VERY Early Predictions

[DianaSelene]

Since it is summer and skating news are scarce, I thought we could start predictions for the upcoming grand prix season. I am aware that the grand prix assignments are not final yet, but why not start now? Any ideas who will dominate the gp and who will falter?

[DianaSelene]

Since no one has begun, I will. Here are my picks for ladies.

Skate America

1. Ashley Wagner
2. Alena Leonova
3. Adelina Sotnikova
4. Viktoria Helgesson


Skate Canada

1. Akiko Suzuki
2. Elizaveta Tuktamisheva
3. Gracie Gold
4. Kanako Murakami

Cup of China

1. Carolina Kostner
2. Mao Asada
3. Julia Lipnitskaia
4. Miki Ando

Rostelecom Cup

1. Adelina Sotnikova
2. Alena Leonova
3. Gracie Gold
4. Kananko Murakami

TEB

1. Carolina Kostner
2. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
3. Ashley Wagner
4. Miki Ando

NHK Trophy

1. Akiko Suzuki
2. Mao Asada
3. Alissa Czisny
4. Ksenia Makarova

[macy]

that's about how i'd line it up. i don't have the entries in front of me but going off your predictions mine would be about the same. i would say that if miki comes back strong she may beat julia at CoC and ashley has the potential to beat liza at TEB, now that she has shown the judges what she can really do. i hope mao comes back with two breathtaking programs this season and blows everyone away. i wish the same for alissa and miki. i pray to God alissa can recover quickly and come back in time for NHK with two beautiful programs and the mental toughness/calmness she had about her in 2010-2011 and that ashley has at least one program that is up to the standard of or passes what her black swan was...that's gonna be hard to do. i don't want her to be a one-season wonder. lets see if caro and akiko can maintain their consistency from last season.

[Macassar88]

I'll do some Dance predictions (Much easier to predict):
Skate America: DW, WP, BS
Skate Canada: VM, CL, GP (or RT)
Cup of China: WP, PB, BS
Cup of Russia: VM, IK, Shibs
Trophee Bompard: PB, CL, GP (or RT)
NHK: DW, IK, Shibs

It's kind of annoying how every GP looks so similar. I'd rather have more different matchups.

Pairs:
Skate America: VT, PT, DC
Skate Canada: SS, DR, BH
CoC: PT, KS, SH
CoR: VT, BL, DC
TEB: SS, KS, PZ
NHK: SH, BL, TT

[AlexRus]

DianaSelene, you underestimate Julia Lipnitskaia.
From 2007/08 to now her progress from season to season is very good.
At 2011/12 she was best in Russia with results better than Sotnikova's & Tuktamysheva's in their best 2010/2011 (2011/2012 wasn't so good for them).
Only comparable skater at 2011/12 in the world was Carolina Kostner (TES better Julia, PCS better Carolina, total comparable).
At 2011/12 Julia was better at end of season than at beginning.

So I predict that your prediction may be slightly wrong.

[DianaSelene]

DianaSelene, you underestimate Julia Lipnitskaia.
From 2007/08 to now her progress from season to season is very good.
At 2011/12 she was best in Russia with results better than Sotnikova's & Tuktamysheva's in their best 2010/2011 (2011/2012 wasn't so good for them).
Only comparable skater at 2011/12 in the world was Carolina Kostner (TES better Julia, PCS better Carolina, total comparable).
At 2011/12 Julia was better at end of season than at beginning.

So I predict that your prediction may be slightly wrong.

No, I do not underestimate her. I am one of Julia's biggest fans and absolutely love her. Her consistency last year was amazing and she looked beautiful. The reason I did not put her higher than 3rd is because as much as I want her to win everything, I don't know how she will do coming out from juniors. Everyone else has had international senior experience. However, I will be very happy if she scores higher and goes to the grand prix final.

[AlexRus]

No, I do not underestimate her. I am one of Julia's biggest fans and absolutely love her. Her consistency last year was amazing and she looked beautiful. The reason I did not put her higher than 3rd is because as much as I want her to win everything, I don't know how she will do coming out from juniors. Everyone else has had international senior experience. However, I will be very happy if she scores higher and goes to the grand prix final.

Senior competitions aren't a big problem for Russian girls. Best of them participate in Russian Senior Nationals from 12 years old and take good places.
Julia was 4th in Senior Nationals at December 2010 and 2nd (after Sotnikova) at December 2011 (difference in score between 1 and 2(Julia's) places 2.06 and between 2(Julia's) and 3 places 13.50).

We all know that Tuktamysheva had two 1st places at her first two GP events. Winning Suzuki, Wagner, Leonova, Nagasu in Skate Canada and Kostner, Czisny, Murakami in TEB. Her 4th place in GP Final is because she was not so good in second half of season (problems of growing, may be).

Sotnikova's problems in her GP Events 2011/12 were part of her problems 2011/12 (it was not very good season for her at all, for example, she was 3rd in WJC-2012 after first in WJC-2011, with lower than in 2011 score).

So if Julia will be at good state, we can wait good results.

[DianaSelene]

Senior competitions aren't a big problem for Russian girls. Best of them participate in Russian Senior Nationals from 12 years old and take good places.
Julia was 4th in Senior Nationals at December 2010 and 2nd (after Sotnikova) at December 2011 (difference in score between 1 and 2(Julia's) places 2.06 and between 2(Julia's) and 3 places 13.50).

We all know that Tuktamysheva had two 1st places at her first two GP events. Winning Suzuki, Wagner, Leonova, Nagasu in Skate Canada and Kostner, Czisny, Murakami in TEB. Her 4th place in GP Final is because she was not so good in second half of season (problems of growing, may be).

Sotnikova's problems in her GP Events 2011/12 were part of her problems 2011/12 (it was not very good season for her at all, for example, she was 3rd in WJC-2012 after first in WJC-2011, with lower than in 2011 score).

So if Julia will be at good state, we can wait good results.

So far the Russian girls do look great at international competitions. I just do not want to jinx them by overhyping and predicting that Lipnitskaya will win all the competitions. It's better to say less and hope that they will do well. There have been too many times when an overhyped skater did not do as well as people thought he/she would. Since I would like Tukt, Sot, Julia, Korobeynikova, and Shelepen to do well, I will keep my expectations low in my predictions while keeping my fingers crossed for them.

[ImaginaryPogue]

Focusing on the men

Skate America: Could go to Verner, Brezina, Abbott, Hanyu or Kozuka, depending on who shows up to play. I think it'll be Brezina and Kozuka in the top two spots, with Abbott in third. Hanyu probably won't have adjusted to his training entirely (yet) and he'll peak later in the season.

Skate Canada: Chan in a walk, but the silver medal will be interesting. Does Fernandez match last season (I wonder if training with Hanyu will be beneficial to him)? Where's Gachisnky at? How about Amodio or Oda? I think Miner is a darkhorse here, but he's the only one of this group that hasn't landed a quad in international competition.

Cup of China: Brian and Dai. Brian wants two things: a Cup of China victory and a strong Olympics in 2014. I think he'll get both. Dai's the better bet, of course. More talented. More recent success. With the confidence Morosov instills and his work ethic, I probably should predict him. And I might still, but my gut says Brian. Song vs Rippon for the bronze and Song has the jump advantage here.

Cup of Russia: Chan or Plushenko, should the latter show up. Bronze (and silver, should he not) to Kozuka. I think Wier will show up, but doubt he'll be at the top of the heap.

TEB: Abbott, Amodio and Joubert. Don't know which order, though.

NHK: Dai squeaking past Hanyu, Fernandez in third. The American men should be fascinating here.

[AlexRus]

It's better to say less and hope that they will do well. There have been too many times when an overhyped skater did not do as well as people thought he/she would.

So I newer predict results.
I write about facts of past, not about future.

[Irishflip]

For me in the ladies competition it would be:

Skate America

1. Ashley Wagner
2. Adelina Sotnikova
3. Alena Leonova
4. Christina Gao

Skate Canada

1. Akiko Suzuki
2. Elizaveta Tuktamisheva
3. Caroline Zhang
4. Gracie Gold

Cup of China

1. Julia Lipnitskaia
2. Mao Asada
3. Mirai Nagasu
4. Zhang Kexin

Rostelecom Cup

1. Adelina Sotnikova
2. Caroline Zhang
3. Gracie Gold
4. Alena Leonova

TEB

1. Elizaveta Tuktamisheva
2. Ashley Wagner
3. Julia Lipnitskaia
4. Polina Korobeynikova

NHK

1. Akiko Suzuki
2. Mao Asada
3. Li Zijun
4. Elene Gedevanishvili

[AlexRus]

Irishflip, at Cup of China Kostner is substituted by Korpi. She won't take place at TEB also, who will be a substitute at TEB - Zijun Li from China.

See http://isu.sportcentric.net/db//files/serve.php?id=3654

Correctly - Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA (she is called so at ISU site).

[Irishflip]

Irishflip, at Cup of China Kostner is substituted by Korpi. She won't take place at TEB also, who will be a substitute at TEB - Zijun Li from China.

See http://isu.sportcentric.net/db//files/serve.php?id=3654

Thank you for this information, I was totally unaware of that hmmm doesn't it sound like Carolina's going the same route as Miki?

Correctly - Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA (she is called so at ISU site).

I was spelling it the way she spells it on her facebook account as I assumed she would understand how to spell her name

[AlexRus]

"Correctly - Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA (she is called so at ISU site)."

I was spelling it the way she spells it on her facebook account as I assumed she would understand how to spell her name

May be. I wrote her name as it is written in official figure skating documents.

[AlexRus]

Thank you for this information, I was totally unaware of that hmmm doesn't it sound like Carolina's going the same route as Miki?

Last info from Carolina's manager is that she only at July 2012 solved not to leave skating and so will not have a good state for GP. She decided to take place in Italian National (December 2012), Euro and Worlds.