That as you well know is a mighty big ifOriginally Posted by R.D.
There seems to be somewhat of a consensus that Natls is Ashley's to lose.
And that Agnes and Gracie will battle it out for Silver and a trip to Worlds.
It's a little more slippery than that and I would not be the least bit surprised if one of the other girls surprised us.
She said this in her own words last year...but this year? Well, I say too soon to know. Yes, the SP has great potential (and the FS too if Twitter comments are to be believed) but can she deliver under pressure?There seems to be somewhat of a consensus that Natls is Ashley's to lose.
And most importantly: at this year's Nationals she will be battling the Curse of the Defending Champion. Hasn't been broken since MK days
All true - but I was thinking about the rest of the podium too.
Is there a chance that Caroline, Mirai or Rachael can win Silver or Bronze?
I think there is a good chance one of them will shine at Natls this season.
I think there is a better than average chance that one or even two of the favorites will mess up.
It's early and I haven't seen much yet. Time will tell.
Last edited by janetfan; 09-25-2012 at 11:02 PM.
Well, in 2011, Alissa Czisny became the first two time National champion since Michelle Kwan. Maybe we'll see the first defending champion since Kwan this season. I kinda hope so.
^^Me too. Ashley is the first US champion who has delivered like a champion. I think that confidence boost is what she needed and now with the federation backing her, I think she has an even better chance doing well. She's the only one who I think has a great shot of defending her title if she stays healthy and focused.
Think about it: when was the last time a defending champion was in a good place competitively when nationals rolled around again? It's been a long time...
In 2008 Mirai won but it was in the middle of a transitional period for US skating. By 2009 she was suffering from a growth spurt and injury and didn't perform well.
In 2009 there were several young girls competing that year and Alissa was the only "lady among the girls," despite the fact she completely flubbed her LP. They gave her the title based on a solid SP and a prayer...she went to worlds that year and tanked. At 2010 nationals she was out of the race before the SP was over...
In 2010 Rachael won on paper but that night belonged to Mirai. In 2011 Rachael was hiding a stress fracture and had a rough performance at nationals...then that whole tibiagate thing at worlds.
In 2011 Alissa delivered her best programs to date and finally earned her title but she wasn't the same Alissa by the time the 2011-2012 season rolled around. She got lucky to get silver at nationals this year b/c she should have been 3rd or lower...but she was the best shot for worlds...or so we thought.
Now we've got Ashley. She won convincingly at nationals this year...what's going to happen at the 2013 nationals? My fingers are crossed for her.
I agree with you: if injuries stay away from her, she has a great chance to win again (it would be the first time since the Kween!), because she's the only "complete" lady... I'm really excited to see her new programs!!^^Me too. Ashley is the first US champion who has delivered like a champion. I think that confidence boost is what she needed and now with the federation backing her, I think she has an even better chance doing well. She's the only one who I think has a great shot of defending her title if she stays healthy and focused.
Think about it: when was the last time a defending champion was in a good place competitively when nationals rolled around again? It's been a long time...
In 2008 Mirai won but it was in the middle of a transitional period for US skating. By 2009 she was suffering from a growth spurt and injury and didn't perform well.
In 2009 there were several young girls competing that year and Alissa was the only "lady among the girls," despite the fact she completely flubbed her LP. They gave her the title based on a solid SP and a prayer...she went to worlds that year and tanked. At 2010 nationals she was out of the race before the SP was over...
In 2010 Rachael won on paper but that night belonged to Mirai. In 2011 Rachael was hiding a stress fracture and had a rough performance at nationals...then that whole tibiagate thing at worlds.
In 2011 Alissa delivered her best programs to date and finally earned her title but she wasn't the same Alissa by the time the 2011-2012 season rolled around. She got lucky to get silver at nationals this year b/c she should have been 3rd or lower...but she was the best shot for worlds...or so we thought.
Now we've got Ashley. She won convincingly at nationals this year...what's going to happen at the 2013 nationals? My fingers are crossed for her.
In my mind, there is only one question regarding Wagner, and "completeness" or "ladyness" has nothing to do with it:
When the chips are down, can you hit?
IF the answer is yes, then we *might* have a repeat champion. If not, well, like always, you leave the door wide open and chances are someone else WILL walk through. And, as mentioned, there are always pesky injuries around to spoil things.
Last edited by R.D.; 09-26-2012 at 10:20 AM. Reason: add emphasis
If Rachael somehow ends up on the podium it will have to been one of the worst skated Ladies event at Nationals in recent history. That's how badly the top skaters will have to bomb for Rachael to get anywhere near the podium.
I haven't seen Rachael this year but thought she was marked a bit harshly last season at Natls.
If she comes out of the SP close to the leaders she has a "skater's chance" in the LP.
It's interesting she is still competiting which shows a love for skating that I admire.
She might not be my favorite but she has always been a better than average competitor.
At Natls that counts for alot.
I agree with you: at the moment, Ashley, Mirai, Gao, Gold, Czisny (if she recovers well) and Agnes are all better than Rachael, especially if what we've seen it's true, Rachael winning a medal would mean most of them making bad mistakes in the SP (Flatt doesn't have a 3-3 and I don't think she's going to try the 3Lz in the SP and her spins usually receive low scores), and Rachael skating one of the best programs of her life, considering that her PCS in the FS is usually very low, now, and that she's not trying 7 triples anymore...
i agree with FSGMT. But it is admirable that Rachel is still trying while going to school. On another note, I think she looks a lot like a former US top notch skater - Karyn Cadavy.
Any one of them could win gold, silver or bronze, because they none of them are top tier skaters. They are all about the same. They are at the "Angela/Tonia K" level.
Since 2009, an American skater has come in the top 6 or at least did well at the Worlds--but it's never the same woman twice. Rachael, Mirai's short program lead, Alissa's top 5 finish, now Ashley's top 4. In the case of Mirai and Alissa, their follow-up year was horrible. They lost any momentum they had, at least as far as the worlds were concerned. If Ashley breaks the cycle, or if Gracie really is as good as the Russian girls, I'll eat my words, but I'll believe it when I see it. I imagine it will go like this:
2013-Caroline's comeback; comes in 4th in the Worlds.
2014-Gracie's year to shine; almost makes the podium at the Olympics
2015-Agnes gets it together, comes in 5th at the Worlds
2016-Rachael graduates and dedicates herself to skating; becomes the oldest woman to come in 6th
And on and on. . .
Never underestimate the current US Ladies uncanny abilty to mess up.
Also the controversy and perceived favoritism at US Natls - particularly with the Ladies event has been a real eye-opener the last several years.
There is still squabbling over the results in '08, '09, '10 and '11.
Last year might have been the first season in years when the podium did not cause a major uproar....but still there were plenty who disagreed with the placements.
Favorites have already been declared but I expect something less predictable will happen - with much howling about the judges/tech panel to follow.
This seems to be the new tradition at Natls........
Last edited by janetfan; 09-26-2012 at 09:56 PM.
Taking this into consideration, why hasn't the USFSA make sure that she got two events? Nagasu is simply an incredible skater. I think any country would jump at the chance to have her skate for them. Even Japan and Russia would find her to be an asset and their fields are deep. This isn't to say that I don't appreciate how great Ashley and Gracie are. It's just that I am not willing to overlook Mirai either.
The thing is, what I find absolutely stunning is how we gripe about how the wrong lady made the World Team! I wonder what would have happened if a committee of several respected GoldenSkate members got to appoint the team. Actually, I think this committee would have done a great job! We would have managed to have regain three spots and we might have even gotten a lady on the podium. The USFSA should just hand over the Nationals' judging and the World Team selection process to GoldenSkate. That won't only help improve the results at Worlds, it will also provide loads of entertainment and media coverage. All the passionate analyses of the flaws and foibles of various skaters will turn them into celebrities! And not only the skaters but their coaches as well. Cause we love to chat about the coaches as well ;-)Never underestimate the current US Ladies uncanny abilty to mess up.
Favorites have already been declared but I expect something less predictable will happen - with much howling about the judges/tech panel to follow.
This seems to be the new tradition at Natls........
Last edited by krenseby; 09-29-2012 at 02:26 PM.
Speaking of Mirai, wasn't she supposed to compete at Nebelhorn this week??
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