State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season | Page 53 | Golden Skate

State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

gkelly

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Evan Lysacek, Tara Lipinski, and Sarah Hughes all went to the Olympics without winning Nationals at all, never mind just the free skate.

For that matter, Alexei Yagudin never won Russian nationals, and I think he only skipped it once during the years he was winning gold or silver at all his international championships.
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
If they are clean, too? Why assume one really inconsistent girl clean, and not the others who are less inconsistent?
That's so silly. The other girls are capable of beating her if they are clean and she's clean. Kiira is planning 7 triples LP herself.

Ultimately, the speculation comes down to this

a) If everyone is clean, how do they rank?
b) Is skater X more or less likely to be clean compared to the remaining skaters.

I think Gold would be cleaner than Korpi simply because the latter is injured and doesn't have the strongest jumps in the first place, in this example.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Kiira Korpi may plan a 7-triple FS, but it's doubtful she can actually land 7 clean triples.
She lips (3fe) and often doubles jumps. At CoR, she landed just 5 triples. And that was one of her better skates.
 

vera01

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 6, 2013
Ultimately, the speculation comes down to this

a) If everyone is clean, how do they rank?
b) Is skater X more or less likely to be clean compared to the remaining skaters.

I think Gold would be cleaner than Korpi simply because the latter is injured and doesn't have the strongest jumps in the first place, in this example.

Possibly, but I doubt we'll be able to see Gracie with CoR SP and Nationals FS. She has much more pressure on her now that she has to bring 3 spots back.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Well Kiira's not going to Worlds anyways now so that's one less person Gracie needs to worry about. And a clean Gracie will beat a clean Kanako, who doesn't have that great PCS and bad technique on jumps. With a strict caller, Kanako might wind up with pretty low scores b/c her jumps are almost never fully rotated.
 

clairecloutier

Final Flight
Joined
Aug 27, 2003
Well Kiira's not going to Worlds anyways now so that's one less person Gracie needs to worry about.

Is this confirmed? I saw she tweeted something today about her body "not cooperating" :), but didn't see a formal announcement.

If Kiira is out of Worlds, that definitely helps both the U.S. and Russian women in the quest for 3 spots, as Kiira would almost certainly have been top 10.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Well Kiira's not going to Worlds anyways now so that's one less person Gracie needs to worry about. And a clean Gracie will beat a clean Kanako, who doesn't have that great PCS and bad technique on jumps. With a strict caller, Kanako might wind up with pretty low scores b/c her jumps are almost never fully rotated.

Agreed. No question a clean Wagner and clean Gold beat a clean Kanako, and I expect both would be placed over a clean Suzuki too (whether they should is a moot point). Both would beat a clean Osmond as she doesnt have the tech. content of Gold or the PCS of Wagner. The biggest question is how both would compare to Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva skating cleanly as well, but even if they finished behind them that would at worst be 6th and 7th and 3 spots for the U.S back . Of course it is silly to assume everyone would skate cleanly. Despite her recent problems I think Wagner is the most consistent of that whole 4-8 group and the most likely to skate clean or close to it. Either way the U.S has a good shot get that 3rd spot back. Wagner could medal if she rediscovers her early season form and one of Asada or Kostner bomb to give her the opening. Gold IMO cant medal this year even if she skates lights out and others make mistakes, 4th or 5th is best scenario for her.
 

clairecloutier

Final Flight
Joined
Aug 27, 2003
Is this confirmed? I saw she tweeted something today about her body "not cooperating" :), but didn't see a formal announcement.

If Kiira is out of Worlds, that definitely helps both the U.S. and Russian women in the quest for 3 spots, as Kiira would almost certainly have been top 10.


I see it's confirmed on IceNetwork.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
One wonders if, considering everything, this team is good enough to do what it's being asked to do...

Ashley says: “I think the U.S. is sending a very capable team. Gracie and I, as long as we skate solid performances we’ll be able to accomplish that. I definitely am aware there’s a lot at stake at this competition.”

I guess I agree with this. If everyone skated their best I think Ashley would wind up 5th and Gracie 8th, which would do it. However, as we know all the skaters do not skate their best, so if they are clean the US ladies could place a bit higher. I'm not confident because both skaters are coming in with little momentum.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
I actually think Gold can do better than 8th if she did her best...but in reality, top 10 will be a stretch for her.

As for Wagner, she's in that funny spot where she MIGHT be able to medal (or even win- don't laugh, Meissner did it) if she skated lights out w/3-3 and the favorites stumbled, but on an average day will probably be around 5th-6th. Maybe 4th on a good day.
 

Serious Business

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 7, 2011
With the kind of ironic luck US women have been having at Worlds the last few years, Gracie will skate lights out to a surprise 5th place finish, while Ashley bombs into 9th place. *sadtrombone*
 

amc987

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 12, 2012
Keeping my fingers crossed that Gracie skates lights out (think Nationals FS plus CLEAN SP) and that Wagner has regained her Grand Prix-level consistency. If both of these things happen, we should have no problem getting 3 spots for Sochi. I don't really care whether either ends up on the podium in London as long as we can send 3 skaters to the Olympics.
 

Jammers

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 4, 2010
Country
United-States
Keeping my fingers crossed that Gracie skates lights out (think Nationals FS plus CLEAN SP) and that Wagner has regained her Grand Prix-level consistency. If both of these things happen, we should have no problem getting 3 spots for Sochi. I don't really care whether either ends up on the podium in London as long as we can send 3 skaters to the Olympics.
Same here. First things first is getting that 3rd spot back. Sooner not later another US Lady will be on the podium.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Keeping my fingers crossed that Gracie skates lights out (think Nationals FS plus CLEAN SP) and that Wagner has regained her Grand Prix-level consistency. If both of these things happen, we should have no problem getting 3 spots for Sochi. I don't really care whether either ends up on the podium in London as long as we can send 3 skaters to the Olympics.

Gracie said that she's focusing on putting out 2 to 3 completely clean programs every day. The only thing standing in her way is nerves, which I think (hope) her coaches and sports psychologist are helping her overcome.

Despite her GPF and Nationals free skates, I'm really not worried about Ashley. She's gained a lot of respect on the international scene this season and was remarkably consistent at both of her Grand Prix events (and, even with two falls, won silver in the GPF behind Mao Asada). Plus, it'll be good for Gracie to have someone on hand who's had prior Worlds experience.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Despite her GPF and Nationals free skates, I'm really not worried about Ashley. She's gained a lot of respect on the international scene this season and was remarkably consistent at both of her Grand Prix events (and, even with two falls, won silver in the GPF behind Mao Asada)...

who, I should point out, is someone Wagner has beaten before...
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
I'm more worried for Ashley than I was before, because so many of the people she's up against seem to be peaking now (Kostner, Asada, Tuktamisheva) or have demonstrated evidence of righting the slump they were in (Suzuki, Sotnikova). We haven't seen where Ashley's at (nor Gold, for that matter). Kim's not in either group due to a real lack of a season, but she delivered a clean long program at Nationals which suggests she's certainly in fighting condition.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
I'm more worried for Ashley than I was before, because so many of the people she's up against seem to be peaking now (Kostner, Asada, Tuktamisheva) or have demonstrated evidence of righting the slump they were in (Suzuki, Sotnikova). We haven't seen where Ashley's at (nor Gold, for that matter). Kim's not in either group due to a real lack of a season, but she delivered a clean long program at Nationals which suggests she's certainly in fighting condition.

Actually, I worry that Asada's eight-triple free skate is too ambitious. If she hits every single element, she's definitely on the podium and maybe even the world champion. If she falters or missteps, the judges are sure to hammer her down -- she may not even finish in the top five with the level of skating that's going to be present.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
I'm more worried for Ashley than I was before, because so many of the people she's up against seem to be peaking now (Kostner, Asada, Tuktamisheva) or have demonstrated evidence of righting the slump they were in (Suzuki, Sotnikova). We haven't seen where Ashley's at (nor Gold, for that matter). Kim's not in either group due to a real lack of a season, but she delivered a clean long program at Nationals which suggests she's certainly in fighting condition.

I expect all 6 of those skaters to finish ahead of Ashley and Gracie in the SP. That is why I am concerned; I worry less about Ashley skating 2 clean programs than her finishing down in the standings because of no 3/3 in the SP. She seems kind of uncertain about doing the 3/3 in her interview, something along the lines of "we'll decide when we get there." IMO unless she is doing it poorly in practice, Ashley MUST go for the 3/3 in the SP.
 
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