the US judges to lower her PCS from what they are right now if she makes any mistakes, and nobody will complain or defend her if they do. Thus she will have to skate much better to make any future World teams.

    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    In the SP,
    Wagner double fted the 3flip - single the toe on the combo. should be -3GOE
    Double fted the flutz. edge & double ft, should be -3GOE

    Clearly what? She shouldn't even be on the podium
    You have the wrong Nationals. At the 2008 Nationals Wagner skated virtually clean and landed a triple lutz-triple loop cleanly in both programs. Her only minor error in either program was a step out of a simple double jump in the LP. Flatt skated well too, but Flatt should never beat Wagner skating that well and with that content period. Nagasu deservedly won the SP but made mistakes in her LP. Wagner was clearly the rightful winner that year over Nagasu if it were marked properly. The mistakes you tried to point out where minor to what Nagasu's winning LP had which were a fall and some other major miscues.

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    It's a nightmare to contemplate Alissa again making top 2 at Nationals 2013 and having Olympic slots dependent on her performance at Worlds. There's nothing to stop her from continuing to compete through 2018 if she can stumble her way through the jumps and just depend on spins to guarantee her a spot on the World team year after year.
    Indeed which is why her kid gloves treatment is over. The USFSA are not stupid, they already wisely disposed of Flatt last season and after the debacle of the last couple months and with a good field of up and comers and young veterans starting to form, Czisny will be next on their list. Even if she is not dumped altogether ala Flatt, she will have to skate extremely well to make the U.S World team next year. No more gifts.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    ^ What Macy said.

    I don't really see that Alissa is so outrageously held up in program component scores at nationals, in comparison to her marks internationally. In the 2011-12 season her PCSs going into nationals were:

    Skate America 62.91
    Eric Bompard 61.84
    Garnd Prix final 58.45 (for a terrible skate technically, earning only 40 points in TES.)
    61.83 U.S. Nationals
    Skate America was scored as if it were U.S Nationals for the Americans, so they are basically one and the same. Czisny's performance at Eric Bompard was much better, while her performance at the Grand Prix final was closer to her US Nationals skate.
    Last edited by Tonichelle; 04-16-2012 at 07:55 PM.

  9. #204
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    Quote Originally Posted by gkelly View Post
    So do you want the world team not to be named the week of Nationals? Or make the assignment provisional on performance at Four Continents (or Junior Worlds if applicable)?
    Perhaps it would depend on the year, but generally, probably best to wait until after 4CCs- if not to name the actual team, at least to determine order of alternates.

    And would that confirmation by performance be determined by scores earned or by placements relative to the whole field or relative to the other Americans under consideration?
    Relative to teammates, of course.

    Up to what point would it be appropriate for a skater be pulled from the world team after being named? Even after the ISU deadline for naming the team?
    The alternate(s) need(s) to be on standby until the moment the team departs for the championship site.

  10. #205
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    The alternate(s) need(s) to be on standby until the moment the team departs for the championship site.
    Yes, that's true -- in case one of the skaters originally named to the team gets injured or otherwise is unable to go and compete.

    My question is, at what point is it appropriate to tell someone who was originally named to the team, even if only provisionally, "Sorry, we changed our minds. Cancel your travel plans, we're going to send someone else instead." And on what basis?

  11. #206
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    I doubt the USFSA would do that gkelly. It would prevent participation in events like Challenge Cup if that would risk your spot, or perhaps someone who made the team pulls out of 4CC due to "injury" but will be fine for Worlds. If they want more data points they need to push back the announcement like Russia did this year with the ladies. I see no reason to make the announcement at Nationals because the decision is usually announced after the live telecast ends. (I remember in 1996 Dick Button announced the ladies team as being Kwan, Tonia, and Nicole, assuming she would get placed on the team with an injury bye.) The problem is that if you have a skate off at 4CC and the national champ wants to go to this important event, you have to narrow the skate-off down to two skaters and this year there were 3 women who I would have wanted to see fight for the 2nd spot.

  12. #207
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    My question is, at what point is it appropriate to tell someone who was originally named to the team, even if only provisionally, "Sorry, we changed our minds. Cancel your travel plans, we're going to send someone else instead."
    That's actually a good question. My whole basis is that world team members are monitored regularly, and are notified in advance that if they become (seriously) injured, or their performance level drops dramatically (not talking off-day here- I mean something like what happened to Czisny this year), then the right is reserved to pull them and send the alternate. For that matter, you could also monitor alternates (you probably would only need one session close to competition time, if one of the team members is looking iffy) but it wouldn't be absolutely necessary to do so. Considering that we've had withdrawals as close as the Friday before the event, perhaps the timetable could be similar? Up to the week before the championship event...but of course, if a pullout is inevitable, the alternate would have to be notified earlier- I'd say perhaps at least a week in advance.

    I doubt the USFSA would do that gkelly. It would prevent participation in events like Challenge Cup if that would risk your spot, or perhaps someone who made the team pulls out of 4CC due to "injury" but will be fine for Worlds.
    Regular monitoring sessions might prevent this. Also, waiting until AFTER 4CC to name the team would prevent the latter issue. You can even delay the naming of the world team until close to the deadline for submissions. There is no hurry to do it right at Nationals.

    I even think USFS should consider moving Nationals back to early January, like it was pre-2007. This would give more prep time for 4CCs in the event of a skateoff, for instance.

  13. #208
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    The monitoring sessions could be a good idea, but from a cost perspective it might be impractical. Our top skaters train all over the country and to pay for travel, hotel, etc. might be difficult for a cash strapped organization like USFSA. We also have skaters who practice great but may be weak in competition. I can see why the USFSA has decided to keep it simple and just pick the top finishers from Nationals but it certainly might not be the best way to field a team.

  14. #209
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    You have the wrong Nationals. At the 2008 Nationals Wagner skated virtually clean and landed a triple lutz-triple loop cleanly in both programs. Her only minor error in either program was a step out of a simple double jump in the LP. Flatt skated well too, but Flatt should never beat Wagner skating that well and with that content period. Nagasu deservedly won the SP but made mistakes in her LP. Wagner was clearly the rightful winner that year over Nagasu if it were marked properly. The mistakes you tried to point out where minor to what Nagasu's winning LP had which were a fall and some other major miscues.
    I had the wrong Nat. I posted 2 video clips of the correct Nats, and she did have several problems. Her 2A in the SP was questionable. In the LP, she messed up her 3loop combo. Her TES (even with clean 3lutz-3loop in both programs) was lower than Flatt's.
    If it were marked properly, all of the flutz would be called, they would maybe downgrade the loop jump on her 3lz-loop combo. She would fall down even further.

    It wasn't like Flatt's PCS was inflated to give her the win. She beat Wagner on TES.

  15. #210
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    Even if USFS lacks resources to do extensive monitoring (honestly, I think it would be a good investment after sport promotion), AT LEAST consider competitions other than Nationals in the naming of the world team and wait until after Four Continents to do so (this would give you an extra data point). 4CC would be good grounds for a skateoff if a) the results are close, b) someone with no prior experience takes Nationals by storm- this would weed out flukes, c) a historically good skater has an off-night or d) the "Czisny case" where someone with poor finish(es) at Worlds is in contention.

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