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Thread: State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

  1. #331
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    If she misses 2014, that means she will have gone 6 years without winning a national championship (assuming she doesn't win this year) and 4 years without making Worlds (if she doesn't win silver this year). I don't think that's a recipe for extending a career beyond 2014.

    tell that to Miss Wagner, who, after bombing at 2008 worlds, didn't make it again for 4 years. She was never higher than 3rd at nationals before this year. Heck, she wasn't even on the national podium in 2011!

    But Nagasu has to be willing to take risks & embrace the unknown, like Wagner (and Czisny for that matter) did in turning things around. She will need to make a serious move in order to fix her problems and emerge as The Contender.

  2. #332
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    I thought Mirai did pretty well at Cup of China. She is on track to contend for the silver medal at U.S. Nationals, IMHO.

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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    Well Alissa continued despite being a favorite to make both the 2006 and 2010 Olympic teams and missing them, only winning her first National title in 2009, and not making it to Worlds for the first time in 2007, then not again until 2009. So if she was inspired to continue all these years there's no saying Mirai couldn't do the same.
    I see your and RD's point. I just question her motivation and willingness to work hard to get back to somewhere she's already been.

  4. #334
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    I thought Mirai did pretty well at Cup of China. She is on track to contend for the silver medal at U.S. Nationals, IMHO.
    Thing about Nagasu is we won't see her again UNTIL Nationals, so it's tough (for me) to say. Had she been credited with at least a couple more of those jumps, she would have won a medal. Like I said above, I think she's in Wild Card territory. Not too sure what to expect from her.

    We'll be seeing Zawadzki's debut in Russia this weekend, along with second showings from Gold and C. Zhang. At least for the latter two we should know what trajectory they're on and folks can begin to think about their early predictions for the Nationals.

  5. #335
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    Well Alissa continued despite being a favorite to make both the 2006 and 2010 Olympic teams and missing them, only winning her first National title in 2009, and not making it to Worlds for the first time in 2007, then not again until 2009. So if she was inspired to continue all these years there's no saying Mirai couldn't do the same.
    Don't know about 2006, but 2010, she definitely wasn't a factor. Nobody forgot what she did in 2009 W then. Her PCS were terrible the entire season, just to make sure she's not near the podium.

    In 2010, the sure bet was Flatt. The other would be either Sasha or Mirai. Ashley was a wild card.

  6. #336
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    I just question [Nagasu's] motivation and willingness to work hard to get back to somewhere she's already been.
    Aha! That's a key difference right there. Wagner and Czisny are motivated, I'm guessing, in part by the Olympics. Neither have been and would like to go. Nagasu, OTOH, has already been to the Olympics and just missed out on a medal- so unless she really wants an Olympic medal in Sochi I can understand perhaps a slight lack of motivation in comparison.

    I saw a bit of determination in her at COC, though. I think she'll be fine.

    In 2010, the sure bet was Flatt. The other would be either Sasha or Mirai. Ashley was a wild card.
    Yes, Flatt was all but a sure thing. But I actually had Wagner and Nagasu as the primary contenders and Cohen as the wild card...

  7. #337
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanatic View Post
    Ashley is definitely the "darling", no questions about it. But what's good about it is she's earned it: she had a good GP run last year, strong nationals, kicked *** at 4CC, strong worlds, strong Japan Open, strong Skate America...she's a strong skater and her record is showing she's a strong competitor. So if by chance she has an off night, which will happen eventually, she's earned the confidence of the federation to get a look-the-other-way pass because they know she's good for it. Additionally, she's earned the respect and favoritism of the international judges which isn't an easy task. She's receiving a significant hike in PCS and GOEs b/c she's one of the favorites and that's not something the USFSA will pass on. That's the reason they sent Alissa to worlds last year b/c even with a few mistakes her favor with the judges would help her out; obviously they weren't expecting the epic sized meltdown she had.

    So Ashley's spot is pretty much set. I'd say Gold was the clear 2nd but there a rather large asterisk next to her name now. She's not really proving herself to be a reliable competitor so far this season but she has time to change that. If she has a strong showing at COR and then nationals, she'll more than likely be the first choice for that second spot. However, if by chance Christina has a strong showing at her next event and nationals, or Mirai does well at COC and nationals, I think the decision will be tougher. Christina and Mirai are far better all-around skaters than Gracie is, so it would come down to sending the best overall pick.

    I don't see Alissa or Caroline being in the mix. Agnes is a bit of a wildcard too...as far as juniors go, the most promising one is Angela Wang. I seriously doubt they'd send her to senior worlds but she's a lock for junior worlds at this point...she's another great technician like Gracie but she's got a lot of what Gracie lacks in terms of presentation, artistry, interpretation, etc.

    Nationals is going to be crazy this year, that's for sure...
    You're absolutely correct about Ashley's stellar season last year. It's great that the US has a clear leader now, who can be relied on to turn out clean programs nearly all of the time, and the USFSA wouldn't just give her those benefits . I'm just wondering how she'll stack up at Nats when the pressure will be on to repeat her first place finish.

    Give Gracie some time. She's only been to one major int'l competition as a senior and, as we saw, it wasn't that she lacked the ability. If she can overcome her pre-program jitters, I'm thinking we'll see the same consistent, reliable star who wowed the junior judges; she's still my prediction for that second Worlds spot. I need to watch more of Mirai before I pass judgement on her, but I don't think that Christina is better than Gracie, at all. She lacks both the consistency and the support from the federation, and overall, she possesses very little of a "wow-factor" to set her apart from the rest of the field. Her medal at SA was very, very surprising and hinged mainly on Sotnikova's mistakes.

    I would also count out Alissa (injury), Caroline (consistency and general unknownness), and Agnes (same reasons as Caroline), but after Osmond's win at SC, I've been a little more cautious about dismissing skaters. We've yet to see Agnes or Alissa perform at their GP events.

    Early, early, early predictions for Nats:

    1. Ashley Wagner
    2. Gracie Gold or Mirai Nagasu
    3. Gracie Gold or Mirai Nagasu
    4. Alissa Czisny
    5. Christina Gao
    6. Caroline Zhang
    Last edited by ForeverFish; 11-05-2012 at 09:14 PM.

  8. #338
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    What does everybody think about the chances of Caroline Zhang?

  9. #339
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reginald View Post
    What does everybody think about the chances of Caroline Zhang?
    More on that after her appearance at Cup of Russia this weekend

  10. #340
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    More on that after her appearance at Cup of Russia this weekend
    Agreed, but I'm not betting on her.

  11. #341
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    You're absolutely correct about Ashley's stellar season last year. It's great that the US has a clear leader now, who can be relied on to turn out clean programs nearly all of the time, and the USFSA wouldn't just give her those benefits . I'm just wondering how she'll stack up at Nats when the pressure will be on to repeat her first place finish.

    Give Gracie some time. She's only been to one major int'l competition as a senior and, as we saw, it wasn't that she lacked the ability. If she can overcome her pre-program jitters, I'm thinking we'll see the same consistent, reliable star who wowed the junior judges; she's still my prediction for that second Worlds spot. I need to watch more of Mirai before I pass judgement on her, but I don't think that Christina is better than Gracie, at all. She lacks both the consistency and the support from the federation, and overall, she possesses very little of a "wow-factor" to set her apart from the rest of the field. Her medal at SA was very, very surprising and hinged mainly on Sotnikova's mistakes.

    I would also count out Alissa (injury), Caroline (consistency and general unknownness), and Agnes (same reasons as Caroline), but after Osmond's win at SC, I've been a little more cautious about dismissing skaters. We've yet to see Agnes or Alissa perform at their GP events.

    Early, early, early predictions for Nats:

    1. Ashley Wagner
    2. Gracie Gold or Mirai Nagasu
    3. Gracie Gold or Mirai Nagasu
    4. Alissa Czisny
    5. Christina Gao
    6. Caroline Zhang
    Ouch! Poor Christina if she finishes fifth for the fourth year in a row. I think she has it in her to move up this year, though. She had a presence and a confidence at Skate America that I had not seen in her before.

    As for the others, I think Gold and Nagasu will be contenders for medals along with Gao and perhaps Zawadski. I think we may also see one or two of the young skaters move up into the top six or so. I have absolutely no idea what Czisny will be able to do, and I don't see Zhang improving enough to make in impact unless a lot of skaters go splat. However, over the last many years, a lot of skaters have gone splat, so you never know.

  12. #342
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    Early, early, early predictions for Nats:

    1. Ashley Wagner
    2. Gracie Gold or Mirai Nagasu
    3. Gracie Gold or Mirai Nagasu
    4. Alissa Czisny
    5. Christina Gao
    6. Caroline Zhang
    I'd put Agnes and Gracie 2-3, Mirai and Christina 4-5, and Alissa and Caroline 6-7. I'd add Angela but first year seniors seem to never do well at Nationals, even when they are hyped.

  13. #343
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    Angela Wang is NOT a first year senior. She was 8th at 2012 US Nationals as a Senior (16th in SP and 6th in FS).

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    And Gracie is a first year senior, so ????

  15. #345
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    I'd put Agnes and Gracie 2-3, Mirai and Christina 4-5, and Alissa and Caroline 6-7. I'd add Angela but first year seniors seem to never do well at Nationals, even when they are hyped.
    Gracie IS a first-year senior, but she's been prepared ever since Junior Nats and Worlds to get on that Nats podium (I believe she actually said top-six, but I have little doubt that she'll medal). Only a disaster of the likes of SC will prevent her from taking silver or bronze. I put Mirai in front of Agnes, but both of them can be unpredictable, and Agnes took bronze last season.

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