Who will rise and who will fall in 2012-13?

**SkateFiguring** · 07-16-2012, 03:06 PM

Originally Posted by emdee

And do you see Patrick winning Sochi Gold too?

**pangtongfan** · 07-16-2012, 03:13 PM

Originally Posted by emdee

Skatefiguring,
Dont agree on the dance at all. Post Olympics D&W had their rise when V&M were MIA due to surgery. They may have not won the WCh last year but it did not constitute a fall. They will have to provide innovation to continue to rise if not they will fall as they have W&P at their heels.
V&M on the other hand had the small fall last year in GPF but with continuing good health I think they will surge until Sochi.

Honestly I see a 1-2 finish in dance for Canada come Worlds. Virtue & Moir gold and Weaver & Poje silver. I think Davis & White have already peaked and with Worlds being in Canada and the Olympics being in Russia next year it sets things up perfectly for TPTB to start pushing other teams over them. I could see them off the podium in Sochi but they will gain a record breaking 6th U.S title that year as consolation.

**macy** · 07-16-2012, 03:28 PM

rises- ashley, caroline, the russian babies, mao, kanako, gold obviously.

falls- czisny

, kostner, suzuki (i feel as if both peaked last year), maybe leonova too, i really don't know with her. i don't think miki will make a strong comeback.

i hope that yuna trains hard and comes back in top form, if she does the russian babies don't stand a chance. i also hope that if rachael chooses to keep competing, her college schedule will be less demanding (maybe taking less credits) and comes back strong.

**emdee** · 07-16-2012, 03:30 PM

Honestly I see a 1-2 finish in dance for Canada come Worlds. Virtue & Moir gold and Weaver & Poje silver. I think Davis & White have already peaked and with Worlds being in Canada and the Olympics being in Russia next year it sets things up perfectly for TPTB to start pushing other teams over them. I could see them off the podium in Sochi but they will gain a record breaking 6th U.S title that year as consolation.

I hope so Ptfan.
I will be going to worlds - first time and likely only time - so it would a wonderful finish for me!

**Bluebonnet** · 07-16-2012, 03:54 PM

Originally Posted by pangtongfan

I think we will see a slight changing of the gaurd in ice dance. Virtue & Moir will remain #1 and probably go undefeated this season. However Davis & White will lose more ground to Virtue & Moir, losing the GP final for the first time, and will see themselves challenged more closely, and perhaps even bumped down from #2 at Worlds. Weaver & Poje on home ice and with their improvement of late are a lock for a World medal this year if they dont screw it up IMO, either silver or bronze. Pechalat & Bourzat will be dumped, dropping to 5th or 6th. They have their World medal, the powers that be will probably decide time to bring others especialy the Russians into conention with Sochi looming (not the Shibutanis who will stay outside the top 7 IMO).

Onto ladies this could be a crazy season. The Russian babies will make their presence known, I should have included them in the rising group. I think only Sotnikova is age eligible for Worlds though. Wagner will continue her rise and win a World medal IMO. If Kim shows up at Worlds ready I think she will regain her World title, while a revived Mao will be back on the podium or atleast closer to it. The podium of last year will slide backwards, their level isnt that high really, the level of skating in the ladies event was just really low the last 2 years. As for Ando her comeback will be a major flop and aborted before Sochi.

Onto the men I could see things staying the same, or potentially Takahashi and Hanyu really challenging, maybe even overtaking Chan. This season will be alot closer than the Chan coronations of the last 2 seasons, and the criticsm of Chanflation I think is starting to be felt by the judges too and we will finally see some more fair judging again. For the first time in years Chan will have to earn his wins on the ice. In any case I see those remaining the top 3. Fernandez could continue to rise to the level of podium contender though. I didnt mention Joubert but I dont see him mantaining his Nice high, so he is another who will slide backwards IMO. Will be interesting if Plushenko shows up at Worlds, he could contend for a medal if he does, but highly unlikely to get the gold. Abbott will remain #1 in the U.S and might finally get some of the consistency to challenge for a world medal, we will see, it is now or never for him.

Pairs I definitely see Voloszhar & Trankov passing the Germans by for good this season. I dont see Takahashi & Tran being able to mantain being #3 in the World, and I see Sui & Han really dropping down and possibly missing the Chinese World team altogether. I dont see any Chinese pairs in serious contender, and the bronze at Worlds will go to either another Russian pair or Duhamel & Radford.

All reasonable. But the reason that Chan will not be that dominate like last two seasons is because he is willing to lose this time. He is using this season to experiment new choreographers and artistic perspect of skating. Winning and losing will not be his top priority this coming season. So this season might be Takahashi and Hanyu's best opportunity to sneak in and grab some gold medals. In the Olympic season, it's going to be another story.

**Skater Boy** · 07-16-2012, 03:54 PM

Kudos to the folks who actually will call the falls because not everyone can rise. I fear VM will be in trouble. Look what happend at the World Team Championships - they crumbled. Unlike Boitano after he beat Orser he constantly beat Orcer; we haven't seen that from Virtue and Moir. I do believe Tsquared will fall down the list as Pang and Tong, two Russian teams, Sui and Han all looked poised to pass. On a bad day they could easily be out of the top ten. We saw how K and S fell out of the top ten in the short last year well T and T look far more vulenrable - they could be beaten by three Russians, two Canadians, two Americans, Italy, Germany and two to three Chinese teams.

**Bluebonnet** · 07-16-2012, 04:03 PM

I think Abbott's best opportunity was last season. It was gone. He could remain No.1 in US. But that was it.

**SkateFiguring** · 07-16-2012, 04:09 PM

Originally Posted by Skater Boy

Kudos to the folks who actually will call the falls because not everyone can rise. I fear VM will be in trouble. Look what happend at the World Team Championships - they crumbled.

I wouldn't say they crumbled. None of the World Champions won individually in this Team event. They had focused on the World Championships and achieved their goals. There was then a de-stressing and a let down of the energy and focus and re-gearing up for this event. But such short term focusing of mental energy was not enough against those whose season had not ended at Worlds but were looking for redemption opportunities at the Team event.

I do believe Tsquared will fall down the list as Pang and Tong, two Russian teams, Sui and Han all looked poised to pass. On a bad day they could easily be out of the top ten. We saw how K and S fell out of the top ten in the short last year well T and T look far more vulenrable - they could be beaten by three Russians, two Canadians, two Americans, Italy, Germany and two to three Chinese teams.

Stars aligned for T/T on that occasion but they were and are not ready technically and mentally, for the position they found themselves in. They didn't believe it and still don't believe enough in themselves. Their falls and errors have become habits.

**seniorita** · 07-16-2012, 04:14 PM

How do you see stuff??

Oh I miss Ant and his crystal ball before Vancouver

**emdee** · 07-16-2012, 04:16 PM

I wouldn't say they crumbled. None of the World Champions won individually in this Team event. They had focused on the World Championships and achieved their goals. There was then a de-stressing and a let down of the energy and focus and re-gearing up for this event. But such short term focusing of mental energy was not enough against those whose season had not ended at Worlds but were looking for redemption opportunities at the Team event.

My thoughts exactly. Besides V&M had a very busy off season last year and started the season earlier with Finlandia.

**slipslidin** · 07-16-2012, 04:23 PM

In ice dance, it's hard for me to know which way things are trending. I suspect Davis and White may have peaked, but if they continue to work hard, and get more terrific programs, it could be a plateau that can last several years. For Virtue and Moir, I just have to wait and see. I questioned their choice of progam, and the way they commited to it, huge investment in fluff pieces, photo shoot, even the hair-cut and eyebrow plucking. To top it off, their previous impeccable choice of costumes seemed to have failed them. I would like to see them continue to rise to another Olympic gold, and I know, I know, they won Worlds, but I would surely not like to see them have another season like the last one.

Weaver and Poje will continue to rise. I expect to see Bobrova and Soloviev and Riazanova and Tkachenko move up, and I&K to drop. I think Hubbell and Donohue will overtake the Shibutani's, and Capellini and Lanotte will rise.

Patrick Chan may regret giving up his technical coach.

Canadian ladies may have bottomed out and begin a long, slow climb.

For pairs, I throw up my hands, and simply hope Ingo can come up with another wonderful program and Narumi can land her jumps.

For the returners, I shrug and wish them luck. Not sure you can jump in and out of the game.

**SkateFiguring** · 07-16-2012, 04:58 PM

Originally Posted by slipslidin

Weaver and Poje will continue to rise. I expect to see Bobrova and Soloviev and Riazanova and Tkachenko move up, and I&K to drop. I think Hubbell and Donohue will overtake the Shibutani's, and Capellini and Lanotte will rise.

I see W/P surging, even ahead of V/M temporarily. The Shibs should be next quadrennium's stars.

Patrick Chan may regret giving up his technical coach.

It was not his decision but he is good at turning obstacles into stepping stones.

Canadian ladies may have bottomed out and begin a long, slow climb.

I think Cynthia will redeem herself and retire without a Worlds medal. She may even earn two Olympic spots for Canadian Ladies. Osmond will take over and get on the Worlds podium maybe in three years.

For the returners, I shrug and wish them luck. Not sure you can jump in and out of the game.

Yuna may surprise you.

**l'etoile** · 07-16-2012, 05:08 PM

Hanyu, Liza, Adelina may begin to kick some serious a-s-s:D

I'm not sure how Yuna will do in her first competition of the season, though while I'm certain that she'll pull of as season passes. She usually starts extremely strong, well prepared, but this is a new time and chance for her.