Well the Shibs did medal in their GPs (two bronzes) in their debut year, so certainly S/Z could. Depends on their competition. They are unlikely going to pass the worlds medalists (who will likely get gold) or a surging W/P or C/L. bronze is most likely if they do get a medal.Originally Posted by gmyers
Shibs scored 82 for their FD at Worlds, 10 points behind B/S and 13 behind I/K. Surely a twizzle sequence isn't worth that much? Even with the big mistake, they likely only would have been 6th or 7th had they skated well. The scores would have been close to I/K and C/L, but my guess is they would have been behind both and fighting for 6th place with B/S. The bronze last season was a fluke and shouldn't have happened, I know P/B made a big mistake, but 3rd should have gone to W/P or B/S honestly.
B/S made bigger mistakes than the Shibutanis and still beat them at Worlds this year. It is true the Shibutanis bronze at Worlds last year was one of the biggest flukes in the history of ice dancing. If the event were run the next week with a new panel of judges they probably come 7th or 8th. Of course they will always go down as the bronze medalists that year so good for them, and they might get back to a World podium someday but it sure as heck wont be anytime until after Sochi if it happens.
In any case the idea the Shibutanis have more shot of a medal in Sochi than a Russian dance team at this point is comical at best (and no I am definitely not talking about R/T who are unlikely to even make the Sochi Olympics as the #3 Russian team).
If they had been their usual selves they would have been medal worthy in Nice, LOL! Too cute.
Last edited by pangtongfan; 04-16-2012 at 11:18 AM.
while Ice Dance maybe the easiest and most predictable of all the skating discipline
on the contrary to 2014 saying that the top 3 are locks, I wouldn't even count on that , 2 more years to go and alot has happened
and who would have thought to say that C/L are moving up there , W/P fast progress or how the boring Shibutanis and the old school B/S are regressing
It depends on a teams progress and definitely they could get a medal even in their first seniors Shibutanis or I/K
imo, S/Z have the best potential out of all the russian team, fix her posture and leaving Kustarova thus hopefully Tarasova will adopt them
and No, the Shibutanis are not a podium threat, they were lucky they won a fluke worlds bronze that would have gotten by P/B ,
well not at least after 2014 . The cutesy and more cutesy looks won't cut it this time,
Last edited by sky_fly20; 04-16-2012 at 12:13 PM.
me too, I will eat my words if B/S are still Rus No.1 by next season , imo they may even have a hard time getting a spot for the 2014 Olympics
I/K will be No.1 in Russia by Sochi or S/Z could really fare enough to be No.1, thus they will have to compete with R/T on the third spot
and even then, they might give the 3rd team spot if based on past Olympics reputation ; they might test it with Stepanova/Bukin Jr.
Amazing all the hate for the Shibs just because they beat your favorites teams last year. Even if they got lucky to medal they still would have finished 4th or 5th in their first Worlds. Not bad for a 19 and 16 year old kid.
S/Z would be lucky to win any medals. The fact that when it comes to seniors the coaches don't know what they are doing is very bad for them. They are talented and I should say most of these teams have talent but not enough and the programs and packaging are truly bad and totally out of line with what is being done now.
I wasn't just going by FD scores but total scores. B/S were only 6 points ahead of the S/S and that was with S/S not doing an element. They could not do an element and be ahead of R/T and if they did would have been ahead of B/S.
I don't agree that B/S made bigger mistakes than S/S. S/S didn't do twizzles in the FD! None of the B/S mistakes even come close to that.B/S made bigger mistakes than the Shibutanis and still beat them at Worlds this year. It is true the Shibutanis bronze at Worlds last year was one of the biggest flukes in the history of ice dancing. If the event were run the next week with a new panel of judges they probably come 7th or 8th. Of course they will always go down as the bronze medalists that year so good for them, and they might get back to a World podium someday but it sure as heck wont be anytime until after Sochi if it happens.
In any case the idea the Shibutanis have more shot of a medal in Sochi than a Russian dance team at this point is comical at best (and no I am definitely not talking about R/T who are unlikely to even make the Sochi Olympics as the #3 Russian team).
If they had been their usual selves they would have been medal worthy in Nice, LOL! Too cute.
S/S are a bigger podium thread in Sochi than any Russian team. A Russian team is not going to win an Olympic medal before a world or Euros or even a GP medal.while Ice Dance maybe the easiest and most predictable of all the skating discipline
on the contrary to 2014 saying that the top 3 are locks, I wouldn't even count on that , 2 more years to go and alot has happened
and who would have thought to say that C/L are moving up there , W/P fast progress or how the boring Shibutanis and the old school B/S are regressing
It depends on a teams progress and definitely they could get a medal even in their first seniors Shibutanis or I/K
imo, S/Z have the best potential out of all the russian team, fix her posture and leaving Kustarova thus hopefully Tarasova will adopt them
and No, the Shibutanis are not a podium threat, they were lucky they won a fluke worlds bronze that would have gotten by P/B ,
well not at least after 2014 . The cutesy and more cutesy looks won't cut it this time,
The idea that S/Z or Stepanova and Bukin or whoever can debut with equal standing to current third place team P/B is not likely. The Olympics would be one of the first major senior competitions for S/Z or S/B and I doubt they would do that well in PCS even if they were technically flawless. You might be talking about 2 Euros and 1 worlds as their major experience and then right to the Olympics?
The Shibutanis didnt beat any of my favorite teams. They beat Pechalat & Bourzat who are one of my least favorite dance teams of all time (although objectively I acknowledge they would have gotten the bronze easily with an even less bad fall since it is pretty obvious). The only team that even finished in the top 7 that I liked are Weaver & Poje, but as Canada's #3 team they were never going be given a medal in 2011 even if 5 teams fell.
I dont think anyone in this thread are hating on the Shibutanis. Were are just realistically evaluating what their chances are. Also presuming just because they won bronze in 2011 means they would under normal conditions or they are always capable of it is flawed thinking, and needs to be pointed out to those who use it, that is not hating.
it has happened, you can podium at the Olympics without wining Worlds or Euros, its not a prerequisite
so to say the Top 3 are locks for the same Top 3 in the Olympics, I doubt that.
like I said who would have thought this season the B/S and Shibutanis would regress
V/M will get to go to podium but I could see W/P as the biggest contenders by 2014. sure reputation plays a big role in getting high PCS
in ice dance but to have a successful transition to seniors, you don't need all those other competitions to win it just to earn a medal at the Olympics and I'm not even talking about debut that can equal P/B status right away, I'm talking about how fast the progress will be
2014 is 2 more years and anything can happen
there are no locks unless you're Patrick Chan or maybe not even him, lol
Last edited by sky_fly20; 04-16-2012 at 02:06 PM.
Mark my words, the main 4 teams battling for silver and bronze by 2014 will be Davis & White, Weaver & Poje, and whoever the #1 and #2 Russian teams are then. I look forward to bumping this thread come Sochi when that is the case. The Shibutanis wont be anywhere near a medal, and Pechalat & Bourzat will likely have been dumped by then.
Davis and White did medal at the Olympics before worlds. I did not mention that. In 2009 they were very close to medaling and were very high in TES the previous worlds. I do not think any Russian team is of that caliber. And even if they were none of the Russian teams is coached well like D/W. Coaching or choerography is lacking. Same thing with being technically inconsistent. But I really do not think any team but I/K or B/S will be the Russian team in Sochi. Starting all over with S/Z in 2013 I don't think is likely. So much has been invested in B/S.
Last edited by gmyers; 04-16-2012 at 02:42 PM.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v8KEvlQreWI
What went wrong? They looked so full of promise here in 2008.
Davis & White were only 6th at the 2008 Worlds, barely edging out P&B who they passed in the FD (they had been losing to P&B all season until then). They moved up a place by gold medal favorites Domnina & Shabalin's withdrawal. They were really only 7th or 8th in the World at that point. Then in 2009 they came 4th, but this time with the gold medal favorites Delobel & Schoenfelder withdrawing, so again moved up a spot in the placings and were really 5th in the World at that point. So if they moved up to silver by 2010, it is entirely possible for one of the current up and coming Russian teams or Weaver & Poje to do so as well.
As for Davis & White being so well coached, it will become a bigger challenge for Team Sphilband to keep creating great programs for everyone and keep everyone satisfied with so many top teams. I wouldnt some of their teams even leave before Sochi, except the ones considered the top ones (which at the moment seem to be V&M).
Weaver and Poje will win a medal at the olympics don`t ask me how they will do it, but they are building a huge following and becoming very popular i trust Camerlengo will give them great programs and Anjelika will continue working on their technique i don`t think they can catch virtue and Moir if they stay healthy(not even Anjelika thinks so she calls V&M one of the greatest teams of all time) But all the other teams including D&W are realistic targets and the eurosport commentators think so as well.
I think B/S are too old school to win a medal in Sochi. I doubt Russia will any medals in ice dance, I'm guessing it will be D.W, V/M, and W/P on the podium there. If a Russian team does manage to medal, it will be I/K or S/Z. B/S are getting dumped by the judges big time, a team like that won't win medals on the world stage anymore.
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