2013WC gold speculation; how does that set up the Sochi results?

2013 is the year that predicts it seems the Olympics. I wonder how often the reigning world champion got the OGM? Any good researchers/long memories/stats people here?

I expect Chan to repeat as WC next year barring major injury and take the gold. I think Chan is a virtual lock for Sochi unless Hanyu can catch up and ave a stellar season next year. He'll have to be perfect to beat a flawed Patrick on PCS unless there are rules changes coming about how jumps are scored, it sems to me. King Patrick

My gut tells me Elizaveta is going to rocket this year and there are others in Russia but I think she will do very well if she can get decent programs/packaging from Mishin. She seems done with her growth upwards. If weight does not creep up, I think she is the best Russian lady in a long time. I think she is a female Plushenko. Stars will align for her I predict. ( no I don't do astrology-just a saying). I think she has the technical content to gain strong results and I think she is a very interesting skater. She is nearly mature in presentation, almost like Tara and Sarah were at that age. And she is very confident-not a choker.

One question I have is what people feel about Asada. Could it be her mother's death took her heart away, and we will never see 2010 Mao again?

Pairs? Only V/T inspire me with their beautiful lines. I think V/T are special, and I prefer them to the current WC's so I can't be unbiased.

Ice dance 2013 Marlie take gold. But Voir beats them in Sochi.

Golden WCs Chan, Liza, Marlie, and V/T 2013

Starting with Men, how often has the WC become the OGM that year? Thanks for your knowledge GS people.

Three out of four latest oly champions were world champions in previous year. Dances/pairs usually had strong trend to become OC after WC. But I say that's the past now that absolutely amazing rivalries are at work.

I think the pattern is likely to be repeated at Sochi. Any underdogs, however, are delightful surprises more than often

Takahashi, Suzuki, Meryl and Charlie, V&T

christinaskater said:

Takahashi, Suzuki, Meryl and Charlie, V&T

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:thumbsup:

But I am sure, christinaskater, there will be 98,265 of naysayers with this one.
Better behave ourselves...so let me call it our 'wish list', rather than speculation. deedee is a good girl!

Obviously Lambiel was WC in 2005 but Plushenko withdrew so maybe that doesn't count. It was a steady march for Lysacek who didn't change one thing about the layout of the FS from worlds 2009 to feb 2010 in international competition. He hit upon an quad proof formula for success. Success in worlds and GP's and GPF and Olympics.

Mao in 2009 worlds was 4th but rebounded to be Kim's number 1 competitor by 4CC 2010. Maybe she was always kims number 1 competitor but that was not evidenced by her skates until Japanese nationals 2009-2010.

Obviously Domnina and Shabalin winning worlds in 2009 would mean nothing but maybe keep them in the mix for bronze. Last Russian ice dance medalists at the olympics until 2018 at the earliest!

Pairs was looking good for S/S but then S/Z came back with great praise and support unlike plushenko who came back with extreme negative criticism and opposition.

Worlds 2013 for Men Chan and Takahashi - just like 2012 all over. Hanyu can get the high point totals but so can Kozuka sometimes and Lysacek or Plushenko or Gachinski or someone else.

Ladies I'd just still go for Kostner. Leonova can be really good! Sotnikova is not steady like Tuktamisheva in LP's now. Have to mention Suzuki and Muramkami and maybe Asada and of course Miki Ando that whole group.

Pairs V/T S/S just like all of 2011-2012.

Dance VMDW Machine . Everyone looking for crumbs like P/B and W/P C/L and S/S.

skateluvr said:

2013 is the year that predicts it seems the Olympics. I wonder how often the reigning world champion got the OGM? Any good researchers/long memories/stats people here?

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In men´s competition no reigning WC has become an OC after 1984. The only exception is Evan Lysacek in 2010. But every US male reigning WC to compete at the Olympics has become an Olympic champion. Two different statistics....

I think next season will get so hot in Canton, we might see a split mid season or late season. Scott wants OGM 2 and Marlie really are fighting hard for OGM 1. I guess I hope Marlie win, but I think Voir have a huge chance of repeating.

I think Chan will take the men's title again next season, unless Takahashi can get it. There is also a chance of Plushenko taking it if he competes. I actually really enjoyed his Tango de Roxanne program and think it's more COP-friendly than his 2010 programs. I don't think anyone else really has a shot at this point. I don't see Hanyu at the top of the podium yet, but he can probably be a world champion after Sochi. Even if Lysacek and Weir come back, I don't see them winning the title although Lysacek could medal. I can see Joubert medalling but not winning either. Another dark horse is Kozuka, but I wouldn't predict a Worlds win for him since he's been struggling lately.
...Chan will set himself up as the main gold contender in Sochi, I think, with Plushenko, Takahashi, and maybe Lysacek (if he's back), Joubert, and Hanyu nipping at his heels. Hanyu's young, he had a great 2011-12, but it's hard to say what's going to happen when a competitor's that young. I hope he doesn't have a Gachinski-style meltdown.

In the ladies, I don't think the Russian wonder kids will make any major moves yet. I think the title will either go to Kostner or Suzuki. Tuktamysheva may sneak onto the podium, but she'll have to fight off Wagner, Leonova, and Asada. Asada is a wild card at this point. I hope she can get back into her best form by Sochi, but I really have no idea if she will. Ando will also be a wild card if she comes back since I have no idea what kind of form she's in, same with Rochette I guess. I think Kostner will set herself up as the main challenger for Olympic gold, even though I never thought I'd say that after 2010! These other ladies whom I've mentioned will also be contenders, although the ladies' field has seemed so unpredictable as of late, I wouldn't even begin to rank them #2, #3, etc. Suzuki, Wagner, and Leonova have so much competition in their home countries it's not even a given that they'll surely be at the Games.

In pairs, I think the world title will go to Savchenko/Szolkowy by a narrow margin again. It very well could go to V/T though, depending on how the two teams skate. This is of course going to be the epic battle in Sochi, between those two teams, with Kavaguti/Smirnov, Pang/Tong, Duhamel/Radford, Bazarova/Larionov and Takahashi/Tran fighting for the bronze medal. Moore-Towers/Moscovitch could also be thrown into the mix for bronze if they qualify for Canada's team, and Denney/Coughlin might become challengers for that medal too by 2014. There's also Sui/Han, but I really think their time is after Sochi. They could pull a Takahashi/Tran and get on the podium though (I say this because Takahashi/Tran's bronze was very surprising, at least to me).

Dance is of course going to be the usual showdown between D/W and V/M. I think V/M will probably take the world title in 2013 and then win gold again at the 2014 Olympics. It seems they just have a slight edge over D/W, usually. Weaver/Poje and Pechalat/Bourzat will fight for the bronze medal in 2013 and 2014. I don't think the Russian teams or the Shibutanis really stand a chance. There are Cappellini and Lanotte but they really aren't on the level of W/P or P/B either.

blue_idealist said:

...Chan will set himself up as the main gold contender in Sochi, I think, with Plushenko, Takahashi, and maybe Lysacek (if he's back), Joubert, and Hanyu nipping at his heels. Hanyu's young, he had a great 2011-12, but it's hard to say what's going to happen when a competitor's that young. I hope he doesn't have a Gachinski-style meltdown.

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I doubt that Joubert will be high up in Sochi as his results at the Olympics so far (14th, 6th and16th) are not very good. I would like Chan winning, but if he is the 2013 WC he will be fighting against the Canadian curse, LOL.

I don't think the podium in 2014 is going to shut out a North American lady, and I have a feeling it will be Wagner.

Well, they shut her out this year but I think if she has a great program, Wagner can podium. But gold medalist? I don't see why not except for little things like foot down when nevrvous. She is confident. I see Liza bowing in and winning GPFs like last year, but they ay be tougher on her this year since she is a year older and expectations rise.

Men: 3 way battle between Chan, Hanyu, and Takahashi. As much as I'm tempted to throw someone like Abbott into the mix, I just don't see it happening for him. Same goes for Lysacek, Weir, and any other potential comebacks (including Plushenko). The comeback skaters could maybe get on the podium, though, but idk how many are really "coming back". Brezina or Fernandez could maybe get bronze, but I don't see them contending for gold just yet, especially not Brezina who has crappy programs and still seems to have stamina issues. I don't think we'll see another youngster (Yan, Farris, Ten, etc) break out as a medal contender next season, and I don't expect Gatchinski to repeat his bronze he won in Moscow. Kozuka I think will bounce back but not enough to get to the podium unless he finds great consistency on his 4t.

Ladies: Julia is not old enough, Adelina seems to really struggle with puberty and pressure, Korobeynikova can be a nervous headcase, Shelepen is not strong in the PCS department, so I think the only Russian in contention will be Liza. She has a good chance to medal, but I'd be a little surprised if she won gold, though it certainly could happen. Then there is Leonova who can medal but I really don't see winning gold. Gracie has a good chance to make it to Worlds but I don't see her as a medal contender at this point, her skating would have to improve a lot for that to happen, same is true for Caroline. Ashley could medal, but is a long shot to win. I doubt Czisny will make it to Worlds, and if Mirai does, well, you never know with her, but even I good Mirai I don't see winning, maybe silver or bronze. Whichever 3 Japanese ladies are sent should factor into the medal mix but could also easily fall off the podium. Gold is probably Kostner's to lose. Europeans like Korpi and Gedevanishvilli could have an outside shot at medaling, but I don't think even that is very likely. So I'm going to say fighting for gold will be Kostner, Suzuki, Tuktamysheva, and maybe Wagner.

Pairs: Voloshar and Trankov. B/L and T/T have no shot at winning unless they improve their SBS jumps and consistency drastically. Savchenko and Szolokovy are the most likely challengers, but I think the tides have turned. Pang/Tong and Kavaguti/Smirnov are too old, recently they've become skary to watch, and the other Chinese teams are very young or new and likely need more time to contend for medals. Highly doubt any US pairs will be a factor.

Dance: Virtue/Moir vs. Davis/White AND I'm going to predict battle for bronze will be Weaver/Poje vs. Cappelini/Lanotte. P/B are overmarked and past their prime IMO. I/K, S/Z, S/S, etc. have promise but need more time to cook. They could get on the podium but one of the other teams would have to falter.

For men, I think that it will be Chan, Plushenko then Takahashi or Hanyu
For women, I think that it will be a fight between Kostner, Suzuki, Tuktamisheva and Mao. If Tuk gets her triple axel consistent, I think she'll have the competition in the bag.
For pairs, I think it will be SS, VT then PT as Pang and Tong are getting really high PCS even without competing very long
For dance, I think that Virtue and Moir will win with Davis and White getting silver and Weaver Poje getting bronze. I have this feeling that Bobrova and Soloviev may get fifth or even fourth if they actually do what they've promised to do (fix her posture and stop doing dramatic programs) so that they can get primed for a medal in Sochi.

Macassar88 said:

For men, I think that it will be Chan, Plushenko then Takahashi or Hanyu
For women, I think that it will be a fight between Kostner, Suzuki, Tuktamisheva and Mao. If Tuk gets her triple axel consistent, I think she'll have the competition in the bag.

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Men: Unlike most, I think Plushy has a good chance of finishing ahead of Chan. Plushy skates clean more often than not, and I just don't think they will place him behind Chan if Patrick falls. When a clean Evgeny has lost, it has typically been because another skater had the performance of their life and I think this will put more pressure on Chan to be clean. I'm excited to see how Patrick responds to the challenge! I agree with Mac that Dai and Hanyu are fighting for the bronze.
Women: Unfortunately I don't see Mao factoring in next year. She just doesn't do enough different triples well enough to accrue the points needed to win a LP. At this point I think Caro is the favorite, but I think Adelina and Liza will compete for the gold, while Akiko, Ashley, Miki, and Alena will round out the top 7 spots. Gracie is a wild card but is a skater who will get slammed on PCS if she isn't squeaky clean; however, I'm hopeful she can improve her artistry substantially over the summer since she does not need to upgrade her jump content at all.

Men: Takahashi, Chan, and Hanyu I think will be the main contenders, but I've learned not to count Plushy out as well. Of course I root for Takahashi, but I will feel no distress if Hanyu or Chan at his best ends up at the top. It will make for magnificent skating, and we will all be the beneficiaries, no matter whose fans we are. At this point, what I cross my fingers for is an all-out fine competition, so we can all feel we've just seen something we will tell our grandchildren about.
Women: I don't have a grasp of the Russian girls at all, so I'll just copy all of you and assume that Liza is the best possibility. Your arguments all sound convincing to me! Kostner is in there too. Of course I like to hope that Mao will be able to reach her goal of refurbishing her jumps (and I'm rooting for her first anyway). Ando is always a contender. I love the thought of Suzuki getting better and better, so I'll list her as well. Not so sure about Ashley. She's solid but not out of this world in the way that I think the top lady will have to be. Maybe we were spoiled by the 2008 to 2010 field, where the top two (Mao and YuNa) were in an entirely different realm from everyone else. Right now there's no one who's ahead of the field to that degree both technically and artistically.
Pairs: It certainly seems that S/S and V/T own the field. Whichever one is better on that particular day will probably get it, or at least so it seems now. Have you all noticed that it's harder to have a "dark horse" pair win than it is for a "surpris"e individual skater suddenly to make the top of the podium? Pairs champions don't tend to show up out of nowhere. (Please feel free to point out the error of my assumption, if there is one.) There isn't a North American or Chinese pair who seems to be at the level of the aforementioned two. The established Chinese pairs are either retiring or weakening. Canadians are not at their traditional peak in this discipline, and the U.S. hasn't got the knack of pairs just yet.
Ice dance: Again, the top two seem to be the top two. This is a great pleasure, because V/M and D/W are treasures of contemporary skating (and will be treasures of skating history one day). There is a kind of pairs drought right now, but the opposite is true in ice dance: the top is crowded with wonderful couples...but the very top two are on a higher plane than anyone else, it seems. I wish that such a situation existed with the ladies!

It's hard to predict this early! But I think that for the men in 2013, it will be between Patrick, Daisuke, and maybe Plushenko. Who else could it be? I think Kozuka and maybe Gachinski will make a comeback, but they won't be contenders. Yuzuru is definitely good, but he's not World Champion good (yet!!!). I'd like for the the champion to be Daisuke, but I think Patrick will end up taking the title, plus it's in Canada so he might have a little home country advantage. Patrick will probably win Olympic gold, too, or at least at this point it seems that way. I think he'll at least be the favorite heading into Sochi. But a lot can happen in two seasons; I'm kind of hoping for a surprise.

Pairs, I think that V/T will win in 2013. But this could also just be my wish, as I like them better than S/S. No one else seems to be in the league of those two teams. I think that V/T are continually improving, and they're my Olympic gold prediction.

Dance is obviously between Davis & White and Virtue & Moir again. Currently, there is no one that is close to them. I think Weaver & Poje are great, though, and they are my pick for bronze. I'm gonna say that V/M repeat as gold at the 2013 WC, but at the Olympics, I don't know, I'm going to say that D/W take Olympic gold.

Ladies I really have no idea. No one or two people have emerged as front runners. I don't really see Carolina repeating because she doesn't have some of the difficult jumps, but I don't know who else it would be. If Miki is there, she will probably be a contender. We'll have to see how Mao does in the GP because at the moment I have no idea what to expect from her. It's impressive that Akiko keeps improving at 27, but I'm not sure if she is a World Champion. There are all the young Russians, but for Liza or Adelina to win gold (more likely Liza) at her first WC would be quite a feat; they haven't competed on the senior level for very long at all. If Ashley keeps improving, she's got a shot, but she needs to build on what she did last year and not crumble under the pressure. So what I have is a lot of who I think are contenders for second and third, but no one jumps out at me as the favorite. The ladies is the toughest for me - I really don't know what to expect.

Jaana said:

I doubt that Joubert will be high up in Sochi as his results at the Olympics so far (14th, 6th and16th) are not very good. I would like Chan winning, but if he is the 2013 WC he will be fighting against the Canadian curse, LOL.

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Joubert just had some of his worst performances at the other Olympics. He's a world champion and has won multiple other world medals. If he performs up to his potential like he usually does at Worlds (I know 2011 was not), he could be on the podium.

skateluvr said:

I think next season will get so hot in Canton, we might see a split mid season or late season. Scott wants OGM 2 and Marlie really are fighting hard for OGM 1. I guess I hope Marlie win, but I think Voir have a huge chance of repeating.

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You could be right, especially since fans were talking about that at the end of last season. I can't see Davis and White leaving though, as they go to school in Michigan.

blue_idealist said:

Joubert just had some of his worst performances at the other Olympics. He's a world champion and has won multiple other world medals. If he performs up to his potential like he usually does at Worlds (I know 2011 was not), he could be on the podium.

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Yeah, and you really think it will be different for him in Sochi? My guess is that he will follow the pattern... Even if he would skate really well, his programmes have the habit of being not CoP friendly. I think that Joubert is a great guy and very good-looking, but skatewise his primetime might be over. At least his results seem to be out of podium lately:

gold 2007
silver 2008
bronze 2009
bronze 2010
8th 2011
4th 2012

I love watching sports in general.

I understand aiming for the Olympic Gold Medal and winning it, probably, is the biggest dream and the ultimate goal for every athletes who are engaged in any Olympic sports in the world. That is one thing.
Challenging oneself and trying to exceed the limit of his/her athletic ability is another thing.

At every competition at every sport, every athlete has his/her own goal when facing a competition; say, to swim 25m on his back for a 9-year swimmer, to go advance to the U.S. National for an American skater, or to play the final at the centre court at the Wimbledon for a professional tennis player.

Whenever I see athletes challenging oneselves, overcoming their weaknesses and/or fulfilling their own goals at competitions, I can't help but respect and admire them, regardless of their final placements. I love witnessing such moments in any sports, and that's why I'm so much attracted to watching sports, though I do not play any sports in parcicular myself.

Sports are merciless at the same time. There must be only one winner at one competition, in the strict sense of the word.

But if we talk about athletes achieving their own goals, there will be a lot of winners in their own ways at one competition.
It was to get back a quad after the torn ACL, almost career ending injury. for Daisuke. If it is to give another try at the Olympic Games for Brian, it is perfectly fine with me. Miki is probably coming back to competitive skating for the same reason. And Johnny, too.

Some of you may sing in a loud chorus, "oh, they are past their prime.". I will just root for Brian, Miki, Johnny or anyone.