State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season | Page 35 | Golden Skate

State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Let's hope not--Nats isn't so far away that she can water down her training.

At the same time it would be a REALLY BAD idea to rush back into training after something like that because it may take longer to heal (and you don't want to risk further damage).
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
At the same time it would be a REALLY BAD idea to rush back into training after something like that because it may take longer to heal (and you don't want to risk further damage).

Agreed--that's why I hope her injury isn't so severe that it'll put her off training and cause regression. Of course, in the case that it is serious, it would be much better to give it a rest until the danger is gone, and I doubt that Nicks would let her train on injury when so much this season hinges on her health--Worlds in particular, where she stands a very good chance of medaling.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Now that GPF is done and Nationals is likely the next competition, here's a round up of scores among the U.S. Ladies (senior only domestically, so I'll include junior scores here too).

But for the sake of not having too long of a thread. I'll do GP series here. Then Senior B/JGP in a separate thread.



GP Series Overall

Ashley Wagner 190.63 -TEB
Ashley Wagner 188.37 -SA
Ashley Wagner 181.93 - GPF
Mirai Nagasu 176.68 - NHK
Gracie Gold 175.03 - COR
Christina Gao 174.25 - SA
Agnes Zadwadzki 166.61 - COR
===median =====
Christina Gao 165.74
Mirai Nagasu 163.46 - COC
Agnes Zawadzki 160.37 - NHK
Christina Gao 154.54 - GPF
Gracie Gold 151.57 - SC
Caroline Zhang 149.87 - SC
Caroline Zhang 138.21 - COR


GP Series SP
Ashley Wagner 66.04 (34.95; 31.49) - GPF
Ashley Wagner 63.09 (32.52; 30.57) - TEB
Gracie Gold 62.16 (34.92; 27.24) – COR
Mirai Nagasu 61.18 (32.36; 28.82) - NHK
Ashley Wagner 60.61 (30.58; 30.03) - SA
Agnes Zawadzki 60.18 (33.01; 27.17) - COR
Mirai Nagasu 59.76 (31.04; 28.72 ) – COC
======median ========
Christina Gao 56.63 (31.01; 25.62) –SA
Agnes Zadwadzki 55.02 (27.73; 27.29) - NHK
Caroline Zhang 52.97 (27.67; 25.30) -SC
Christina Gao 52.25 (26.48; 26.07) - TEB
Gracie Gold 52.19 (27.53; 25.66) - SC
Christina Gao 48.56 (22.30; 26.26) - GPF
Caroline Zhang 46.15 (21.84; 24.31) - COR

GP Series SP TES
Ashley Wagner 35.95 - GPF
Gracie Gold 34.92 – COR
Agnes Zawadzki 33.01 - COR
Ashley Wagner 32.52 - TEB
Mirai Nagasu 32.36 - NHK
Mirai Nagasu 31.04 – COC
Christina Gao 31.01 –SA
======median ========
Ashley Wagner 30.58 - SA
Agnes Zawadzki 27.73 - NHK
Caroline Zhang 27.67 - SC
Gracie Gold 27.53 - SC
Christina Gao 26.48 - TEB
Christina Gao 22.30 - GPF
Caroline Zhang 21.84 - COR

GP Series SP PCS
PCS
Ashley Wagner 31.49 - GPF
Ashley Wagner 30.57 - TEB
Ashley Wagner 30.03 - SA
Mirai Nagasu 28.82 - NHK
Mirai Nagasu 28.72 – COC
Agnes Zawadzki 27.29 - NHK
Gracie Gold 27.24 - COR
=====median =========
Agnes Zawadzki 27.17 - COR
Christina Gao 26.26 - GPF
Christina Gao 26.07 - TEB
Gracie Gold 25.66 - SC
Christina Gao 25.62 –SA
Caroline Zhang 25.30 - SC
Caroline Zhang 24.31 - COR


GP Series FS
Ashley Wagner 127.76 (63.83; 63.93) - SA
Ashley Wagner 127.54 (62.91; 64.63) - TEB
Christina Gao 117.62 (60.64; 56.98) -SA
Mirai Nagasu 115.50 (56.36; 59.14) - NHK
Ashley Wanger 115.49 (54.93; 62.56) - GPF
Gracie Gold 112.87 (54.77; 58.10) – COR
Christina Gao 112.16 (57.25; 54.91) - TEB
====median ==========
Agnes Zawadzki 106.43 (51.10; 55.33) - COR
Agnes Zawadzki 105.35 (51.61; 54.74) - NHK
Christina Gao 105.98 (55.90; 51.08) - GPF
Mirai Nagasu 103.70 (45.89; 57.81) - COC
Gracie Gold 99.38 (48.02; 51.36) - SC
Caroline Zhang 96.90 (46.96; 49.94) - SC
Caroline Zhang 92.06 (48.57; 43.49) - COR


GP Series FS TES
Ashley Wagner 63.83 – SA
Ashley Wagner 62.91 – TEB
Christina Gao 60.63 -SA
Christina Gao 57.25 - TEB
Mirai Nagasu 56.36 - NHK
Christina Gao 55.90 - GPF
Ashley Wagner 54.94 - GPF
=====median =========
Gracie Gold – 54.77 - COR
Agnes Zawadzki 51.61- NHK
Agnes Zawadzki 51.10 - COR
Gracie Gold 48.92 - SC
Caroline Zhang 48.57 - COR
Caroline Zhang 46.96 - SC
Mirai Nagasu - 45.89 - COC


GP Series FS PCS
Ashley Wagner 64.63 - TEB
Ashley Wagner 63.93 - SA
Ashley Wagner 62.56 - GPF
Mirai Nagasu 59.14 - NHK
Gracie Gold 58.10 - COR
Mirai Nagasu 57.81 - COC
Christina Gao 56.98 -SA
=====median =========
Agnes Zawadzki 55.33 - COR
Christina Gao 54.91 - TEB
Agnes Zawadski 54.74 - NHK
Gracie Gold 51.36 - SC
Christina Gao 51.08 - GPF
Caroilne Zhang 49.94- SC
Caroline Zhang 43.49 - COR
 
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R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Interesting. Thanks for putting that list together.

Now, I want you guys to take a look at something. Those who think Wagner is unbeatable nationally:

Ashley Wagner 181.93 - GPF
Mirai Nagasu 176.68 - NHK
Gracie Gold 175.03 - COR
Christina Gao 174.25 - SA

Nether Nagasu nor Gold were perfect at their events and they're only 5 pts off Wagner's GPF score. Meaning, should Wagner have a repeat of GPF at Nationals (let's hope not, but you never know), and Gold and/or Nagasu hits that night, Wagner could definitely find herself 2nd or perhaps even 3rd. If Wagner messes up the SP in addition, the other two can probably beat her even with a mistake of their own. I think it's safe to say Gao is probably out of reach since SA was her absolute best and she has not been able to match that since. Even if she does match SA, Wagner would probably have to melt down for Gao to have any chance of overtaking her.
 
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Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Here are the senior B scores. One must wonder, why the heck did they give assignments to skaters who were on the GP series? Was there nobody else they could send?

Obviously inflated (Agnes Z. getting the highest PCS out of those on senior B competitions is a bit laughable), but here they are for the record.

Senior B Overall

Agnes Zawadzki 172.95 – U.S. Int’l Classic
Gracie Gold 171.15 – U.S. Int’l Classic
MIrai Nagasu 163.09 – Finlandia Trophy
Caroline Zhang 124.13 – Nebelhorn Trophy

Senior B SP
Agnes Zawadzki 65.25 (35.44; 29.80) – U.S. Int’l Classic
Gracie Gold 59.37 (29.97; 29.40) – U.S. Int’l Classic
Mirai Nagasu 52.75 (26.20; 27.55) – Finlandia Trophy
Caroline Zhang 45.43 (22.49; 22.94) – Nebelhorn Trophy

Senior B SP TES
Agnes Zawadzki 35.44 – U.S. Int’l Classic
Gracie Gold 29.97 – U.S. Int’l Classic
Mirai Nagasu 26.20 – Finlandia Trophy
Caroline Zhang 22.59 – Nebelhorn Trophy

Senior B SP PCS
Agnes Zawadzki – 29.80 U.S. Int’l Classic
Gracie Gold – 29.40 U.S. Int’l Classic
Mirai Nagasu – 27.55 Finlandia Trophy
Caroline Zhang- 22.95 – Nebelhorn Trophy

Senior B FS
Gracie Gold 111.78 (54.92; 57.86) – U.S. Int’l Classic
Mirai Nagasu 110.34 (54.07; 57.27) – Finlandia Trophy
Agnes Zawdzki 107.71 (50.58; 58.13) – U.S. Int’l Classic
Caroline Zhang 78.70 (39.13; 42.57) – Nebelhorn Trophy

Senior B FS TES
Gracie Gold 54.92 – U.S. Int’l Classic
Mirai Nagasu 54.07 – Finlandia Trophy
Agnes Zawdzki 50.58 – U.S. Int’l Classic
Caroline Zhang 39.14 – Nebelhorn Trophy

Senior B PCS
Agnes Zawadzki 57.27 – U.S. Int’l Classic
Gracie Gold 57.86 – U.S. Int’l Classic
MIrai Nagasu – 58.13 – Finlandia Trophy
Caroline Zhang 42.57 – Nebelhorn Trophy
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Next set of data: The JGP.

The data is quite interesting, as it reveals two possible spoilers at Nationals: Hannah Miller and Angela Wang. Hannah Miller currently not have the technical content that Angela does, but she has been relatively consistent relative to Wang. It's worth noting that Miller has not been off-the-podium for ANY segment of the three JGP events she's entered in, while Wang has had to play catch up at two of her events due to poor SP scores. Hannah has also been working on various 3-3s, including 3L-3L, so it will be interesting to see if she does them at Nationals. Angela and Hannah are fairly close in PCS.

Leah Keiser could also be a spoiler, but she's so hot and cold. She show a flash of brilliance at JGP Turkey producing wht is now the fourth highest score (it was second until JGPF) in the FS and still has the highest TES in the JGP among the U.S. ladies with her program in Turkey. However, when you consider the fact that she also has two of the lowest scores in the FS (only Ashley Cain has done worse); you have to wonder which skater will show up at Nationals.

Samantha Cesario is also someone to watch. She only has one event factored, since she did so poorly in Germany due to an injury. But she did quite well at sectionals, so it will be interesting to see how she does.

The third spot for junior worlds (that is, if it is available if Gracie Gold doesn't end up getting it as some sort of consolation prize) is going to be a bloodbath.

***

JGP Overall
Hannah Miller 168.41 - JGPF
Angela Wang 162.65 - Croatia
Angela Wang 162.05- JGPF
Hannah Miller 158.52 - Austria
Samantha Cesario 157.72 Austria
Leah Keiser 156.33 - Turkey
Courtney Hicks 153.77 - USA
Hannah Miller 153.21 - Croatia
Angela Wang 150.40 - USA
Barbie Long 147.19 - Croatia
Kiri Baga 142.22 - USA
Courtney Hicks 141.38 - Croatia
Leah Keiser 141.15 – Germany
Vanessa Lam 140.89 - France
Leah Keiser 137.44 - JGPF
Ashley Cain 136.51 - Fance

JGP Short Program
Hannah Miller 59.18 (33.84; 26.22) - JGPF
Angela Wang 58.47 (34.93; 23.54) - Croatia
Hannah Miller 55.47 (31.97; 23.50) - Austria
Leah Keiser 55.14 (31.97; 23.17) – Germany
Samantha Cesario 54.38 (32.69; 21.77) - Austria
Barbie Long 52.24 (30.38; 21.86) - Slovenia
Courtney Hicks 51.36 (27.85; 23.51) -USA
Hannah Miller 51.33 (27.88; 23.45) – Croatia
Ashley Cain 51.31 (28.48; 22.83) - France
Angela Wang 51.16 (26.24; 24.92) - JGPF
Leah Keiser 50.70 (28.81; 21.89) - Turkey
Vanessa Lam 48.40 (26.92; 22.48) - France
Kiri Baga 47.80 (25.88; 22.92) - USA
Leah Keiser 47.23 (25.86; 22.37) - JGPF
Courtney Hicks 46.63 (24.34; 22.29) - Slovenia
Angela Wang 44.71 (23.34; 21.37) - USA
Samantha Cesario 42.36 (21.36; 22.00) - Germany

JGP SP TES
Angela Wang 34.93 - Croatia
Hannah Miller 33.84 – JGPF
Samantha Cesario 32.69 - Austria
Hannah Miller 31.97 – Austria
Leah Keiser 31.97 – Germany
Barbie Long 30.38 – Slovenia
Ashley Cain 28.48 - France
Hannah Miller 27.88 – Croatia
Leah Keiser 28.81 - Turkey
Courtney Hicks 27.85 – USA
Vanessa Lam 26.92 - France
Angela Wang 26.24 – JGPF
Kiri Baga 25.88 - USA
Leah Keiser 25.86 - JGPF
Courtney Hicks 24.34 – Slovenia
Angela Wang 23.35 - USA
Samantha Cesario 21.36 – Germany

JGP SP PCS
Hannah Miller 26.22 – JGPF
Angela Wang 24.24 - JGPF
Angela Wang 23.54 – Croatia
Hannah Miller 23.45 – Croatia
Courtney Hicks 23.51 - USA
Hannah Miller 23.50 – Austria
Leah Keiser 23.17 – Germany
Kiri Baga 22.92 - USA
Ashley Cain 22.83 – France
Vanessa Lam 22.48 – France
Leah Keiser 22.37 – JGPF
Courtney Hicks 22.29 - Slovniea
Samantha Cesario 22.00 - Germany
Leah Keiser 21.89 - Turkey
Barbie Long 21.86 - Slovenia
Samantha Cesario 21.77 – Austria
Angela Wang 21.37 – USA


JGP FS
Angela Wang 110.89 (58.90; 51.99) - JGPF
Hannah Miller 109.23 (56.16; 53.07) - JGPF
Angela Wang 105.69 (55.79; 49.90) - USA
Leah Keiser 105.63 (58.04; 47.59) - Turkey
Angela Wang 104.18 (55.67; 48.51) - Croatia
Samantha Cesario 103.34 (55.85; 47.49) - Austria
Hannah Miller 103.05 (54.57; 48.48) - Austria
Courtney Hicks 102.41 (51.89; 50.52) - USA
Hannah Miller 101.88 (54.56; 47.32) - Croatia
Barbie Long 94.95 (51.30; 43.65) - Slovenia
Courtney Hicks 94.75 (49.51; 45.24) - Slovenia
Vanessa Lam 99.49 (48.65; 45.84) - France
Kiri Baga 94.42 (46.71; 47.71) - USA
Leah Keiser 90.21 (46.21; 44.00) - JGPF
Leah Keiser 86.01 (43.96; 44.05) - Germany
Ashley Cain 85.20 (42.34; 46.86) - France


JGP FS TES
Leah Keiser 58.04 - Turkey
Angela Wang 58.90 – JGPF
Hannah Miler 56.15 – JGPF
Angela Wang 55.79 –USA
Angela Wang 55.67 – Croatia
Samantha Cesario 55.85 – Austria
Hannah Miller 54.57 – Austria
Hannah Miller 54.56 – Croatia
Courtney Hicks 51.89 – USA
Barbie Long 51.30 – Slovenia
Courtney Hicks 49.51 – Slovenia
Vanessa Lam 48.65 – Grance
Kiri Baga – 46.71 – USA
Leah Keiser 46.21 – JGPF
Leah Keiser – Germany
Ashley Cain – 42.35 – France

JGP FS PCS
Hannah Miller 53.07 – JGPF
Angela Wang 51.99 – JGPF
Courtney Hicks 50.52 - USA
Angela Wang 49.90 – USA
Angela Wang 48.51- Croatia
Hannah Miller 48.48 – Austria
Kiri Baga 47.71 - USA
Leah Keiser 47.59 - Turkey
Samantha Cesario 47.49 - Austria
Hannah Miller 47.32 – Croatia
Ashley Cain 46.86 - France
Vanessa Lam 45.84 - France
Courtney Hicks 45.24 – Slovenia
Leah Keiser 44.05 – Germany
Leah Keiser 44.00 – JGPF
Barbie Long 43.65- Slovenia
 

Poodlepal

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 14, 2010
I think there needs to be one female skater who steps up and stays at the top for more than one season. It's been a merry-go-round since Kimmie Meisner, with a new "star" each year who burns out just as quickly. I would hope that the judges will hold up Ashley if she makes a couple of mistakes. Usually I am opposed to that sort of thing, but from what I've seen, newcomers usually don't get on the podium on their first try. There have been too many girls who have gotten up to 4th and 5th, then didn't go to world's the next year or fell apart in some other way.

2007--Kimmie, 4th, next year 7th or so
2008- Nobody did well
2009--Rachael 5th, then fell out of judges favor or really did go downhill, never that high again
2010--Mirai 4th at Olympics, choked at Worlds, never went to world's again
2011--Alissa--5th, but came in almost dead last the next year
2012--Ashley 4th--but what now?

I would not be surprised if Ashley is too hurt to go on. That fall looked bad. I would not be surprised to see it be Gracie Gold's year to come in 4th or 5th.
 

used2sk8

Rinkside
Joined
Nov 26, 2011
How about adding in the Sectional qualifiers:

SENIOR QUALIFIERS
Easterns Ladies 1-4: Samantha Cesario 163.53, Yasmin Siraj 151.35, Haley Dunne 139.69, Joelle Forte 136.47;
Mids Ladies 1-4: Ashley Cain 161.49, Becky Bereswill 149.44, Kiri Baga 141.42, Morgan Bell 133.06;
Pacs Ladies 1-4: Vanessa Lam 177.73, Courtney Hicks 161.72, Sophia Adams 131.49, Amanda Hofmann 122.29.

Even though these are domestic, take note of the winners! Vanessa had trouble in herc JGP but came back with 168.05 (113.44 in FS) at Regionals and the highest score again at Sectionals with 118.30 in the FS. Samantha and Ashley also stayed strong!
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
I'll wait for further word from Camp Wagner before I assume the worst, but at best she will likely lose 2-3 weeks of training time. Perhaps with the holidays around the corner, some of the time she would have taken off anyway, but I will not be expecting her at her best in Omaha, that's for sure. (Even if she was 100% I would say this, solely because she's defending champion)
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
And the final data set: Sectionals
Obviously scores here are not as comparable to the international scores, but it does give a good idea where some of the skaters may stand.


Overall:

Vanessa Lam 177.73
Samantha Cesario 163.53
Courtney Hicks 161.72
Ashley Cain 161.49
Yasmin Siraj 151.35
Becky Bereswill 149.44
Kiri Baga 141.42
Haley Dunne 139.69
Joelle Forte 136.47
Morgan Bell 133.06
Sophia Adams 131.49
Amanda Hofmann 122.29

SP
Vanessa Lam 59.43 (35.28; 24.15)
Haley Dunne 58.20 (33.50; 24.70)
Samantha Cesario 57.80 (33.35; 24.45)
Courtney Hicks 57.80 (35.60; 23.20)
Ashley Cain 55.83 (30.43;25.40)
Becky Bereswill 51.69 (27.89; 23.80)
Kiri Baga 51.06 (27.41; 23.65)
Morgan Bell 49.04 (25.89; 23.15)
Yasmin Siraj 48.88 (26.03; 22.85)
Joelle Forte 48.18 (28.13; 20.05)
Sophia Adams 46.33 (25.28; 21.05)
Amanda Hofmann 44.36 (25.31; 20.05)

SP TES
Courtney Hicks 35.60
Vanessa Lam - 35.28
Haley Dunne 33.50
Samantha Cesario 33.35
Ashley Cain 30.43
Joelle Forte 28.13
Becky Bereswill 27.89
Kiri Baga 27.41
Yasmin Siraj 26.03
Morgan Bell 25.89
Amanda Hofman 25.31
Sophia Adamas 25.28

SP PCS
Ashley Cain 25.40
Haley Dunne 24.70
Samantha Cesario 24.45
Vanessa Lam 24.15
Becky Bereswill 23.80
Kiri Baga 23.65
Courtney Hicks 23.20
Morgan Bell 23.15
Yasmin Siraj 22.85
Sophia Adams 21.05
Joelle Forte 20.05
Amanda Hoffman 20.05


FS
Vanessa Lam 118.30 (65.98; 53.32)
Samantha Cesario 105.73 (56.62; 49.11)
Ashley Cain 105.66 (55.46; 51.20)
Courtney Hicks 103.92 (56.90; 48.02)
Yasmin Siraj 102.47 (55.44; 47.03)
Becky Bereswill 97.75 (52.05; 45.70)
Kiri Baga 90.36 (46.66; 43.70)
Joelle Forte 88.29 (48.98; 40.31)
Sophia Adams 85.15 (39.05; 47.11)
Morgan Bell 84.02 (42.71; 41.31)
Haley Dunne 81.49 (37.78; 45.71)
Amanda Hofmann 77.93 (36.61; 41.32)

FS TES
Vanessa Lam 65.98
Courtney Hicks 56.90
Samantha Cesario 56.62
Yasmin Siraj 55.44
Ashley Cain 55.46
Becky Bereswill 52.05
Joelle Forte 48.98
Kiri Baga 46.66
Morgan Bell 42.71
Sophia Adams 39.05
Haley Dunne 37.78
Amanda Hofmann 36.61

FS PCS
Vanessa Lam 53.32
Ashley Cain 51.20
Samantha Cesario 49.11
Courtney Hicks 48.02
Sophia Adams 47.11
Yasmin Siraj 47.03
Haley Dunne 45.71
Becky Bereswill 45.70
Kiri Baga 43.70
Amanda Hofmann 41.32
Morgan Bell 41.31
Joelle Forte 40.31
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
How about adding in the Sectional qualifiers:

SENIOR QUALIFIERS
Easterns Ladies 1-4: Samantha Cesario 163.53, Yasmin Siraj 151.35, Haley Dunne 139.69, Joelle Forte 136.47;
Mids Ladies 1-4: Ashley Cain 161.49, Becky Bereswill 149.44, Kiri Baga 141.42, Morgan Bell 133.06;
Pacs Ladies 1-4: Vanessa Lam 177.73, Courtney Hicks 161.72, Sophia Adams 131.49, Amanda Hofmann 122.29.

Even though these are domestic, take note of the winners! Vanessa had trouble in herc JGP but came back with 168.05 (113.44 in FS) at Regionals and the highest score again at Sectionals with 118.30 in the FS. Samantha and Ashley also stayed strong!

Hi there, I just posted a full breakdown of the sectional scores...took me a while to do so.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
The data is quite interesting, as it reveals two possible spoilers at Nationals: Hannah Miller and Angela Wang. Hannah Miller currently not have the technical content that Angela does, but she has been relatively consistent relative to Wang. It's worth noting that Miller has not been off-the-podium for ANY segment of the three JGP events she's entered in, while Wang has had to play catch up at two of her events due to poor SP scores. Hannah has also been working on various 3-3s, including 3L-3L, so it will be interesting to see if she does them at Nationals. Angela and Hannah are fairly close in PCS.

Leah Keiser could also be a spoiler, but she's so hot and cold. She show a flash of brilliance at JGP Turkey producing wht is now the fourth highest score (it was second until JGPF) in the FS and still has the highest TES in the JGP among the U.S. ladies with her program in Turkey. However, when you consider the fact that she also has two of the lowest scores in the FS (only Ashley Cain has done worse); you have to wonder which skater will show up at Nationals.

I think these skaters are still shooting for 4th at best. This is definitely not a 2008 situation building in the background. I have not seen Miller (I remember Wang from last year, I believe), but both of their high scores seem in the league of Zawadzki/Gao which is one rung down from the elite (world team contender level). And even then that's considering their highest score. Their median scores would have them around the 6th-8th place level.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
So based on all this crazy number crunching, here's my thoughts on the field at nationals.


Contenders for Podium/World Team/ 4CC: Wagner, Nagasu, Gold, Gao and Zawadzki
** These five, of course, also happen to be our GP medalists as well.

** Wagner obviously is the front runner with the top three scores overall in the GP series. However, as RD said, we saw a bit of vulnerability in the GPF FS and Gold and Nagasu are not far behind and could give Wagner a run for her money if she has a bad night.

** Gold and Nagasu are likely the best contenders to ruin Wagner's ability to defend her title. Nagasu appears to be on an upward trajectory, having done OK at Finlandia, respectable at COC and solid at NHK. She seem to have benefited from not having that 4-hour commute to Frank Carroll this season. However her URs continue to be an issue and could factor in her changes. Gold, of course, has the technical goods including a 3F-3T; 3Z-3T and a 3F-1L-3S. However, she has only been able to hit all three at one competition, which was Skate Detroit, a summer competition. She also still needs to work on her packaging as well.

** I can see Gao sneaking on the podium (namely Pewter or bronze) if she skates like she did at SA and others makes mistakes. But she cannot mess up in the SP or she will be out of contention or at risk of finishing 5th for a fourth straight year. I can see Zawadzki being in medal position in the SP, but she'll have to continue work on the FS if she wants to improve on her bronze place finish last year.


Spoilers for the final group: Wang, Miller, and Cesario
** Miller, surprisingly, has been the most consistent out of this group, with three silver medals on the JGP circuit and top three finishes in EVERY segment in every competition she's competed in. The judges clearly have warmed up to her over the season, which you can see with her PCS scores jumping by several points between JGP Croatia and JGPF. She has said she is working on several 3-3s, including a 3L-3L.

**Wang is like Ashley Wagner's past as she has blown it in the SP (JGP USA + JGPF) but come back strong in the long. However if she can skate like she did in Croatia, I think she can sneak into the final group.

** Cesario did well in Austria, scoring a bronze medal and has the 4th highest FS and the third highest SP in the JGP circuit. She had a poor performance in Germany, but she WD due to injury, and I think her SP might be an outlier. She won her sectionals with a decent score in both segments.

** I do agree with R.D. that they will unlikely end up on the podium (1-4). I probably should clarify that when I said spoiler, I mean it as I did here, for the final group and maybe as and outside chance for pewter at best. But I think if they continue on their current path, they will make an easy case for a Junior Worlds assignment.

Big huge question marks: Lam, Keiser, Hicks, Cain, Baga, Siraj, Bereswill, Dunne, Zhang and Czisny
Basically, these folks are question marks as far as positions 7-12, i.e. the second group.

** Lam mystifies me. She skated great during the summer months, then turned in a poor JGP and then came back to win sectionals with the highest score out of all those who competed at sectionals. I have no idea of how she could do at Nationals.

** Keiser, as I mentioned in my JGP remarks, had a moment of brilliance in JGP Turkey, only to do poorly in the FS in JGP Germany and overall in JGPF. She has yet to get a 3Z-3T combo ratified, but she keeps trying it.

** Hicks has pretty much been in the middle of the pack as far as JGP scores. Her peak appeared to be JGP USA, where she finished second. She did poorly in her second event, where she was off the podium. However, her performance at sectionals was respectable. But it's clear that if she doesn't hit her jumps, there's not much to work with beyond that.

** Cain won her sectionals, but her jumps are iffy. She did poorly in JGP France, though it's clear that judges appreciate her components. The judges domestically do also; she had the second highest sectionals PCS in the SP and the second highest in the FS.

** Baga is someone that doesn't really have the jumps, but her packaging keeps her in the running. She managed a respectable top 10 finish last season because of this. However, now that she's doing pairs also, I'm not sure if she will move up that far up.

** Siraj is someone who has a ton of potential but we haven't seen it quite click totally. She had a great top 10 finish in 2011 only to finish in 15th a year later. She has been MIA until sectionals, where she finished second behind Cesario. She's had mixed international results -- she medaled in both her GP events in 2010, but finished second to last at the JGPF. In 2011, she finished 5th in her only JGP.

** Bereswill returns to Nationals after two years away. She was 13th at her last Nationals in 2010. Her score at sectionals was 22 points higher than her 2010 nationals score and would have put her in the running for the top 10 last year.

** Dunne had a surprise first place in the SP at sectionals with a respectable program that included a lovely triple lutz, which seems to be MIA in many SPs these days. However that followed with a very poor FS where she finished 5th in that segment. However, she does have all five triples (minus the Axel). If she gets it together in both programs, I could see her improving on her 16th place showing from last year and perhaps breaking the top 12.

** Zhang. Well given that I totally forgot to include her in my outlook, that should say something about my thoughts on her. She's done poorly in all her events this season, not breaking the 50+ mark in theSP or the 100+ mark in the FS. That said, no one expected Zhang to come back the way she did last season so we may be seeing another comeback from her. But she will have to do a lot more this year if she wants to maintain or improve on her 4th place finish from last season.

** Czisny. Well, you know what they say: "Out of sight, out of mind." Given that Nationals is her first competition, I have NO clue how she will do. In fact, as RD pointed out, I have no idea if she will even show given her injuries. If we go by past years, this is an "on" year for Czisny but I'm not sure if we can predict by past patterns here. She could finish anywhere, really. But given she finished 10th after two poor skates, I think she can do top 10 if she shows up.


Lucky to be at Nationals: Forte, Bell, Adams and Hofmann.

These are the folks that finished 4th in their respective sectionals.

** Forte finished top 10 int 2011 then fell down to 14th in 2012. She did not skate in any international events this season. She actually finished fourth in sectionals with a score similar to her nationals score, I'm not sure how realistic it is for her to move into the top 10.

** Bell and Adams return to Nationals after finishing 18th and 17th respectively. I don't expect huge improvement given the tough competition, but I hope they will do their best.

** Hofmann benefited from being at a less tough sectional. She actually finished sixth in her free skate, but had enough of a buffer in the SP to stay in the top 4.


So if I had to guess the result of nationals, it would be:

1.) Wagner
2.) Gold
3.) Nagasu
4.) Gao
5.) Zawadzki
6.) Miller
7.) Wang
8.) Lam
9.) Cesario
10.) Czsiny
11.)Zhang
12.) Keiser
13.) Hicks
14.) Cain
15.) Baga
16.) Dunne
17.) Siraj
18.) Bereswil
19.) Forte
20.) Bell
21.) Adams
22.) Hofmann
 
Last edited:

carriecmu0503

On the Ice
Joined
Jun 16, 2008
You have missed/ forgotten about Caroline Zhang.

So based on all this crazy number crunching, here's my thoughts on the field at nationals.


Contenders for Podium/World Team/ 4CC: Wagner, Nagasu, Gold, Gao and Zawadzki
** These five, of course, also happen to be our GP medalists as well.

** Wagner obviously is the front runner with the top three scores overall in the GP series. However, as RD said, we saw a bit of vulnerability in the GPF FS and Gold and Nagasu are not far behind and could give Wagner a run for her money if she has a bad night.

** Gold and Nagasu are likely the best contenders to ruin Wagner's ability to defend her title. Nagasu appears to be on an upward trajectory, having done OK at Finlandia, respectable at COC and solid at NHK. She seem to have benefited from not having that 4-hour commute to Frank Carroll this season. However her URs continue to be an issue and could factor in her changes. Gold, of course, has the technical goods including a 3F-3T; 3Z-3T and a 3F-1L-3S. However, she has only been able to hit all three at one competition, which was Skate Detroit, a summer competition. She also still needs to work on her packaging as well.

** I can see Gao sneaking on the podium (namely Pewter or bronze) if she skates like she did at SA and others makes mistakes. But she cannot mess up in the SP or she will be out of contention or at risk of finishing 5th for a fourth straight year. I can see Zawadzki being in medal position in the SP, but she'll have to continue work on the FS if she wants to improve on her bronze place finish last year.


Spoilers for the final group: Wang, Miller, and Cesario
** Miller, surprisingly, has been the most consistent out of this group, with three silver medals on the JGP circuit and top three finishes in EVERY segment in every competition she's competed in. The judges clearly have warmed up to her over the season, which you can see with her PCS scores jumping by several points between JGP Croatia and JGPF. She has said she is working on several 3-3s, including a 3L-3L.

**Wang is like Ashley Wagner's past as she has blown it in the SP (JGP USA + JGPF) but come back strong in the long. However if she can skate like she did in Croatia, I think she can sneak into the final group.

** Cesario did well in Austria, scoring a bronze medal and has the 4th highest FS and the third highest SP in the JGP circuit. She had a poor performance in Germany, but she WD due to injury, and I think her SP might be an outlier. She won her sectionals with a decent score in both segments.

** I do agree with R.D. that they will unlikely end up on the podium (1-4). I probably should clarify that when I said spoiler, I mean it as I did here, for the final group and maybe as and outside chance for pewter at best. But I think if they continue on their current path, they will make an easy case for a Junior Worlds assignment.

Big huge question marks: Lam, Keiser, Hicks, Cain, Baga, Siraj, Bereswill, and Dunne
Basically, these folks are question marks as far as positions 7-12, i.e. the second group.

** Lam mystifies me. She skated great during the summer months, then turned in a poor JGP and then came back to win sectionals with the highest score out of all those who competed at sectionals. I have no idea of how she could do at Nationals.

** Keiser, as I mentioned in my JGP remarks, had a moment of brilliance in JGP Turkey, only to do poorly in the FS in JGP Germany and overall in JGPF. She has yet to get a 3Z-3T combo ratified, but she keeps trying it.

** Hicks has pretty much been in the middle of the pack as far as JGP scores. Her peak appeared to be JGP USA, where she finished second. She did poorly in her second event, where she was off the podium. However, her performance at sectionals was respectable. But it's clear that if she doesn't hit her jumps, there's not much to work with beyond that.

** Cain won her sectionals, but her jumps are iffy. She did poorly in JGP France, though it's clear that judges appreciate her components. The judges domestically do also; she had the second highest sectionals PCS in the SP and the second highest in the FS.

** Baga is someone that doesn't really have the jumps, but her packaging keeps her in the running. She managed a respectable top 10 finish last season because of this. However, now that she's doing pairs also, I'm not sure if she will move up that far up.

** Siraj is someone who has a ton of potential but we haven't seen it quite click totally. She had a great top 10 finish in 2011 only to finish in 15th a year later. She has been MIA until sectionals, where she finished second behind Cesario. She's had mixed international results -- she medaled in both her GP events in 2010, but finished second to last at the JGPF. In 2011, she finished 5th in her only JGP.

** Bereswill returns to Nationals after two years away. She was 13th at her last Nationals in 2010. Her score at sectionals was 22 points higher than her 2010 nationals score and would have put her in the running for the top 10 last year.

** Dunne had a surprise first place in the SP at sectionals with a respectable program that included a lovely triple lutz, which seems to be MIA in many SPs these days. However that followed with a very poor FS where she finished 5th in that segment. However, she does have all five triples (minus the Axel). If she gets it together in both programs, I could see her improving on her 16th place showing from last year and perhaps breaking the top 12.


Lucky to be at Nationals: Forte, Bell, Adams and Hofmann.

These are the folks that finished 4th in their respective sectionals.

** Forte finished top 10 int 2011 then fell down to 14th in 2012. She did not skate in any international events this season. She actually finished fourth in sectionals with a score similar to her nationals score, I'm not sure how realistic it is for her to move into the top 10.

** Bell and Adams return to Nationals after finishing 18th and 17th respectively. I don't expect huge improvement given the tough competition, but I hope they will do their best.

** Hofmann benefited from being at a less tough sectional. She actually finished sixth in her free skate, but had enough of a buffer in the SP to stay in the top 4.


So if I had to guess the result of nationals, it would be:

1.) Wagner
2.) Gold
3.) Nagasu
4.) Gao
5.) Zawadzki
6.) Miller
7.) Wang
8.) Lam
9.) Cesario
10.) Keiser
11.) Hicks
12.) Cain
13.) Baga
14.) Dunne
15.) Siraj
16.) Bereswil
17.) Forte
18.) Bell
20.) Adams
21.) Hofmann
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
I still think Lam might have a hard time even making the JW team or the final flight for the FS at Nationals despite her huge sectionals score. I say this for a number of reasons, 1.) she has no 3-3, 2.) she flutzes, and 3.) her jumps are tiny and garner minimal GOE even when landed. Her 2a is pretty nice and can pick up some GOE points but that's about it, she's also very flexible with great spin positions, but her spins are also pretty slow. She does not do the 3s and her FS is fairly front-loaded, with her two biggest combinations coming at the very beginning, and although she goes for two 3lz and two 3f, between her flutz (which is quite obvious though it does not always get called domestically) and the jumps not getting much GOE anyways, it doesn't give her that much of an edge. Further, even domestically, her PCS haven't been huge, and internationally, they are quite mediocre. Hannah's success on the JGP is hurting Vanessa's chances to go to JW because although Hannah also has small jumps, she's more consistent (at least internationally), gets higher PCS (again internationally), and doesn't flutz. Lam skated a clean FS at her JGP in Austria last season and scored around 106, so clearly at junior internationals 177 is not going to happen her, barring huge improvement.

I'll be surprised if Kiri makes the top 10 this year, but she is rewarded for presentation when she skates well. At this point, I don't really think Lam, Cain, Baga, or Siraj are spoilers for the podium or even the final warmup most likely. I could be wrong, but with 5 or 6 (if Alissa competes) main contenders, on top of Wang, Miller, and Cesario, and Zhang just because after last season you never know what could happen, that's 9 or 10 skaters right there. Plus an "on" Keiser is capable of scoring well due to her content, which Lam, Cain, Baga, and Siraj don't have as of yet.

I think JW will likely be Miller, Wang, and Cesario, unless Cesario happens to do really well and get 4CCs or something, or Gold gets JW as a consolation prize. Otherwise Keiser and Hicks are the most likely choices, unless Barbie Long wins junior ladies convincingly, so the chances for Cain and Lam likely aren't that great, though you never know.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Indeed I did. Thanks for pointing it out; I've added her to my preview.

I think you may have left out Czisny as well (I believe she has a bye), but she is a massive question mark. We aren't even sure if she will show up or not but if she does, personally, I don't expect her to be in the mix. However, she does have a history of peaking "early" so perhaps with Nationals being her first competition, she could perhaps surprise IF she is in shape.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
I think you may have left out Czisny as well (I believe she has a bye), but she is a massive question mark. We aren't even sure if she will show up or not but if she does, personally, I don't expect her to be in the mix. However, she does have a history of peaking "early" so perhaps with Nationals being her first competition, she could perhaps surprise IF she is in shape.

Yes, you're right. You know what they say. Out of sight, out of mind. Will edit the document again.
 
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