State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

^ Absolutely right. History will not be on her side, and she will be tested. Remember, the GP is hardly a good indicator of how the 2nd half of the season will turn out. Wagner's doing well now, but can she keep it up? Gold started out meh; will she improve?

Let's wait for NHK - Nagasu and Zawadzki get a 2nd shot. Neither has been impressive so far, but will that change? Stay tuned.

I'm not ready to declare Wagner a shoo-in for the nat'l title...there'll just be too many factors working against her. NO ONE of the American bunch has been able to defend.

I have to say I am impressed with Wagner and she looks smooth, confident, well trained - I can see gold - world and olympic in her future unless Yuna gets her act together. i tis still early but I am optimistic she has the goods to win. She's not overly special but she has the speed and power to win.

R.D. said:

^ Absolutely right. History will not be on her side, and she will be tested. Remember, the GP is hardly a good indicator of how the 2nd half of the season will turn out. Wagner's doing well now, but can she keep it up? Gold started out meh; will she improve?

Let's wait for NHK - Nagasu and Zawadzki get a 2nd shot. Neither has been impressive so far, but will that change? Stay tuned.

I'm not ready to declare Wagner a shoo-in for the nat'l title...there'll just be too many factors working against her. NO ONE of the American bunch has been able to defend.

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In fairness, RD, you're never ready to declare anyone a shoo-in. I'm convinced that you'll still be hedging your bets after the podium ceremonies!

ImaginaryPogue said:

In fairness, RD, you're never ready to declare anyone a shoo-in. I'm convinced that you'll still be hedging your bets after the podium ceremonies!

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Podium ceremony means nothing. See: 1994

Wow, what a performance by Ashley Wagner at TEB. It electrified me--took my breath away! And this despite the fact that I was never a big fan of Ashley in the past! But the improvement she's made the last two seasons is nothing short of remarkable.

For the first time in such a long time, we have a lady WHO LOOKS LIKE THE AMERICAN CHAMPION. Being the American champion once stood for so much in this sport. Just remember the names--Fleming, Lynn, Hamill, Sumners, Thomas, Trenary, Yamaguchi, Kerrigan, Kwan, Lipinski, Hughes--and what they stood for. When you were American champion, it once meant you had the best program in the world, or one of the best; well choreographed, well trained, well presented. You had beautiful spirals, solid spins, great presentation overall, every detail accounted for. You had probably the best costume in the competition, snow-white skates, perfect hair and makeup by the standards of the times. You were polished, you were impressive, you were the class of the field.

It has been so long, so painfully long for American fans, since we had a lady of that caliber. A lady who presented herself like a champion and skated like a champion. And finally, we have it again. That's what Ashley is skating like now. Simply as an American fan, it is a beautiful thing to see.

I'm very proud of Christina too. Another wonderful long program from her! She is a truly a different skater this year, so lovely! Very happy for her. After so many years of mediocrity, to see our ladies doing this well is simply amazing.

R.D. said:

History will not be on her side...

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Still, the U.S. is in better shape than we have been in a long time.

On the other hand, historically speaking, we don't have Tenley Albright and Carol Heiss, Debi Thomas and Tiffany Chin, Jill trenary and Holly Cook, Kristi Yamaguch - Tonya Harding - Nancy Kerrigan, Tara Lipinski and Michelle Kwan, Michelle Kwan and Sarah Hughes, or Kimmie Meissner and Sasha Cohen.

eyria said:

For the first time in such a long time, we have a lady WHO LOOKS LIKE THE AMERICAN CHAMPION. Being the American champion once stood for so much in this sport. Just remember the names--Fleming, Lynn, Hamill, Sumners, Thomas, Trenary, Yamaguchi, Kerrigan, Kwan, Lipinski, Hughes--and what they stood for.

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Hughes never won. But I agree Ashley looks stronger than any of the recent champions since Kwan. It is nice to watch her skate because you are pretty confident she isn't going to have a total meltdown out there.

drivingmissdaisy said:

Hughes never won. But I agree Ashley looks stronger than any of the recent champions since Kwan. It is nice to watch her skate because you are pretty confident she isn't going to have a total meltdown out there.

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I have to agree--Sarah Hughes doesn't belong in that group. The only title she ever won besides the Olympics was Skate Canada. Let's see how Ashley does at World's before adding her to the list. But if she keeps skating like she did in the GP so far, she will be a contender for sure.

eyria said:

It has been so long, so painfully long for American fans, since we had a lady of that caliber. A lady who presented herself like a champion and skated like a champion. And finally, we have it again. That's what Ashley is skating like now. Simply as an American fan, it is a beautiful thing to see.

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Mathman said:

Still, the U.S. is in better shape than we have been in a long time.

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I agree...but until she delivers for the US and brings back a world medal (like all great American champions used to do), this is all just smoke.


And yes - historically they have come in pairs. Wagner has stepped up, yes; but who's gonna help her?

FWIW some data to mull over. I did not include skaters that are not skating at the senior level (Barbie Long), did not qualify (Nina Jiang) or injured (Rachael Flatt). Also Samantha Cesario does not have a second FS since she withdrew.

American Ladies scores in the JGP/GP:

Ashley Wagner 190.63 (TEB)
Ashley Wagner 188.37 (SA)
Gracie Gold 175.03 (COR)
Christina Gao 174.25 (SA)
Agnes Zawadzki 166.61 (COR)
Christina Gao 164.71 (TEB)
Mirai Nagasu 163.46 (COC)
Angela Wang 162.65 (JGP Croatia)
Hannah Miller 158.52 (JGP Austria)
Samantha Cesario 157.72 (JGP Austria)
Leah Keiser 156.33 (JGP Turkey)
---------------------------------------------median
Courtney Hicks 153.77 (JGP USA)
Hannah Miller 153.21 (JGP Croatia)
Gracie Gold 151.57 (SC)
Angela Wang 150.40 (JGP USA)
Caroline Zhang 149.87 (SC)
Kiri Baga 142.22 (JGP USA)
Courtney Hicks 141.38 (JGP Slovenia)
Leah Keiser 141.15 (JGP Germany)
Vanessa Lam 140.89 (JGP-France)
Caroline Zhang 138.21 (COR)
Ashley Cain 136.51 (JGP-France)


Free skate scores

Ashley Wagner 127.76 (SA)
Ashley Wagner 127.54 (TEB)
Christina Gao 117.62 (SA)
Gracie Gold 112.87 (COR)
Christina Gao 112.16 (TEB)
Agnes Zadwadzki 106.43 (COR)
Angela Wang 105.69 (JGP USA)
Leah Keiser 105.63 (JGP Turkey)
Angela Wang 104.18 (JGP Croatia)
Mirai Nagasu 103.70 (COC)
Samantha Cesario 103.34 (JGP Austria) ---------------------------------------median score
Hannah Miller 103.05 (JGP Austria)
Courtney Hicks 102.41 (JGP USA)
Hannah Miller 101.88 (JGP Croatia)
Gracie Gold 99.38 (SC)
Caroline Zhang 96.90 (SC)
Courtney Hicks 94.95 (JGP Slovenia)
Kiri Baga 94.42 (JGP USA)
Vanessa Lam 92.49 (JGP France)
Caroline Zhang 92.06 (COR)
Leah Keiser 85.01 (JGP Germany)
Ashley Cain 85.20 (JGP France)

Short program
Ashley Wagner 63.09 (TEB)
Gracie Gold 62.16 (COR)
Ashley Wagner 60.61 (SA)
Agnes Zadwadzki 60.18 (COR)
Mirai Nagasu 59.76 (COC)
Angela Wang 58.47 (JGP Croatia)
Christina Gao 56.63 (SA)
Hannah Miller 55.47 (JGP Austria)
Leah Keiser 55.14 (JGP Germany)
Samantha Cesario 54.38 (JGP Austria)
-------------------------------- median
Caroline Zhang 52.97 (SC)
Christina Gao 52.55 (TEB)
Gracie Gold 52.19 (SC)
Courtney Hicks 51.36 (JGP USA)
Hannah Miller 51.33 (JGP Croatia)
Ashley Cain 51.31 (JGP France)
Leah Keiser 50.70 (JGP Turkey)
Vanessa Lam 48.80 (JGP France)
Kiri Baga 47.80 (JGP USA)
Courtney Hicks 46.63 (JGP Slovenia)
Caroline Zhang 46.15 (COR)
Angela Wang 44.71 (JGP USA)

Ashley Wagner 127.76 (SA)
Ashley Wagner 127.54 (TEB)

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Aha! Home court judging!

Mathman said:

Aha! Home court judging!

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Arguably her TEB performance was BETTER than what she put out at Skate America..

I'm curious to see if the U.S. judges are going to give her a 6-8 point PCS cushion (over both the SP and LP) that the international judges do over her closest American counterparts. Usually the top girls are scored closer than that at Nationals.

Mathman said:

Aha! Home court judging!

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Except that Ashley's PCS at SA (63.93) was lower than her PCS at TEB (64.63) :scratch:

Her TES was higher at SA than TEB too...She lost some levels at TEB, hence the lower TES score.

R.D. said:

I agree...but until she delivers for the US and brings back a world medal (like all great American champions used to do), this is all just smoke.

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Agreed. Now, I'd be really impressed if she could win the GPF against the field (then we're talking world title contender, though the last time someone won a world title without winning a world medal first was way back in 2007, Miki Ando). At this point, Nationals is all but guaranteed.

I applaud Ashley for her fantastic performance at TEB, but I wouldn't even consider comparing her to past great American ladies until she has at _least_ a world medal. Honestly, even then, I'd have to think about it. Because Kimmie won a world title but I wouldn't consider her a great American ladies champion. Ashley's got fire in her performance and she's good/consistent with her jumps, spins, and footwork. But while her technical content allows her to win given what the rest of the field is delivering, she could still challenge herself more in that area, like with a 3/3 in the FS and the SP. Tara, Michelle, Kristi, and Sarah went for 3/3s regularly in their prime, on their way to big titles. I'd like to see Ashley do the same--and yes, I know that she is planning on adding it later in the season. But Gracie Gold and Agnes Zawadzki have them now, and I'd think the best American lady should be leading the way...

drivingmissdaisy said:

I'm curious to see if the U.S. judges are going to give her a 6-8 point PCS cushion (over both the SP and LP) that the international judges do over her closest American counterparts.

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I think they will. Ashley is way better than the field this year. I think it will be a coronation, with a side show for second place.

Back in the days when Nationals was the Kwan Show/Kwan Coronation- even then you had Cohen make things interesting now and again, topping MK in the SP (although she could never close the deal).

I don't doubt Wagner will feel the pressure of defending her title. A pressure that no one has been able to overcome in the past 30 years. In fact, if turns out to be the slam dunk you all think it will be, this girl truly has nerves of steel. Reminiscent of MK indeed (save Olympics, of course).

Mathman said:

I think they will. Ashley is way better than the field this year. I think it will be a coronation, with a side show for second place.

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stop jinxing my girl! are you trying for the part of GS's version of Scott Hamilton?!

Mathman said:

I think they will. Ashley is way better than the field this year. I think it will be a coronation, with a side show for second place.

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Hey Mathman - hopefully so! I've noticed this season that when Ashley skated (SA and TEB so far), I'm relaxed. I looked at her face as she approached each jump and I felt no fear :>) Now, some may snicker or sneer, but I've been watching FS for a long time and I've become pretty good at noticing that certain look of terror on a skater's face (as a long time fan of Alyssa's I must admit). This year, so far, Ashley IMO, has approached her jumps with a look of determination, not fear or anxiety. I have no prediction for what may happen at the GPF or Nationals (or even Worlds), but I do know that I've really enjoyed watching Ashley skate with determination and grace, a mighty good combination so far.

Reminder that Ashley Wagner will perform on the Today show tomorrow (Tue) morning.
Her appearance was booked long before TEB, but the timing turns out to be great for those who can't get enough after her win in France.

Ashley Wagner ‏@AshWagner2010