State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

[Mathman]

I think mskater got it right a few posts ago. The key is Alissa's assignment to NHK.

So Mirai goes to Cup of China. If she bombs, it's back to the practice rink to prepare for nationals. No harm done, since she has already banked her qualifying score from Finlandia, where she edged out Ira Vannut, Beatta Papp, Natali Papova, etc.

If Mirai medals at Cup of China and it looks like she has a shot at making the Grand Prix finals, then the USFSA leans on Alissa to withdraw from NHK, saying she needs a little more time in recovery. The deal with the Japanese Federation to replace Alissa with Mirai is already done, in exchange for taking Imai for Skate America (while avoiding Asada, Ando, Suzuki, and Murakami).

Win-win.

[mskater93]

Mirai will have to score more than 156 something, though, for that to happen and will DEFINITELY need to break 100 in the LP. I don't have a high degree of hope at this time for Mirai's season with the skate she put out at Glacier Falls. There were a lot of problems with the technical content (SP and LP both) and I didn't feel that the programs themselves had content between the technical elements (seemed rather bare, in other words). Granted, this was an August local competition, but it just seemed so...not ready and the technical content seems to have taken several steps back.

USFS has no issue with throwing Gao & Flatt under the proverbial Ashley Wagner bus in the same way they had no problem with throwing Zhang and Forte under the Alissa Czsiny bus at SA last year. In order to ensure the Champ is getting a fighting shot at winning at home, they pick the "easiest" of the 1,2,3 and in this case she's the seeded 4,5,6 skater (this was before Kostner decided against GP this season), but USFS will also pick the "easiest" of the 4,5,6 seeded skater for the champ to pick off if they have to and they choose the two host picks to be skaters that the champ can most likely beat unless it's a complete off day. The problem is, right now, with the wild inconsistencies of the US ladies, you can't guarantee who's going to be the best in any given season. When Kwan was Kween, it didn't matter who was invited to SA (although, if you will recall, Sasha was never invited at the same time to SA as the Kween), she would beat all comers anyway!!

[janetfan]

Mirai will have to score more than 156 something, though, for that to happen and will DEFINITELY need to break 100 in the LP. I don't have a high degree of hope at this time for Mirai's season with the skate she put out at Glacier Falls. There were a lot of problems with the technical content (SP and LP both) and I didn't feel that the programs themselves had content between the technical elements (seemed rather bare, in other words). Granted, this was an August local competition, but it just seemed so...not ready and the technical content seems to have taken several steps back.

USFS has no issue with throwing Gao & Flatt under the proverbial Ashley Wagner bus in the same way they had no problem with throwing Zhang and Forte under the Alissa Czsiny bus at SA last year. In order to ensure the Champ is getting a fighting shot at winning at home, they pick the "easiest" of the 1,2,3 and in this case she's the seeded 4,5,6 skater (this was before Kostner decided against GP this season), but USFS will also pick the "easiest" of the 4,5,6 seeded skater for the champ to pick off if they have to and they choose the two host picks to be skaters that the champ can most likely beat unless it's a complete off day. The problem is, right now, with the wild inconsistencies of the US ladies, you can't guarantee who's going to be the best in any given season. When Kwan was Kween, it didn't matter who was invited to SA (although, if you will recall, Sasha was never invited at the same time to SA as the Kween), she would beat all comers anyway!!

Well according to your logic and how terrible Mirai is why ship her out again?
Not sure what you are saying here? If Mirai is so weak why do they have to keep her away from SA year after year?

What am I missing ?

[blue dog]

When Kwan was Kween, it didn't matter who was invited to SA (although, if you will recall, Sasha was never invited at the same time to SA as the Kween), she would beat all comers anyway!!

Off topic, but she was...once. 2001, when people thought Hughes should've beaten Kwan.

[Tonichelle]

OK...I love Mirai, but 7th at nationals with ONE assignment is actually pretty good. Oftentimes, 7th at nationals means NO GP, and maybe a senior B, if you're lucky. Mirai and Alissa have really been gifted. The year after Alissa finished 10th, she was given 2 GP's. But then again, that year, a lot of the girls who are skating in seniors now (Gracie, Agnes, etc) were juniors. Our field was shallower. Another example-- Caroline was 12th one year and got a GP the next. Joelle Forte was 8th or 9th at Nationals, and was given the TBA at Skate America.

A lot of strategizing goes into grand prix assignments. Mirai isn't going to Skate America, because Mirai can actually beat Ashley. So can Rachael, but international judges tend to prefer Mirai over Rachael. As someone already said, CoC is always easier. The USFSA is doing this to at least ensure that one American woman makes it to the GPF. At the moment, it's protecting its best chances-- Gracie and Ashley. As much as I love Mirai, she is a bit of a wild card this year.

This is how I feel. I don't see the need to get my panties in a wad, then or now. Seems to me it's how most of the feds are playing the game anymore.

[Skater Boy]

Oy politics. My poor head. Maybe they just want Mcubed to be at COC It sounds nice???? I have a lot of confidence in Ashley but really Mirai, Caroline, Agnes, Christine, Rachel or Alyssa one of them you think would have or should have stepped up to the plate with some consistent skating. Let's analyze this. Gao did not seem to really develop under Orser. Zhang looked hopeful with some consistent and strong skates at Nationals and 4CCs this year. But was that because there was no expectation? Now she has skated poorly at Nebelhorn - was that due to injury or what??? Agnes has got to get the freeskate under control. Rachel loves the limelight some say or loves to skate BUT she wants it all. Can she handle school and skating so far it doesn't look great. And now for Alyssa. injury or no injury she has not shown she has the guts to be a champion. The issue is should she have done what Canada's Cynthia Phaneuf did and retire gracefully? She could be like so many unfulfilled skaters - Tiffany Chin, Nicole bobek, Christopher Bowman, Josee Chouinard, Tracey Wainman, Emanual Sandhu et al - great potential but never reached full potential.

[burntBREAD]

Nationals placements don't have an impact on GP selection, right? I thought that GP selection was based on World Ranking and Season's Best.

[mskater93]

Well according to your logic and how terrible Mirai is why ship her out again?
Not sure what you are saying here? If Mirai is so weak why do they have to keep her away from SA year after year?

What am I missing ?

I am saying that to get Alissa's spot in Japan, she will have to skate better than she did at Glacier Falls by a lot. I have very low expectations after that set of programs as a fan of American ladies for her this season; but in the spring/early summer when all this gets sorted out on who goes where when on the GP circuit, it definitely made strategic sense to let CoC pick her, plan for Alissa to withdraw from Japan (and work out a probable deal for Mirai to backfill her) and pick two definite lower level candidates for the Ashley Wagner bus to roll over at SA. Mirai talked about a rededication to training and being closer to home improving her ability to train more effectively, etc, and Flatt is still working through a heavy course load at Stanford. If you buy the PR from Mirai's camp, then you do what you did...

[R.D.]

OK...I love Mirai, but 7th at nationals with ONE assignment is actually pretty good. Oftentimes, 7th at nationals means NO GP, and maybe a senior B, if you're lucky. Mirai and Alissa have really been gifted. The year after Alissa finished 10th, she was given 2 GP's. But then again, that year, a lot of the girls who are skating in seniors now (Gracie, Agnes, etc) were juniors. Our field was shallower. Another example-- Caroline was 12th one year and got a GP the next. Joelle Forte was 8th or 9th at Nationals, and was given the TBA at Skate America.

A lot of strategizing goes into grand prix assignments. Mirai isn't going to Skate America, because Mirai can actually beat Ashley. So can Rachael, but international judges tend to prefer Mirai over Rachael. As someone already said, CoC is always easier. The USFSA is doing this to at least ensure that one American woman makes it to the GPF. At the moment, it's protecting its best chances-- Gracie and Ashley. As much as I love Mirai, she is a bit of a wild card this year.

I think Czisny got the biggest gift of all, actually. Of course, the reason she only has 1 event is because she turned the second one down. But the fact that she even had such an option is just

As for Nagasu, seems like a vigorous debate as to whether or not USFS is snubbing her or not, but forget all that for a minute and let's take a look at her track. 2nd at 2010 Nationals (deserved 1st IMHO), 4th at Vancouver Olympics, 7th at 2010 Worlds. Then 2011 she JUST misses the World team, finishing 3rd, and showing nowhere near the energy she had the previous season. Then, last season, she seemingly hit rock bottom with that 7th place finish at Nationals. So, just by results, I'm seeing a clear downward trend...it will be up to her to try to reverse that this season.

Flatt is also on a downward trend, but I'm guessing she got SA over Nagasu due to her higher finish at Nationals (6th vs 7th).

It's not a good time for our former Olympians...

[Pepe Nero]

I believe JSF and USFS have something worked out concerning Mirai and NHK and Alissa's spot and that is why Mirai currently only has 1 event. Who really believes Alissa will be ready to skate by NHK after the injury/surgery she just had and the fact that she was JUST getting back on the ice (stroking only, no jumps, no spins) the week after Champs Camp? I suspect she will withdraw right before the event and Mirai will be the substitute and that this has been the plan all along.

If Mirai medals at Cup of China and it looks like she has a shot at making the Grand Prix finals, then the USFSA leans on Alissa to withdraw from NHK, saying she needs a little more time in recovery. The deal with the Japanese Federation to replace Alissa with Mirai is already done, in exchange for taking Imai for Skate America (while avoiding Asada, Ando, Suzuki, and Murakami).

Has there been some evidence of this that's come to light? Are you speculating? It doesn't seem implausible to me; I'm just wondering if I missed something.

[Mathman]

Has there been some evidence of this that's come to light? Are you speculating? It doesn't seem implausible to me; I'm just wondering if I missed something.

I am just goofing around. I know nothing.

Mskater knows a lot of people in the skating world and may have heard something definite to back up these speculations.

Off topic, but she was...once. 2001, when people thought Hughes should've beaten Kwan.

I would give it to Michelle in 2001. Not so sure about 2000, though.

Here is Sarah's LP. Six clean triples including triple Salchow-triple loop combination. Spirals just as good as Michelle's and a much better layback. Still a little bit coltish and lacking Michelle's presence on the ice and overall Kwanliness.

Michelle stepped out of her opening triple loop, did not do a triple-triple, doubled her flip, and had to abandon her choreography to squeeze in an eighth jumping pass to bring her triples up to five.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LX0-hBiQjo#t=3m3s

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2QJYG...relmfu#t=0m33s

[janetfan]

I think mskater got it right a few posts ago. The key is Alissa's assignment to NHK.

So Mirai goes to Cup of China. If she bombs, it's back to the practice rink to prepare for nationals. No harm done, since she has already banked her qualifying score from Finlandia, where she edged out Ira Vannut, Beatta Papp, Natali Papova, etc.

If Mirai medals at Cup of China and it looks like she has a shot at making the Grand Prix finals, then the USFSA leans on Alissa to withdraw from NHK, saying she needs a little more time in recovery. The deal with the Japanese Federation to replace Alissa with Mirai is already done, in exchange for taking Imai for Skate America (while avoiding Asada, Ando, Suzuki, and Murakami).

Win-win.

And what if Alissa is ready?

I find it hard to hope for Mirai to get Alissa's GP because I am also a big Alissa fan. I hope Alissa is doing great and her training is progressing.

This is far from a win-win situation for me but it is what it is.

[mskater93]

I am just goofing around. I know nothing.

Mskater knows a lot of people in the skating world and may have heard something definite to back up these speculations.

Mine is purely speculation based on how long it will probably take to regain technical skills and put together programs from the time Alissa got back on the ice. I just don't see NHK weekend as a realistic representation of the necessary time it will take for those things to happen successfully based on the date Alissa got back on the ice and the restrictions she returned to the ice with (no jumping, no spinning) at least initially. I also am speculating that because Mirai is high on the sub list and she didn't get a second assignment anywhere else, that there was some dealing being made because Mirai is fairly popular and has a huge Japanese fan base.

[brightphoton]

What makes anyone so sure Czisny is going to withdraw due to injury? Sure, if she skates injured, she'll fall a lot and skate poorly, but it's not like that's ever stopped her before. The USFSA isn't known for acting on their stellar monitoring either.

[janetfan]

What makes anyone so sure Czisny is going to withdraw due to injury? Sure, if she skates injured, she'll fall a lot and skate poorly, but it's not like that's ever stopped her before. The USFSA isn't known for acting on their stellar monitoring either.

Speculation about Alissa might be more about deflecting the reality of the GP assignments.

Someone mentioned Flatt finished 6th at Natls and Nagasu 7th and that was the basis for Flatt getting SA....again.
That doesn't sound right to me.

I am familiar with the selection process for the Natl team. When I think about it I don't know nearly as much about the RULES for how GP's are assigned to skaters.

Silly me - I thought it might have to do with world rankings and scores along with results and medals from the previous season's INTL events.

Would that be too fair and sporting for figure skating?

This feels like watching baseball or football deciding that a third place team won't make the playoffs but the 5th and 6th place team will.

Fans wouldn't accept such a scenario and it would greatly diminish interest in these sports if they became more about politics and less about competing.