Ladies LP JGP Austria 2012

[Mirunna]

Radionova "If she can keep this up she’ll be the third Russian in a row to win the JGP Final and probably the third Russian in a row to win junior worlds too."

1. She can. She shows now about the same that she kept past season.

2. JGP Final - yes.

3. Junior Worlds - it is not so simple. There will be Lipnitskaia with improved jumping content (she needs the Junior Worlds for higher rating in her first Senior season - season of Olympics). And there are "GP Ladies" - Leonova, Makarova, Biryukova, Shelepen, Korobeynikova, Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva. Only two of them (Leonova, Makarova) are too old for Junior Worlds. If team for Euro/Worlds will be Leonova, Sotnikova, and (Tuktamysheva or Korobeynikova) (it is most probable) - (Korobeynikova or Tuktamysheva), Biryukova, Shelepen may also pretend to Junior Worlds.
At Senior Nationals past season Radionova was 5th, after Sotnikova, Lipnitskaia, Leonova, Makarova. Before Tuktamysheva (0,41 difference in score), and Korobeynikova, Shelepen, Biryukova - these three had not their best skating at these Nationals (more strictly - bad for them, 3 falls in Biryukova's FS for example).

I m sure Elena will receive high scores at nationals if she skates well considering she broke 120 points in her second long program since her debut on the international stage.(the same thing happened with Julia last season). If she keeps this consistency, she will have no problem surpassing Korobeynikova, Byriukova, Shelepen or even Makarova(who can't land a 3F or 3Lz cleanly). Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva are both question marks for me but if they skate well they will surpass Elena, at least this season. The same goes for Alena, IMO. My point is I can see Elena winning Jr worlds mostly because I don't see Sotnikova/Tuktamysheva going to Jr.Worlds.(most likely to worlds and even if they don't qualify, going back to Jr.Worlds will be a setback) Her main competitor will be Julia in my opinion

[AlexRus]

I m sure Elena will receive high scores at nationals if she skates well considering she broke 120 points in her second long program since her debut on the international stage.(the same thing happened with Julia last season). If she keeps this consistency, she will have no problem surpassing Korobeynikova, Byriukova, Shelepen or even Makarova(who can't land a 3F or 3Lz cleanly). Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva are both question marks for me but if they skate well they will surpass Elena, at least this season. The same goes for Alena, IMO. My point is I can see Elena winning Jr worlds mostly because I don't see Sotnikova/Tuktamysheva going to Jr.Worlds.(most likely to worlds and even if they don't qualify, going back to Jr.Worlds will be a setback) Her main competitor will be Julia in my opinion

Radionova broke 120 (score FS 121.75) at past Junior national. She was 2nd in FS, 3rd total.

Korobeynikova - it is not so simple. Her skating is very nice, PCS may be high (and it is interesting that before Euro-2012 nobody treated her as really high level skater).

We treat Lipnitskaia as skater of higher level than Radionova. Really nice skating, very high GOE. 3F+3T was not problem for her at the end of past season. This season we wait 3Lz+3T.

Biryukova, Shelepen - yes, they perhaps are lower than Radionova.

[burntBREAD]

Will Lipnitskaia be allowed to compete in Jr. Worlds if she does the Senior GP? I forgot if that was a rule that was passed or not.

[FSGMT]

Will Lipnitskaia be allowed to compete in Jr. Worlds if she does the Senior GP? I forgot if that was a rule that was passed or not.

yes, from the 2014/2015 season skaters will be banned from competing in the Senior GP before being 15, for now it's still allowed, so Julia will be able to compete at Junior Worlds. Julia vs Elena, what a great duel!

[AlexRus]

Will Lipnitskaia be allowed to compete in Jr. Worlds if she does the Senior GP? I forgot if that was a rule that was passed or not.

She will be allowed.
The rule refusing this was not adopted at last ISU congress.

[AlexRus]

yso Julia will be able to compete at Junior Worlds. Julia vs Elena, what a great duel!

Not so great, may be.
We've seen this duel 3 times past season (Cup of Russia IV, Russian National, Russian Junior National).
All the times Julia won both SP and FS with higher both TES and PCS (only Radionova's base value of elements was sometimes higher).

[FSGMT]

Not so great, may be.
We've seen this duel 3 times past season (Cup of Russia IV, Russian National, Russian Junior National).
All the times Julia won both SP and FS with higher both TES and PCS (only Radionova's base value of elements was sometimes higher).

But a year ago Lipnitskaya was an international medalist and the JGPF champion, the judges obviously gave her an enormous score for the PCS (and she deserved it!), Radionova was relatively unknown, and she's improved a lot in the last months: her 3-3 is now more stable, her spins are better, she's a lot more consistent and she has a more complete "package", it will depend just on how they will skate, there is not the big difference there was a year ago between these two fantastic girls...

[AlexRus]

But a year ago Lipnitskaya was an international medalist and the JGPF champion, the judges obviously gave her an enormous score for the PCS (and she deserved it!), Radionova was relatively unknown, and she's improved a lot in the last months: her 3-3 is now more stable, her spins are better, she's a lot more consistent and she has a more complete "package", it will depend just on how they will skate, there is not the big difference there was a year ago between these two fantastic girls...

Lipnitskaia a year before was so unknown as Radionova before her first JGP Event.

Difference in age between them is a half of year (Radionova is younger).
Radionova won Lipnitskaia at March 2009, when Lipnitskaia was girl from province, with poor conditions of training and not very good coach.
But from the end of March 2009 Lipnitskaia's coach is Eteri Tutberidze, and at early September 2009 Lipnitskaia won Radionova at Open Moscow.
After that both girls have permanent good progress, and Lipnitskaia wins always when they meet at same competition.

[FSGMT]

Lipnitskaia a year before was so unknown as Radionova before her first JGP Event.

Difference in age between them is a half of year (Radionova is younger).
Radionova won Lipnitskaia at March 2009, when Lipnitskaia was girl from province, with poor conditions of training and not very good coach.
But from the end of March 2009 Lipnitskaia's coach is Eteri Tutberidze, and at early September 2009 Lipnitskaia won Radionova at Open Moscow.
After that both girls have permanent good progress, and Lipnitskaia wins always when they meet at same competition.

We'll see, as I said, it depends on how they will skate... Figure skating is such an unpredictable sport!