Ashley or Gracie?

[skateluvr]

The Lp is brand new....it will be tweaked and she will get better at it. I personally am disappointed in her music choice, or whoever chose it...but it isn't too late to change it. She needs strong upbeat music I feel, like Mirai to shine.

Mirai has better programs this year, upbeat, at least her sp. Mirai peaked very early. She may not repeat the incredible results, but look at Zhang...anything is possible. Her sp from last year is beautiful. I just watched her summer peformance and she seems to have better stroking. Mirai is still in the mix. We know what she can do. Consistency is a problem, like more than 1 skater. Right now Goldie deserves the hype in the US We shall see.

[kwanatic]

If I had to choose b/w Ashley or Gracie, I'll take Ashley. She's a complete skater right now whereas Gracie is on her way to becoming a complete skater.

As of right now, Gracie is purely a jumper to me. Her jumps are big and difficult and that's a good thing to have...but the rest of her skating falls squarely into the "meh" category IMO. She's a mediocre performer as of now. She's getting a bit better but she is still learning the basics of selling a program, committing to the choreography and bringing it to life as opposed to just going through the movements, which is what she does now. There were brief moments in her new SP where you see her perform, but the majority of the program she looks as though she's concentrating. The program itself is well done which gives me hope. Once she settles into it she'll be able to go on auto-pilot and put more effort towards performing instead of thinking about what she's doing.

If Ashley maintains her form from last season and is able to add that 3-3 to her programs, I can't see anyone beating her. Ashley has the maturity, presence and command that Gracie lacks, as well interpretation, performance level, and just overall presentation in her skating. She's a seasoned senior and she skates like one. Gracie will (hopefully) gain some of those traits with time but for now, she still skates like a junior.

As far as nationals, Ashley's got the momentum from her last three competitions working in her favor and if she continues to do well that will boost her status/favor with the judges even higher. Gracie can compete internationally based on her firepower alone so, unless another US lady (namely Mirai or possibly Agnes) steps up, I'm guessing she'll end up in that 2nd spot.

Caroline has made wonderful improvements but she still has a way to go. However, that 3L-3L is a monster and if she can nail it she has a great shot at the podium this year.

If by some chance Mirai channels some of that magic she had back in 2010, she'd be a threat to one of those top two spots. I'm not sure what she's bringing to the table in terms of jumps, but with a solid and inspired performance she could knock someone off of the podium. Mirai is always the darkhorse in a competition; if she skates lights out, she's on the podium...period.

This season is shaping up to be one of the most exciting in a long time. There is so much talent in the ladies field...it's just a matter of who is going to step up.

[janetfan]

The topic is a bit odd to me.
Gracie is just entering her first full season as a senior.

Without doubt....any doubt whatsoever......next season....the Olympic season .....will have a much greater impact on Gracie's career than the 2013 season.

Most likely (and certainly not guaranteed) if Gracie has a breakout season in 2013 then for the following Olympic season we will see her with better choreography..$$$$$

Gracie's new LP doesn't seem to have been done by a master CoP point collecter and that should change by next season if Gracie continues to progress.

She already has the best jumps of any American lady so now it depends on whether she can land them consistently in competition and continue to mature as a skater.

Ashley barely has an acceptable 2A IMO......in addition to continuing edge problems.
Her skating is more mature than Gracie's but that gap could close quikcer than people like to admit.

Remember, in the CoP it's not your real and actual artistry that matters - but only your artistry as it relates to the difficulty of the jumps you land.

Of course that is totally unfair and unsporting but who would dare tell Jeremy anything different

[kwanatic]

^^Remember, even though Gracie hadn't even competed at the senior level yet there were people arguing that she should have been named to the senior world team last year. That's the hype/ridiculousness that has been thrown at this girl since that video of her doing that 3-3-3 hit YouTube last year.

This year is pretty important for Gracie simply b/c people have been hailing her as the second coming since last season so if she goes out there and tanks this season, that will be a pretty big let down. This is her first year senior and she should be able to go through it without people expecting her to be on every podium...but that's the downside to doing well (especially in a country that is salivating for a star). The expectation is there and that equals pressure. The 2013-2014 season is the big one for every skater with a dream of making it to Soichi...but a lot of the groundwork for next season will happen this season. Better to come into the Olympic season looking strong and reliable rather than trying to dig yourself out of a crappy season hole.

I only hope she can withstand the majority of it. I'd hate to see her crash and burn before she even gets a chance to get going...

[kwanatic]

ITA about her LP. Me no likey. It started off nicely but when the music switches it changes the entire feel of the program. I don't get the footwork with the little "whoa!" and bend over part...the music seems a bit confused. I think her SP is much better. They need to head back to the drawing board with the LP though...

[janetfan]

^^Remember, even though Gracie hadn't even competed at the senior level yet there were people arguing that she should have been named to the senior world team last year. That's the hype/ridiculousness that has been thrown at this girl since that video of her doing that 3-3-3 hit YouTube last year.

This year is pretty important for Gracie simply b/c people have been hailing her as the second coming since last season so if she goes out there and tanks this season, that will be a pretty big let down. This is her first year senior and she should be able to go through it without people expecting her to be on every podium...but that's the downside to doing well (especially in a country that is salivating for a star). The expectation is there and that equals pressure. The 2013-2014 season is the big one for every skater with a dream of making it to Soichi...but a lot of the groundwork for next season will happen this season. Better to come into the Olympic season looking strong and reliable rather than trying to dig yourself out of a crappy season hole.

I only hope she can withstand the majority of it. I'd hate to see her crash and burn before she even gets a chance to get going...

I agree but would remind you of all people of two words: SARAH HUGES

Sarah had a good (not great) 2000-01 season.
It was the next season...the Olympic season when she beat both Michelle and Irina....not once but twice. The big win of course was in SLC.

Sarah would never had won the OGM if she had not beaten both Michelle and Irina earlier that season.

Momentum and reputation counts...as much in sports as it does at pageants.

I agree that Gracie's LP is lacking...a good part of the choreo simply has little if no relationship to the music.

[kwanatic]

Hey, using Sarah Hughes is a bad example! That chick is the luckiest of all lucky skaters. Both of the favorites made mistakes and she ended up being the beneficiary. She beat them at Skate Canada or whatever competition that was but that wasn't the reason she won in SLC. She got lucky and had a great pressure-free skate while Michelle and Irina both bowed under the pressure. But it wasn't like Sarah came from obscurity to win; she was the reigning world bronze medalist in SLC. which is why it's important to make some kind of mark the year before the Olympics.

[janetfan]

Hey, using Sarah Hughes is a bad example! That chick is the luckiest of all lucky skaters. Both of the favorites made mistakes and she ended up being the beneficiary. She beat them at Skate Canada or whatever competition that was but that wasn't the reason she won in SLC. She got lucky and had a great pressure-free skate while Michelle and Irina both bowed under the pressure. But it wasn't like Sarah came from obscurity to win; she was the reigning world bronze medalist in SLC. which is why it's important to make some kind of mark the year before the Olympics.

Pretty sure Sarah beat Michelle and then beat Irina leading into the Olympics..
Then she landed herself on the cover of TIME magazine and was hyped as the girl to beat in SLC.

Call it luck if you want - but Sarah is not the one who fired Lori and then Frank......
And who is to say Gracie won't have such "luck" this season or next?

I think most athletes make their own luck.
Evan was "lucky" Plushy had weaker than normal jumps in the LP plus a program that was really only about 3 and half mintues long.

Evan was "lucky" Dai was wired more to "compete" rather than "win." Silly boy

Evan was lucky Chan collapsed under the pressure and Joubert was even worse than that.

But Evan could have also screwed up or collapsed under the pressure.

He did not.

Sarah did not break under the pressure in 2002.

That is not my definition of luck but closer to my definition of grace under pressure.

The stuff of champions.

Sport has always been that way.

[Mathman]

Sarah must have had serious case of, "What do I have to do to get a win around here!" Most people think she should have been placed first over Michelle at 2000 Skate America, and she could easily have got first at 2001 Skate America, too. At 2001 Skate Canada both Michelle and Irina were so far off their games that the judges had no choice but to give it to Sarah.

Curiously, Sarah won only three senior events in her career. Besides 2001 Skate Canada she also won the 1999 Vienna cup. Oh yes, and that little thing in Salt Lake City.

[silverlake22]

My outlook on Gracie is that the USFS was quick to jump on her bandwagon and deem her a top US lady hope for Sochi because she filled the void of a powerful jumper/technician that US figure skating in ladies needed. Obviously, we saw last season things shifted, but up until her meltdown at Worlds and injury, Alissa was our top US lady, and she has never been a powerful jumper with difficult content, and her age just makes it more certain that she will never be. Before she started getting UR calls and went to college, Rachael was the solid technician in the US, her programs were difficult, she was regularly landing 3-3s, and she was a consistent performer. Then that changed. There was hope that Agnes or Christina would be the next top US lady power jumper/technician, but then we saw Agnes become incredibly inconsistent and Gao struggle with a growthspurt and injury which hurt her jump consistency a bit, fail to improve the rest of her skating enough to really contend, and ultimately choose school as her top priority over skating. Mirai around the time of 2010 was a fantastic all-around skater but even she didn't have huge technical content between not attempting the 3s, not regularly going for a 3-3 in the SP, and having issues with URs and edge calls. Ashley stepped it up last season big time and became the Mirai equivalent of the 2009-2010 season, but the whole idea of Ashley as a top international contender is still new and there are still technical issues to be addressed. Then there were top juniors in previous seasons, but Hicks got injured, Dinh and Kulgeyko's success seemed to disappear after that one season, Siraj's jumps never became that solid, etc. So then there's Gracie, she's young, she seems more dedicated to her skating than to getting the best education possible, she's pretty consistent, her jumps are huge, she regularly reels out 3-3s with ease, doesn't get edge calls, and is a well-rounded enough skater in terms of artistry, looks, basics, etc. that no one really has a big problem with her. USFS found what they were looking for so that's why they are so gung-ho to promote and accept her as one of the top ladies going into Sochi.

[chuckm]

Sarah Hughes was third behind Kwan and Slutskaya in the GPF before the Olympics, and she was third at US Nationals 2002. Sarah was an egregious flutzer and she underrotated her jumps fairly frequently---that had a lot to do with her sparse collection of gold medals.

Sarah was in 4th place after the SP at the Olympics, and under 6.0, she was unlikely to win gold. She was under no pressure and just let herself go---something she never did in normal circumstances where she felt she could win. Sarah up to that point was always a sharply controlled skater; she always gave a workmanlike performance without much excitement. Her Olympic performance was a sharp departure from her usual, and that is why she won the FS. But in order for her to win the gold medal, both Kwan and Slutskaya had to crumble, and they did, a most unusual set of circumstances. Did luck play a major role in her OGM? It most certainly did.

Sarah never again came even close to her Olympic performance. She skipped Worlds 2002 and finished 6th at Worlds 2003 after completely bombing the QR.
When she returned to the ice at SOI after her sophomore year at college, she could land only a 2S and a 1A. When she performs at benefits these days, she has no jumps at all.

[Layfan]

My outlook on Gracie is that the USFS was quick to jump on her bandwagon and deem her a top US lady hope for Sochi because she filled the void of a powerful jumper/technician that US figure skating in ladies needed. Obviously, we saw last season things shifted, but up until her meltdown at Worlds and injury, Alissa was our top US lady, and she has never been a powerful jumper with difficult content, and her age just makes it more certain that she will never be. Before she started getting UR calls and went to college, Rachael was the solid technician in the US, her programs were difficult, she was regularly landing 3-3s, and she was a consistent performer. Then that changed. There was hope that Agnes or Christina would be the next top US lady power jumper/technician, but then we saw Agnes become incredibly inconsistent and Gao struggle with a growthspurt and injury which hurt her jump consistency a bit, fail to improve the rest of her skating enough to really contend, and ultimately choose school as her top priority over skating. Mirai around the time of 2010 was a fantastic all-around skater but even she didn't have huge technical content between not attempting the 3s, not regularly going for a 3-3 in the SP, and having issues with URs and edge calls. Ashley stepped it up last season big time and became the Mirai equivalent of the 2009-2010 season, but the whole idea of Ashley as a top international contender is still new and there are still technical issues to be addressed. Then there were top juniors in previous seasons, but Hicks got injured, Dinh and Kulgeyko's success seemed to disappear after that one season, Siraj's jumps never became that solid, etc. So then there's Gracie, she's young, she seems more dedicated to her skating than to getting the best education possible, she's pretty consistent, her jumps are huge, she regularly reels out 3-3s with ease, doesn't get edge calls, and is a well-rounded enough skater in terms of artistry, looks, basics, etc. that no one really has a big problem with her. USFS found what they were looking for so that's why they are so gung-ho to promote and accept her as one of the top ladies going into Sochi.

^I guess so.

I'm getting whiplash from keeping track of which USA lady is supposed to be the latest to watch out for.

It's a bummer that Mirai wasn't able to keep up the momentum she showed in 2010. She's still in the game. I think the issues you noted for her are correct. Same with Ashley.

USA ladies figure skating is just sort of a bummer for now.

If Mirai/Gracie/Ashley/Caroline/Agnes or any of them can breakthrough this season it will be most exciting. I hope Mirai can soar and not make silly mistakes. I hope Ashley can show the passion and consistency of last year and that Caroline surprises us with more improvement and that Agnes continues to find more polish as a skater. And Gracie.

[janetfan]

Sarah Hughes was third behind Kwan and Slutskaya in the GPF before the Olympics, and she was third at US Nationals 2002. Sarah was an egregious flutzer and she underrotated her jumps fairly frequently---that had a lot to do with her sparse collection of gold medals.

Sarah was in 4th place after the SP at the Olympics, and under 6.0, she was unlikely to win gold. She was under no pressure and just let herself go---something she never did in normal circumstances where she felt she could win. Sarah up to that point was always a sharply controlled skater; she always gave a workmanlike performance without much excitement. Her Olympic performance was a sharp departure from her usual, and that is why she won the FS. But in order for her to win the gold medal, both Kwan and Slutskaya had to crumble, and they did, a most unusual set of circumstances. Did luck play a major role in her OGM? It most certainly did.

Sarah never again came even close to her Olympic performance. She skipped Worlds 2002 and finished 6th at Worlds 2003 after completely bombing the QR.
When she returned to the ice at SOI after her sophomore year at college, she could land only a 2S and a 1A. When she performs at benefits these days, she has no jumps at all.

Excuses and opinions are interesting ....... and we are all familiar with Michelle's resume.......

but to put it in perspective this is the way it was:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fm9ar...D602CC950509CE

Those who tout skating as a real sport have to accept in real sports their are winners and runner ups.

Sarah is an Olympic champion and it didn't take her over a decade of senior skating to achieve her dream.

A skater only gets one chance the night of the LP. There are no take-overs

That night in SLC Sarah's star shined the brightest.

As Cosmo Kramer told us: "Poise counts."

In skating it seems at times almost anything can happen.

I give Gracie a skater's chance to win some titles in the next few seasons.
Maybe she will even be as lucky as Sarah was someday.

Or maybe she will have it in her to skate her best wen it matters the most....just the way Sarah did

[mskater93]

From the on demand at Glacier Falls, Mirai appears to have a LOT of technical work to do in addition to not putting together a "skate-skate-jump" program. My hope for her went down the drain when she decided against moving closer to Frank C.
I think the judges will find a way to reward the more experienced skater with only one major mistake (think Wagner with one two footed 3+3 and her Flutz) over the dynamic, speedy technician (Gold) with the meh LP. I love Gracie's SP, though, and if she and Scott can find a way to bring out her personality in the LP (Skate Detroit was her first outing), look out...

[Mathman]

Sorry, off topic, but to mskater93, what is depicted in your new avatar?

I'll go with a top view of someone wearing a knit hat and carrying an Egyptian scroll. Or a tassel and a blue ribbon from the county fair?