Who will rise and who will fall in 2012-13?

[doctor2014]

I root for Oda and Schultheiss, both injured last season. I hope they haven't peaked yet. None of them has a GP spot though, right? Could be they don't qualify for world's either. Lots of B competitions for them then, preparing for the Olympics.

Oda has 2 GP spots: SC and CoR. I heard he’s in a good form, and I’m looking forward to his comeback. Schultheiss doesn’t have a GP spot. I miss him whenever I watch Majorov skating.

This money thing goes both ways. MOst of Han Yan's earnings, including prize money, goes directly to the Chinese federation. The Japanese Skating Federation operates under the same system.

I don’t know about the Chinese federation, but the JSF is not as generous as you may think. It doesn’t cover all the expenses of every junior champion, and not even some world famous senior skaters. Suzuki’s funding was cut immediately after her less-than-stellar 2010-2011 season, even though she was already pretty famous and popular back then.

And Hanyu received very limited funding from the JSF after he won the WJC gold medal in 2010 and even after he won the 4CC silver medal in 2011. He could only afford to go to Russia twice to receive training and choreography from Bestemianova & Bobrin this past season—about 2-3 weeks in summer and 2 weeks in winter. And he stayed in a very small basement room so short and narrow that it was a bit difficult for him to stretch out his legs. He would like to train abroad more, but he’s not from a wealthy family, so he had no choice. His funding was increased only after he podiumed at the senior worlds, so finally he has this chance to challenge abroad. The JSF is somewhat similar to the USFS, and skaters need to earn certain level of financial support by demonstrating how successful they are. Japan has strict standard for evaluating how successful skaters are, and sometimes one would need to even podium at worlds to get recognition.

I don't think this "No going back to junior" rule will be applied to 2012-2013 season.

I think ImaginaryPogue might have meant that when federations considered whether to send Farris and Yan to senior GP or to JGP in May, they could not foresee that the rule would not come into effect in June. There was hot discussion about the Denis Ten rule in May, and many people thought it would come into effect immediately. Federations did not want to take the risk.

If there were no hot discussion about the Denis Ten rule, then Farris and Yan could repeat what Rippon did in 2008-2009—he skated senior on the GP circuit, and when he didn’t do well at Nationals, he went back to JWC. Problems could arise when GP lists had to be submitted before the ISU Congress, and Farris and Yan became unfortunate sufferers.

TBH, I prefer watching Farris, Yan, and Schultheiss skating on the senior GP circuit. I think they’re more interesting to watch than Majorov and Voronov, both of whom have 2 GP spots.

[eyria]

Rising skaters (in my view)

MEN

Ross Miner. Among the least heralded senior men, despite an increasingly impressive competitive record. I feel there's a lot of upside to Ross's skating. His best attribute is undoubtedly his steadiness and consistency; however, he is showing an increasing ability to connect with audiences. I'd like to see him on the World team this year; I think he has a real shot at making it.

Denis Ten. I think he's a little underrated. When you look at his skating, he really has all the elements--speed, great jumps, crisp positions. There's a ton of potential there, and it started to come out last season. His marks indicate the judges are prepared to give him good PCS once the technical elements are there. A good sign for him.

Jason Brown. Oh my goodness, seeing him for the first time at Nationals this year . . . he took my breath away. The talent he has can't be ignored. I'm hoping/expecting to see true greatness from him over the next 6 years. I say 6 because he's obviously not going to be a factor in Sochi; almost certainly won't even make the team. But 2018 will hopefully be the right timeframe for him.


LADIES

The ladies field is always so exhaustively discussed that there's not much more to add. However, I will mention one skater:

Kexin Zhang. I think she could surprise us over the next 6 years. What I find interesting is she's already quite solid and consistent technically--which not many ladies are right now--plus she seems to be a strong competitor. And her basic line and positions are not terrible by any means. She just needs better packaging and more time to develop artistically. Because she's Chinese, she will get that time and support. The Chinese federation expects its athletes to have long careers, so I have little doubt they will continue to support and encourage Zhang's training. A key question might be if they will allow her to train abroad for a while. I think this would benefit her.


DANCE

Weaver/Poje. They just continue to improve substantially year by year. I would not be surprised to see them on the podium at Worlds this year.

Cappellini/Lanotte. This past season was a big statement for them. Honestly, I thought they were out of it after the post-Olympic season, but they certainly came back strong last year. The decision to train part-time with Shpilband is an excellent indicator that they mean to build on this success, rather than sitting still. If their programs this year are good, I could see them start to challenge for the top spot at Europeans.


PAIRS

Yu/Jin. We all know the top senior pairs, but of the more up-and-coming junior pairs, this team has impressed me the most. Their technical ability and pairs quality seem promising, although they obviously have a long way to go to develop. A bit worrisome that they didn't get any senior GP assignments this year. Hopefully this doesn't signal problems in their training.

[treeloving]

Hanyu is injured?? What happened?

He injured his right knee since world and it's still in recovering process, hopefully it will be fine before the season start.


I don't understand why Lakeside try to connected the fact that Han Yan got financial support from Chinese fed, get free training and has luxury item with whether he should complete in Sr gran Prix or not.

I don't understand the logic here.

Even if he is richest men in the world, if he deserve to compete in Senior then he deserve it.

[Serious Business]

He injured his right knee since world and it's still in recovering process, hopefully it will be fine before the season start.

When Yuzuru performed at Dreams on Ice in June, he had no trouble firing off his most difficult jumps, including a quad toe during his intro. Of course, that doesn't mean everything is fine. He could still be injured and be in pain. He could be exerting himself more than he should. But, more likely, it could mean he's going to be fine.

On the other hand, Patrick Chan was the one who looked pretty out of it jump-wise at DOI. He had trouble doing anything more difficult than a 3toe. But I wouldn't worry too much. It's just a show, and he has months to work out whatever problems he has (if he actually has any) before the major competitions.

[yousunny]

I think ImaginaryPogue might have meant that when federations considered whether to send Farris and Yan to senior GP or to JGP in May, they could not foresee that the rule would not come into effect in June. There was hot discussion about the Denis Ten rule in May, and many people thought it would come into effect immediately. Federations did not want to take the risk.

Maybe it's risky.

But actually China already has two very decent junior men skaters besides Yan. He Zhang ranked 6th in his first Junior world. Boyang Jin ranked only behind Yan and Song in National Winter Game. They can secure the JGP spots next season, although Chinese federation never use them up.

Different from juniors, China doesn't have a deep field in senior man's skating. Song and Yan are the only two whose personal best are above 202. The possible third skater in Cup of China has a PB of 170.

If Yan cannot go to senior world, he doesn't have to go back to JW. He can get points in 4CC which worths more.

[snowflake]

Oda has 2 GP spots: SC and CoR. I heard he’s in a good form, and I’m looking forward to his comeback. Schultheiss doesn’t have a GP spot.

Thanks. I'm glad for Oda I've given up to try understanding who gets the spots

TBH, I prefer watching Farris, Yan, and Schultheiss skating on the senior GP circuit. I think they’re more interesting to watch than Majorov and Voronov, both of whom have 2 GP spots.

I looked at the GP list from July 16. Alexandra Majorov has one spot(Skate America).

[noskates]

eyria - thank you for mentioning Jason Brown. I have several times and no one picked up on it. He is truly amazing at his age. I wouldn't completely count him out for Sochi. That's 2 seasons from now. He's been with Kori Ade since he started skating (I think!) and I hope that his choreography becomes a little more mature this year. I really don't know much about Rohene Ward! He's very athletic but graceful on the ice and he really connects with the crowd. There was literally a humming in the audience before he skated at Nats this year. I'm less enthralled with Ross Miner. He has the technical ability but he just doesn't seem all that interesting to watch. But again, there are still two seasons until Sochi.

[l'etoile]

What do you guys think of Canadian ladies? Will Amelie, Cynthia, Kaitlyn, and Alexandra rise against all odds?

[chuckm]

Put a fork in Cynthia---she is done. Amelie is unlikely to improve as she really has only the loop as a reliable jump. Alexandra Najarro is too inconsistent amd she is just as capable of bombing as she is of skating decently. Kaetlyn Osmond appears to be the best hope, but as she hasn't skated in senior competition internationally as yet, it's hard to say how she shapes up.

[doctor2014]

Maybe it's risky.

But actually China already has two very decent junior men skaters besides Yan. He Zhang ranked 6th in his first Junior world. Boyang Jin ranked only behind Yan and Song in National Winter Game. They can secure the JGP spots next season, although Chinese federation never use them up.

Different from juniors, China doesn't have a deep field in senior man's skating. Song and Yan are the only two whose personal best are above 200. The possible third skater in Cup of China has a PB of 170.

If Yan cannot go to senior world, he doesn't have to go back to JW. He can get points in 4CC which worths more.

My point is Yan's performance is very close to Song if not better. And if Yan competes in senior GPs this season, he would have similar chance to medal as Song does. But if Yan competes in JGP, he would have 90 percent chance to get three more junior golds for Chinese federation. I can understand Chinese fed.'s decision to let Yan stays junior, but cannot agree. According to Chinese fed.'s reaction to Song's GP medals, senior medal obviously weighs more than junior gold, but they just don't want to take any risk.

I checked your earlier post. You explained the Chinese federation’s reasoning very well. Now I understand that it likes to have as many junior gold medals as possible. It thought that He Zhang and Boyan Jin would not have a big chance to podium at JGPF and JWC, combined with the risk that if Han Yan moved up to senior GP then he would not be able to go back to JGPF/JWC, so the Chinese federation did not take the risk and did not submit Yan’s name in May.

Maybe the Chinese federation thinks preservation of JGP spots is not as important as winning the junior gold medals, but most other federations such as USFS likes to secure as many JGP spots as possible. Thus, I think the USFS wants Farris and Jason to secure JGP spots as well as to win junior golds.

And I actually haven’t heard of Boyang Jin before. Thanks for the info.

Thanks. I'm glad for Oda I've given up to try understanding who gets the spots

I looked at the GP list from July 16. Alexandra Majorov has one spot(Skate America).

Oops, my bad! Majorov only has 1 spot, and they misspelled his name… You’re actually very good at checking who gets what spots. Thanks for pointing this out. And I’m glad for Oda, too.

[SkateFiguring]

And I actually haven’t heard of Boyang Jin before. Thanks for the info.

http://www.goldenskate.com/2011/08/n...-asian-trophy/

http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sho...878-Jin-Boyang

[deedee1]

He Zhang ranked 6th in his first Junior world.

He Zhang is so adorable, isn't he?
Wish him a podium finish at the next Jr. Worlds!

[Macassar88]

I think that Bobrova and Soloviev will have their stock rise because of the move. I don't know if they will make the GPF, but I can see them defending their Euros silver and getting a top 5 finish at worlds setting them up nicely for better GP's next year and possibly a podium finish in the Olympics.

[silverlake22]

From Joshua Farris' site:



I've read this same paragraph for at least two years and I'm guessing his training costs may have gone up. And he is still a Junior. But he probably saves on his costs because he trains in his hometown.

As I posted earlier, I envision much success for Joshua, both nationally and internationally.

Josh is actually from the Seattle area originally and moved to Colorado to train at the World Arena in his early teens to train with Tom Z after winning his first US title as a juvenile IIRC. So Colorado Springs isn't technically his "hometown", and his dad still lives in Texas, so I'm pretty sure his living in CS is largely to accommodate his skating.

I agree about the success and feel like whether Ross Miner will rise in the ranks or not will have a lot to do with how some of the younger guys develop in the coming years. Josh is a beautiful skater with a solid 3a and is working toward putting the 4t in his programs, Keegan and Max need a lot of polishing but have explosive jumps including quads and quad combos, Jason Brown is very talented and has started going for the 3a in competition, Nathan Chen is really young and really small but already has the 3a so in a few years who knows, and even some of the upcoming juniors show promise like Philip Warren who is very animated and just needs more tech to contend. Then there are the guys his own age, Armin seems to be skating really well recently and his 4t looks rock solid, Ricky Dornbush could bounce back and also has the 4t and good showmanship, and while I think Rippon is probably on his way out, you never know if he could pull out an overhaul and reemerge really strong.

Ross is a solid, consistent skater, but I personally think a lot of skaters can potentially be better, and among the top of this list are Josh Farris and Jason Brown. 2018 is most likely their time, but 2014 is not out of the realms of possibility by any means, especially for Josh where he has the 3a and has tried the 4t in competition before and posted that big number at JW last year. And then Jason is just so unique and racks up points on everything so even with just a solid 3a and no quad, could still be a threat IMO. Josh is really beautiful and I feel his skating is pretty universally appealing (clean lines, pure jump technique, he's masculine and good looking in a clean cut way, and his skating has nice classical style). Brown is more edgy and Weir-ish but most people seem to like that!

[Skater Boy]

I wonder if P and B can feel the pressure of the up and coming Canadians, Americans, Italians and Russians. Do they read these posts? Can they see the writing on the all or sense that the tide is turning or are a lot of us just plain wrong. I can't explain it but not that P and B are bad ice dancers I just since they are perfect for being knocked off the podium and if they aren't careful they could slip behind another American or two and a Canadian team. C and L could pass them and you never know about B and S or I and K from Russia they are both capable of moving past the French. this is a team that I might have been okay with retiring on top. I hope they don't end up like that German dance team or Israeli team - again winning that bronze could be the kiss of death..