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Thread: 2012-13 Grand Prix Speculation

  1. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    ^ Will the new rules go into effect for the 2012-13 season?
    Yes, from what I have heard.

  2. #92
    Celebrating the Excellence of #VirtueMoir golden411's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    ... What is interesting is that now the GP selection comes BEFORE the Congress meeting in June. So what happens with the proposed new age rules (15 by July 1st for all Senior competitions)? Will Lipnitskaia (14 in June) be allowed to move up to the GP, or will she have to do the JGP again?
    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    ^ Will the new rules go into effect for the 2012-13 season?
    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    Yes, from what I have heard.

    Quote Originally Posted by mskater93 View Post
    One of the other proposed rules is also no jumping from Jr-Sr-Jr so if she can do (and does) Sr GP, she can't do Jr Worlds...

    FWIW: I have ventured a look at the 138-page pdf of the ISU Congress agenda. Some of the discussion of proposed changes in age rules is on pp. 27-28.

    I do not see a clear indication of when the new Senior requirement of age 15 would go into effect. [So chuckm's information very well could be accurate.]

    Proposed changes in maximum Junior and Novice ages would be "valid" from July 1, 2014.
    And the agenda also states, "To make it easier for the Members to adjust their training programs to the proposed age requirements, a two years postponement of the new age limitation for Junior Men in Pairs and Ice Dance and the Novice age is been proposed. Within that time the Members can update their training and recruiting programs."

    (Amid the dry bureaucratese of the document, I wasn't expecting the bluntness of this line: "It is also embarrassing that a Skater can win the Grand Prix Final, but is not permitted to participate in ISU 'Senior' Championships.")

  3. #93
    Spiral Lover tulosai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    It's been mentioned on another site that the ISU has done away with the optional 3rd spot for seeds. That's good news, indeed.

    What is interesting is that now the GP selection comes BEFORE the Congress meeting in June. So what happens with the proposed new age rules (15 by July 1st for all Senior competitions)? Will Lipnitskaia (14 in June) be allowed to move up to the GP, or will she have to do the JGP again?
    I will be bored out of my mind if she has to do the JGP again. Barring a puberty meltdown the margin between her and the others is so great (especially with Gracie moving to the GP) that it seems pretty pointless to keep her down there.

  4. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by tulosai View Post
    I will be bored out of my mind if she has to do the JGP again. Barring a puberty meltdown the margin between her and the others is so great (especially with Gracie moving to the GP) that it seems pretty pointless to keep her down there.
    Well, I agree. But I mean, Polina Shelepen tore up the JGP her first year out then went on to do TWO more seasons on the JGP, and it hasn't seemed to have hurt her. Idk. I hope the rule doesn't change so Julia can do the GP, but if it does change, I don't think an exception should be made for her, and I don't think it would be the end of the world. There are always a lot of talented girls on the JGP, next season there certainly will, there are more girls coming up from Russia, US has a lot of good skaters to send like Wang, Jiang, Keiser, Long, Edmunds, Miller, Hicks, and maybe Cesario, etc, Miyahara will probably do JGP again and Japan always has strong girls. Julia would likely win for sure, but it's not like she'd be bored out of her mind if she had to do JGP again.

  5. #95
    Custom Title DianaSelene's Avatar
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    That is so annoying. Lipnitskaya won everything on the junior circuit last season and only got second at senior nationals. Why do it again? Plus, I think it would hurt her to do jgp again because if she wants to try for the olympics, getting her name out on seniors as soon as possible is important. Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva have already done that and it was a good experience for both. Lipnitskaya will get nothing out of staying in juniors.

  6. #96
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    When they debuted in the GP last season, Tuktamysheva was 14 and 10 months, and Sotnikova was 15 and 3 months. Lipnitskaia will turn 14 in June, so would be only 14 and 4 months at the start of the GP---that IS very young.

    I think skaters get out of their competition experience what they put into it.

    Lipnitskaia could work on the technical aspect of her programs while in juniors. At JW, she did 2a+3t+2t, 2a+3t, 3z, 3lo, 3f+2t, 3f, 3s. She front-loaded most of her combos, repeated 2a+3t, and did only one lutz.

    At her young age, Lipnitskaia will have plenty of Olympics ahead of her. She will be 20 in 2018 and 24 in 2022. If she is really as good as she seems, staying junior one more year won't destroy her long-term skating career. And it is quite possible that she may experience the puberty bug in the next couple of years anyway, much as Sotnikova was going through this past season.

  7. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post

    At her young age, Lipnitskaia will have plenty of Olympics ahead of her. She will be 20 in 2018 and 24 in 2022. If she is really as good as she seems, staying junior one more year won't destroy her long-term skating career. And it is quite possible that she may experience the puberty bug in the next couple of years anyway, much as Sotnikova was going through this past season.
    Wow. That really made me realize both how young she is and how long a competitive career can be if you want!

  8. #98
    At the rink. Again. mskater93's Avatar
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    A lot of you missed the no more flipping back and forth between Junior and Senior for the age eligible (the Dennis Ten rule). If the age rule for Senior events does not go into place in 2012-13 season but the no going back rule does, then Lipnitskaia's season would end (at best) at the GP Final.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mskater93 View Post
    A lot of you missed the no more flipping back and forth between Junior and Senior for the age eligible (the Dennis Ten rule). If the age rule for Senior events does not go into place in 2012-13 season but the no going back rule does, then Lipnitskaia's season would end (at best) at the GP Final.
    there are still Senior B internationals she could do. Challenge Cup got mighty popular this year; Triglav Trophy is in the spring too. and she could do World Team Trophy too.

    Her season could also start earlier too. in 2010-11, Gachinski did Finlandia and Cup of Nice before his two GP events. Biryukova won Finlandia and Agafonova won Cup of Nice this past season...Lipnitskaia could easily win two Senior B's and rack up some World Ranking points that'll help her get into later starting group draws

    Junior Worlds is more or less the only event that the no going back rule prevents her from doing...how much would it hurt her not to go to Junior Worlds? Tuktamisheva chose not to go this year, ending her season in January at the Youth Olympics. Since the Olympics require skaters to peak more than a month earlier than Worlds, perhaps Lipnitskaia may prefer having her 2012-13 season end a bit earlier and get more rest/a head start.

  10. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by mskater93 View Post
    A lot of you missed the no more flipping back and forth between Junior and Senior for the age eligible (the Dennis Ten rule). If the age rule for Senior events does not go into place in 2012-13 season but the no going back rule does, then Lipnitskaia's season would end (at best) at the GP Final.
    In some ways though, this is good, maybe it will encourage more nations to follow the Japan trend of sending different skaters (for the most part) to 4CC and Worlds so as to spread the wealth. I know USFS likes to ensure good results by sending skaters like Gao and Zawadzki to JW after competing on the senior GP but not making Worlds or 4CC, but in some ways it's probably best to give the younger true junior skaters a chance to go to JW instead.

    In regards to the men, this is a little more upsetting though, because younger skaters generally don't have the same kind of power and difficult jumps as the older skaters who have gone through puberty already but are still age-eligible for juniors. For example, Josh Farris and Jason Brown are eligible by age to go to two more JWs, but if either or both chose to move to the SGP this coming season, which they honestly should after the results they have had and the scores they put up this season, they can't be sent to JW again, so the USFS would most likely be sending youngsters like Chen, who lack the power and maturity to get PCS needed to medal (I would assume, Chen is a phenom, but seeing Nyugen and Uno skate so well and place 13th and 10th doesn't make me too hopeful...) or older skaters who have stayed on the JGP due to technical limitations, such as Choate who has no 3a and would likely fair similar to Dolensky who only managed 12th this year, to JW and their odds of placing well are not nearly as good, and the US could well be down to 1 or 2 spots the next year.

    I would hate to see Brown and Farris do JGP again if they truly want to move to seniors just because they want to keep their options open post nationals. If they do JGP, they could still be sent to Worlds (or 4CC) like Dornbush was in 2011 because they compete senior at Nationals, but if they don't make Worlds or 4CC teams, they could still be sent (and likely would be sent) to JW. I mean, if they chose to stay on the JGP because that is what they and their coaches think is best and have valid reasoning behind it (maybe Jason wants to try getting his 3a out, and Josh his 4t, in a less pressure filled situation), then that is one thing, but if they want to move up, I hope they do and don't change their minds because of this ruling.

    I think if someone is young enough to go to JW and wants to be considered for JW if they don't make SW or 4CC teams, then it should be allowed, regardless of if they skate as a junior or senior during the fall international season. I understand not wanting a skater to compete at both JW and senior Worlds, but if it's JW or nothing, the skater should be given the opportunity for a post-nationals assignment if willing and age-eligible. I wish the rule was switched to just prevent skaters from competing at both JW and senior Worlds - if given the choice, you should have to pick. But the current rule is a little irritating and I wish they'd change it. It provides less incentive for skaters to move up internationally if they want to keep their options open. Josh Farris is as good if not better than Adam Rippon and Ross Miner already, he could well medal at SENIOR GP events, so I'll be a little bummed if he does JGP again just to keep his post nationals options open. Same for Jason Brown, I know he has no 3a yet, but he is ready for senior GP too, so I hope he moves up. The USFS needs the JGP spots for the young up and coming skaters, but they need skaters like Jason and Josh to help get spots at JW if they don't manage to make the senior World team.
    Last edited by silverlake22; 05-08-2012 at 11:08 AM.

  11. #101
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    Then there are skaters like Denis TEN, who has competed at JR AND SR Worlds AND 4CC for years, simply because he can. This may be one of the motivators for the new rule.

  12. #102
    At the rink. Again. mskater93's Avatar
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    Yes, that's why I called it the "Dennis Ten rule" in parenthesis in my reminder of this new rule that is up for vote.

  13. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    Then there are skaters like Denis TEN, who has competed at JR AND SR Worlds AND 4CC for years, simply because he can. This may be one of the motivators for the new rule.
    Yes, this I have issue with, but not skaters going to JW because they are young enough to and didn't make the senior World team and the federation wants to give them a chance to earn a higher SB and gain valuable JGP spots and JW spots for the next season. Choose between senior worlds and junior worlds if you represent a federation where you have one or two good skaters that are age eligible for both, otherwise, let skaters who skate senior in the fall compete at JW if they are young enough and not going to senior worlds. I don't think that is totally unreasonable, especially in the case of men where there is such a big difference btwn a 13-14 yo skater and those that are 16-19, all of which are age eligible for juniors. If anything, the age limit for juniors should be lowered if they are so keen on enforcing this rule. 19 by July 1st is too old, 18 would be better, and even 16 or 17 could make sense. For girls it doesn't make that much of a difference, a 13 year old can compete against and beat a 19 year old, clearly, we saw Julia dominate this season at 13, and Liza and Adelina at 13/14 last season, and Shelepen and Kanako at 14/15 the year before that. But a 13 year old little boy has no chance to beat these fully grown men age 16-19 who are bigger and stronger and therefore have harder jumps and more power. Nathan Chen won nationals but he is an anomaly, a complete phenom, and I doubt he will get the same kind of PCS internationally, I would be really surprised if he managed to medal at JW next year...well maybe with the new rule his odds would be better, but still.

  14. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brenda View Post
    Junior Worlds is more or less the only event that the no going back rule prevents [Lipnitskaia] from doing...how much would it hurt her not to go to Junior Worlds?
    She would get no ISU Championship points, since she's too young for Euros and Worlds---and that IS a lot of points [500 for a JW win]. But I don't think that's going to be Julia's problem---not getting to do the GP is.

  15. #105
    Simply the best. l'etoile's Avatar
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    Whoa, what happened to this thread? I was a bit stirred when I found this on page 3!

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