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Thread: State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

  1. #241
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsisjiejie View Post

    Non-factors: Rachael Flatt (past prime, occupied with college/skating now secondary), Christina Gao (college, skating now secondary), Caroline Zhang (past prime, too many tech problems), Alissa Czisny (injury recovery, likely past prime), Vanessa Lam (tech issues, downward trajectory), Courtney Hicks (not soup yet)

    Wild Cards: Mirai Nagasu, Agnes Zawadski (both can be all over the map), Hannah Miller, Leah Keiser (both of those I think also now skate Senior domestically)
    D
    I also am writing off Flatt, but I have written her off before and she has come back. I am still writing her off. I am not writing off Zhang or Czisny. Zhang had a terrible Nebelhorn, but also started off slowly last year, subsequently cleared up many of her tech problems and had a podium at 4CC ahead of Murakami. Czisny has been written off many times, but always comes back. She is still the defending silver medalist at Nationals only 8 months ago. It is too early too stick in the fork.

  2. #242
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    Congrats to Mirai on her bronze but it wasn't that impressive of a skate and one would think she would have done better - this was the woman who took fourth at the Olympics and seemed on a upswing. Third at a B event is a huge success. yep she is a wild card.

  3. #243
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skater Boy View Post
    Congrats to Mirai on her bronze but it wasn't that impressive of a skate and one would think she would have done better - this was the woman who took fourth at the Olympics and seemed on a upswing. Third at a B event is a huge success. yep she is a wild card.
    Are you saying Mirai ended last season on the upswing? Do you actually follow skating

    How about having a new coach and choreograpgher this year? Can that effect a skater early in the season?

    How did the World Champion do this weekend with his new coaching team?

    What about Plushy? Was that his best? Atleast Mirai managed to land her 2A's

    I liked Mirai's LP - but the clip on the SP is shot from too far away to see details - but think it needs alot of work yet.

    Not worrying about the scores this early- didn't Julia score as well as Mao and Ashley this weekend?

    But anyone can see she is not their equal yet - except in the insane world of the CoP.

    Lambiel recently said the CoP fails to consider the program as a whole.

    Here is a good example of that:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UlJuZjzpUM

    It's 14 year old Michelle skating at the WC's. Many though she deserved a medal - but after considering her two programs the judges pretty much agreed -"she is a cute little girl with good jumps who still skates like a little girl.

    Kwan fans might disagree but the judges were probably right.

    I do agree Mirai can be thought of as a "wildcard" .......... which is part of why US Skating keeps her away from Skate America year after year.

    Heaven forbid she might beat the US champion there - which might feel as bad to US Skating as global warming or an outbreak of atonal music in our elevators.
    Last edited by janetfan; 10-08-2012 at 01:15 PM.

  4. #244
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    The key is to try to get that 3rd spot back for the Olympics. It will be to all the competitors' benefit. Every single team we've sent since 2007 has fallen short one way or another.

    Nagasu isn't a skater known to peak early in the season, so I'd say based on her history she's in good shape. The question is whether it will be enough to top feisty Wagner. Just hoping everyone remains healthy because I think this Nationals could be good...

  5. #245
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    The key is to try to get that 3rd spot back for the Olympics. It will be to all the competitors' benefit. Every single team we've sent since 2007 has fallen short one way or another.

    Nagasu isn't a skater known to peak early in the season, so I'd say based on her history she's in good shape. The question is whether it will be enough to top feisty Wagner. Just hoping everyone remains healthy because I think this Nationals could be good...
    I agree - except I never quite get the part about the three skaters. Or that "USA keeps sending the wrong two skaters.

    I see three skaters as opposed to two as a show of a federation's strength and depth.

    I don't see three skaters as opposed to two guaranteeing better medal results at Worlds/Olympics.

    If you want the third skater as insurance against bombing I can see that point.
    I can also see USA Ladies just haven't been strong and especially consistent enough the past several years to get three spots back.

    And if they did get them back it is not much of a longshot to think they could lose the third spot back very quickly -like the next season.
    Last edited by janetfan; 10-08-2012 at 03:04 PM.

  6. #246
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    Three skaters gives you a 50% better shot of getting better results than 2. If skater B has a bad day, skater C could nail it and get a medal, but if you only have two spots, skater C doesn't even get a shot at it. Think Sara Hughes (3rd at US Nationals in 2002 and Olympic Champion in the same year), Nancy Kerrigan (3rd at US Nationals in 92, Olympic Bronze medallist ahead of the US Silver Medallist in the same year), Evan Lysacek (US Bronze Medallist and World Bronze Medallist the same year) who flew under the radar and nailed it when it counted on the World stage. People LOVE an underdog...

  7. #247
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    Quote Originally Posted by mskater93 View Post
    Three skaters gives you a 50% better shot of getting better results than 2. If skater B has a bad day, skater C could nail it and get a medal, but if you only have two spots, skater C doesn't even get a shot at it. Think Sara Hughes (3rd at US Nationals in 2002 and Olympic Champion in the same year), Nancy Kerrigan (3rd at US Nationals in 92, Olympic Bronze medallist ahead of the US Silver Medallist in the same year), Evan Lysacek (US Bronze Medallist and World Bronze Medallist the same year) who flew under the radar and nailed it when it counted on the World stage. People LOVE an underdog...
    I get your point - but think it still applies more readily when we are talking about world classs skaters.
    Nancy and Sarah achieved results that are much better than any of the current group.

    There is really no comparison.

    So yes, if we are talking about skaters who won world and Olympic medals the chance to win or medal is going to be better. Like100% better
    Last edited by janetfan; 10-08-2012 at 03:01 PM.

  8. #248
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    I think a lot of people are looking at the inconsistencies of the US ladies when they talk about having three skaters at Worlds/Olympics for US ladies. After all the pond is shallow (ie inconsistent) but broad (on a good day, a number of US ladies can put up a big score) and if you get that 50% increase of "trials" you might get better results overall. Sara ONLY had one World Bronze medal (and some GP medals, one gold over skaters who she would have to prove herself against) to her credit prior to winning the Olympics and if only 2 ladies could have gone to the Olympics, the US team would have missed out on the big prize in ladies that year because it would have been Michelle and Sasha (assuming just removing Sara from the results and all other things remain the same including the skates of all the ladies).

  9. #249
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    Quote Originally Posted by mskater93 View Post
    I think a lot of people are looking at the inconsistencies of the US ladies when they talk about having three skaters at Worlds/Olympics for US ladies. After all the pond is shallow (ie inconsistent) but broad (on a good day, a number of US ladies can put up a big score) and if you get that 50% increase of "trials" you might get better results overall. Sara ONLY had one World Bronze medal (and some GP medals, one gold over skaters who she would have to prove herself against) to her credit prior to winning the Olympics and if only 2 ladies could have gone to the Olympics, the US team would have missed out on the big prize in ladies that year because it would have been Michelle and Sasha (assuming just removing Sara from the results and all other things remain the same including the skates of all the ladies).
    OK, that is a better case.....but saying Sarah only won a world medal and OGM with a few GP medals is pretty much my point.

    None of the current group can touch her. They just haven't been good enough to win a medal at Worlds or Olympics and how often do they actually beat the two best skaters in the world at a GP event like Sarah did?

    They are just not in the same league by today's standards. Maybe Ashley is getting there. But she could have won a medal last season and what happened?

    The year before Alissa came close but that's not to be confused with what Sarah did.

    Mirai came fourth at the Olympics. Sasha also came 4th the year Sarah won and Michelle finished third.

    It is just totally different than it used to be.

    USA Ladies were at or very close to the top for decades.

    If you send a team with Michelle and Sasha to Worlds - you know you are not just getting three spots next season - but a medal or two is a strong probabilty.

    Our girls currently just are not as competitive and I would be happy with two consistent skaters....the third is not as necessary if the top two do their job.

    Be we don't even have two top skaters who can show consistency on the world stage. Maybe not even one - but Ashley is showing signs.

    Maybe it's Gracie who will eventually lead us back to the podiums and three spots.
    Last edited by janetfan; 10-08-2012 at 03:47 PM.

  10. #250
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    Also, if you have three skaters, there's a good chance that they will be more relaxed going into the event knowing that they don't have to finish at least X high to maintain three spots for next year because there are two others who are close in skill level who are as likely to finish in one of those magical slots as you are. That relieves at least one layer of external pressure and might allow for better skating.

  11. #251
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    Quote Originally Posted by mskater93 View Post
    Also, if you have three skaters, there's a good chance that they will be more relaxed going into the event knowing that they don't have to finish at least X high to maintain three spots for next year because there are two others who are close in skill level who are as likely to finish in one of those magical slots as you are. That relieves at least one layer of external pressure and might allow for better skating.
    That's certainly true.
    But what about when you don't have Michelle, Sasha and Sarah?

    What if we could send three that have never shown they are good enough to medal at Worlds?

    What if you have a couple of them that have have not made the top ten at Worlds two of three times they were sent?
    And another who finished 9th and 12th her last two times?

    To think in the past few years sending what US Skating believed were our three best - Alissa, Ashley and Racahel would have suddenly stopped the bombing and become magically consistent feels like a leap of faith to me.

    They have had multiple chances and shown they are not good enough to medal. Maybe if the planets align just right one year two of our girls will skate at the top of their game and three spots will be back.

    Keeping the three spots is never guaranteed - especially with the current group. Yuna is back, Caro will be there, and Kira is looking stronger than in the past. The Russians and Japanese are formidable and our two girls would need close to personal bests to get the three spots back.

    It will be an exciting season and I hope our girls can do it but..............
    Last edited by janetfan; 10-08-2012 at 05:38 PM.

  12. #252
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    Quote Originally Posted by mskater93 View Post
    Also, if you have three skaters, there's a good chance that they will be more relaxed going into the event knowing that they don't have to finish at least X high to maintain three spots for next year because there are two others who are close in skill level who are as likely to finish in one of those magical slots as you are. That relieves at least one layer of external pressure and might allow for better skating.
    Unless you're the Canadian men, who can earn three spots but cannot keep them with three :D

  13. #253
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    Back on topic:

    After Japan Open, I think I will keep my original thoughts as is. Wagner seems to be on the right track, Zawadzki needs to find consistency in the FS, and Nagasu needs to keep climbing back up again.

    Additional thoughts on Gold, Flatt, Zhang and Czisny will have to wait. I must say though...my expectations for Flatt and Czisny are rather low.
    Last edited by R.D.; 10-08-2012 at 06:19 PM.

  14. #254
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    Back on topic:

    After Japan Open, I think I will keep my original thoughts as is. Wagner seems to be on the right track, Zawadzki needs to find consistency in the FS, and Nagasu needs to keep climbing back up again.

    Additional thoughts on Gold, Flatt, Zhang and Czisny will have to wait. I do think Flatt and Czisny are on their last legs, though. Don't expect much more out of them TBH
    Bigsis brought up something that can't be overlooked - a couple of our juniors. They are having good seasons and there is a definite possibilty we could see them shake things up at Natls.

  15. #255
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    Quote Originally Posted by janetfan View Post
    Bigsis brought up something that can't be overlooked - a couple of our juniors. They are having good seasons and there is a definite possibilty we could see them shake things up at Natls.
    Yes, the possibility exists...but I don't see anything dramatic e.g. 2008 happening.

    Some newbie could very well break into the top 6, but top 6 material and World Team material are two different levels. IOW I don't see an upset of the apple-cart in the making. (Only exception is if our leaders get injured and have to WD)

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