State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

[R.D.]

I'm talking mainly from a theoretical standpoint. And as I mentioned, it is extremely unlikely, but she has come back from dark times before. Still, this would be her biggest obstacle yet.

If Wagner doesn't step it up and FINALLY add that 3-3 and 2A/3T she WILL be looking in her rear-view mirror quite a bit. Gold has beaten her twice in the LP now and is learning to compete...Gao is not quite at her level yet but she is improving by the day...and even her BFF Zawadzki could be a threat if she finds her mojo. I'm sure many of the other US women will be extra motivated by the 3rd spot and step up their game.

[chuckm]

A healthy Czisny whose skating consistently...after such a short recovery time from TWO consecutive injuries, an entire season off, and who has never been a particularly strong or consistent jumper or competitor and never had the toughest content, at the age of 27...I just don't see that happening. She may be gifted the 3rd spot but I doubt she will be threatening Ashley or whoever the 2nd member of the team may by - highly unlikely IMO. Can she even compete on the GP this season?

I think she might get two GPs as a former Worlds top 6 returning from injury. That's the only way she could get on the GP except as a host pick. When the old World ranking data is scrubbed next month, she will be in the mid-40s on that list and she isn't on the SB list because she didn't compete this season.

[pangtongfan]

I think a HEALTHY Czisny v2.0 is the biggest threat to the skater pool gunning for that third spot and may even have Wagner looking in her rear view. But, given that it's an Olympic year, an even-numbered year at that, I don't think such a threat will materialize.

The dark horse at this point is probably Hicks.

Meh I think you overrate Czisnys potential at this point. After the embarassment of the 2012 World she will not be a USFSA favorite anymore, even if she comes back skating well, especialy after being out of competition awhile. Wagner who now garners alot of USFSA favor will have to skate most of the program on her dress to lose to her. Add to all that even at her best she is weaker technically than pretty much all the top 10 Americans now, atleast as far as jumps (Wagner with her so called limited content has a harder jump layout and stronger jumps than Czisny), is very inconsistent, is too slow and cautious to force the judges hand to give her the biggest PCS if they dont want. Could she get the 3rd spot. I guess, but she would need the skate of her life at this point. If the others in contention for it skate well themselves they wont have to worry much about Czisny.

[R.D.]

If the others in contention for it skate well themselves they wont have to worry much about Czisny.

That's pretty much it in a nutshell

I will not count out Czisny completely simply because she has defied expectations 2x already when just about everyone thought she was done for.

[delray1977]

I"m sorry If I sound like I'm being harsh but alot of people complained about Czisny's nerves when I think the real problem was that her technique was actrocious, and I think thats what lead to her hip giving out on her.

[tulosai]

Gao is a stronger choice than Nagasu at this point I would say, Mirai just isn't the same skater she was 4 years ago, I think she peaked at a young age, she's getting better now, but IMO it might have been too little, too late - her speed has suffered, she keeps getting dinged with URs, her body type has changed significantly which makes everything look more labored, she's still not all that consistent even ignoring URs, 3-3 and 2a-3t aren't super solid elements for her. If Zawadzki is more consistent in the coming season I also think she'd be a very strong choice for the 3rd spot, so really, I'd say 1.) Christina 2.) Agnes and 3.) Mirai/Alissa for that 3rd spot at this point.

Same though I love Mirai so this is very hard for me to admit even to myself. I do think she unfortunately peaked at 16, and that is just how it goes sometimes. I will always lurve her, though, and at this point I've learned never to write anyone who is still competing off entirely-even in the past, say, 3 years there have been several people I thought were probably done who them made huge turn arounds (Kostner and Wagner being the 2 most obvious examples but not the only ones). Mirai may surprise us yet.

[Puchi]

It's a bit sad to see that, despite her clear efforts to improve in the last couple of seasons, nobody has even named Caroline Zhang as a contender. Is she done with skating?

[chuckm]

I"m sorry If I sound like I'm being harsh but alot of people complained about Czisny's nerves when I think the real problem was that her technique was actrocious, and I think thats what lead to her hip giving out on her.

That's part of the problem, and the other part is that she is so darned slow. She takes so long to set up a jump that by the time she gets into it she has slowed to a crawl---that in itself causes jumps to fail.

Her spins and spiral are beautiful to look at, but they also put a strain on her hip joint and may have played a role in the injury. That may be why she didn't experience pain for quite a while after the labrum had begun to tear. She was hyperextending the joint for so many years with those spin positions that she was used to a degree of looseness in the hip.

Czisny turns 26 this spring. I can't imagine that she would be able to correct her jump technique after all the years she's skated (she skated in her first Senior nationals in 2002), nor would she be able to upgrade her jumps. It may also be that she won't be able to do all those spectacular spins that kept her TES and PCS scores afloat. That's why I'm somewhat skeptical about her returning to competition.

[mskater93]

It's a bit sad to see that, despite her clear efforts to improve in the last couple of seasons, nobody has even named Caroline Zhang as a contender. Is she done with skating?

Still too many weaknesses in her skating.

Silverlake: why are you saying "whoever is second in the US"? Gold has outskated Wagner in 2 straight long programs and is learning (and quite quickly!) to deal with the pressure of international competition. She could have completely given up on the 3T in the SP or fallen on it since it was a little short, but she went for it and managed to stay upright with a "<" and a lapse on the FCSp to only garner a L2. She skated a near-clean LP with some quality errors in some of the jumps (and that downright scary 2A that nearly crashed into the boards) and scored a 125 which could have been a 130+ if totally clean (4 elements netted negative GOEs). Assuming Gold gets better choreo next season (which I suspect she will), if Gold can harness her SP skills when it counts and clean up the quality errors in the LP, it could be Gold as your Nationals Champion and "whoever is second in the US" (99% likely Wagner) with a third candidate of Hicks, Gao, Wang, Nagasu, Zawadski.

[drivingmissdaisy]

If Wagner doesn't step it up and FINALLY add that 3-3 and 2A/3T she WILL be looking in her rear-view mirror quite a bit. Gold has beaten her twice in the LP now and is learning to compete...Gao is not quite at her level yet but she is improving by the day...and even her BFF Zawadzki could be a threat if she finds her mojo. I'm sure many of the other US women will be extra motivated by the 3rd spot and step up their game.

I don't think get enough runout for a 3/3 with a toe; maybe she should train the 3F-3R combo. Or a 2A-3R. I know most people UR 3R combos badly but I don't see how she is going to be able to do a 3F-3T if she isn't even able to get the 3T rotated on a 2A-3T. Alternatively, she could plan a 6 triple program but put her money jumps (3F, 3R, 2A, and the 3 jump combo) in the 2nd half of her program.

[silverlake22]

Ashley's 3lo is really gorgeous, could she ever try for 3lo-3t?

[R.D.]

In the post Kwan era, US ladies skaters have never been able to raise their World standing in multiple trips to worlds with only one exception; Czisny improving from her 11th place finish in 2009 to 5th in 2011 (given that was not a consecutive trip). Given Wagner's drop from 4th to 5th is less precipitous than the others, but it's still a drop nonetheless.

[Jammers]

In the post Kwan era, US ladies skaters have never been able to raise their World standing in multiple trips to worlds with only one exception; Czisny improving from her 11th place finish in 2009 to 5th in 2011 (given that was not a consecutive trip). Given Wagner's drop from 4th to 5th is less precipitous than the others, but it's still a drop nonetheless.

The competition was much tougher this year at Worlds then last season.

[chuckm]

The competition was much tougher this year at Worlds then last season.

It sure was. Just the return of Kim would have pushed Ashley down one place. Then there was the revitalization of Asada, who was 6th last year, while Leonova and Suzuki dropped way down.

[pangtongfan]

Poor Ashley, her best shot to medal at a Worlds or Olympics this quad was likely last year. She might get another crack at the 2015 Worlds if she hangs around, or even the 2014 Worlds depending who doesnt go, but the younger talents who finished 6-10 at Worlds last year might well have improved further by then, and are all likely to sweep past her at some point.