Who will rise and who will fall in 2012-13?

[Skater Boy]

Well we need some thing to talk about as we wait for the new skating season to begin. We see all these stories and everyone suggests somehow everyone is moving up,k getting better, stronger etc. The fact of the matter is there are only three medals for each discipline and someone has to move up and that usually means someone has to move down. Even saying everyone is improving well someone has to improve a lot more and someone a lot less.

I'd say I would expect Patrick Chan to move down simply because he was or is on top but you can see Daisuke in particular ready to surge ahead. I think P and B in dance may move down as well I expect W and P and C and L to move up. I have no idea what to make of the two Russian dance teams who seem to be battling it out against one another.


I aniticipate Leonova will move on down and be replaced by a baby ballerina or two. I expect Kaviguti and Smirnov to make a move back up in pairs. I think we may say good bye to Alyssa at least for this year with her injury. look for Caroline Zhang to re enter the skating world

[seniorita]

I hope Wagner is on the way up, Mao too, Kanako too, I dont exlude Leonova who seems more motivated than ever,V/T will maybe surpass S/S, Javier and Brezina up, Hanyu up - up and Chan is in his best age for a skater and maybe he will have a new quad so certainly up.
Oh and I hope Kozuka bounces back.

[plushyfan]

I hope Mao, Kozuka, the Russian teenager girls, Gachinsky are on the way up. And I really hope, that Jeremy Abbott can skate two clean programs at international contests.

[l'etoile]

My hope is that Caroline, Ashley, Brian Joubert, Carolina, and Brezina continue their rise from last season. And I think they will not let down.

[emdee]

If you meanthat Chan will not win everything in sight then you are correct but I dont really think he will move down from his position at the top which he shares with a couple of elite skaters!

I hope Kozuka moves up. I much prefer him to a sometimes over the top Dai.

[phaeljones]

Well we need some thing to talk about as we wait for the new skating season to begin. We see all these stories and everyone suggests somehow everyone is moving up,k getting better, stronger etc. The fact of the matter is there are only three medals for each discipline and someone has to move up and that usually means someone has to move down. Even saying everyone is improving well someone has to improve a lot more and someone a lot less.

I'd say I would expect Patrick Chan to move down simply because he was or is on top but you can see Daisuke in particular ready to surge ahead. I think P and B in dance may move down as well I expect W and P and C and L to move up. I have no idea what to make of the two Russian dance teams who seem to be battling it out against one another.

How well the single male skaters do in the upcoming season will be not so much whether they can hold their own, but how much they can improve. In that regard, I give Kudos to the kid, Yuzuro, for really shaking the tree last season.

I think Patrick Chan is moving in the right direction, taking his technical abilities acquired through working with Krall and turning them artistic. When he is on mentally, he really is something. He has not peaked yet.

Dai may be the sentimental favorite, having a charisma that Chan lacks, but how far he can improve and in what direction. Everyone seems to think that he has the momentum now. I am not so sure. I was not that thrilled with his performance in Nice for a Dai performance. I thought he held back, playing it safe, rather than taking chances, and that he could be better than he was letting himself skate. I don't think he has Chan's natural ability (although he relates better to the audience) and am wondering whether he has peaked. That having been said, he is really smart and strategic, and that may push him ahead if Chan and Yuzuru falter, but all things being as they have appeared, I expect that Patrick will stay above Dai.

The wildcard has to be Yuzuru Hanyu. He is so young and appears to be going through a growth spurt that might be causing adjustment issues. No doubt, he will overcome them, but, in the interim, they could have a detrimental effect if they assert themselves on the wrong day at the wrong time. (Maybe he got them out of his system at DOI.) For his age, I don't think that there was ever been a more gifted skater, and even forgetting about his age, he is already in the elite podium group and worthy of belonging there. He has nowhere reached his potential, but whether he can keep rising through next season without (temporary) setback is difficult to predict. But what he was born with, no one can take away. Next season for him may or may not be big ones for him, but as long as he stays on course, probably within two years, he will be challenging (and possibly unseating) Patrick Chan. Both these skaters, working to beat each other, will make for two of the greatest skaters the sport has ever seen. (With great respect for Dai, I just don't put him the category of Patrick and Yuzuru.) I would love to see Yuzuru be number two next season - he could be number one - but if there one thing that you can predict about Hanyu, it is his unpredictability (most likely due to his age). He just has to keep focussed next year (and avoid injury . . . those falls at DOI were truly scary and he is - and we are - really lucky that he was not seriously hurt) and come what may, nothing will stop him from eventually prevailing.

Outside those top three skaters, I will be next watching Joubert and Machida with interest and love of the sport. Neither of them are going to be podium, but for the joy of watching great skaters, just their having skated does it for me. When I saw the DOI performance of Machida on youtube, I really felt awful that the odds are against this skater making it to worlds. For Joubert and Machida, I don't care about their scores. To me, they represent the very best of the sport.

Kozuka, I just don't have a good feeling for his skating. His rut seems to be really deep. His rebound, if he gets one, would be really a surprise.

Other than that for the men, I don't expect too much from anyone, but would love to be surprised.

Regarding women, I think that Mao might come back, but over a two year period. Next year will be part of the trajectory, but the culmination will be in two years.

Next year for all of the skaters is really the inbetween year.

[pangtongfan]

Fall: Miki Ando (if she skates at all), Johnny Weir (if he skates at all), Savchenko & Szolkowy, Takahashi & Tran, Pechalat & Bourzat, possibly even Davis & White, Alena Leonova, Akiko Suzuki, Zhang & new partner, Sui & Han, Pang & Tong

Rise: Weaver & Poje, Yu Na Kim (if she skates), Mao Asada, Volosozhar & Trankov, Duhamel & Radford, Ashley Wagner, Gracie Gold

[Olympia]

Pangtongfan, I hope you're wrong about Davis and White and Akiko Suzuki especially, and I hope even more intensely that you're right about Kim and Asada.

[pangtongfan]

I think we will see a slight changing of the gaurd in ice dance. Virtue & Moir will remain #1 and probably go undefeated this season. However Davis & White will lose more ground to Virtue & Moir, losing the GP final for the first time, and will see themselves challenged more closely, and perhaps even bumped down from #2 at Worlds. Weaver & Poje on home ice and with their improvement of late are a lock for a World medal this year if they dont screw it up IMO, either silver or bronze. Pechalat & Bourzat will be dumped, dropping to 5th or 6th. They have their World medal, the powers that be will probably decide time to bring others especialy the Russians into conention with Sochi looming (not the Shibutanis who will stay outside the top 7 IMO).

Onto ladies this could be a crazy season. The Russian babies will make their presence known, I should have included them in the rising group. I think only Sotnikova is age eligible for Worlds though. Wagner will continue her rise and win a World medal IMO. If Kim shows up at Worlds ready I think she will regain her World title, while a revived Mao will be back on the podium or atleast closer to it. The podium of last year will slide backwards, their level isnt that high really, the level of skating in the ladies event was just really low the last 2 years. As for Ando her comeback will be a major flop and aborted before Sochi.

Onto the men I could see things staying the same, or potentially Takahashi and Hanyu really challenging, maybe even overtaking Chan. This season will be alot closer than the Chan coronations of the last 2 seasons, and the criticsm of Chanflation I think is starting to be felt by the judges too and we will finally see some more fair judging again. For the first time in years Chan will have to earn his wins on the ice. In any case I see those remaining the top 3. Fernandez could continue to rise to the level of podium contender though. I didnt mention Joubert but I dont see him mantaining his Nice high, so he is another who will slide backwards IMO. Will be interesting if Plushenko shows up at Worlds, he could contend for a medal if he does, but highly unlikely to get the gold. Abbott will remain #1 in the U.S and might finally get some of the consistency to challenge for a world medal, we will see, it is now or never for him.

Pairs I definitely see Voloszhar & Trankov passing the Germans by for good this season. I dont see Takahashi & Tran being able to mantain being #3 in the World, and I see Sui & Han really dropping down and possibly missing the Chinese World team altogether. I dont see any Chinese pairs in serious contender, and the bronze at Worlds will go to either another Russian pair or Duhamel & Radford.

[DianaSelene]

I think we will see a slight changing of the gaurd in ice dance. Virtue & Moir will remain #1 and probably go undefeated this season. However Davis & White will lose more ground to Virtue & Moir, losing the GP final for the first time, and will see themselves challenged more closely, and perhaps even bumped down from #2 at Worlds. Weaver & Poje on home ice and with their improvement of late are a lock for a World medal this year if they dont screw it up IMO, either silver or bronze. Pechalat & Bourzat will be dumped, dropping to 5th or 6th. They have their World medal, the powers that be will probably decide time to bring others especialy the Russians into conention with Sochi looming (not the Shibutanis who will stay outside the top 7 IMO).

Onto ladies this could be a crazy season. The Russian babies will make their presence known, I should have included them in the rising group. I think only Sotnikova is age eligible for Worlds though. Wagner will continue her rise and win a World medal IMO. If Kim shows up at Worlds ready I think she will regain her World title, while a revived Mao will be back on the podium or atleast closer to it. The podium of last year will slide backwards, their level isnt that high really, the level of skating in the ladies event was just really low the last 2 years. As for Ando her comeback will be a major flop and aborted before Sochi.

Onto the men I could see things staying the same, or potentially Takahashi and Hanyu really challenging, maybe even overtaking Chan. This season will be alot closer than the Chan coronations of the last 2 seasons, and the criticsm of Chanflation I think is starting to be felt by the judges too and we will finally see some more fair judging again. For the first time in years Chan will have to earn his wins on the ice. In any case I see those remaining the top 3. Fernandez could continue to rise to the level of podium contender though. I didnt mention Joubert but I dont see him mantaining his Nice high, so he is another who will slide backwards IMO. Will be interesting if Plushenko shows up at Worlds, he could contend for a medal if he does, but highly unlikely to get the gold. Abbott will remain #1 in the U.S and might finally get some of the consistency to challenge for a world medal, we will see, it is now or never for him.

Pairs I definitely see Voloszhar & Trankov passing the Germans by for good this season. I dont see Takahashi & Tran being able to mantain being #3 in the World, and I see Sui & Han really dropping down and possibly missing the Chinese World team altogether. I dont see any Chinese pairs in serious contender, and the bronze at Worlds will go to either another Russian pair or Duhamel & Radford.

Tuktamysheva is also age eligible for euros and worlds. It is Lipnitskaya who is not- she can only do senior gp.

[l'etoile]

I'm inclined to agree with pangtongfan's speculation here although my heart would break if S/S or P/T fall down:(

[SkateFiguring]

I'd say I would expect Patrick Chan to move down simply because he was or is on top but you can see Daisuke in particular ready to surge ahead.

I think you err on the application of your theory. Going by stock market wave theories, e.g. Elliot Wave theory or K-waves, the bigger cycle has to be taken into consideration. There are rises and falls along the major rise and fall. On the rise, there are highs and lows but they are sequentially higher highs and higher lows. Conversely, on the fall side, there are highs and lows but these are lower highs and lower lows. Chan is still on the rise and last season was actually a low compared to the previous one. He had to survive the many challenges, physical and emotional, of last season and is primed for another good season though sometimes it's hard to tell exactly when the crests and troughs are because they may not correspond precisely with the season's timeline. Takahashi, OTOH, peaked in 2009-10 season, followed by the low 10-11 and the high 11-12 which however is a lower high than the previous high which is being confirmed as the peak. By chart theories I expect a low season for Takahashi which might prompt his retirement. Already his motivation needs reinforcement by Morozov.

Rises:

Men - Kozuka, Abbott. Abbott may win a Worlds medal and retire.
Ladies - Asada; Wagner, Zhang, and Mirai nationally but no Worlds medals. Kim wins a Worlds medal but not Gold.
Dance - D/W, W/P
Pairs - S/S stays on top, S/H, P/T

Falls:

Men - Weir.
Ladies - Ando, Leonova; Czisny retires.
Dance - V/M after GPF
Pairs - T/T

I see GPF as a turning point for some - a crest for Takahashi, V/M, V/T, Leonova, and Suzuki. IOW, they will do very well in the GP series but falters after.

[emdee]

Skatefiguring,
Dont agree on the dance at all. Post Olympics D&W had their rise when V&M were MIA due to surgery. They may have not won the WCh last year but it did not constitute a fall. They will have to provide innovation to continue to rise if not they will fall as they have W&P at their heels.
V&M on the other hand had the small fall last year in GPF but with continuing good health I think they will surge until Sochi.

[SkateFiguring]

Skatefiguring,
Dont agree on the dance at all. Post Olympics D&W had their rise when V&M were MIA due to surgery. They may have not won the WCh last year but it did not constitute a fall. They will have to provide innovation to continue to rise if not they will fall as they have W&P at their heels.
V&M on the other hand had the small fall last year in GPF but with continuing good health I think the will surge until Sochi.

I see V/M winning Sochi Gold.

eta. When I said "falter" I only mean results. Causes vary, maybe technical, maybe situational. My cycle studies show me often events happen to correspond to the timeline. Hard to explain.

[emdee]

I see V/M winning Sochi Gold.

And do you see Patrick winning Sochi Gold too?