State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

fairly4 · Dec 14, 2012

i think if yuna kim skates in olympics more than likely she will win. she is above the field. shows in nrw trophy.

but if mistakes i think mao, miki (if she goes) akiko, plus carolina kostner has the inside track of winning the ogm.
My next group
however i would put in the usa ladies, all of the mention above, Ashley, mirai, christina, agnes, gracies, caroline zhang.
plus the russian ladies. of alena, adelina, elizaveta, julia, those 4 maybe polina and ksenia.Joanie, Kaetlyn
i would also put in outside changes of kexin zhang, zijun li, mae bernice meite.

Skater Boy · Dec 14, 2012

I don't think it is very likely all the top American ladies would skate their best at Nationals. Their track record suggests well that would mean the world has come to an end. The odds aren't favorable especially when you factor in Czisny is returning form injury. I don't have a lot of faith in the consistency of Mirai, Alissa, Christine, Agnes, Caroline or Angela they could fluke out but not a thte same time. I am getting rather leery - I am not sure all these injured skaters will be ready for their nationals.

R.D. · Dec 15, 2012

I think one or two could spring a surprise.

Skaters like Gold and Nagasu may not have started out impressive- but they have shown improvement in their second event over their first. Now that they've had some extra time, they may be set up to peak at Nationals or later. I would not count them out.

OTOH, skaters like Wagner and Gao started out with a bang, ready to take names and shock the world. Unfortunately both (Gao in particular) seem to have hit a bump in the road. It remains to be seen whether it is simply a bump or the start of a rough path. Still, they are very much in the game.

Then, you've got Czisny, who may/may not be in shape, or may/may not even show up. It is tempting to say she has no shot at all, but then I remember past surprises from her (coming out of nowhere at SC, everything coming together for her at Nationals 2007, her re-emergence post-2010)...and I just don't know what to expect from her. With her coming back from injury, I have my doubts...but stranger things have happened.

Skater Boy · Dec 15, 2012

It seems like people are more forgiving or forgetful or her bad skates than say a Patrick Chan. However, she was dreadful at worlds this year. Injury or not her scores were amazingly high though consider her skates were just bad - Canada had no woman threat and even she beat Alissa. No disrespect to Canada or Lacoste. So I give Czisny kudos for trying to come back. I know it is about the joy of competing and in many cases the olympic dream

R.D. · Dec 15, 2012

Skater Boy said:
It seems like people are more forgiving or forgetful or her bad skates than say a Patrick Chan. However, she was dreadful at worlds this year.

I know. I really don't want her at worlds again (with all due respect/no offense)...having said that, hopefully she can finish on a stronger note than that embarrassment in France (for her own sake). I will never understand why she didn't just WD. But that's been beaten to death already.

And consider that Flatt got pounded last year for doing essentially the same thing (skating on injury) and even SHE wasn't that bad. That strengthens your point. Czisny got a free pass from everyone- except me, it seems.

ETA: Perhaps that will be a non-issue, though. If Gold, Nagasu, and Wagner skate as we know they can- we shouldn't have to worry about Czisny getting on the team no matter what she does.

drivingmissdaisy · Dec 15, 2012

R.D. said:
Perhaps that will be a non-issue, though. If Gold, Nagasu, and Wagner skate as we know they can- we shouldn't have to worry about Czisny getting on the team no matter what she does.

Unless Alissa wins, I would hope USFSA would wait until after 4CC to make a decision. If Alissa placed 2nd, I think it would be a good idea for her and the 3rd place finisher to face off at 4CC because one competition in a year is not enough to make such an important decision. If Alissa places 3rd or lower she should not be considered for the team at all.

pangtongfan · Dec 15, 2012

Czisny is not going to be on the team. The USFSA will ensure the U.S judges have their scalpels out like they did for Flatt last year. If the U.S regains 3 spots they might give her a look next year if she is skating great, and skates great at Nationals, but for this year with Olympic spots on the line forget it, even if she lands a quadruple salchow and 7 triples at Nationals. I will comfortably guarantee 2 things happening at Nationals. Czisny not making the team no matter what, and Wagner being named to the team no matter what (even if she doesnt compete). Beyond that who knows, many other things could happen, but neither of those two.

ForeverFish · Dec 15, 2012

Even if Czisny comes up from behind to nab first or second (unlikely, IMO), the USFSA is not obligated to send her to Worlds. Like has been said, Wagner--whether she competes or not--will have a spot for sure, and I agree with the notion that Gold seems to be the realistic pick #2 given her 2 GP assignments barely after she went senior.

Icey · Dec 15, 2012

If Ashley were not to compete and Alissa were to win the gold medal at nationals, I think they would reluctantly send Alissa to worlds along with Ashley.

Mathman · Dec 15, 2012

I am pretty sure the USFSA must send the national champion, no matter what. Here is the rule (IRC6.04A):

The U.S. World Team shall be selected from those athletes who are ISU senior age eligible and shall include the current U.S. champion in each discipline. The remaining selections shall be based upon the results of the two most recent U.S. Figure Skating Championships, the most recent World Championship, the most recent Four Continents Championship and all other international events;

The team is named before Four Continents, so the reference to 4CC means last years 4CCs.

pangtongfan · Dec 15, 2012

Mathman said:
I am pretty sure the USFSA must send the national champion, no matter what.

Indeed they do which is why they would make certain that Czisny does not win Nationals in a year Olympic spots are on the line at Worlds. Not that this would be difficult unless she skated a blinder and everyone else fell 3 times.

Bruin714 · Dec 15, 2012

Czisny improves her chances of going to the Olympics if she doesn't skate at the 2013 Worlds.

R.D. · Dec 16, 2012

I posed this question on another forum, but I guess we're on that topic here so it's a good time to move it over:

Suppose Czisny surprises everyone at Nationals and places 2nd. If you, as the poster, are USFS, what do you do?

a) Send her to worlds

b) Send her & 3rd place finisher to 4CC, with higher finisher getting the spot

c) Send her to 4CC, but not to worlds

d) Don't send her anywhere

______________

Bruin714 · Dec 16, 2012

R.D. said:
I posed this question on another forum, but I guess we're on that topic here so it's a good time to move it over:

Suppose Czisny surprises everyone at Nationals and places 2nd. If you, as the poster, are USFS, what do you do?

a) Send her to worlds

b) Send her & 3rd place finisher to 4CC, with higher finisher getting the spot

c) Send her to 4CC, but not to worlds

d) Don't send her anywhere

______________

Option B - Not just for Czisny, but Four Continents (with an international panel) should be used to decide who else besides the National Champion goes to Worlds.

Mathman · Dec 16, 2012

To me, there are two competing ideas about how to select the U.S. team for Worlds.

1. It is the responsibility of the USFSA to send the strongest team.

2. It is the responsibility of the skater to earn the assignment.

Top down or bottom up? The power and authority of the establishment or the rights and opportunities of the individual?

Historically, the USFSA has taken the second viewpoint, and furthermore has interpreted "earning the assignment" as "earning the assignment at Nationals." There have been signs of a shift in thinking at the USFSA -- or maybe just on Internet forums. The worst possibility (pangtiongfan suggests this above) is that the USFSA gives lip service to #2 while pressuring the judges to arrange a pre-determined #1.

There is no guarantee that anyone will skate well or badly at Worlds. I would send the top two finishers at Nationals to Worlds (thus defying the Devil who is trying to tempt me to sell my soul for three spots at the Olympics).

Edited to add: Option (b) would be the most dramatic departure with tradition. The U.S. world team has always been announced before Four Continents. Indeed, historically the top U.S. skaters have skipped Four Continents altogether in order to prepare for Worlds and to give other skaters a chance for exposure to international competition. (Not so much recently, though.)

FSGMT · Dec 16, 2012

Bruin714 said:
Option B - Not just for Czisny, but Four Continents (with an international panel) should be used to decide who else besides the National Champion goes to Worlds.

Like what Canada did with phaneuf and Lacoste last year...

ForeverFish · Dec 16, 2012

Mathman said:
I am pretty sure the USFSA must send the national champion, no matter what. Here is the rule (IRC6.04A):

Whoops, my bad. Thanks for clearing that up. I was under the assumption that, while tradition calls for the national champion to be sent, it's ultimately the USFSA's decision. In that case, then, I'm thinking they will ascertain that either Wagner or Gold take the top spot. Those two are going to Worlds no matter what.

ForeverFish · Dec 16, 2012

R.D. said:
I posed this question on another forum, but I guess we're on that topic here so it's a good time to move it over:

Suppose Czisny surprises everyone at Nationals and places 2nd. If you, as the poster, are USFS, what do you do?

a) Send her to worlds

b) Send her & 3rd place finisher to 4CC, with higher finisher getting the spot

c) Send her to 4CC, but not to worlds

d) Don't send her anywhere

______________

B, the popular opinion. Czisny was well enough to skate in NBC's Skating & Gymnastics Spectacular, but then again, those flashy, pretty shows aren't exactly indicators of preparedness for a competition like Nats.

R.D. · Dec 16, 2012

My take:

Option B would be the fairest method IMO. It would give Czisny a chance to prove that the good showing was no fluke, and the 3rd place finisher another shot (particularly if this skater had a decent GP season).

But I would go with C. It would be perfectly justifiable IMHO after the mess of 2009 and the total embarrassment that was last year. Olympic spots are on the line and no chances can be taken with someone as unreliable and hot/cold as Czisny (I'm thinking of the Katy Perry song, ha).

ForeverFish · Dec 16, 2012

I agree with the premise of your argument, R.D., but who on the US women's team have we seen to be truly consistent this season? Only Wagner, and if you consider her mistakes at the GPF, even she's out of the running.

I'm 100% with you on keeping Czisny from the Worlds team until she proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that she's ready. After being AWOL for half of a season, I very much doubt that the USFSA will want to take the chance, even if she has a spectacular showing at Nats and surpasses Gold, Nagasu, and Zawadzki.

State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

fairly4

Skater Boy

R.D.

Skater Boy

R.D.

drivingmissdaisy

pangtongfan

Match Penalty

ForeverFish

Icey

Mathman

pangtongfan

Match Penalty

Bruin714

R.D.

Bruin714

Mathman

FSGMT

ForeverFish

ForeverFish

R.D.

ForeverFish

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