A great deal of what happens in London will be driven by scrimmyshenanigans with the Pattern Dance marks in the SD. The current set up, which I talk about in the Blues Pattern Dance thread (the Pattern Dance for the SD for Juniors)
This is just too tempting, and since there is no audio reply for the SD, methods of successfully challenging T calls (for key points which were done correctly, but the timing was off) really don't exist.It's probably not kosher to reply to my own thread, but getting a Y for all key points gives you a base score of 7.0 for one Blues segment, while getting N or T for all 3 key points gives you a base score of 3.0. Consequently, you can lose 8.0 points total for not getting any of your key points right.
I'm very nervous about that for this season, and for that matter, for next season, since both the Yankee Polka and the Finnstep are such fast tempo dances.
2012 was their last World medal IMO. With Worlds in Canada Weaver & Poje are a lock for atleast bronze, with a chance at silver, if they dont blow it. Then with the Olympics being in Russia the Russian dance teams will be moved into contention too as we head towards there.
W/P are locks for bronze at Worlds as will be held in Canada ( V/M, D/W , W/P or in any order) and w/ the European Championships the determining factor
where P/B and the Russian ice dancers will fare at the Olympics
We will see what happens but I think they would have been wise to turn pro after Nice. Their bronze was a sort of career achievement award and bravery award for her skating with a broken nose, and of course being sentimental favorites being at home and having thrown the bronze away the previous year. Many thought W&P outskated them even there. W&P are improving all the time while P&B have likely already peaked. That is why with Worlds in Canada there is no way IMO P&B stay ahead. I doubt P&B will even come out ahead in their first grand prix meeting, setting the tone for the season. By Sochi if they are still around they will be down in about 6th behind the top 3 NA teams and atleast 2 Russian teams. They will still be ahead of the Shibutanis probably, and maybe the Italians, but that is it.
Actually, I'm very curious about CoC. W/P will be on their THIRD international event at that point, P/B their first. W/P, with judging feedback and closer understanding of the level concerns, should be outpointing them by now. P/B should catch up of course: the GPF will be telling.
It'll be interesting to see what happens this season. I don't know if W/P are a "lock" for bronze just because Worlds are in Canada. Yes it improves their chances, but if it were to happen, and V/M and D/W continue as #1 and #2, that would mean another all-North American podium, which would be controversial. I think that, more than homecourt advantage, what works in W/P's favor is many people feel they should have won the bronze in both 2011 *and* 2012, so there's a feeling they're overdue.
We shall see. As usual, I think a lot will depend on the programs. I have my doubts about W/P's approach this year. They said they decided on the style of dance (contemporary) before choosing music. That feels like a rather academic approach. To me, the program should be inspired by the music, rather than the music serving as a vehicle for the dance. But, it may be great; we won't know till we see it.
I do agree that P/B may have peaked. But it's clear they have many supporters in the judging/international community. For those who want to see a European team on the podium, P/B are the standardbearers. I think they will continue as such and will continue to be a factor internationally until another European team convincingly passes them. Many think I/K or B/S will be that team, but I'm not too certain.
I realize that a lot of people were impressed with W/P's Je Suis Malade (I thought it was overwrought, but to each their own), and they are a team on the way up - but they still have work to do. I don't think they were robbed in 2012; P/B were better. I have repressed all memories of 2011 so I can't say if the Shibs should have come out ahead. Meanwhile, it's worth remembering that none of the top teams faced as many challenges as P/B did last year (well, possibly V/M, one never knows how truthful they are re Tessa's health). P/B had a forced coaching and location change in the off-season, were quite unlucky with their GP assignments, then Fabian got bronchitis - which was no help to their GP performances - and then Nathalie's broken nose before Worlds. That they were able to keep skating at a high standard despite all that is a testament to their strength, and I think that's something people should keep in mind.
Re W/P, I think they are still in search of their identity as performers - though in all fairness, that can be said of quite a few teams.
I'm not gonna say W/P were robbed, bu the points gap was much larger than it should've been. Their PCS were staggeringly high for what was a solid but not spectacular skate (they were shaky in the SD). And while I recognze that we should be somewhat sympathetic to their season, I'm gonna argue that the judges were equally sympathetic and it showed in the marking.
This past season really does feel like a breakthrough for W/P the way the 08/09 "Samson and Delilah" season was for D/W, and we know where that went.
Dance PCS are generally too high across the board... people like Dai, Patrick Chan, S/S and Carolina Kostner can only watch and weep. And anyway the judges owed P/B, they were underrated for years and didn't really get much love until they were the official French number 1s.
So W/P will become an overscored team with ugly-but-difficult lifts and boring FD music?This past season really does feel like a breakthrough for W/P the way the 08/09 "Samson and Delilah" season was for D/W, and we know where that went.
There is just a wild overestimation of the Russian teams technical abilities. Maybe I/K didn't try that hard at WTT but they did very poor - which was not so far off from some of their GP event appearences. And B/S came in last in the GPF because of TES. I/K still have the same coaches but B/S have changed coaches so maybe things will change. But I definitely see P/B staying ahead of the Russian teams even if they fall behind W/P and S/S as US team number 2 can be very close and was certainly ahead of B/S in the GP in 2011.
All North American Ice Dance podiums at worlds in 2013 and Olympics 2014 is very very likely because that is where things are happening in a positive direction for Ice Dance and where the most talent is. Weaver and Poje were in the Shibutani position in 2012 worlds but P/B did not make a mistake. I think judges like in 2011 would have been very happy to have an all North American podium. The Sochi Olympics are almost guaranteed to have all North American podium.
Last edited by gmyers; 09-09-2012 at 04:43 PM.
ETA: With W/P - one of the reasons they were successful last year was that it was their first year where they were consistent throughout the year. If the consistency remains this year - we may be looking at a North American podium for Sochi....my two cents...but then we have to factor in the "Igor" politicking....
Last edited by heyhey; 09-09-2012 at 05:53 PM.
Well, I love C/L and everyone knows it by now..but while there may be 2 Carmens at Finlandia..there is no real head to head competition between the two couples..and I have to say, I've had a bit of a sinking feeling about the number of program "coincidences" C/L have had in the last few years...If it's a tactic ( and I don't know if it is )..but if it is , I think they can only lose in the comparison.
I'm really nervous about the SDs now that Doris has pointed out that the judges have no sound playback.. yet they're going to make more of an issue of timing than previously ?..not a promising scenario..
I truly don't know what to think about P/B's programs...I'm not being thrilled with anticipation. And no , I don't think their marks were justified at last year's worlds, in light of the performances they delivered.
In spite of last year's travails , for me, their year of really horrendous bad luck was 2011... They had just a fabulous presentation..the two programs, the costumes..I thought all year they should have been a shoo-in for a medal..then , disaster. Their last year's programs, I thought ,were a step backwards..and just on paper , I can't feel that this year's presentation is an improvement.
Of course everything comes down to execution , I guess.. But I'm sure not excited by the prospect , so far.
Last edited by colleen o'neill; 09-09-2012 at 06:22 PM.