I don't see the point of worrying. They will skate how they will skate. It can be interesting to analyze trends (I do love data), but I think we're at the point of over-analyzing the situation. I too would love Ashley -- and all the other skaters -- for that matter to skate well and hope the scores reflect what they put out on the ice.Originally Posted by rkuang
But, overanalyzing figure skating is our raison d'etre :-) Who except us GSers could possibly put so much brainpower into all this? :-)
Yes, I knowTrust me, I've spent way too much time over-analyzing EVERYTHING including figure skating, but I guess I'm just growing weary of this particular analysis.
While I agree (except for the 4CC part - she was right to skip it, she needs rest), the opposite effect could also play in: her competitiveness will kick in and she will want to show the world that she is not "done" yet. Might be tougher to do that as the US champ (again), though.
Nothing I'd like more than for consistent, confident Wagner to reappear because then the only variable left would be Gold's SP performance...
Last edited by R.D.; 02-08-2013 at 07:28 PM. Reason: clarify
I think with Ashley it simply depends on how her training goes from here to worlds. If she manages to stay healthy and train well and not get fatigued then her fierceness has a good chance of coming out. If she doesn't, there's still a chance she will dig deep and find a way to pull it out but it's unlikely. Her performance at nationals was simply a reflection of her training, which got interrupted by injury and illness. So I think it will be quite difficult for her to get it back, especially as the injury is probably still needling her, but if she does she can come out fighting. I still think Ashley is quiet capable of getting herself into the right mind set. In a way, her last two performances have lessened the pressure on her. People expect less of her at worlds but they are still rooting for her so she can just go and do her best.
In my mind, the judges will be inclined to put Kostner, Kim, Asada and perhaps Elizaveta over Ashley but she can still make it impossible for them to do that if the others mess up and she doesn't. And there's a good chance of all these ladies messing up.
I highly doubt Ashley will put out the 3-3 at worlds and I don't think she should no matter what anyone says. If she hasn't already it's because it's not consistent and I find it highly unlikely that it will get there before worlds. I don't think she needs it as much as other people think she does. The skaters who are the most consistent with 3-3s have other drawbacks that take away from their competitiveness. Except for Kim. But I think Kim is still very much a question mark. She'll be rusty in terms of competing and we'll just have to see what her drive is these days.
Even if Ashley lands a 3-3 it will probably be URed or two-footed and then she might end up messing some other key jump so it won't make a bit of difference.
Last edited by Layfan; 02-09-2013 at 08:38 AM.
After Gold's performance at 4CC and Wagner's Nationals "win", is anyone still very confident the US will get three spots for the Olympics? The pressure will be very high at Worlds and Gold just seems so inconsistent. Wagner will be facing very stiff competition and I can't see her realistically hitting top 5 now.
Confident? No. It's gonna depend on which skaters show up to play.
We are not going to get that 3rd spot back at Worlds no matter who goes. It's the same reason why there has been no US Lady on the podium at Worlds since 2006. They are just not good enough.
On paper, it doesn't look good.
However, stranger things have happened in skating. It is ice, after all.
We're not good enough to realistically get 6 and 7, unless Akiko and one of the russians falter. If they both do bad, we could sneak in there.
The problem is Osmond. On home ice, she could be buoyed by the crowd and give a lights out performance. Then we have no chance, esp. if she ups her jump content and conditioning in the long.
I think Ashley should stick with her current jump layout. The 3F-3T and 2A-3T are not consistent jumps for her. If she goes for them, she is likely to underrotate or two-foot the attempts. At this point, I'm not expecting her to upgrade her technical content. I'm just hoping that she is over her injury and is able to get back to being consistent in her performances.
It is a risk that Team Wagner will have to assess in the next few weeks. She really, really needs the extra tech content with the increased level of competition at worlds this year, but if she is not consistent on said jumps, perhaps it might be better to stick to the status quo. But the problem is the SP. She cannot afford to mess that up, and with no 3-3 she could find herself near the middle of the pack (i.e. out of the final FS group and that means no high scores just like last year).
Ashley could well be one of the only (or the only?) skater not bringing a 3-3 or 2A-3T. And that's a problem.
After 4CC, I feel like we're back at square one. A couple months ago, things were looking promising to get the 3 spots back. Outstanding performances by Ashley to start the season; five different U.S. ladies medaling on the Grand Prix; two U.S. ladies making the GP final.
Now, who knows what will happen. I still believe Ashley can pull it together for a decent finish at Worlds, but by decent, I mean top 5 or 6. I don't know if the podium is in reach at this point, not with Yuna and Carolina back, and Mao upping the ante technically. Plus Akiko coming on strong again, and Kanako and Tukt as outside threats. Ashley really doesn't have the technical content to compete with any of them. Even Akiko's landed 2A-3T and 3T-3T this season, which Ashley hasn't, and Carolina doesn't have the content either but will beat Ashley in GOE!
As for Gracie, I've been worried about her nerves/inconsistency all season. I thought she had turned a corner after her LP at Nationals--I really thought she'd come in strong at 4CC and get a medal--but instead, a total meltdown. And this competition was nothing compared to how intense it will be at Worlds. Realistically, I think a top 10 or top 12 finish at Worlds is about the best she/we can expect. (Actually, that's the problem, it's impossible to know what to expect with Gracie.)
Especially now, after 4CC, I really wish Christina could have made the team. She clearly has the best international results of any U.S. lady this season except Ashley. That should count for something IMO.
But the team is Ashley and Gracie. And I'm not feeling positive about their chances right now.
Wait...BACK at square one??
As far as I'm concerned we never even left square one!
(ETA: a few seem to conveniently forget how poorly Gao did at GPF...and she struggled in the SP at TEB as well.)
Last edited by R.D.; 02-10-2013 at 11:43 PM.
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