Who will rise and who will fall in 2012-13?

noidont said:

Rules are there to be broken. Shen and Zhao certainly didn't start dating as late as they claimed. And Han Yan definitely dates around lol. For some reason Chinese narratives tend to be over dramatic about making sacrifice. It's satisfying to some people.

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I don't know if Shen and Zhao were forbidden to date but they had been yelled at by their coach to hold hands and to live and die together since the beginning of their partnership. I guess they listened.

To Lakeside though, for what reason do you assume the Chinese taxpayers are unwilling to pay for Han Yan's training costs? I'm guessing we just don't know. Actually, maybe the US taxpayers wouldn't so much object to paying for Josh Farris as well. Maybe the problem lies with the U.S. system's inability to fund their top skaters properly, which is definitely not Han Yan's fault...

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I assume US taxpayers have a lot to disagree with on how their money is spent.

I think Josh Farris has great potential. I also happen to think Jason Brown's so called artistry is overrated. Han Yan however has something special - fantastic skating skill COP likes. I'm not even that much of a fan of his skating. Just stating a fact.

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I mostly agree with you here. Though Han Yan seems to have childish streaks off ice sometimes, he has that champion vibes on ice that Brown and even Hanyu lack, as talented as they are. It's the kind of champion vibes Yagudin, Plushenko, Joubert, Chan, et al, have plenty of. Yan's skating is very mature for his age, with fabulous skills. He just needs some seasoning, in choreography and in experience.

I see Farris as the most promising and soon to be most successful next generation US male skater, able to win some major medals.

noidont said:

Rules are there to be broken. Shen and Zhao certainly didn't start dating as late as they claimed. And Han Yan definitely dates around lol. For some reason Chinese narratives tend to be over dramatic about making sacrifice. It's satisfying to some people.

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Several thoughts on this: It's not satisfaction, I think, but a narrative meant to encourage obedience. As in, looky here, average citizen, your heroes got where they are by obeying the authorities and giving up personal freedom!

At the same time, though, just because people surreptitiously break rules doesn't mean the rules and control in Chinese sports programs aren't a lot stricter than what most people anywhere, in any situation would be used to. Just as kids may sneak around a Catholic school but it doesn't mean the nuns aren't strict (I speak from personal experience)! Having to hide a relationship, as Shen/Zhao might have had to do, is really not that fun.

noidont said:

I think Josh Farris has great potential. I also happen to think Jason Brown's so called artistry is overrated. Han Yan however has something special - fantastic skating skill COP likes. I'm not even that much of a fan of his skating. Just stating a fact.

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I think Joshua has all the basics needed to be an effective competitor. But there's just some drive missing to get him to that next level from what I see: the drive to dominate the important competitions and/or the drive to express himself more fully on ice. Unlike you, I definitely think Brown's artistry is amazing. And unlike Farris, I think Brown has a much deeper hunger to succeed competitively and artistically. It's just Brown's high level jumps aren't there yet (fingers crossed for that 3axel).

Han Yan, on the other hand, belongs in a different context. Unlike the US, China has never had a single male skating star. So far, Han's record shows he's on his way to being the first. I think as raw as Han Yan is artistically, there are some fundamentals in there. He has a basic feel for the music, and I see glimpses of artistry and flair trying to come out. However, full musical expression is like a language he doesn't quite speak yet. And the time to learn languages is when one is young. He needs to be immersed in musical and dance training on a regular basis. The Chinese skating program does not appear to have any facility for that. If his family is as rich as some say, I wish he had the option to fund his overseas training himself. Barring that, competing in seniors would at least expose him to skaters who are more mature and complete artistically.

My frustration isn't just for Han's sake. I mean, I'd hate to see skating talent squandered anywhere. But for a country that hasn't had a breakthrough success in that discipline, it's especially frustrating. The rise of one trailblazer usually unearths a glut of other stars. Shen/Zhao paved the way for the other Chinese pairs; Midori Ito/Yuka Sato presaged the explosion of Japanese ladies, etc. If the Chinese federation cultivates Han into a star, that will lead to others. It's not just Han's potential they're holding back here.

This is going to be an amazing couple of seasons leading up to the games! There are just SO MANY remarkable athletes in the field.
I hope that Johnny does well, and that Dai can sweep Patrick off the top of the podeum for a bit.
But out of all of the skaters competing I expect we'll see great things from Yuzuru, that kid's on fire!

I think we have the deepest Men's field ever. There are so many quality skaters right now that watching the Men is a joy and a treat, unlike the Ladies field which is generally weak. Chan and Takahashi are at the highest level, but the rest of the top 10 are none too shabby either and with Plushenko, Lysacek and Weir coming back next season, it only gets more difficult to make the podium.

dorispulaski said:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kO8Br4cohiM

Peter Tchernyshev looked great skating to anything IMO. Here he and Naomi Lang look great skating to Parisienne Walkways by Gary Moore

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Thank you, Doris. You’re indeed an expert! Peter looks handsome in that video.

Tonichelle said:

Yes but Peter wears (orr at least in 05 wore) too much cologne... he's one of those guys that seems to bathe in it... he sat behind us during the ice dance events at nationals... found out a few weeks later that it was most likely the reason I had such intense headaches as that's one of my triggers. BLAH.

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Certain types of cologne also give me headaches. Good that we don’t smell anything watching online video. We only watch his great skating.

Olympia said:

I don't want to get in the middle of your argument, but this statement of yours is very impressive indeed. Very few people have the self-discipline to do what you're doing. Best of luck to you! You'll be an asset to any career you decide to pursue.

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Thank you, Olympia. Best of luck to you and the skaters you like in the coming season, too!

SkateFan66 said:

No.

2012-13 Team Envelope Criteria

Envelope A:
•Placements 1st-10th at the 2012 ISU World Figure Skating Championships
•2012 U.S. National Senior Champion
•Placements 1st-3rd at the ISU Senior Grand Prix Final in the 2011-12 season
•2012 ISU Four Continents Champion

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noidont said:

To Lakeside though, for what reason do you assume the Chinese taxpayers are unwilling to pay for Han Yan's training costs? I'm guessing we just don't know. Actually, maybe the US taxpayers wouldn't so much object to paying for Josh Farris as well. Maybe the problem lies with the U.S. system's inability to fund their top skaters properly, which is definitely not Han Yan's fault...

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I don’t think there are big problems with the U.S. system. As you can see from SkateFan66’s post, the USFS operates under the scholarship system. You need to fulfill certain criteria in order to get the Team A envelope. I don’t have problem with providing financial aid grants for talented poor skaters like Plushenko and S/Z and other poor Chinese and Russian skaters either. The U.S. government also provides some financial aid loans and grants for poor students, although they have to pay off the loans after several years. The problem with Yan is that rich student should not receive financial aid grant (note the difference between scholarship and financial aid) under any system. I’m not saying it’s Yan’s fault, but his good luck definitely put most of his competitors at a disadvantage.

As “for what reason do I assume the Chinese taxpayers are unwilling to pay for Han Yan,” I did not elaborate on it because I did not want to get too much into Chinese political economy. But since you are asking now, first of all you know income inequality is a big problem in China and many Chinese hate second-generation rich who show off their luxury items. Second of all corruption is another big problem in China that makes its citizens lose trust in the government. If they find out income inequality and corruption are linked together, they will not be happy.

There have been news that Chinese government is giving out big prizes like tens of thousands of dollars to Olympic medalists and many Chinese think medalists make too much money. Then Chinese Olympic gold and silver medalists in shooting and their coach (the first medals are expected to come on the shooting and so the medalists usually get high prizes) clarified that they did not get all those high prizes and they also only make several hundred dollars each month, just like many other Chinese. But even after their clarification some Chinese still do not believe them and think they’re intentionally saying that to show off their patriotism. They are already Olympic gold and silver medalists and are likely to win more medals for China at the coming London Olympics, yet some of their compatriots show jealousy and disbelief towards them.

Income inequality, together with inflation and unaffordable housing, have created big social tensions in China that many Chinese care less about Olympic medals than buying mini apartment for themselves. Chinese taxpayers do not trust how the government is using their money because there’s a high level of corruption in most government agencies, and China’s sport administration center has certainly been associated with corruption. If some Chinese show jealousy and disbelief towards their Olympic gold and silver medalists and multiple time world champions, then I don’t think they will be happy if they find out they’re paying for some junior skater who did not even win JGPF. Unlike Yan, the questioned Olympic shooting medalists are not second-generation rich. They’re from middle-class families and worked hard to attain success. Plus, the taxpayers are not just paying for Yan’s training costs, but they’re paying for his stay in some nice villa in the U.S., that’s something different than what Joshua and even Jeremy get from the USFS.

I did some research before I posted about the Chinese taxpayers. Because Chinese taxpayers do not have the opportunity to vote on anything, we will never know each of their opinion. I plan to take a class that’s related to Chinese political economy in the fall, so I wanted to warm up for it and conducted a simple survey myself by asking 10 Chinese citizens including my relative’s family, their colleagues and friends, and my schoolmates from mainland China. I asked them, “If given a choice, do you want a part of your taxes to cover Han Yan’s expenses?” 9 out of 10 people voted “No,” only 1 (my uncle) voted “Yes.” In the surveying process most people did not know who is Han Yan, 3 people asked if Yan is a poor child out of school who needs education and they were willing to make donations. I explained to them briefly, “Han Yan is a talented young Chinese figure skater who is likely to win multiple world and even Olympic medals for China.” 5 out of 10 people (they make about $800-$1,000 each month) hesitated and said “I don’t make much money myself.” “I think China’s tax rate is too high for low-income families. I wish we could have a tax cut.” “Can the athlete’s parents also help part of funding? How is Han Yan’s family economy?” I answered “he’s from a rich family and he has luxury items.” Then all 5 people voted “No” and said “I want to save money so I can buy a mini apartment/send my child to better school.” “If Yan’s parents can buy him luxury items, then ask them to pay for his expenses.” “This is another example of how corrupt our government is!” 2 out of 10 people are relatively rich, but they also voted “No” and said “I make like 2 million RMB per year, but I don’t let my teenage child wear luxury items. Something’s wrong with Han Yan’s parents. If we spoil kids like this, they will not be independent and responsible individuals.” “I’ve also been called second-generation rich before, but my dad only wears an Omega. This Han Yan is richer than my dad.” 1 out of 10 people happens to like figure skating and she likes S/Z and Plushenko, but she also voted “No” because she’s only willing to pay for the poor skaters like S/Z and Plushenko, but unwilling to pay for the rich ones. The remaining 1 person did not ask about Han Yan’s family economy and did not want a tax cut but said, “Our government already spends too much money on sports. It’s like they want to hide their inefficiencies by doing the easy things. I wish they could use tax money to help the laid-off workers or to build a strong military so we can beat Japan and get the Diaoyu Islands back, so No.” I did not even tell any of them that Yan stayed in a nice villa while training in the U.S.

noidont said:

I think Josh Farris has great potential. I also happen to think Jason Brown's so called artistry is overrated.

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I agree about Joshua’s great potential, but I think Jason does have great artistry. I respect your opinion even though I disagree.

SkateFiguring said:

I assume US taxpayers have a lot to disagree with on how their money is spent.

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But Americans are not paying for all of Joshua’s expenses + his stay in a nice villa in Europe, so it’s different than Han Yan’s situaion. Plus, if the majority of Americans are dissatisfied with how the government spends our money, we have an opportunity to throw the president out of office every 4 years. I don’t think the Chinese have this opportunity even though they deserve it. :disapp:

Serious Business said:

Unlike the US, China has never had a single male skating star. So far, Han's record shows he's on his way to being the first. I think as raw as Han Yan is artistically, there are some fundamentals in there. He has a basic feel for the music, and I see glimpses of artistry and flair trying to come out. However, full musical expression is like a language he doesn't quite speak yet. And the time to learn languages is when one is young. He needs to be immersed in musical and dance training on a regular basis. The Chinese skating program does not appear to have any facility for that. If his family is as rich as some say, I wish he had the option to fund his overseas training himself. Barring that, competing in seniors would at least expose him to skaters who are more mature and complete artistically.

My frustration isn't just for Han's sake. I mean, I'd hate to see skating talent squandered anywhere. But for a country that hasn't had a breakthrough success in that discipline, it's especially frustrating. The rise of one trailblazer usually unearths a glut of other stars. Shen/Zhao paved the way for the other Chinese pairs; Midori Ito/Yuka Sato presaged the explosion of Japanese ladies, etc. If the Chinese federation cultivates Han into a star, that will lead to others. It's not just Han's potential they're holding back here.

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These are two significant points. I agree with both of them.

The problem with saying that Han Yan's family is allegedly rich and should pay for his training expenses is that they don't have the option to! The Chinese federation isn't going to let them. As the saying goes, he who pays the piper calls the tunes. If Han Yan and his family pays his own way, then he gets to do things his own way. The Chinese fed is having none of that. The organization wants total control over their athletes' major decisions. Recall the horrific breakdown of relations between Lu Chen and the organization when Lulu wanted a bit more control over her skating. The federation insists on calling the shots and to do that, they must also hold the purse strings.

Blaming this on Han Yan and his family is ludicrous. It's a situation, an institution and really a whole culture that was firmly established before they ever had a say. One skater's family, no matter how supposedly rich, will not buck it. If you feel Han Yan should pay for his own training expenses, then your quarrel should be with the Chinese federation. If, like me, you feel the Chinese federation is holding Han back and keeping him from necessary training, once again, the problem is still the Chinese skating federation. If Han's family is indeed that rich, then both wishes result in the same thing: Han Yan living and training in Canada with Lori Nichols (or possibly with Patrick Chan's new team).

There's a tendency in Chinese social media to focus displeasure and rage at individuals when the real problem is the institution at large. This is, of course, the direct result of the Chinese government's strict control of the internet that tolerates very little overt dissent about the government. The masses still has plenty of frustration they need to vent, given the many intractable and glaring problems in China. With the government itself being a rather unsafe target, most of that venting is visited on people instead (and also, occasionally, foreign nations). This is ultimately ineffectual in achieving anything besides temporarily quelling mob anger. Those of us outside the purview of China's media censors should try not to fall prey to their scheme. Recall the ancient proverb: hate the game, not the player.

I agree with you 100% I realy wish I could go see worlds or the olympics because of the vast mens field! But if Yu-Na Kim is coming back that should definately add some excitement to the Ladies, not to mention that the Japanese women are prety kick ***.

Liza also has a lot of potential and will be a pleasure to watch!

Welcome, SparkelyOnsie. Thanks for joining us. Post often, post long!

Dragonlady said:

I think we have the deepest Men's field ever. There are so many quality skaters right now that watching the Men is a joy and a treat, unlike the Ladies field which is generally weak. Chan and Takahashi are at the highest level, but the rest of the top 10 are none too shabby either and with Plushenko, Lysacek and Weir coming back next season, it only gets more difficult to make the podium.

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I don't think the ladies' field is particularly weak. It may not have a skater as dominant as Patrick Chan, but like the men's field where Chan and Takahashi clearly lead the pack, two women absolutely dominated in the last season: Carolina Kostner and Suzuki Akiko. Kostner was first or second in every event she competed in, same with Akiko, until Worlds where she only came in third thanks to a surprise charge by Alena Leonova. And just like the men's field, after the two leaders, there are a bunch of women who are potential challengers (and even spoilers, as Leonova showed). The up and coming Russian girls alone make the discipline a formidable place. Then there are the returns of Yuna Kim and possibly Miki Ando. There's the international breakthrough of Ashley Wagner, and the American upstart Gracie Gold. None of the female skaters I just mentioned can rest easy for a second in a field like this.

I would also add Elizaveta to that list for winning both her Grand Prixes, Ando and Kim for returning next year, and Julia Lipnitskaya for her technical ability. The ladies field next year is going to be extremely crowded and exciting.

Serious Business said:

There's a tendency in Chinese social media to focus displeasure and rage at individuals when the real problem is the institution at large. This is, of course, the direct result of the Chinese government's strict control of the internet that tolerates very little overt dissent about the government. The masses still has plenty of frustration they need to vent, given the many intractable and glaring problems in China. With the government itself being a rather unsafe target, most of that venting is visited on people instead (and also, occasionally, foreign nations). This is ultimately ineffectual in achieving anything besides temporarily quelling mob anger. Those of us outside the purview of China's media censors should try not to fall prey to their scheme.

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Nicely said! When Chinese citizens live in that totalitarian society and are forced to pay a high proportion of their income for many things they don’t like, they get angry, and they need someone to vent to. Since they’re not allowed to blame the government, they can only blame the individuals who enjoy privileges and exemptions.

Serious Business said:

Recall the ancient proverb: hate the game, not the player.

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But hatred for certain players is maybe part of human nature, as seen on almost all forums. I still feel that you’re biased. If you think Chinese low-income families should blame the institution and not blame the rich guys like Han Yan and his family, but when Patrick won a competition that you felt he should not have won and got high scores that you felt were vastly overmarked, you also did not just blame the game, but you blamed Patrick himself more.

Serious Business said:

I don't think the ladies' field is particularly weak. …… The up and coming Russian girls alone make the discipline a formidable place. Then there are the returns of Yuna Kim and possibly Miki Ando. There's the international breakthrough of Ashley Wagner, and the American upstart Gracie Gold. None of the female skaters I just mentioned can rest easy for a second in a field like this.

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I think the ladies’ field will be deeper next season with the Russian girls reaching eligible age, Yuna and Miki returning, and Ashley and Gracie breaking through. However, it was relatively weak this past season, especially if you compare it to the men’s field. While about 16 men tried quad at the worlds, none of the top 10 ladies did 3lz+3t or 3f+3t in their LP. Like some other fans, I am tired of watching 3t+3t and am expecting ladies to push themselves toward greater technical challenges.

lakeside said:

But hatred for certain players is maybe part of human nature, as seen on almost all forums. I still feel that you’re biased. If you think Chinese low-income families should blame the institution and not blame the rich guys like Han Yan and his family, but when Patrick won a competition that you felt he should not have won and got high scores that you felt were vastly overmarked, you also did not just blame the game, but you blamed Patrick himself more.

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Several points here:

The reason people shouldn't blame Han Yan and his family is that they don't have much power. If they did, Han Yan would be training where he wanted! As another ancient proverb goes, with great power comes great responsibility. The corollary being that with little power comes little responsibility. It is always the people in power who should be blamed.

I don't hate Patrick Chan. I have said over and over that I am a Chan fan, and thought he earned his win in Nice. What I also say though, is that I can sympathize with people who are displeased with Chan's win, and think there's enough displeasure to prompt the ISU to change the rules/judging. Even if I thought Chan's win was undeserved, I'd never blame it on him, but on the ISU and the judges!

And the last point I have to make is one I didn't get the room to go into in my previous post about Han Yan: when I refer to the Chinese social media going after individuals, I am strictly referring to the Chinese middle and upper class. The poor and downtrodden in China are almost always rural-born (the rural-born in China receive far less basic rights and opportunities by law). And there are a great many of them, and almost none of them even have the internet (or have even heard of it) to be using social media. And their grievances are a lot more immediate: factory workers who aren't paid, farmers who are forcibly moved to make way for developments. And very often, when they vent, they don't have a choice but to go after the government directly. This has led to very dramatic strikes and outright sieges all over China. I don't mean to give the impression that the Chinese people only ever vent on the internet and only about non-government targets.

lakeside said:

I think the ladies’ field will be deeper next season with the Russian girls reaching eligible age, Yuna and Miki returning, and Ashley and Gracie breaking through. However, it was relatively weak this past season, especially if you compare it to the men’s field. While about 16 men tried quad at the worlds, none of the top 10 ladies did 3lz+3t or 3f+3t in their LP. Like some other fans, I am tired of watching 3t+3t and am expecting ladies to push themselves toward greater technical challenges.

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I didn't compare the jump ambition of the women's field in the past season with previous ones, or what might be expected of them, because I think the current crop of women are still adjusting to the stringent under-rotation calls of the modern IJS. Many of these skaters would be attempting more difficult 3/3s, just like the ladies of yore, if the laxer rules were in place. But those 3/3s, like the 3/3s that many past women's luminaries have done, would not pass muster under the current system. So I don't see it as a regression, but just an avoidance of past elements that are now deemed unacceptable.

So instead, I look more towards consistency. I also have in mind the comparison between men and women's tennis, where men's tennis is now consistently dominated by the same top 4 players, while current women's tennis is universally criticized for being weak because any dozens of players could win major tournaments on any given day. And then I look at women's skating, where it is pretty clear that we have very strong and consistent skaters at the top who are always podium challengers.

The jump content in the women's field will absolutely improve as the upcoming generation of skater is one that lived and breathed the UR-calls from the word go. Is the current women's field weaker compared to this future generation? Sure. But any previous generation of skaters would also be weaker compared to them in this regard. Sports evolve and that's a good thing.

With regard to the Ladies, I don't think Yu-na will be a force without Brian Orser. She had lost a lot of speed, flow, and just general polish in her last visit to Worlds and she's been out of competition ever since so she's unlikely to have maintained her competitive skills considering she's been going to school, etc. Yu-Na was a much better skater with Orserr than she was before, or since. Dumping him was not Team Kim's best idea.

I'm not a big Miki fan and I've never been much of a Kostner fan. Mao Asada is my favourite of the current crop of Ladies and I do hope she's back with a vengence this season. She's had a tough couple of years but I'm glad she made the effort to fix her technical.

The Russian superbabies are not quite soup yet but it's fun watching them grow up. Julia S. is the one to watch this season, I think. Her growth issues are (hopefully) behind her and her jumps are still intact as we saw at the end of last season. Elizabetha T. is a wonder, but I have heard she has grown so I'll wait and see how she's doing. I'm glad to see that she'll be getting real choreography this season. Her LP was truly dreadful last year. She really deserves better than that horrible program.

Dragonlady said:

With regard to the Ladies, I don't think Yu-na will be a force without Brian Orser. She had lost a lot of speed, flow, and just general polish in her last visit to Worlds and she's been out of competition ever since so she's unlikely to have maintained her competitive skills considering she's been going to school, etc. Yu-Na was a much better skater with Orserr than she was before, or since. Dumping him was not Team Kim's best idea.

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well, you can also argue about yuna's skating during 2010 worlds and 2011. she was with orser in 2010 and yet she had the most awful skating on her sp. her speed, flow, etc are fine, she just need some motivation to get back.

The season has not started yet, guys!

Let's see how well YuNa performs without Orser but with Wilson's (probably) gorgeous programs, and with her reportedly 'newly found' motivation (competitive fire) within herself and her 'unchanged' love for skating. Let's see how much Javier and Yuzuru will progress under Orser and how higher both can go up in the mix in the new season, shall we?

Very interesting vids from the Liberty Open comp this past weekend in Philly !

Ross Miner is attempting a quad sal in his FS! Brandon Mroz attempted a quad loop!

I've always thought Ross needed a quad to get him to that next level internationally, apparently he agrees! Not only that, but from his stroking pattern, it appears that the second jump, a triple sal, is also intended to be a quad eventually! If he can land one or two quads in his FS, and keep the rest of his jumps at his usual level, Miner could be a formidable force!

Brandon Mroz, whose skating I'm less sanguine about, is apparently determined to enter the record books again as the first skater to land yet another kind of quad jump. I can't even hate. I say good for him and I hope he succeeds. I don't see him making much of a dent in higher level comps unless the rest of his skating catches up considerably, though.

I do think Brian was great for Yuna and I will be interested to see how she does without him. In fact I will be interested to see how Orser's students do in general - he has some great potential actually all the big names he have really have huge potential - even Phaneuf if she can regain her jumps, up her speed and power.

Dragonlady, you should have not brought the Orser-Yuna thing up, unnecessarily.

By the way.. One who dumped seems to be Orser, not Yuna.
Yuna felt a sense of betrayal.

Dragonlady said:

Dumping him was not Team Kim's best idea.

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