This Hersh article was posted in the Flatt thread, but it is relevant here because it refers to the US ladies program as a whole, and I'd like to keep the other thread about Flatt's injury specifically:
My comments (originally posted in the other thread):
Nagasu is still very much in the picture. I disagree with him here. (If there is anyone currently in the mix that I have the least amount of confidence in, it is Czisny.) Gao is wait-and-see.
I'm still exercising caution when talking about Wagner- I STILL think she's far from a done deal. Maybe it's pessimism on my part, or seeing the ups and downs (and injuries!) of so many skaters before her- but...you know, if she happens to not do so well at TEB, what's everyone going to think? Just food for thought
Responding to a comment posted by "drivingmissdaisy" in the Flatt thread:
I think this leads to another question: will Wagner become the USFS new "darling"? By "darling" I mean will she benefit from high PCS, generous UR/GOE calls, etc. like Flatt & Czisny did for several years? If so, you might be right about her making the team even with a so-so performance.I think Ashley is a safe bet to make 2013 Worlds. She has done enough since last year's Nationals (4CC, Worlds, SA) to get a spot even if she bombs at Nationals. Even when she gets nervous, she has the ability to at least lands jumps on 2 feet, and her PCS is high enough now to compensate for the errors. Two girls would have to have the skate of their lives in both the SP and the LP, and Ashley would have to completely bomb, for her not to finish in the top 2. And then the USFSA would have to look past her great recent results to put those 2 girls on the World team. I don't see all of those things happening.
Last edited by R.D.; 10-31-2012 at 10:42 AM.
I agree the two faves and flaves of the day are Wagner and Goldie. But if Gold bombs at her next Grand Prix the honeymoon and marriage may be over. Gold kind of blew it at Skate Canada and got passed by Osmond which was and is a surprise.
She was the best of US Ladies at JGP Events. Her jumps now are about Gold's level. If she will take place in Senior Events, she will obtain high "Senior" PCS, about Gao's. She has some problems, of course. But she has time - Olympics (and National where skaters will qualify to Olympics) will be more than for an year.
So Ashley's spot is pretty much set. I'd say Gold was the clear 2nd but there a rather large asterisk next to her name now. She's not really proving herself to be a reliable competitor so far this season but she has time to change that. If she has a strong showing at COR and then nationals, she'll more than likely be the first choice for that second spot. However, if by chance Christina has a strong showing at her next event and nationals, or Mirai does well at COC and nationals, I think the decision will be tougher. Christina and Mirai are far better all-around skaters than Gracie is, so it would come down to sending the best overall pick.
I don't see Alissa or Caroline being in the mix. Agnes is a bit of a wildcard too...as far as juniors go, the most promising one is Angela Wang. I seriously doubt they'd send her to senior worlds but she's a lock for junior worlds at this point...she's another great technician like Gracie but she's got a lot of what Gracie lacks in terms of presentation, artistry, interpretation, etc.
Nationals is going to be crazy this year, that's for sure...
Reputation influences PCS. If you compare Ashley's PCS and GOEs from this time last season (when she debuted with Nicks and was still considered middle-of-the-pack) to what she got at SA, you can see the difference. In the FS she goes from mid to low 50s last year to low 60s this year...it's a +5 point jump. She's presenting her programs better, she's staying on her feet, she's selling the program...it's a justifiable hike in score IMO. The point is even if a skater is great they don't always get the marks they are due until the judges take notice of them. Ashley's consistent strong performances have forced the judges to take notice of her and give her the scores she's due.
I think it's wonderful because she's earned it! When a skater goes out and earns those marks on merit it's much more respectable than someone getting a great score/winning based on reputation. The plus side for reputation scoring is that when the skater has an off night, they'll get the leg up...a few mistakes in one performance can be overlooked. It becomes a problem when a skater continues to get high scores even when they're making multiple mistakes performance after performance.
Ah, I understand your point quite a bit better now. Initially I thought perhaps you were implying that she got a boost due to reputation as US Champion versus that she deserves it. FWIW, I see being US Champion as agreeing HIGHLY with Ashley - her confidence and delivery seemed to jump BIG TIME after she put together a solid short at Nationals, finally, and it was really apparent watching TV/internet for 4CC, Worlds, WTT, JO, SKAM to me.
Being the champ definitely agrees with her and like I said, she's earned it so those marks are well deserved. Everyone else carried the title like a heavy burden but she's embraced it and it's boosting her confidence and her scores. Being the US champ/medalist doesn't count for squat if you skate like crap (ref. Alissa in 2009 and last year). But being the US champ and skating like a champion will get you a lot of respect and the scores will reflect it.
...and hopefully they never, ever send her again.That's the reason they sent Alissa to worlds last year b/c even with a few mistakes her favor with the judges would help her out; obviously they weren't expecting the epic sized meltdown she had.
Is there EVER a "plus side" for rep scoring??The plus side for reputation scoring is that when the skater has an off night, they'll get the leg up...a few mistakes in one performance can be overlooked. It becomes a problem when a skater continues to get high scores even when they're making multiple mistakes performance after performance.
Rep scoring should NOT exist. Only one thing should factor into the score and that's how the skater performed THAT NIGHT. It happens too often at US Nationals I feel...
Otherwise, why bother to hold a competition? Just have a coronation and send the medals out by mail
Last edited by R.D.; 11-01-2012 at 02:21 PM.