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Thread: State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

  1. #286
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    Quote Originally Posted by mars007 View Post
    Is Czisny retired officially? *sad*
    I didn't know that. I haven't heard much about her progress lately (although I haven't searched).

  2. #287
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    Quote Originally Posted by mars007 View Post
    Christina Gao. Angela Wang on the junior front. I don't see the Gold hype. Love MiraI and Caroline but Caroline seems to have lost...something. The spring in her step maybe. Is Czisny retired officially? *sad*
    She's not, but I don't see her returning to the level she was at before her injury. She'll be at the NHK Trophy next month.

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    This Hersh article was posted in the Flatt thread, but it is relevant here because it refers to the US ladies program as a whole, and I'd like to keep the other thread about Flatt's injury specifically:

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports...5408673.column

    My comments (originally posted in the other thread):

    Nagasu is still very much in the picture. I disagree with him here. (If there is anyone currently in the mix that I have the least amount of confidence in, it is Czisny.) Gao is wait-and-see.

    I'm still exercising caution when talking about Wagner- I STILL think she's far from a done deal. Maybe it's pessimism on my part, or seeing the ups and downs (and injuries!) of so many skaters before her- but...you know, if she happens to not do so well at TEB, what's everyone going to think? Just food for thought

    ______________

    Responding to a comment posted by "drivingmissdaisy" in the Flatt thread:

    I think Ashley is a safe bet to make 2013 Worlds. She has done enough since last year's Nationals (4CC, Worlds, SA) to get a spot even if she bombs at Nationals. Even when she gets nervous, she has the ability to at least lands jumps on 2 feet, and her PCS is high enough now to compensate for the errors. Two girls would have to have the skate of their lives in both the SP and the LP, and Ashley would have to completely bomb, for her not to finish in the top 2. And then the USFSA would have to look past her great recent results to put those 2 girls on the World team. I don't see all of those things happening.
    I think this leads to another question: will Wagner become the USFS new "darling"? By "darling" I mean will she benefit from high PCS, generous UR/GOE calls, etc. like Flatt & Czisny did for several years? If so, you might be right about her making the team even with a so-so performance.
    Last edited by R.D.; 10-31-2012 at 10:42 AM.

  4. #289
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post

    I think this leads to another question: will Wagner become the USFS new "darling"? By "darling" I mean will she benefit from high PCS, generous UR/GOE calls, etc. like Flatt & Czisny did for several years? If so, you might be right about her making the team even with a so-so performance.
    R.D., I think she already has, if her SA marks mean anything. True, she was scored by an international team of judges, but there was definitely some hometown advantage in scoring her a 127+ in the FS, just as Kaetlyn Osmond had in SC. I mentioned earlier that, leading up to US Nats this season, Wagner and Gracie Gold are the so-called "sweethearts" of the US FS scene, just as Shawn Johnson was for gymnastics in Beijing in 2008. They are beautiful, young, and talented, with a knack for presentation, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they were the two chosen to represent America at 2013 Worlds.

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    I agree the two faves and flaves of the day are Wagner and Goldie. But if Gold bombs at her next Grand Prix the honeymoon and marriage may be over. Gold kind of blew it at Skate Canada and got passed by Osmond which was and is a surprise.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Skater Boy View Post
    I agree the two faves and flaves of the day are Wagner and Goldie. But if Gold bombs at her next Grand Prix the honeymoon and marriage may be over. Gold kind of blew it at Skate Canada and got passed by Osmond which was and is a surprise.
    People who saw Gold in warmup said that she looked as good as ever. It was pretty clear that nerves got the better of her, which shouldn't happen again now that she has a taste of how things work at the senior international level.

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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports...5408673.column

    My comments (originally posted in the other thread):

    Nagasu is still very much in the picture. I disagree with him here. (If there is anyone currently in the mix that I have the least amount of confidence in, it is Czisny.) Gao is wait-and-see.
    Why nobody tells about Angela Wang?
    She was the best of US Ladies at JGP Events. Her jumps now are about Gold's level. If she will take place in Senior Events, she will obtain high "Senior" PCS, about Gao's. She has some problems, of course. But she has time - Olympics (and National where skaters will qualify to Olympics) will be more than for an year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    People who saw Gold in warmup said that she looked as good as ever. It was pretty clear that nerves got the better of her, which shouldn't happen again now that she has a taste of how things work at the senior international level.
    Didn't she have this taste at WTT?

    We will see at next two days how skates Nagasu and for a week how skates Gold now.

  9. #294
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    R.D., I think she already has, if her SA marks mean anything. True, she was scored by an international team of judges, but there was definitely some hometown advantage in scoring her a 127+ in the FS, just as Kaetlyn Osmond had in SC. I mentioned earlier that, leading up to US Nats this season, Wagner and Gracie Gold are the so-called "sweethearts" of the US FS scene, just as Shawn Johnson was for gymnastics in Beijing in 2008. They are beautiful, young, and talented, with a knack for presentation, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they were the two chosen to represent America at 2013 Worlds.
    Ashley is definitely the "darling", no questions about it. But what's good about it is she's earned it: she had a good GP run last year, strong nationals, kicked *** at 4CC, strong worlds, strong Japan Open, strong Skate America...she's a strong skater and her record is showing she's a strong competitor. So if by chance she has an off night, which will happen eventually, she's earned the confidence of the federation to get a look-the-other-way pass because they know she's good for it. Additionally, she's earned the respect and favoritism of the international judges which isn't an easy task. She's receiving a significant hike in PCS and GOEs b/c she's one of the favorites and that's not something the USFSA will pass on. That's the reason they sent Alissa to worlds last year b/c even with a few mistakes her favor with the judges would help her out; obviously they weren't expecting the epic sized meltdown she had.

    So Ashley's spot is pretty much set. I'd say Gold was the clear 2nd but there a rather large asterisk next to her name now. She's not really proving herself to be a reliable competitor so far this season but she has time to change that. If she has a strong showing at COR and then nationals, she'll more than likely be the first choice for that second spot. However, if by chance Christina has a strong showing at her next event and nationals, or Mirai does well at COC and nationals, I think the decision will be tougher. Christina and Mirai are far better all-around skaters than Gracie is, so it would come down to sending the best overall pick.

    I don't see Alissa or Caroline being in the mix. Agnes is a bit of a wildcard too...as far as juniors go, the most promising one is Angela Wang. I seriously doubt they'd send her to senior worlds but she's a lock for junior worlds at this point...she's another great technician like Gracie but she's got a lot of what Gracie lacks in terms of presentation, artistry, interpretation, etc.

    Nationals is going to be crazy this year, that's for sure...

  10. #295
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    Quote Originally Posted by AlexRus View Post
    Didn't she have this taste at WTT?

    We will see at next two days how skates Nagasu and for a week how skates Gold now.
    Not at the same level as at WTT and SLC. She was buried in media after every practice at SC which she had never before experienced with the spotlight on her very bright. At WTT, there were a number of other skaters that had a much brighter spotlight and SLC was fairly low key...

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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanatic View Post
    Additionally, she's earned the respect and favoritism of the international judges which isn't an easy task. She's receiving a significant hike in PCS and GOEs b/c she's one of the favorites and that's not something the USFSA will pass on.
    I think if you compare objectively and critically pre-John Nicks skating and post-John Nicks skating for Ashley, I'd say she DESERVES that hike in PCS and GOEs - she's become a much better SKATER and her elements are much more solid. She rarely has that two foot landing issue anymore (which will kill GOE, even for the best jumps from a height, distance and speed standpoint) which makes the judges appreciate the positive aspects of those elements. I know, I used to just shake my head because Ashley would do a really nice 3F (or 3Lo) with transitions going in, good height, distance, and speed, and then she'd tap that free toe on the landing negating all the positives I've just mentioned.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mskater93 View Post
    I think if you compare objectively and critically pre-John Nicks skating and post-John Nicks skating for Ashley, I'd say she DESERVES that hike in PCS and GOEs - she's become a much better SKATER and her elements are much more solid. She rarely has that two foot landing issue anymore (which will kill GOE, even for the best jumps from a height, distance and speed standpoint) which makes the judges appreciate the positive aspects of those elements. I know, I used to just shake my head because Ashley would do a really nice 3F (or 3Lo) with transitions going in, good height, distance, and speed, and then she'd tap that free toe on the landing negating all the positives I've just mentioned.
    ITA completely re: pre-John Nicks, post-John Nicks. Ashley has improved immensely. That frantic, nervous aura that used to characterize her skating is gone. Nicks has slowed her down and smoothed her out. The result is a calm confidence that really works with her skating. Her 2-foot problem isn't as rampant as it used to be, there's more control in her jumps...you can see the improvements.

    Reputation influences PCS. If you compare Ashley's PCS and GOEs from this time last season (when she debuted with Nicks and was still considered middle-of-the-pack) to what she got at SA, you can see the difference. In the FS she goes from mid to low 50s last year to low 60s this year...it's a +5 point jump. She's presenting her programs better, she's staying on her feet, she's selling the program...it's a justifiable hike in score IMO. The point is even if a skater is great they don't always get the marks they are due until the judges take notice of them. Ashley's consistent strong performances have forced the judges to take notice of her and give her the scores she's due.

    I think it's wonderful because she's earned it! When a skater goes out and earns those marks on merit it's much more respectable than someone getting a great score/winning based on reputation. The plus side for reputation scoring is that when the skater has an off night, they'll get the leg up...a few mistakes in one performance can be overlooked. It becomes a problem when a skater continues to get high scores even when they're making multiple mistakes performance after performance.

  13. #298
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    Ah, I understand your point quite a bit better now. Initially I thought perhaps you were implying that she got a boost due to reputation as US Champion versus that she deserves it. FWIW, I see being US Champion as agreeing HIGHLY with Ashley - her confidence and delivery seemed to jump BIG TIME after she put together a solid short at Nationals, finally, and it was really apparent watching TV/internet for 4CC, Worlds, WTT, JO, SKAM to me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mskater93 View Post
    Ah, I understand your point quite a bit better now. Initially I thought perhaps you were implying that she got a boost due to reputation as US Champion versus that she deserves it. FWIW, I see being US Champion as agreeing HIGHLY with Ashley - her confidence and delivery seemed to jump BIG TIME after she put together a solid short at Nationals, finally, and it was really apparent watching TV/internet for 4CC, Worlds, WTT, JO, SKAM to me.
    No, no, that's not what I meant at all. Glad to clear that up!

    Being the champ definitely agrees with her and like I said, she's earned it so those marks are well deserved. Everyone else carried the title like a heavy burden but she's embraced it and it's boosting her confidence and her scores. Being the US champ/medalist doesn't count for squat if you skate like crap (ref. Alissa in 2009 and last year). But being the US champ and skating like a champion will get you a lot of respect and the scores will reflect it.

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    That's the reason they sent Alissa to worlds last year b/c even with a few mistakes her favor with the judges would help her out; obviously they weren't expecting the epic sized meltdown she had.
    ...and hopefully they never, ever send her again.


    The plus side for reputation scoring is that when the skater has an off night, they'll get the leg up...a few mistakes in one performance can be overlooked. It becomes a problem when a skater continues to get high scores even when they're making multiple mistakes performance after performance.
    Is there EVER a "plus side" for rep scoring??

    Rep scoring should NOT exist. Only one thing should factor into the score and that's how the skater performed THAT NIGHT. It happens too often at US Nationals I feel...

    Otherwise, why bother to hold a competition? Just have a coronation and send the medals out by mail
    Last edited by R.D.; 11-01-2012 at 02:21 PM.

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